Week 5 NFL Survivor Final Update: Have A Low Stress Friday

October 5, 2012 - by David Hess

The past couple weeks have conditioned us to expect a ton of new developments to discuss in these Friday updates. But this week there’s not a lot on the docket. We’re happy to report that you can glide on through to the weekend without worrying much about your Survivor pool.

Of course, now that I’ve typed that sentence, I’m sure quarterbacks at practices across the country are suddenly feeling shoulder pain, and we’ll be bombarded with breaking news tomorrow morning.

While I keep my fingers crossed in hopes that doesn’t happen, you take a look at the updated data table. As a reminder, this helps us answer the three main questions we ask ourselves about each team when making our Survivor pick.

1. How likely are they to win? (Vegas Line at -110 payout odds & TR Odds from our NFL win picks page)

2. How popular is this team? (Average public Pick % from sites like Yahoo! and OfficeFootballPool)

3. Should I save this team for later? (Future Value: the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75%+ from our NFL Survivor Tool, modified by some manual fudges for Week 17 and special-case weeks. Near Value: a modified version of Future Value that assesses near term value and is more relevant to players in very small pools)

Week 5 NFL Survivor Decision Factors (Updated)

Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. They’re also separated into rough tiers. If two teams are in the same tier, you may want to choose among them based on which pros and cons are more important to your particular situation.

Team	Opponent	Line	Money Line	TR Odds	Pick %	Future Val	Near Val
Tier 1: Top Options
San Francisco	vs Buffalo	-9.5	-435 / +373	78%	24%	1.5	1.1
Green Bay	at Indianapolis	-7.0	-292 / +258	74%	12%	1.5	1.4
Tier 2: Worth A Look
Houston	at NY Jets	-8.0	-360 / +314	74%	4%	6.5	5.6
Minnesota	vs Tennessee	-5.5	-230 / +205	65%	7%	0.5	1.1
Chicago	at Jacksonville	-5.0	-224 / +200	67%	4%	1.5	2.8
NY Giants	vs Cleveland	-8.5	-360 / +314	74%	38%	1.5	2.5
Baltimore	at Kansas City	-6.0	-252 / +224	62%	3%	3.0	4.1
AVOID
New England	vs Denver	-6.5	-285 / +252	69%	1%	7.0	8.0
New Orleans	vs San Diego	-3.5	-193 / +173	63%	1%	1.0	0.3
Pittsburgh	vs Philadelphia	-3.5	-170 / +153	65%	1%	2.0	2.3
Carolina	vs Seattle	-2.5	-138 / +125	61%	1%	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	vs Miami	-3.0	-164 / +148	56%	4%	1.0	0.8
Atlanta	at Washington	-3.0	-154 / +139	55%	0%	5.5	5.1

Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), Dallas Cowboys (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN)

What Has Changed Since Wednesday?

Not much. While I was away, Tom had to put a lot of thought into his Friday post because there were big shifts in the Survivor landscape late in the week, with line moves and injury reports.

This week, however, the top lines and odds for the top choices have stayed fairly static, so there’s not much to discuss. Here are the most important changes from the last couple days:

Chicago Bears — The Bears look riskier today than they did a couple days ago. Their consensus spread has dropped from -6 to -5, their money line has fallen from -245 to -220, and our TR Odds projection has moved from 70% to 67%. Three percent may not sound like a lot, but when you’re talking about a team that was already a risky pick to begin with, it can make a significant difference. Because of Chicago’s increased risk profile, we no longer consider Chicago a top option.

San Francisco 49ers — Thursday night, the St. Louis Rams beat the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals by two touchdowns, and moved over 0.500 for the first time since 2006. That makes San Francisco’s Week 10 matchup against the Rams seem like a bit less of a gimme. Again, this isn’t a huge change, but it does make us a little less averse to using the 49ers this week, as there is now slightly less benefit to saving them. San Fran is still a very good pick.

That’s really about it. The money line for the New England Patriots is up a bit, and the spread and odds for the Cincinnati Bengals have both dropped some. But neither the Patriots nor Bengals were good picks to begin with, and they still aren’t.

So, this week’s update is an easy one.

Official Week 5 NFL Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers over Buffalo Bills

Nothing has changed that would give us any reason to move off of our original Wednesday pick, so we‘re sticking with the Niners. If anything, we’re a bit more comfortable with the pick, because the risky-yet-tempting Chicago alternative looks less attractive, and because San Francisco’s future value seems to have fallen ever so slightly.

Green Bay is the next best alternative to San Francisco, as the Packers are the only team close to the 49ers in win odds that doesn’t have either a ton of future value (like Houston) or a huge mass of people picking them (like New York).

As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.