NFL Week 4 Preview: Comparing The New Starting Quarterbacks + 3 Big Games (2019)

September 23, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

Six new NFL quarterbacks started this past weekend, all on the road, and it represented a sea change for several organizations.

Perhaps more interesting for users of TeamRankings, five of the six teams starting new QB’s covered the spread, and three won their game outright.

Altogether, it was a pretty successful week for the teams breaking in new quarterbacks. Dig a little deeper, though, and not every situation looks promising. Let’s take a look at all six new quarterback performances and what it could mean for the future of their teams.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (32-31 Win at Tampa Bay)

The Daniel Jones era as the Giants’ new quarterback started off in spectacular fashion. Jones led a second-half comeback against Tampa Bay, coming from down 28-10 at halftime. It was the largest Giants comeback from a halftime deficit since 1949 (just a few years before Eli Manning took over at quarterback).

His performance wasn’t flawless, but it showcased exactly what the team has been missing by sticking with Manning. First, he was the team’s leading rusher with 28 yards (running back Saquon Barkley was injured in the first half; more on that below). He ran for two touchdowns (as many quarterback rushing touchdowns as the franchise has had in the last four years combined), including the late fourth quarter run up the middle that gave the Giants the lead.

He also passed for 336 yards in his first start. Jones was under pressure all day and handled it with a veteran’s maturity.

The Giants still have major defensive issues, but if Jones is able to sustain a similar level of play, their offense could surprise a lot of people, especially once Golden Tate’s suspension ends in two weeks and Barkley returns from injury.

Kyle Allen, Carolina Panthers (38-20 Win at Arizona)

The Panthers ruled out Cam Newton late last week, turning to undrafted 23-year-old Kyle Allen. Allen’s performance showed just how much Cam Newton playing at less than perfect health had likely impacted the offense.

You could have made a lot of money last week betting that Kyle Allen would have the best offensive numbers of any quarterback in Week 3. Allen passed for 261 yards on 26 attempts, and threw four touchdowns. Newton had thrown zero touchdowns in his last four starts before this performance by Allen.

Allen had already shown well in Week 17 last year against the Saints. He has now started his NFL career with six touchdown passes, no interceptions, and averaging over 9.0 yards per attempt. Head coach Ron Rivera needs to be prepared for quarterback questions this week, given how poorly the offense had previously looked with a banged-up Newton. Keep in mind, though, that the Arizona Cardinals look like a bottom-five pass defense. Things will get tougher for Allen.

The short-term play for Rivera seems to be to continue with Allen so long as he is playing well, and insist that Cam Newton get his foot fully healthy before returning. Allen’s performance gives them that luxury, at least for another week. As we’ve seen recently, when Newton cannot run and is not healthy, he’s not the same player.

Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints (Win 33-27 at Seattle)

We obsess about the impact of quarterbacks, and while they are the single most important position on the field, the impact of “everything else combined” matters more. Yesterday’s Saints-Seahawks game was a great example. Russell Wilson was brilliant while Teddy Bridgewater was merely solid. But the Saints got an early punt return touchdown and fumble return touchdown, and that was enough to get the road win.

Teddy Bridgewater plays like a non-mobile version of Alex Smith, a guy who can manage a game and get you wins if the supporting cast plays well. His final line of 19 of 27 for 177 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs was a very Bridgewater line. He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in exactly half of his career starts in the NFL. He has thrown 31 touchdown passes in 30 starts. Alvin Kamara stepped up and turned some short Bridgewater passes into big plays, but otherwise the offensive performance was pretty average.

It was a big win for New Orleans, but Seattle did have 515 yards of offense to 265 for the Saints, so it wasn’t a great indicator for the short-term future while Brees is out.

Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers (24-20 Loss at San Francisco)

Pittsburgh came up with an inspired defensive performance and almost pulled the upset in San Francisco. The way the game played out, though, doesn’t appear to bode well for the future.

Mason Rudolph finished 14 of 27 for 174 yards, with two touchdown passes and an interception. Those numbers may not look terrible, but they mask an uneven performance. Wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster turned a short pass into a 76-yard touchdown for the biggest play of the day. Rudolph only threw for five first downs, and his 14 completions were the second-fewest of any quarterback that started this week.

The Steelers benefited from four early 49ers turnovers, but the offense could not capitalize. Pittsburgh ended the game at +3 in turnovers but still lost. Since 1990, the Pittsburgh Steelers are now 62-1 in games where they were +3 or better in turnovers. Yes, the last time they lost a game with a turnover margin this good was in 1985 against Dan Marino’s Dolphins.

Through the first three weeks of the 2019 season, two teams have been out-gained by at least 150 yards in every matchup: Miami and Pittsburgh. That’s yet another statistical indicator that this could be a rough year in Pittsburgh, because they aren’t going to average being +3 in turnovers every week.

With that said, the 49ers defense also looks sneakily good so far this year. Next week’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals will be a good indicator of whether Rudolph has a future so bright that he can guide the Steelers right.

Josh Rosen, Miami Dolphins (31-6 Loss at Dallas Cowboys)

Josh Rosen got his first official start for the Dolphins, but this is just a bad football team. That makes it very difficult to say how good Rosen could be.

He finished with only 200 yards passing on 39 attempts, but had several nice passes dropped by his receivers. He could have easily had a couple of touchdown throws if his supporting cast played better. Rosen could very well start games for two different franchises that “earn” the first overall pick in consecutive years.

The Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, lost again by 25 points. They have now been outscored by 117 points so far this year, and moved past the 1961 Oakland Raiders by having the worst point differential after three games of any team going back to 1940. The chase is on to see if this Dolphins team can challenge for the title of worst NFL team ever.

Luke Falk, New York Jets (30-14 Loss at New England)

The Jets are a terrible offensive football team without Sam Darnold at quarterback. Luke Falk finished 12 of 22 for 98 yards, was sacked five times, and threw an interception to boot. If you count in the negative impact of turnovers and sacks, the Jets probably would have been better off running fullback dives on every play.

Somehow, they scored 14 points off of a special teams fumble by New England, and a pick-six thrown by Patriots backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. So far this season, the 33 points scored by the Jets understates how bad the offense is, because that total includes three defensive touchdowns and a safety.

Other Key News Heading Into Week 4

• Giants RB Saquon Barkley has a high ankle sprain and was in a walking boot on the sideline for the second half. Expect him to miss some games.
• Denver has no sacks and no turnovers forced through three games.
• Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians likely botched the end of the game after the Bucs got the ball to the Giants’ 9-yard line with 13 seconds left and one timeout remaining, trailing by one point. They took a delay of game penalty, which Arians actually stated aloud that he did on purpose, then took a loss of two yards to move the ball to the left hash. Rookie kicker Matt Gay, who had missed two extra points earlier in the game, then missed the potential game-winning kick.
• The AFC North — Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh — has three combined wins this season. And none of those wins (against Miami, New York Jets, and Arizona) have come against a team that has won a game so far.
• Houston is now the favorite to win the AFC South at 37% our 2019 NFL standings projections following their big win at the Chargers, while the Indianapolis Colts are now the sixth-most likely AFC Playoff team (46% chance) after beating Atlanta to get to 2-1.
• The New Orleans Saints moved back into the lead in the NFC South projections (49% chance of winning the division), as they are the only team to get to 2-1 after Tampa Bay and Atlanta both lost on Sunday.
• The two best statistical starts to an NFL season by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era? Patrick Mahomes 2018 and Patrick Mahomes 2019. He’s thrown for 1,195 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions to start the year, including games against Jacksonville and Baltimore.

Early Look-Ahead to Week 4 Key Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

The Thursday night matchup this week has the Eagles in an early tough spot after falling to 1-2 and now going to Green Bay (3-0). The Eagles came into the year with high expectations to return to their 2017 form, but so far that hasn’t been the case; injuries to starting wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson have not helped. Green Bay, meanwhile, has been great on defense but the offense has been unimpressive. The Packers are ahead of only the Dolphins, Steelers, Jets, and Bears in yards per game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions

The Lions are an unexpected 2-0-1 to start the year. The Chiefs are off to a 3-0 start, which is more expected. The Lions will look to add a third straight victory over a 2018 playoff team, after beating the Chargers and Eagles in the last two weeks. Patrick Mahomes is averaging nearly 400 yards passing per game.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The 3-0 Patriots play the 3-0 Bills in a game that will determine whether the AFC East will have much intrigue this year. This will be the first big test for Buffalo to see whether they are a legitimate playoff contender or not. New England has yet to allow an offensive touchdown all season.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 4, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 4 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

 

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