December 5, 2012 - by Matt Woods
Week 14 NFL Pick’em Strategy: Colts Ripe for an Upset?
Note Friday 12/7, 4pm ET: The line for San Diego-Pittsburgh didn’t come in until after our picks locked, so you may notice that the pick/confidence looks off. The Steelers are 9.5-point favorites, and we’d recommend taking them to win, most likely with a high confidence. For the ATS pick, our models like San Diego as a toss-up pick to cover and 80%+ of Yahoo! users taking Pitt -9.5. Consequently, in most cases we’d recommend going with the Chargers in ATS pools since there seems to be a lot of value there.
Titans RB Chris Johnson is seven yards shy of 1,000 on the season, and has his highest yards/carry average (4.9) since 2009, which is good for 6th best in the NFL.
While Andrew Luck has helped the Colts exceed all reasonable expectations this year (we currently give Indianapolis 77.5% odds to make the NFL playoffs), the run defense has been a weak spot. In fact, the Colts rank 30th in the NFL in opponent yards/rush attempt (4.8).
Our models do see Indianapolis as favorites, with adjusted win odds of 60%+, but they could be vulnerable on Sunday. As less than 5% of the public has picked Tennessee to win outright, the Titans are a tempting choice for those needing an upset pick to make up ground in the standings.
Where We Stand After Week 13
Here is where our game winner pick’em strategies currently stand on ESPN (not confidence points based) heading into Week 14. All three strategies rose in the standings last week, and our Conservative strategy continues to be a highlight, ranking in the top 5% nationally on ESPN:
- Conservative: 95.1st percentile (+1.3 from last week)
- Aggressive: 88.3rd percentile (+4.0)
- Very Aggressive: 84.8th percentile (+7.7)
Our against the spread picks enjoyed a similarly impressive week overall. All three strategies improved in Week 13, and the Conservative and Aggressive strategies now both rank in the top 10% nationally on ESPN. Most impressively, the Conservative strategy continues to rank in the top 1% nationally:
- Conservative: 99.4th percentile (+1.1 from last week)
- Aggressive: 90.7th percentile (+4.9)
- Very Aggressive: 77.3rd percentile (+2.0)
(Keep in mind that we “flip” picks if the point spread listed on ESPN is significantly different than the point spread listed on our site, as explained in the Against The Spread Pick’em Strategy section below.)
Week 13 Advice Recap
Last week there were no odds-on contrarian picks to recommend, though there were several solid upset picks. Our favorite upset pick was Washington over the New York Giants, and the Redskins came through Monday night edging the Giants 17-16. You know your rookie season is going well when even your fumbles go for touchdowns.
We also pointed out two other upset picks that provided high value for those needing to roll the dice. Pittsburgh and its 38 year old back up QB, Charlie Batch (39 today), came back to top the Ravens in overtime. Similarly, Kansas City beat Carolina as Brady Quinn had by far his best game of the season.
Finally, while we only recommended taking a chance on a long shot upset in the most dire situations, we should note that Tennessee fell short in their upset bid over Houston.
Our Week 14 NFL Office Pool Picks
Here’s where you can find our computer generated picks for NFL office pools:
Note: If you notice any mis-graded games on the point spread pick’em picks page, sorry about that. There’s an error and we’re working on fixing it.
OK, time for our handy Game Winner table, which summarizes a few teams that look like they could be smart picks for people that need to take some risks. It’s based on our detailed pick’em analysis page.
Week 14 Value Pick Highlights: Game Winners
|Team||Opponent||Adj Win Odds||Public %||Value||Spread||Value Indicator|
|Washington||vs Baltimore||54.6%||45%||9.6%||-1.0||Odds-On Contrarian|
|Tennessee||at Indianapolis||36.5%||4%||32.5%||+5.0||High Risk Upset|
|Carolina||vs Atlanta||37.7%||7%||30.7%||+3.5||High Risk Upset|
|Detroit||at Green Bay||27.1%||5%||22.1%||+7.0||Long Shot Upset|
|Kansas City||at Cleveland||29.9%||13%||16.9%||+6.5||Long Shot Upset|
For the second straight week, Washington represents the best pool pick relative to risk and public imbalance. The Redskins are our only odds-on contrarian pick for Week 14, which occurs when a majority of the public picks against our (and in this case Vegas’s) projected winner. Our models give Washington about 55% win odds while only about 45% of the public has picked them.
Though the Redskins don’t provide a tremendous amount of value, it’s always helpful to be able to pick against the public without having to take a risk on an underdog with less than 50% win odds. Consequently, we see Washington as a solid pick for any sized pool.
There are no low risk upset picks this week, but for those needing to take some chances this late in the season both Tennessee and Carolina provide considerable value. We give both about a 35%-40% chance to win, yet more than 90% of the public is picking against each team. If it’s time to take chances based on your pool standing, both of these upsets are worth picking.
Finally, while both Detroit and Kansas City provide solid value as long shot upset picks, we wouldn’t recommend picking either unless you’re almost out of contention and really need to pull out all the stops to make up ground. In confidence pools, though, you may want to lower the value of their opponents, Green Bay and Cleveland, unless you’re already defending a good lead.
Week 14 Against The Spread Pick’em Strategy
A lot of point spread based pick’em contests publish the games and associated point spreads at the beginning of the week, but give you until Sunday to submit your picks. This means a great strategy is to look for a game where the official spread in your contest is different from the current spread offered at most sports books, and take the “free points.”
In general, the edge you get from those free points is going to be stronger than any lean you have on who is favored to cover, especially if the difference is more than one point.
Below are the biggest line movements from earlier in the week, which could indicate “free points” opportunities in your pool. Highlights can also be found on on the right side of our NFL odds page.
Point Spread Movement Highlights
|Team||Opponent||Opening Line||Current Line||Movement|
|Cleveland||vs Kansas City||-4.5||-6.5||2.0|
|Houston||at New England||+5.0||+3.0||2.0|
|New Orleans||at New York Giants||+6.0||+4.5||1.5|
The other major source of value in ATS pick’ems is finding teams that a huge majority of your opponents are picking, and then taking the other side. Most Vegas point spreads are pretty efficient, so if a large majority of your opponents are picking a certain team to beat the spread, that team is probably overvalued. And that means you’ve got roughly a 50/50 shot of pulling ahead of a huge chunk of your opponents by picking against them, no matter what your personal opinion is of that game.
Here are five teams where the lines for the Yahoo! ATS pick’em are the within half a point of those found at Pinnacle sports book on Wednesday afternoon (or better), yet only about 35% or less of the public is selecting them to cover:
Point Spread Pick Imbalance Highlights
|Team||Opponent||Public Pick%||TR Cover Odds||Current Spread|
|Kansas City||at Cleveland||34%||52%||+6.5|
|Detroit||at Green Bay||34%||51%||+7.0|
If the lines in your pick’em contest are the same or better as those shown above, and if you think your competitors will be picking teams in roughly the same manner as the general public (e.g., in line with the Yahoo! contest picking trends), we’d recommend playing all five of these teams.
As always, please feel free to ask questions in the comment section below. We’ll do our best to answer as many as possible, and we look forward to a fun and interactive college football weekly pick’em advice column this season.