November 28, 2012 - by Matt Woods
The New York Giants rush defense has been less than stellar in 2012, and they currently rank 22nd in the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.4). Given the competition this week, that could spell trouble.
Washington has two explosive rookies in their backfield that rank in the top 13 of the NFL in yards per rush attempt. Last year’s Heisman trophy winning QB, Robert Griffin III, has continued his success at the professional level, and is currently tied for first in the NFL with 6.7 yards/carry.
While RG3 was a household name coming into the season, rookie RB Alfred Morris has been a revelation. Morris currently ranks 13th in the NFL in rush yards/carry with 4.7.
This rookie tandem appears to pose matchup problems for the Giants, and our models see this game and as virtual tossup. With more than 70% of the public picking New York, Washington provides significant value as an upset pick.
Here is where our game winner pick’em strategies currently stand on ESPN (not confidence points based) heading into Week 13. All three strategies more or less held their positions, and our Conservative strategy continues to be a highlight, ranking in the top 7% nationally on ESPN:
Our against the spread picks had an excellent week overall. After losing ground last week, two of the three strategies made significant improvement in Week 12. The Conservative strategy was 14-2 last week (with pick flips) and is now in the top 1% nationally on ESPN:
(Keep in mind that we “flip” picks if the point spread listed on ESPN is significantly different than the point spread listed on our site, as explained in the Against The Spread Pick’em Strategy section below.)
Last week there were three teams that our models favored to win while less than 50% of the public had picked them. Our favorite pick, the New York Giants, dominated Green Bay 38-10. Similarly, St. Louis cruised to a 14-point win over Arizona.
On the other hand, San Diego suffered a close 3-point overtime loss against Baltimore thanks mainly to some horrendous tackling and questionable spot on this 4th and 29 play.
For an upset pick we recommended Tampa Bay over Atlanta, but the Bucs fell 1-point short at home. We also noted that for riskier upsets, Detroit and Buffalo provided quite a bit of value, but both failed in their upset bids.
On the point spread side, we noted five picks in which 71% or more of the public was picking a particular side. The public had another strong showing last week, with four of the five covering and Houston-Detroit resulting in push.
Here’s where you can find our computer generated picks for NFL office pools:
OK, time for our handy Game Winner table, which summarizes a few teams that look like they could be smart picks for people that need to take some risks. It’s based on our detailed pick’em analysis page.
|Team||Opponent||Adj Win Odds||Public %||Value||Spread||Value Indicator|
|Washington||vs New York Giants||47.5%||28%||19.5%||+1.0||Low Risk Upset|
|Pittsburgh||at Baltimore||43.0%||8%||35.0%||--||High Risk Upset|
|Kansas City||vs Carolina||43.6%||21%||22.6%||+3.0||High Risk Upset|
|Tennessee||vs Houston||31.0%||4%||27.0%||+6.0||Long Shot Upset|
This week is a bit unusual in that there are no odds-on contrarian picks to recommend, which occur when a majority of the public picks against our (and often Vegas’s) projected winner.
Our models slightly favor Cleveland over Oakland as of publication time, while only 49.5% of the public has picked the Browns. However, we do not currently have a betting line for that game, which our models do consider. Consequently, we don’t have as much confidence in our models on this one. With the public seeing this game as a tossup, our models slightly favoring Cleveland, and some sports books slightly favoring Oakland, we just don’t see a lot of value here.
For those needing to roll the dice with an upset pick in order to make up some ground though, we do see some value this week.
We give Washington about a 50/50 shot to win, and Vegas has made the Redskins just a 1-point underdog. Only 28% of the public, though, has picked Washington to win. Consequently, unless you’re already at the top of the charts in a smaller pool, the Redskins are probably worth a play.
For riskier upset picks, both Pittsburgh (especially) and Kansas City provide a decent amount of value. We give both a 40%+ chance to win, while a small percentage of the public has picked either. Even though we don’t have a line from Pinnacle Sports for Pittsburgh-Baltimore at posting time, our model win odds seem to match fairly well with other sports book lines, and it’s probably worth taking advantage of that extreme public imbalance if you need to make picks and are looking for an upset.
Finally, while Tennessee provides value as an upset pick as 96% of the public as picked Houston, we wouldn’t recommend picking the Titans unless you’re almost out of contention and really need to pull out all the stops to make up ground. They’re a longshot. In confidence pools, though, you may want to lower the value of Houston unless you’re already defending a good lead.
A lot of point spread based pick’em contests publish the games and associated point spreads at the beginning of the week, but give you until Sunday to submit your picks. This means a great strategy is to look for a game where the official spread in your contest is different from the current spread offered at most sports books, and take the “free points.”
In general, the edge you get from those free points is going to be stronger than any lean you have on who is favored to cover, especially if the difference is more than one point.
Below are the biggest line movements from earlier in the week, which could indicate “free points” opportunities in your pool. Highlights can also be found on on the right side of our NFL odds page.
|Team||Opponent||Opening Line||Current Line||Movement|
|Cincinnati||at San Diego||+1.0||-1.0||2.0|
The other major source of value in ATS pick’ems is finding teams that a huge majority of your opponents are picking, and then taking the other side. Most Vegas point spreads are pretty efficient, so if a large majority of your opponents are picking a certain team to beat the spread, that team is probably overvalued. And that means you’ve got roughly a 50/50 shot of pulling ahead of a huge chunk of your opponents by picking against them, no matter what your personal opinion is of that game.
Here are five teams where the lines for the Yahoo! ATS pick’em are the within half a point of those found at Pinnacle sports book on Wednesday afternoon (or better), yet only about 30% or less of the public is selecting them to cover:
|Team||Opponent||Public Pick%||TR Cover Odds||Current Spread|
|St. Louis||vs San Francisco||26%||52%||+7.0|
|Kansas City||vs Carolina||28%||57%||+3.0|
If the lines in your pick’em contest are the same or better as those shown above, and if you think your competitors will be picking teams in roughly the same manner as the general public (e.g., in line with the Yahoo! contest picking trends), we’d recommend playing all five of these teams, three of which are at home this week.
As always, please feel free to ask questions in the comment section below. We’ll do our best to answer as many as possible, and we look forward to a fun and interactive college football weekly pick’em advice column this season.
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