Week 12 NFL Survivor Friday Update: Pats Roll, But Who’s Left?

posted in NFL, NFL Survivor Pools

Because of the Thanksgiving holiday and the fact that our official weekly Survivor pick already played on Turkey Day, this Friday update is going to be short and sweet.

Here’s what’s new since Wednesday’s original Week 12 Survivor advice post:

  • As our official pick of Week 12, the New England Patriots cruised to a 49-19 victory over the New York Jets, thanks to a turnover-fueled 35-point second quarter. So we get the benefit of watching Sunday’s games with no pressure. And with almost 80% surviving entries on either Cincinnati or Denver this week, if you took the Pats, you know who to root for: the mighty Raiders and the dominating Chiefs.
  • Ranking as probably our fourth best pick of the week as of Wednesday, the Cowboys were upset by the Redskins.
  • However, as of Friday, the Titans’ money line has now improved from -158 to -195, meaning that Tennessee is now the clear best of Wednesday’s listed Tier 2 pick options.
  • Pittsburgh’s money line has gotten substantially worse, and is now only -121 (from -154) on Pinnacle Sports. As a result, the Steelers are now a Tier 3 / AVOID.
  • Indianapolis’ odds have also gotten slightly worse. They’re not quite an AVOID yet, but Tennessee is clearly a better pick than the Colts now, as are probably several other of the Tier 2’s from Wednesday (besides Pittsburgh).
  • Several major sports books still have not posted betting odds for the Chicago vs. Minnesota game, and Chicago ranked as a likely Tier 1 pick as of Wednesday. According to SBRodds as of 5pm ET on Friday, Bears/Vikings is currently listed at only two sports books; Chicago is a 6.5 point favorite at BetOnline and a 5 point favorite at bwin. With only that information to go on, it’s risky to trust too much in it. If you’re still considering Chicago, your best option is to keep waiting and see where the lines end up once many sports books release. If you need to pick before then, and have the Bengals available, we’d go with Cincy due to the uncertainty.
We need to cut it off there today, but there’s plenty more detail about our rundown of all the Week 12 survivor options in the Wednesday post.
  • cbowling01

    Seven teams left. One took NE. Two will be on Denver, two Cincy, and one on Ten or Ind. Should I go Denver or Tenessee with such a small pool?

  • Brian

    20 teams left, all but 7 have the broncos everyone has the Bengals I can see just these two teams being used who I follow …I have taken cowboys Texans giants falcons raiders niners packers ravens pats. Thanks for the advice…

  • Brian

    Do I follow*

  • http://twitter.com/the_acylum Ace Woogie

    hey guys. me again! 4 guys left in the pool.. 1 guy hasn’t picked denver yet. anticipate him using denver this week. the other 2 will either go tennessee/indy as they’ve used den/cincy already. i’m considering taking indy or tennesee too to save Denver as they have massive future value. what are your thoughts on this strategy? was thinking indy or ten this week, dallas next week, denver in 14… thanks again in advance guys.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=5721756 Steph Pyle Simmons

    Hey David! I am one of 87 left of 2979. Big money pool!

    I have used GB, dallas, cin, NE,Giants,Oak,Bal,Det, Houston, Atl, SD, and Chi.

  • Chris

    With vig included here are the winning odds based on vegas lines for your teams as of now (they will actually be slightly less)

    Denver: 82.75%
    Tenn: 66.67%
    Indy: 58.69%
    Seattle: 58.33%

    Immediately I’d just rule out indy/sea.They are both more popular on Yahoo than Tenn and have lower win odds. Also sea def has more future value than
    either, and indy/ten are about the same.

    I’d say equity-wise your best bet is to take Tenn. I’d take them if I was in your position.

    Just up to you if you want to roll with a 67% favorite or play the safe route.

  • Chris

    what about cincy?
    how do your remaining options look compared to the rest?
    if you have better options down the road i’d play it safe and go with den (or cincy if you have them available)

  • rcc11

    ok…whats the current situation with Carolina vs Philly…
    The pointspreadmoved fro CAR + 1 to +3…Philly has been pretty bad, rookie QB, McKoy hurt

    Should i consider them…

  • http://twitter.com/the_acylum Ace Woogie

    wow i dont know how i wasn’t able to remember cincy. we are the only team that has used Cincy. so i’m sure 2 of em will take Cincy for sure. 1 will probably take Denver. or if the guy is feeling conservative w/ denver then 3 on cincinatti. doubt it though, up against some very conservative teams. so i’m expect 2 to take CIN and 1 to take DEN. very tempted to take tennesee or indy to preserve the denver advantage.

  • http://twitter.com/the_acylum Ace Woogie

    the remaining options don’t look good.. we still have DEN, NYG, NO. Dallas to wrap up the “strong” teams. and just scrubs the rest of the way. also PITs have not used as well. they’re all in the same boat, except that one guy still has DEN as i mentioned earlier

  • Dan

    go with denver this week, you can use seattle at home against miami in 2 weeks. Denver is a lock

  • Dan

    u can take SF at STL week 13

  • Frankie G

    No such thing as a lock. Just ask the folks who took Patriots week 2.

  • Dan

    you know what I mean, obviously nothing is a lock, but denver is by far the best pick this week

  • Chris

    You seem to judge best pick by who is most likely to win. That is not the point of this entire site.

  • Dan

    how do u find a best pick? Which team is most likely to lose? Find another team thats available that you have more confidence in

  • Chris

    what? in your first post you said 2 used cincy already, then here you say it’s possible all 3 might take cincy.

    confused.

    if that’s a possibility, i’d consider denver. if you think it’s a low possibility or want to save them, i’d be taking tenn over ind for sure.

  • Chris

    read this: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-12-nfl-survivor-strategy-the-lesser-of-three-evils

    Best pick is a combination of best win odds, least popular picked, and least future value.

    Denver is being picked by everyone and their dog this week. So if you take someone else and win, while everyone else in your pool (all 500 of them) pick Den and they somehow lose, you just won your pool that had 501 people left in it.

  • Dan

    yes but she has used the other good picks for this week already. You cant just go against the best pick hoping that you get a toss-up game correct. I.E. Bills/Colts Ten/Jax

  • Dan

    5 weeks remain, no reason to take a shot at a miracle now.

  • Dan

    Denver doesnt have another “easy” matchup until week 16. It may be too late then. Dont want to leave maybe the best team in the NFL un-used

  • Chris

    when do you take a shot at the miracle? at the end? or do you just play it safe and split the pool with 89 people?

    not only does taking Tenn, with 65% odds, give you a chance to really increase your equity this week, it also gives you great value for other weeks.

  • Dan

    If you are really confident the Titans will win, go for it. I just dont think they are a good enough football team to trust them to win a divisional game on the road against a Jax team much better with Henne. We can disagree, Good Luck Tomorrow

  • Chris

    I don’t know much about football. I only know the lines put out by oddsmakers and I trust them as it’s a fairly efficient market. I’m not confident they will win. But I am confident given the information available they are his most profitable pick long-term. I’m on Cincy tomorrow. Good luck to you as well!

  • http://twitter.com/the_acylum Ace Woogie

    sorry ithought they had used cincy already, they did not.

  • St. Peter

    Cutler is a go….do you still feel good about CHI? Line at -6.

  • EddieSpaghetti

    DAL was my best ranked team available as of Thursday morning, so I went with them. Ouch.

  • Chris

    Hope no one listened to me. 😮

  • theo4

    Nice job Dave advocating the Titans. They f’ing blow!!!

    Thanks for the help when I really needed it… Garbage system…

  • theo4

    Effing bullshet advocating the Titans over the Colts…

    Always do my own picks but was stuck this week and this shet site post Titans are a good pick… FU! just cost me a lot of cash with your garbage suggestion

  • chris p

    actually the problem is not with this site, its with your own picks, which left you needing to reach for titans or Indy this week. if you actually followed this site from the beginning you would have had NE available this week and cruised.

  • Chris

    Why did you pick the Titans if you think they ‘ f’ing blow ‘?

    If you are so good why do you rely on Dave’s advice? Take it for what it is, be grateful that he offers it for free, and follow the suggestions at your own risk.

    No one is forcing you to pick them. He also had 4 teams ranked above the Titans. Why didn’t you pick one of them? If you had none of them left, why didn’t you contemplate this dilemma when making your prior picks?

  • Frankie G

    I hope you were the idiot that took TENN in my pool !!!! See ya crybaby.

  • Dabuttah

    HAHAHAHA! “Always do my own picks but was stuck this week”….you got what you deserve. You sir are one Grade A Jackass.

  • thedude

    Any updates to Carolina’s win %? Carolina has had close losses against many above average teams. Sure, Rivera is a poor head coach, but the Eagles are in a tailspin, and with Vick & McCoy out, are starting rookies at QB, RB, and recent makeshift additions at other major positions on offense…

  • Caleb

    Classic survivor mistake. Taking a mediocre division road favorite.

  • Chris

    Only like 58% based on odds from pinnacle.

  • thedude

    Yeah, I saw that. I think Vegas is still being too conservative on that line. Though it’s been widening the past few days on most sportsbooks.

  • Bob Sanders

    SHould be an interesting week 13 pick. Looks like the Lions might be the play, which is scary!

  • Bob Sanders

    Oh, and ignore these people who are criticizing you David. All your Tier 1 picks won. Thanks for the great insight on a week to week basis!

  • Frankie G

    Lot of folks will be on SF & BUF. Denver or Detroit will most likely be the play. For all the bashers, this site has picked 29 winners in a row.

  • Dave

    Whoa bro, relax. You are the one to blame since you didn’t have any of the top tier teams left. Plan better next year and you might have a shot. And I hope you don’t come back to this site.

  • Frank_Elways

    Week 13 seems to be the crux for my teams. Not sure whether to go aggressive with Buffalo or similar team, or break out the big guns with NE or SF, exposing me to problems in week 16. Maybe one of each?

  • rcc22

    yeah…week 13 looks rough for me…got Buf/Carolina/Cleveland /Dallas or NY Giants…left…

    im leaning Dallas or Buffalo…want to save NY Giants…any advice…

  • Frankie G

    I am predicting massive casualties week 13. Bring out the BAZOOKA if you got any ammunition left. I am going with Denver and Detroit.

  • Frankie G

    Go with Dallas. Lot of folks will be on Buffalo. Save some bullets (NYG) for later.

  • gus

    I HAVE BUFFALO,DETROIT,BALTIMORE,CAROLINA LEFT.
    WAS LEANING BUFFALO BUT IF BIG BEN IS OUT ,I THINK BALTY CAN GET IT DONE @ HOME
    ANY THOUGHTS?
    THANKS

  • Dave

    Week 13 doesn’t look that bad to me – seems like there are a bunch of teams available to pick. I have DEN, DAL, CAR, CLE, DET, etc to choose from. Looking ahead, week 15 looks like the week a lot of survivor pools might end. Unless you have HOU or CIN available, it will likely be time to pick a small favorite (MIA or SEA) and white knuckle it the whole day.

  • Chris

    week 15 – TEN vs nyj, WAS @ cle, OAK vs kc, MIA vs jac

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

    Alright, 5 weeks to go!

    Prediction time. The 3 best unused teams from the official picks would seem to be Denver, Carolina, and Detroit.

    Denver still has tons of future value. Carolina team rankings stats are still at odds with Vegas stats. Detroit has little future value, but an 11% drop in win odds vs. Denver. Tough call. I’m guessing Dave will take Denver this week – valuing the guaranteed safety this week vs uncertainty of future weeks.

    If Dallas was still available, I’m thinking that would be the pick. Relatively high win odds, unpopular, and little future value.

  • Bob Sanders

    Really? You feel confident taking a Detroit team that has nothing to play for against a good Colts team? You feel confident taking an overrated Cowboys team that plays a division rival? You feel confident taking a Panthers team at any point this year? And you feel confident in a Colt McCoy led Browns team?
    I’m nervous as heck for this week.

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

    After stats updated, Carolina’s win odds plummeted – and now more in line with Vegas.

  • Tyson

    I think Buffalo will be the pick this week. I’m starting to wonder about the Yahoo pick percentages though, I expected a lot more people to be on Buffalo, but right now they are only at 13%.

  • Frank_Elways

    No one trusts buffalo even at -6. Maybe a lot of teams still have at least one of SF, GB, NE or DEN, so the picks might be spread around to those teams, plus some DET if the cupboard is really bare.

  • Dave

    I still have DAL available, so I’ll likely go with them – PHI looks awful. As for the official TR pick, I’m thinking DEN too. Maybe DET if he wants to save DEN, but DET seems a little risky. Main week that will be survivor carnage is week 15 – the pickings are slim that week.

  • Dave

    Yea, among the teams I listed above, the only teams I feel good about are DAL and DEN. I was almost considering taking CAR for week 12, though they are very volatile. CLE might have trouble now that Weeden is out. DET vs IND could go either way. I need to save DEN for week 16 most likely. So likely I’ll be on DAL. After watching PHI last night, they look awful. If DAL loses, that’s how it goes, though I bet they win it.

  • Tyson

    Yeah, that’s a good point. I’m trying to find a way to pick BUF because I want to save DEN for next week if I can.

    There are 10 left in my pool and I’m trying to predict their choices. If you had DAL and BUF both available, is there any reason someone (smart or dumb) would take BUF over DAL?

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

    If you believe the #s on this site, DAL is currently at 72% win odds compared to BUF 66%. So you have 6% worse win odds with BUF. Likewise with Vegas odds. Neither team has any real future value, so that shouldn’t be much of a factor. Buffalo is also more popular than DAL, so DAL gets points for that. Based on this, DAL has the clear advantage.

    Just noticed the DAL odds recently shot up from -7 to -9. I’m guessing due to DeSean Jackson’s fractured ribs?

  • theo4

    Well Dave, was going to take Denver but per your column advice and tier of teams I took Tenn per the update on Friday that Tenn was more solid and the next best pick… Denver was ranked very low in your tier of teams…

    So yes it is my fault for listening to your crap advice and taking Tenn because I thought you knew more than I did. Obviously I was wrong about that…

    I still have another team left in the pool but now it’s 5 left and I have 1 team left not 2…

    I always read your column and find it good with the picks but last week hyping Tenn as the strongest pick left was ridiculous…

  • http://www.teamrankings.com TeamRankings.com

    theo4…first, that wasn’t Team Rankings Dave’s comment above, just to clarify. Second, what you’re doing here just isn’t cool. If you think the advice is crap, just leave.

  • Tyson

    Keep in mind I’m just trying to predict who my opponents will pick – they may not be as smart as you or I :)

    After more thought, I think anyone, sophisticated or simple-minded, would use DAL over BUF this week. I’m using BUF as the best option with no future value for the average Joe – since they have the biggest line and likely won’t be going off of TR%.

    So the question is, what will people who have the choice of DEN vs. BUF do? There are 4 people like that in my pool out of 9 – one of the 4 also has SF available. At this point, I am predicting 2 for DEN and 2 for BUF. Maybe even 1 DEN and 3 BUF/SF. I think these people have saved DEN for a reason and may continue to try to save DEN.

    Punch all these numbers into my spreadsheet (using Vegas odds), and it looks like the best play may be DET assuming nobody else picks DET.

    I’m also predicting the official pick for TR will be DET this week.

  • gus

    when does the official report come out?
    need to put my team in by 3 pm cst…have choices of buffalo-detroit-nyj-baltimore
    thanks

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess
  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hey, did not see this comment til now. Hope you went with Baltimore. … As an aside, why the early deadline? There’s not even a game tile like 30 hours after your deadline.

    http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/week-13-nfl-survivor-strategy-should-we-get-risky-now-or-later