Week 11 NFL Survivor Strategy: What To Do If You’ve Already Used The Big Favorites

posted in NFL, NFL Survivor Pools

Welcome to the Week 11 installment of our series of Survivor advice columns, where we use a data-driven strategy to get an edge in NFL Survivor contests. This post includes analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models and other relevant data.

This discussion below is also meant to complement our Survivor Predictor tool, which provides a grid view of win odds predictions by week, from now until the end of the season. This presentation of prediction data will help you quickly grasp the current week’s best Survivor pick options, and will explain our logic in making our official pick.

Week 10 Survivor Strategy Review

Man, these NFC West at NFC East games have really been treating us well! Our main advice in our Week 10 NFL Survivor Strategy post for people in larger pools was to avoid the Eagles, as they were being picked by over half of Yahoo contestants.

Just as in Week 5 — when the Giants lost at home to the Seahawks despite being the biggest Vegas favorite of the week — our strategy of rooting for the shocking upset paid off, as Philadelphia managed to collapse in the fourth quarter once again.

The real key to last week, though, was the fact that we had saved Green Bay all year, and were able to pick them in Week 10. With the Eagles, Ravens, and Chargers all losing as favorites of 6.5 points or more, the Packers were the only “safe” choice that actually came through. If we’d have used Green Bay earlier, we might have ended up picking Baltimore, and thus been tossed (actually, if you look at our top 5 picks list from last week, our next highest un-picked team was Miami, so I guess we would have been safe anyway, if we could have stomached backing the Dolphins).

With all the upsets, it was a fantastic week for those who managed to survive — 80% of the Yahoo contestants were kicked out, and now only 1,749 people remain… less than the weekly readership of this column.

Week 11 Survivor Decision Factors

Time for the heart of our post, the table showing the factors that influence our decision:

TeamOpponentSpreadTR OddsYahoo! Pick %Future ValNotes
New Englandvs Kansas City-14.583%38.4%2PICKED
Green Bayvs Tampa Bay-14.084%6.1%3PICKED (good otherwise)
San Franciscovs Arizona-9.583%25.8%2
Dallas@ Washington-9.063%3.5%0PICKED
Detroitvs Carolina-7.087%12.3%0last chance?
Baltimorevs Cincinnati-7.072%1.0%2
NY Jets@ Denver-6.071%4.1%0
Atlantavs Tennessee-6.064%1.5%0
NY Giantsvs Philadelphia-4.566%0.7%1PICKED
Chicagovs San Diego-3.570%2.2%2
St Louisvs Seattle-1.058%0.2%0
Miamivs Buffalo-1.054%0.1%0
Oakland@ Minnesota-1.051%1.8%0
Clevelandvs Jacksonville-1.050%0.1%0

Future Val = the number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75% or greater, based on our NFL Survivor Tool.

Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (WIN), Pittsburgh Steelers (WIN), San Diego Chargers (WIN), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN), New England Patriots (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), New Orleans Saints (WIN), New York Giants (WIN), Dallas Cowboys* (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN)

*Our original official pick in Week 9 was the Oakland Raiders. However, we issued a an update to the post well in advance of Sunday morning that suggested readers switch to Dallas. Because Oakland lost while Dallas won, we feel that this series will be more useful going forward if we assume Dallas was our official pick.

Weighing the Options

New England Patriots (vs Kansas City Chiefs) — The Patriots are neck and neck with the Packers as the safest pick of the week, with both Vegas and our models in agreement. The problem is that they are also the most popular pick this week, and they’ll be a great choice in Week 13 when they host the Colts. They are a decent pick, but we’d rather choose somebody else and root for the upset.

Green Bay Packers (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)If you managed to survive last week without burning the Packers, now wouldn’t be the worst time to do so. They are basically even with New England as the safest pick of the week, but only 6% of the public is picking them. The one qualm we have is that they still have good value in weeks 14 through 17 (though they may be resting starters for a couple of those). So, if you’re in a small pool where going the full 17 weeks is unlikely, the Packers are the definitely best pick. If you might need them in three weeks, they’re still not bad.

San Francisco 49ers (vs Arizona Cardinals) — The 49ers are a big step below New England and Green Bay in terms of the Vegas line, though our TR win odds don’t agree. They are also the second most popular pick this week, plus will be valuable in Week 13 against the Rams. Their public pick rate (26%) isn’t enough lower than New England’s to justify the decrease in the line that you’ll have to put up with. We’d take either of the big favorites over them, but they’re still not a terrible choice.

Dallas Cowboys (@ Washington Redskins) — At first glance this looks good. Decently high line, no future value, only 3.5% of the public picking them. But our models are raising a big red flag here, putting their win odds at only 63%. We went back and took a look at the rest of the games this year where the Vegas line has been -9 or greater, yet our models have shown a TR win odds of 75% or less. The results are not pretty for the favorites:

WeekTeamOpponentSpreadTR OddsResult
10Philadelphiavs Arizona-10.575%Loss
9Philadelphiavs Chicago-972%Loss
8New Orleans@ St Louis-13.573%Loss
7Baltimore@ Jacksonville-966%Loss
4Philadelphiavs San Francisco-974%Loss
3New England@ Buffalo-974%Loss
3Philadelphiavs NY Giants-975%Loss
3Pittsburgh@ Indianapolis-10.572%Win (by 3)
3San Diegovs Kansas City-14.575%Win (by 3)
2NY Jetsvs Jacksonville-973%Win (by 29)
2Detroitvs Kansas City-975%Win (by 45)
2Green Bay@ Carolina-9.575%Win (by 7)

Now, we are definitely not saying that the Cowboys will lose. What we’re saying is that we don’t think this game is as safe as it looks on first glance. We’ve already picked the Cowboys, so it’s moot for us, but we’d probably try to find another option, if possible.

Detroit Lions (vs Carolina Panthers) — The Lions only have a line of -7, but our models see them as the most solid favorite of the week. That’s likely because Carolina is one of the more consistent teams in the NFL. They’re unlikely to play way over their heads and upset the Lions. Combine this optimistic opinion from our models with this possibly being your best chance to use Detroit, and the Lions are a pretty attractive choice. Yes, you’re taking a bit of a risk compared to New England or Green Bay, but you’ve likely already used those teams (as we have). They’re roughly as safe as San Francisco, yet less popular and with less future value. And they’re a safer pick than Dallas.

Baltimore Ravens (vs Cincinnati Bengals) — The Ravens are midway between Detroit and Dallas in terms of how safe of a pick Vegas and our models think they are. But they have much more future value, as they host the Colts in Week 14 and play the Browns twice in the last six weeks. There are definitely better options.

New York Jets (@ Denver Broncos) — The Jets are pretty similar to the Ravens, with the main differences being that New York is a bit more popular, but has less future value. We slightly prefer them to Baltimore, but they’re definitely a cut below Detroit or the big favorites.

Atlanta Falcons (vs Tennessee Titans) — The Falcons are a bit riskier than the Jets, but are a bit less popular, which basically evens out. As with all of these past few teams, there are definitely better choices out there.

Official Week 11 NFL Survivor Pick: Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers

This was a pretty easy choice, but that’s because we’ve already used Green Bay.

In our eyes, Green Bay is the best choice for people in small pools where you’re unlikely to still be playing in Week 17. That’s basically single-digit pools. If you’re in such a pool, but you’ve used Green Bay and still have New England left, then the Patriots are a good pick.

For people in medium and larger pools, saving Green Bay and getting a bit riskier with Detroit is definitely a viable option, and it’s what our official pick will be. However, the Lions do appear to be relatively popular for a team with such a small Vegas line. If you can see your pool pick percentages, and Detroit is being picked 5% to 10% more than San Francisco, then the 49ers are probably a better choice. And, of course, using Green bay now is a good move as well.

Here’s our ranking of the best options this week, for people in large pools:

1. Green Bay vs Tampa Bay (picked)
2. Detroit vs Carolina
3. New England vs Kansas City (picked)
4. San Francisco vs Arizona
5. Dallas @ Washington (picked)
6. NY Jets @ Denver
7. Atlanta vs Tennessee
8. Baltimore vs Cincinnati

We feel those top three are a good cut above the rest, but we’re listing more to help with people who may be handcuffed by their earlier picks. Our advice is to take one of those top three teams, if possible.

Of course, as always feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section.

  • Rick

    I am 1 of 2 players left in a pool 250.  Based on above….I have SF, Alt, Balt and Chicago available this week.  The other player has SF, Dallas, NYJ, Alt, Balt and Chicago available.  Top 3 for both of us are gone.  I think I am going to need Alt and Chicago in upcoming weeks if I survive this week.  Any doubts on taking SF given my situation.  Any other team to seriously consider.

  • Ryan

    Curious as to why you didn’t breakdown the Chicago – SD game. I see it as a very attractive option (given that GB and NE have already been picked). Does Chicago have a lot of future value?  

    I see that the Vegas spread is relatively close but the Power Rankings of these teams is very wide. 


  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Ryan, we didn’t break that game down because we don’t think it’s even worth considering. It’s as risky or riskier than any other game we mentioned, plus Chicago has some future value.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


  • Ruch66

    Hello, four people left I still have both the Lions and Pats left.  Who to play??

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Depends on who they have left. If 2 or 3 of them will be picking the Pats, then the Lions are better. If 0 or 1 will be picking the Pats, the Pats are better.

  • RW

    8 People Left… Alll have used Packers.  All have PATS and LIONS reamining… 3 of 8 Have used San Fran… Take San Fran?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    RW — Hard to say, the “correct” pick in your case will be highly dependent on who people actually choose. None of those three options would be too terrible. Mainly, you want to be avoid being on a team that half your pool chooses, so I guess SF would be the least likely for that to happen with.

  • Ruch66

    Thanks, just checked two of the three still have the Pats and Lions.  I still have both and the last guy only has the Lions.

  • Rick

    Thanks…didn’t think so.  You guys have gotten me this far though…..

  • Rick

    Thanks…didn’t think so.  You guys have gotten me this far though…..

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hey, it’s always smart to get a second opinion. :)

  • Clutch

    Hey –
    1st off great blog!  Ok, here’s our deal…Huge pool (7,000 plus).  23 entries left and we have 2 of them!  Here’s the catch: EACH ENTRY FROM THIS POINT ON MUSH PICK TWO TEAMS!
    1st entry: Used Jets, Chargers, Bucs, Pats, Steelers, Packers, Ravens, Saints, Dolphins, Cowboys

    2nd entry: Used Jets, Titans, Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, Saints, Giants, Cowboys, Dolphins, Packers

    What are you thoughts?  Any help is greatly appreciated!



  • Geddy1001

    Just wanted to say out of my two pools I was in, I won one and unfortunately, got booted in my last one last week because I had already GB (wish I had started following you guys a week sooner at the beginning of the season) and had to choose between PHI and BAL :) Choose PHI BUT the other folks pick either PHI or BAL so we actually get to split:)  Not too bad.  Just wanted to thank you guys for your analysis and willingness to answer our questions and comments.  See you next year!

  • Shane

    Hi David, love the column. I’m in a pool that started with 13,000 people and is down to 122 and somehow I still have THREE entries left. I’m going to use 1 on the lions, but I have already used the Lions on the other two. I thought about using Dallas with the other two, and saving the 49ers for week 13, but now I am reconsidering. If I burn the 49ers now, who do you like in week 13? What do you think is the best play this week?

    P.S. The people left in the pool are really smart and don’t post their picks until late Saturday night, so I have very little public pick data

    Thanks for all of your help this season!

  • Cory Fanasyteam

    So i made my HUGE leagues top 7 😀 problem is I have used the Packers, Patriots, Lions, and 49ers.

    So far, though it can change… the other 6 people have picked:
    2 on 49ers
    2 on Dallas
    1 on Lions
    1 hasnt picked yet

    I need to completely disregard future value as i already have some pretty good options for weeks 12-14 (balt, steelers, chicago, etc) who do i pick this week?!?!  Im torn between Dallas and the Jets at this point

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Clutch — So, it looks like your options for both entries are DET, SF, STL, BAL. For one, I’d go with the top two choices from our list: DET+SF. For the other, I’d probably go with BAL+DET or BAL+SF. The first one (with DET) is slightly riskier, but has more upside.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Geddy — Congrats! See you around.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Shane — Check out our Survivor Tool for ideas on who will be useful in Week 13 http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tools/survivor-predictor/ The Bears look pretty useful.

    Kind of hard for me to give you advice without knowing details. I assume you don’t have Green Bay or New England. If DET, DAL, and SF are your top three left from the list  gave in the article, I’d probably either split between all three, or go with DET+SF+SF. I would probably not go DET+DAL+DAL, because Dallas is the most likely to lose of those three teams.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Cory — Ooh, rough choice here, since neither are very safe. Given that 2 people have already chosen the Cowboys (and assuming they don’t change at the last minute), the numbers say you should go with the Jets, but it’s fairly close.

  • beck

    I am in a league that started with 1,200 people and now in the final 14 (thanks to Giants week 5 and Eagles last week).
    I have used Green Bay in week 10 which is why I am still alive, I have not used New England, SF, Ravens, Det., or Chicago yet.
    I was thinking going NE this week, ATl next, SF week 13 and Ravens week 14.
    Is NE the safe play this week? Top 3 get paid out pretty good pot.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yep, as we mentioned in the post, NE is a good play this week. Your plan for the next four weeks sounds good. Good luck!

  • Jeff

    Hi, thanks again for your great site and advice

  • Jeff

    Sorry, messed up.  Thanks for your help.  Pool of 900 and we’re 1 of 12.  We have SF, Chi, Balt and NE available for this week and for many reasons, going with either SF or NE.  9 of the 12 have SF available, but 3 have NE available and only 1 has GB.  Was going with SF to leave the valuable NE for a later day (week 13 or 16), but I’m going to assume that a good chunk of the remaining players will go with SF this week.  So, TR % about the same, NE more valuable later, but guessing most will go with SF this week.  My gut is with only 12 left, not to worry about the rest of the folks right now, save NE for a later day (by then, they won’t have NE left) and use SF before they wind up the division.  Thoughts??  Thanks.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    It sounds like your pool will be stacked on SF, compared to NE. Given that you have decent options available in week 13 (CHI/SF) & 16 (BAL), I’d go NE now.

    If you have a chance to make a safer AND less popular pick, without compromising your future weeks, I’d take it.

  • Steelers GO!!!

    Well the one pool where I was trying to survive as long as possible is done. Eagles lost obviously.

    All that remains is my second pool. There are now 15 people left, cause tons were eliminated last week. As a reminder, the pool started two weeks ago. I have picked New Orleans and Green Bay.

    Your recommendation?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Steelers — Basically impossible to know who your opponents will pick, which makes our analysis kind of moot. The whole concept here is to use the public pick % to your advantage.

    I would still try to stay away from teams that will be super popular, i.e. the Packers and Patriots. So maybe go Lions or 49ers. It’s a pretty rough estimate without more info.

  • Harv

    I am 1 of 4 remaining in a pool.  The other three are picking NE, Detroit, and NY Jets.  Out of your top recommended teams I have NE, SF, Det, and Balt remaining.  Do I go with NE or be different from everyone and take SF?  THANKS!!!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The math says that SF and NE are almost EXACTLY the same this week, in terms of immediate value. NE is safer, but SF counters that with the slight possibility of winning outright this week (if NE/DET/NYJ all lose). Since NE looks like a better option in almost every future week, I’d go with SF this week, and save NE.

  • Wile

    Thought you should know, although I am out of my pool, I kept tabs on this week. Pool was at 16 and ended. 2 took Baltimore. 1 took KC. 1 took SD.  11 took Philly. Although I regret not getting the Dallas update, I thought you’d like to know that your avoid Philly call was right on – just like avoid Giants (against Seattle) call.

    So nice job. Can’t wait for next year.

  • Thaddeus

    Hello again,

    Looking at this week in isolation, Detroit looks like the best option, but have a dilemma.  I have already used Baltimore, so I’m left without a good pick in week 14.  The Lions and Jets are currently the best two options for that week according to your chart.  Things could change by then, certainly, but ideally I’d like to have the Lions available since the jets don’t look too reliable.  Additionally, I certainly want to use San Francisco at some point, but it looks like this week and week 13 are the only chances (week 17 is a crap shoot since they could quite possibly be resting starters then).  Combined, SF looks more attractive this week.

    On the other hand, a large % of my pool has not picked Chicago yet, so maybe the Bears won’t be very attractive come week 13.  I’ve picked: Baltimore, Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Diego, & Tampa Bay.

    There were 92 left in my pool (11 picked the Jets, so now 81 left).  Picks this week so far are:
    Patriots: 22
    49ers: 16
    Jets: 11
    Lions: 8
    Falcons: 3
    Raiders: 2
    Ravens: 2
    Packers, Seahawks, Bears, Bills, Giants: 1
    No pick yet: 23 (including me)

    Here are the number of people who’d picked every team going into this week:
    Arizona Cardinals: 2
    Atlanta Falcons: 40
    Baltimore Ravens: 33
    Buffalo Bills: 7
    Carolina Panthers: 16
    Chicago Bears: 16
    Cincinnati Bengals: 19
    Cleveland Browns: 3
    Dallas Cowboys: 71
    Denver Broncos: 4
    Detroit Lions: 28
    Green Bay Packers: 75
    Houston Texans: 50
    Jacksonville Jaguars: 22
    Kansas City Chiefs: 2
    Miami Dolphins: 11
    Minnesota Vikings: 10
    N.Y. Giants: 54
    N.Y. Jets: 32
    New England Patriots: 26
    New Orleans Saints: 65
    Oakland Raiders: 14
    Philadelphia Eagles: 2
    Pittsburgh Steelers: 60
    San Diego Chargers: 53
    San Francisco 49ers: 32
    St. Louis Rams: 1
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 41
    Tennessee Titans: 24
    Washington Redskins: 6

    So, I’m thinking next week, will probably be mostly Cincinnati & Chicago, with some on Pittsburgh, Atlanta, & Carolina (fading Indy).  I will avoid Chicago on the road, so if Cincy is over picked, I’ll go Atl.  Surely anyone with the Patriots left (which is likely a fair number it looks like) will pick them week 13 and most the rest will be on Chicago or SF.  Week 14 will likely be a lot of Baltimore with some Pitt/GB holdouts, so hopefully neither Lions or Jets will be over picked.

    So all-in-all, am I putting too much emphasis on the future and the Lions are still easily the best pick for me?  Or are the 49ers equally viable?

    Thanks a lot,

    P.S. I can wait until the lats minute to place a pick so let me know what ratio of Lions/49ers picked by others makes the difference.

  • Billbuchanan

    I am debating buying someone out of their survivor pool ticket so I can get back in. My only rough week is next week; I can’t wait until then, because I need to buy it before this week

    The best options available for next week (Week 12) that the ticket has are ATL and CIN. I haev a feeling CIN may lose, so I’m debating going with ATL. How confident are you in ATL beating MIN?

  • Brian Preston

    I am 1 of 2 remaining in a 2 strike pool. I have 1 strike, my opponent has 0. He’s already used New England and Green Bay, and I still have New England as an option. Is the clear choice to use New England hoping for an upset in him most likely going 49ers or Detroit? Or is there any value at this point in saving NE?  I still have the 49ers and Detroit as well. He still has Steelers to use down the road if that makes any difference. Other than that, we have used almost the exact same teams. 

  • John

    Well first off thanks for helping through this tough season….I have two of six remaining picks left out of over 950 entered….
    Here are what I have picked so far:
    Team 2 Hou Det Pit GB NE Oak Dal NYG NO Mia
    Team 5 NE Pit SD Chi Det GB NO Ten Hou Dal
    The remaing teams are as follows:
    B5      Phi Det SD GB NO Pit Dal Bal Hou Jax
    D10    NE NYG Bal SD NO GB Dal Buf Hou Pit
    E2      Ari Det SD TB NO Pit Dal Bal Hou GB
    S2      Hou GB Ten TB NE Pit NO SF Dal Mia
    A few wanted to split pot before last game but one didnt so pool goes on….what is my strategy now….also E2 worsk with me so that is a slight advantage knowing what he is going to pick. We wont know who picks which team after all picks are in.
    Thanks in advance

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Thaddeus — Your analysis is good. Our pick of Detroit was in large part because they have little to no future value for us. It sounds like they’d be useful for you in Week 14, so that would drop them back to about even with SF, given the pick distribution above. If more than 1/3 of your pool picks SF, while the lions stay under 15%, I’d probably go Lions, but neither one would really be a *bad* choice.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Given the projected Vegas line and our models, I’d estimate ATL’s chance to beat MIN at around 70% to 75%.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Brian — Since your opponent has no strikes, it looks very likely that you’ll need to survive the next few weeks, which means I’d take the next couple picks into account. But you still want to be as safe as possible, and don’t really worry about his choice. The drop off from NE to SF this week is less than the drop off in Week 13, so I’d use SF now, and NE in Week 13.

    If he was on his last strike, it’d be different, and I might use NE now. But you KNOW he won’t be eliminated this week, making future value much more important.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I would continue your strategy of splitting up your picks between two teams, to avoid having both knocked out by one game. I’d say one pick should definitely be SF. Even though they may be the most popular, your other options (BAL, NYG, ATL) are far riskier. For the other pick, it’s a tough call between BAL & NYG. Baltimore is the best in terms of immediate value, but they are obviously more valuable going forward. Those pretty much cancel out.

  • John

    Well, Vick is going to be out and Maclin is game time decision. Would you type the better odds with NYG or Baltimore. This is my scenerio for the next few weeks see if you concur.
    starting with week 11
    SF Cin Chi Bal
    Bal Atl SF NYJ

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    John — I think that looks like a very good plan for the next 4 weeks.

    As for NYG vs Baltimore, I forgot that you won’t want to use them for both of your entries in Week 13, so I’d definitely go with BAL instead of NYG this week. Looking good.

  • John

    You think I have a shot….Some have contemplated splitting pot but should I keep on going? Thx Again!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    John — Of course you have a shot, but is it better than the others? Not sure. You might want to use our Survival tool to see who still has teams available with easy games in the last part of the season. If you have fewer easy game options than the average for your pool, you should probably go for a split.

    Or, if it’s a ton of money, and you would really like to walk away with some of it, rather than risking it for a larger payday, obviously that’s another reason, which is kind of outside the realms of statistical analysis.

  • MJA

    David,  Thanks to being the only one left with GB last week I am the last man standing out of a pool of almost 250!  This site was a huge help.  Please keep up the great work!  Also would love to know how best to support this website, donation?

  • jw

    I have used the first three picks, dal and Bal.  I want to go with Atl and save SF for week 13.  3 people remaining in the pool.  What is the best choice to get by this week.  My counter parts have 1 NE,BAL,ATL, SD.  2 BAL/ATL, AND I HAVE ATL,SF, AND SD.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    jw — Not sure why you are mentioning SD here, as they are underdogs to Chicago. Do you mean you have Chicago available? If so, they’d be a fine pick in Week 13, and I would definitely go with SF here.

    Do you have good options for Week 12? If not, then using Atlanta is nearly as bad for your future value as using San Francisco.

    Hard to really give much advice here without knowing who you have left, but I would lean towards taking SF. Who knows, your pool may not even last to Week 13, so there may be no point in saving them. It’s not out of the question that your opponents could both pick Baltimore or Atlanta this week, and then picking SF would give you the edge, as it’s a safer choice. Plus, if they do pick Atlanta, you’ll want to NOT pick the Falcons, so that you can root for an upset.

  • jw

    Yes i did mean Chi is available. Week 12 I have 2 options Chic and Atl according to the charts.  

  • matt

    Hi David,

    Thanks for this fantastic analysis all season long.  It is down to the final two in a pool that started week 8.  Everyone but two of us got eliminated last week picking Philly.

    Here are our past picks:
    Other team:  BAL, HOU, GB
    My team:  NYG, NOR, GB

    Now in such a small pool where I am so close to winning and have a lot of teams available who do I play this week?  I assume the strategy is less about future conservation and more about just the best play each week.

    I’m thinking NE but should I save them and use SF?  GB is obviously out for me and DET seems risky considering I have almost everyone available to me.

  • http://twitter.com/drumzan drumzan

    Completely agree about Dallas.  I think there’s upset potential in that game.  No matter how bad the Redskins or Cowboys are, that matchup has always been historically all over the place.  Atlanta’s not a good choice either.  The Titans for whatever reason always play the NFC tough.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    You’re correct, with two people left, your strategy should be based almost entirely on picking the safest choice in the current week. I would go with New England and hope that your opponent makes a riskier pick.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    drumzan — Glad you agree with us here; you’ve been making some smart choices this year.

  • eaglechic

    so you would still pick Detroit, even though Stafford is hurt?

  • Kevin

    im in a pool that started with 829 and after last week there are only 12 left. im feeling strong about the pats this weekend, but san fran is intriguing as well yet i dont feel as confident with san fran as i do with the pats. ive used Arizona, Jets, Pitts, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Oakland, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, and Green Bay. i dont feel very confident about the detroit pick since they got blown up by chicago last week. obviously at this point future value kinda goes by the way side, so i’ve pretty much decided to roll with NE. i know that week 13 has some pretty favorable matchups so i’m not too concerned with burning NE this weekend. 10 out the 12 can still use NE and 90% of the people can use San Fran. what say u?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Chic — The line is still -7, and this analysis is all about trusting the numbers, so nothing about Detroit’s situation has changed. Obviously we encourage everyone to use their own judgment, though.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    As we said in the post, we feel GB/DET/NE are a cut above the other picks this week. Without knowing your pick distribution, it’s hard to say who is really the best, but given what little info we have, NE seems like a good choice.

  • Mijmarti

    David- you guys going to post some analytics before tomorrow morning’s game!?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess