NFL Week 1 Mega Preview: Breaking Down All 16 Games (2019)

September 2, 2019 - by Seth Trachtman

First up on Thursday: Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears take on Green Bay in a division rivalry game.

With NFL Week 1 of the 2019 season kicking off on Thursday, here’s a numbers-driven preview of all 16 games, including offseason news, spreads, picks, odds, stats, injuries, preseason outlooks, betting trends and more.

We dare you to read it all!

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1. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Game Time: Thursday, Sep. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point Spread: Chicago -3.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News & Notes

The Packers and Bears kick off the NFL’s 100th season with a classic rivalry game. Both teams had significant changes on the defensive side of the ball during the offseason, headlined by the Bears losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos head coaching job, and the Packers adding Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary to their pass rush.

Green Bay has a new head coach for the first time since 2006. The Packers hired former Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur to lead the team, as the relationship between Aaron Rodgers and former head coach Mike McCarthy had grown stale. Chicago has a few major changes of its own, hiring defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, and expecting running back and third-round pick David Montgomery to carry the load and add more versatility to its offense on early downs.

Key Injuries/Absences

Green Bay: First-round pick DE Rashan Gary’s debut may be delayed with a neck injury. Starting CB Kevin King (hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (finger) and backup RB Jamaal Williams (hamstring) are also questionable.

Chicago: TE Trey Burton is questionable to start the season as he recovers from offseason hernia surgery. WR Anthony Miller is also questionable with an ankle injury.

Betting Blurbs

Green Bay is 16-5 ATS and SU over last 20 seasons when playing in Chicago (playoffs included).
The Bears won the last matchup 24-17 in December at home, ending a streak of five straight wins by the Packers in the series.
That win also snapped a nine-game winning streak for Green Bay at Soldier Field.

Season Outlook

The teams are neck-and-neck in our preseason ratings, with Chicago ranked No. 8 and Green Bay at No. 9, and only a 0.3 point rating difference separating them. We give the Bears a slight edge to win the NFC North at 30.2% and Green Bay at 29.4%. Both teams have 8.7 projected wins.

Key Matchup Stats

Chicago led all defenses in interceptions last season, while Green Bay had the lowest interception thrown rate in 2018. The Packers had the most pass-heavy offense in the league last season (67.54% pass rate) but could show more balance against a Bears team that was elite against the pass last year, allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Chicago (64.5% win odds)

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2. Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Kansas City -3.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The Chiefs high-powered offense goes into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars squad with elevated expectations after signing quarterback Nick Foles in the offseason. Foles is a disciple of KC head coach Andy Reid, playing under him both in Philadelphia and Kansas City.

Meanwhile, new Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo held the same job with the Giants during their 2007 Super Bowl win under former Giants head coach and now Jags Executive VP Tom Coughlin. Both teams hope they’ve smoothed out their weaknesses from last season, with the Chiefs trying to fix their defense and the Jaguars seeking to address their offense.

Key Injuries/Absences

Kansas City: CB Morris Claiborne is suspended for the first four games of the season.

Jacksonville: Second-string WR DJ Chark and backup RB Ryquell Armstead are both questionable due to concussions.

Betting Blurbs

This is the first KC road game at Jacksonville since Andy Reid’s debut with the Chiefs to start the 2013 season (a 28-2 Kansas City win).
In fact, the Chiefs haven’t played a single game in Florida since 2014 (at Miami).
Kansas City won last year’s matchup at Arrowhead Stadium 30-14, thanks to four interceptions by now-departed Jags QB Blaine Gabbert.
The Jaguars held Patrick Mahomes to his lowest passer rating of the year.

Season Outlook

The Kansas City Chiefs are No. 1 in our predictive ratings entering the season, and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is expected to rebound from last year’s free fall. Thanks to Andrew’s Luck retirement, Jacksonville is bunched up with the Texans and Titans in the AFC South projections; the Jags have a 24.4% chance of winning the division, making them the most likely worst-to-first division winner candidate in the NFL this season.

Key Matchup Stats

It’s a case of strength vs. strength for the Chiefs passing offense against the Jacksonville pass defense. KC had a league-best 8.3 yards per pass with the emergence of Patrick Mahomes last season, while the Jaguars held opposing offenses to 6.2 yards per pass (fourth best). If Jacksonville can improve their pass game, it could pay dividends for RB Leonard Fournette and company, preventing defenses from loading the box. The Jaguars averaged only 4.1 yards per carry last season (seventh worst), but Kansas City’s defense allowed a mediocre 4.9 yards per carry.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Kansas City (63.6% win odds)

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3. Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Cleveland -5.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

After what looked like a breakout 2016 season with 26 TD passes, Titans QB Marcus Mariota has thrown 24 TD passes and 23 INTs over the last two years combined. The Titans are hopeful Mariota will be more potent this season after fighting through an arm issue last season. If he’s not, they have signed Ryan Tannehill to serve as his backup, and the Titans may not hesitate to make a move if Mariota struggles. Tennessee was the second most run-heavy team in the league last year, and Derrick Henry is expected to carry the load after a strong finish to 2018.

Cleveland has been one of the offseason’s most hyped teams after adding Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, and Sheldon Richardson, among others, to a team that finished last season 5-2 in their last seven contests. Freddie Kitchens was promoted from interim offensive coordinator to the head coach position after the season. Optimistic Browns fans expect a second-year leap from QB Baker Mayfield, given the talent around him and recent second-year breakouts from fellow QB’s Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Mitchell Trubisky.

Key Injuries/Absences

Tennessee: Not an injury, but OT Taylor Lewan is suspended for the first four games of the season.

Cleveland: None

Betting Blurbs

Cleveland is favored by 5.5 points to start the season, and the franchise is 1-6 ATS and 3-4 SU as a favorite of more than a field goal over the last five years.
Tennessee opened last year going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when playing as an underdog, before closing with three straight losses in that role.
These franchises did not play a year ago, but did play from 2014-2017. They were 2-2 SU but Cleveland covered the spread in all four games (all as underdogs).

Season Outlook

Cleveland is expected to take a leap and be in playoff contention this year. Our preseason predictions have them in a virtual dead heat with Baltimore for the final AFC Wildcard spot, with Pittsburgh slightly ahead in the AFC North. Tennessee is also projected to contend for a wide-open AFC South, a year after having a chance going into the Week 17 matchup with the Colts (which they lost 33-17).

Key Matchup Stats

The Browns could be bound for some regression in the takeaway department after ranking second with 1.9 takeaways per game last season. Titans RB Derrick Henry rushed for 1,059 yards last season, but 585 of those yards came in the last four regular season games. He’s expected to take on a greater workload this season after sharing carries with RB Dion Lewis early last year.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Cleveland (68.3% win odds)

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4. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Baltimore -6.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The Ravens go into the season with second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson under center, and have gone all-in with their run-heavy offense, promoting Greg Roman to offensive coordinator. The team selected wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to complement Jackson’s deep-throwing ability, but free agent running back signing Mark Ingram could have the bigger initial impact.

The defense has gotten younger, moving on from Terrell Suggs, Eric Weddle, C.J. Mosley, and Za’Darius Smith. Most of the new starters are promoted from within, but they did sign former Seahawks safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore’s defense ranked No. 2 in points allowed last year, but there could be an adjustment period with all the new faces and roles this season.

The Ravens, though, will face a Dolphins offense in transition. Miami held a competition between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen at quarterback and have given the nod to the former, though they also don’t seem dead set on a starting running back between Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage.

The Dolphins also made some drastic “firesale” changes at the end of the preseason, trading left tackle Laremy Tunsil, wide receiver Kenny Stills, and linebacker Kiko Alonso. Former Patriots defensive assistant Brian Flores will be making his head coaching debut in what looks like a rebuild situation.

Key Injuries/Absences

Baltimore: LB Chris Board is out with a concussion.

Miami: RB Kenyan Drake was limited in preseason because of a foot injury, and starting S Reshad Jones had offseason shoulder surgery.

Betting Blurbs

Baltimore has won the last two matchups between these franchises by a combined 78-6 scoreline (2016 and 2017).
The point spread opened at Baltimore -4 but has climbed to Baltimore being favored by 6.5 points.
The current spread matches the largest line for Baltimore as a road favorite in the last seven years.
Baltimore is 6-7 ATS and 8-5 SU under John Harbaugh as a favorite of 5 or more.

Season Outlook

Baltimore will look to defend their AFC North title and is expected to again be in playoff contention. Our preseason predictions give the Ravens a 46% chance of reaching the postseason. Miami has the lowest projected win total (5.0) in the NFL for 2019, and expectations are very low as the franchise begins a long-term rebuild.

Key Matchup Stats

While the Ravens ranked third in rush play percentage overall last year (47.74%), their running attempts picked up rapidly when Jackson was named the starter at midseason. They have a chance to expose a Miami defense that allowed 4.8 yards per carry last year (fifth worst).

Miami’s offense also fared well on the ground in 2018, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and it will be interesting to see how well Baltimore plugs the run with a new starting linebacker corps. The Ravens defense held opponents to a league-best 4.7 yards per play last season.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Baltimore (68.1% win odds)

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5. Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

Atlanta and Minnesota are coming off disappointing 2018 seasons where they both missed the playoffs. Atlanta fired all three of its coordinators, but brought back former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who held the same role from 2012-14.

The Falcons offense was certainly the strength of the team last year with 25.9 points per game (ninth best in the NFL). Running back Devonta Freeman returns after missing most of last season with injuries, and the team invested heavily in retooling the offensive line. The defense is pinning its hopes on the healthy returns of stars Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, along with a better pass-rush from their front seven.

Minnesota returns most of the 2018 roster after a cash-strapped offseason. The team used most of their draft picks on offensive players, including three offensive linemen, as they wanted to find some help for quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense declined last season but still ranked 10th in the league with 21.3 points allowed per game.

Key Injuries/Absences

Atlanta: Rookie first-round pick OT Kaleb McGary underwent a cardiac ablation procedure in August and is questionable to start the year. DT Ra’Shede Hageman is suspended for the first two games of the year.

Minnesota: None

Betting Blurbs

This is the first game for Atlanta at U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016.
Atlanta has played only one road game at Minnesota in the last decade (at TCF Stadium in 2014, Minnesota won 41-28 as a 3-point underdog).
Minnesota is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium against other dome teams (Detroit and New Orleans).
The point spread has moved in Atlanta’s favor since last week, from Minnesota -4.5 to Minnesota -3.5.

Season Outlook

Both Atlanta and Minnesota are projected to be in a large group of NFC teams competing for a playoff spot, and our projected win totals (8.4 for Atlanta and 8.5 for Minnesota) put them in the same range. That makes this early contest a potentially high-leverage game for future tiebreaker purposes.

Key Matchup Stats

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer expressed some displeasure with the team’s lack of a running game last season before firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. The Vikings are expected to show more balance after passing the ball 64.41% of the time last year (fourth most). That would make sense against an Atlanta defense that allowed 4.9 yards per rush (second worst). Minnesota’s pass rush had an NFL-best 9.04% sack rate last season, so Matt Ryan may face extra pressure to release the ball quickly.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Minnesota (64.2% win odds)

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6. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: NY Jets -3 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

This AFC East matchup features two teams that made arguably the biggest offseason splashes. Buffalo signed Frank Gore, John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Mitch Morse, while also using three top-three round picks on offensive players.

New York hired head coach Adam Gase after he was let go by the Dolphins, and gave QB Sam Darnold some weapons with Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder, along with a revamped offensive line. The Jets also helped their defense by signing C.J. Mosley and drafting Quinnen Williams third overall. Both teams are hoping to challenge New England’s streak of 10 straight division titles.

Key Injuries/Absences

Buffalo: The Bills face some offensive line uncertainty regarding C Mitch Morse (probable-concussion), G Quenton Spain (questionable-ankle), and TE Tyler Kroft (out-foot).

NY Jets: WR Robby Anderson is questionable with a calf injury, and TE Chris Herndon is serving a four-game suspension. CB Trumaine Johnson is doubtful with a hamstring injury.

Betting Blurbs

Since 2002, the underdog in the Jets/Bills series is 18-16 SU and 21-13 ATS.
The winning team has scored 27+ points in five of the last six meetings.

Season Outlook

With Miami in rebuild mode, both Buffalo and the Jets both have an opportunity to get into the playoff discussion if they can get off to good starts. Both feature second-year quarterbacks, and the expectation is that they will make a move toward respectability in 2019. Our preseason playoff odds for each team (26.1% for the Jets, 24.5% for the Bills) are very close and as a result, this is a key early-season division matchup.

Key Matchup Stats

Buffalo averaged only 16.8 points per game last season (third worst in the NFL), but ended last season on a high note with a 42-point showing against Gase’s Dolphins. They were the fourth most run-heavy team in the league (46.43%) and could continue that trend after adding Gore and rookie Devin Singletary to their running back room, to go with Josh Allen starting from the outset.

The Bills limited opposing offenses to only 294.1 yards per game (second best) but were in the middle of the pack in points allowed partially as a result of averaging 2.0 giveaways per game.

The Jets are hoping second-year quarterback Sam Darnold is more efficient under Gase. The Jets completed only 57.1% of their passes (second worst) and had 6.0 yards per pass attempt (fifth worst) in 2018.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: NY Jets (65.5% win odds)

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7. Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Philadelphia -9.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

Washington had an interesting offseason that included giving former Giants safety Landon Collins huge money, drafting quarterback Dwayne Haskins in the first round, and adding journeyman quarterback Case Keenum. Keenum will be the starter in Week 1, but could have real issues keeping upright with star left tackle Trent Williams holding out. Washington hopes the running back duo of Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice can keep defenses honest.

Philadelphia would like to show more pass rush despite losing Michael Bennett and Chris Long, and they still seem capable with a deep and young defensive line led by Fletcher Cox. The Eagles also made some notable moves on offense, adding running backs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders, and bringing back speedy wideout DeSean Jackson after he spent five years in Washington and Tampa.

Key Injuries/Absences

Washington: LT Trent Williams is unlikely to play as a holdout. RB Derrius Guice is questionable as he recovers from last year’s ACL surgery. CB Fabian Moreau is questionable (ankle), and TE Jordan Reed is probable (concussion).

Philadelphia: LB Nigel Bradham is questionable (hand). WR DeSean Jackson suffered a fractured finger but is expected to play with a splint.

Betting Blurbs

Over the last 10 years, teams favored by 8 or more points in Week 1 are 16-4 SU but 7-13 ATS. The last five have have failed to cover.
Philadelphia has won the last four games in the series, all by double digits.
Since 2002, the Eagles are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS when favored by at least a touchdown against Washington.

Season Outlook

We expect a tough year ahead for Washington, with 5.8 projected wins as the Redskins open the year as our 29th ranked team in the NFL. Philadelphia is our favorite to win the NFC East (66.6% odds) with a 9.9 win projection, which is higher than its win total line in the betting markets (9.5 wins).

Key Matchup Stats

Offenses regularly passed on a banged up Eagles secondary last year, as they faced a league-high 66.46% pass plays. Philadelphia returned the favor on offense, passing nearly 62% of the time and completing more than 69% of their passes.

Washington had a non-descript offense last year and only managed 17.6 points per game (fourth worst), and the Redskins were particularly anemic after Alex Smith got injured. The hope is that Keenum can provide a spark, but he regressed to 6.6 yards per attempt with a sub-50 QBR for Denver last year.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Philadelphia (74.6% win odds)

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8. Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: LA Rams -3 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The Rams 2018 season ended in disappointment with a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, but they’ve reloaded this year. In addition to wideout Cooper Kupp’s return from knee surgery, the team has added notable veterans Eric Weddle and Clay Matthews on defense. They continue to go all-in during Jared Goff’s rookie contract, and anything short of the Super Bowl will be another letdown.

Carolina also has high aspirations after missing the playoffs last season. Cam Newton is coming off shoulder surgery and also suffered an ankle injury during the preseason, but should be ready for Week 1. He’s still complemented by a young set of weapons that include Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel, as well as a formidable defense that made significant additions with Gerald McCoy and first-round pick Brian Burns.

Key Injuries/Absences

LA Rams: None

Carolina: Kicker Graham Gano was placed on IR. OT Greg Little is questionable with a concussion, and Cam Newton should be active after suffering the foot injury in the preseason.

Betting Blurbs

Since 2002, AFC/NFC West teams playing as a favorite on the East Coast at the 1 p.m. ET game slot are 37-46 (44.6%) ATS.
However, those teams did go 4-0 ATS last year.
This will be the 19th game where Cam Newton has played at QB and Carolina is a home underdog. The Panthers are 10-8 ATS in that spot.

Season Outlook

We currently project the Rams as the No. 3 seed in the NFC with 9.6 wins, 1.2 wins better than Seattle in the NFC West. Their 6.7% Super Bowl win odds are fourth best in the NFL. Carolina has a 35.5% chance at returning to the playoffs, but are currently projected to finish third in the tough NFC South with an 8.1 win projection. That projection is still more optimistic than the betting markets, which have put their win total at 7.5.

Key Matchup Stats

The Rams had the second-most potent offense in the league last year, averaging 30.8 points per game, and were relatively run-heavy with a 43.59% run play rate. Star running back Todd Gurley is expected to have a more limited workload this year after wearing down late last season with an arthritic knee, but the Rams prepared by drafting Darrell Henderson in the third round. The team ranked seventh with 1.7 takeaways per game and would like to see that rate get even better after adding Weddle and his 29 career interceptions.

Carolina really struggled rushing the quarterback in 2018 (25th in sack rate), which explains the McCoy and Burns investments. McCaffrey’s 107 receptions set a running back record last year, but he’s expected to be used somewhat more conservatively this year.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: LA Rams (61.8% win odds)

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9. Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: LA Chargers -6.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

Well, it’s been an interesting preseason for the Colts, to say the least. Less than two weeks away from the season starting, star quarterback Andrew Luck shocked the world with his retirement announcement. Jacoby Brissett started the 2017 season in Luck’s stead, and now has a much better supporting cast, including an offensive line that allowed a league-low 18 sacks last season (though that’s likely also attributable at some level to Andrew Luck, as Brissett has a 9.9% career sack rate).

The Colts have made some significant under-the-radar moves in the offseason, acquiring wideout Devin Funchess and pass rusher Justin Houston. The Chargers also had a major loss in training camp with star safety Derwin James suffering a foot injury that will keep him out for most of the regular season. Like the Colts’ loss of Luck, the James injury is a setback that damages the Chargers’ Super Bowl aspirations.

Of course, entering his 14th year as the Chargers starter, QB Philip Rivers has been through the ringer before. The team still has plenty of talent around him, including star wideout Keenan Allen and the dynamic pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

Key Injuries/Absences

Indianapolis: The biggest injury was the calf injury that led to Andrew Luck deciding to retire. Rookie WR Parris Campbell is questionable because of a hamstring injury.

LA Chargers: S Derwin James and OT Russell Okung are out for an extended period of time. RB Melvin Gordon is holding out.

Betting Blurbs

The line opened as Chargers -3, and jumped four points to -7 with the Andrew Luck retirement news.
Since the Chargers moved to Los Angeles, they are 10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS, and eleven of the 16 games have gone Under the total.

Season Outlook

Without the aid of Luck, we project the Colts to finish last in the AFC South; their current projection is 7.4 wins and only a 27.8% chance to make the playoffs. The Chargers barely trail Kansas City in the AFC West, with 62% playoff odds and a projected 9.8 wins, and they rank as the No. 4 team in our preseason ratings.

Key Matchup Stats

The Chargers ranked fourth best in yards per pass attempt last season (7.7) and hope to get another jolt with tight end Hunter Henry, who missed nearly all of last season with a knee injury. Indy seemed to fix their offensive line issues last year, ranking No. 1 with a 2.86% sack rate, but it will be interesting to see if the switch from Luck to Brissett at quarterback has an adverse impact on those numbers.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: LA Chargers (72.1% win odds)

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10. Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Seattle -10 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

Cincinnati finally turned the page on the Marvin Lewis era after 16 seasons and hired former Rams offensive assistant coach Zac Taylor as its new head coach. Taylor will have his hands full in his first game at Seattle and without star wideout A.J. Green. QB Andy Dalton is looking to rebound after missing time late last season due to injury, but more pressing could be the Bengals’ defensive issues in a matchup facing Russell Wilson and last year’s most run-heavy offense.

The Seahawks have lost significant talent for the second consecutive offseason as they try to get younger. Wideout Doug Baldwin retired, and the team moved on from defensive stars Frank Clark and Earl Thomas. Seattle is also set to be without defensive tackle Jarran Reed for the start of the year due to a suspension, but they acquired Jadeveon Clowney from Houston over the weekend to spur their pass rush.

Key Injuries/Absences

Cincinnati: A.J. Green will miss a few games to start the season after tearing ligaments in his ankle in the preseason opener. The Bengals haven’t fully ruled out OT Jonah Williams (their first round pick in the 2019 draft) from playing at some point, but he had labrum surgery in June and will not be available any time soon.

Seattle: The Seattle receiving corps is thin. Rookie D.K. Metcalf is doubtful with a knee injury and David Moore is out with a fractured forearm. Jarran Reed is also suspended for the first six games of the season.

Betting Blurbs

This will be the 39th game with Pete Carroll as head coach in Seattle where the Seahawks will be favored by at least a touchdown at home.
Seattle was 20-18 ATS and 31-7 SU in those situations and 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS against AFC opponents.
The last time Cincinnati played in Seattle was in 2011, Andy Dalton’s rookie year, when the Bengals won 34-12.

Season Outlook

It could be a long year for Cincinnati. We rank the Bengals at No. 31 in the preseason and give them just a 9.2% chance of making the playoffs. Seattle is trying to make it back to the playoffs and has a reasonable shot at 42.6%, though an improved San Francisco could be a spoiler.

Key Matchup Stats

Cincinnati didn’t run the ball often last year (38.27%) since they were usually playing from behind, but they were efficient when they did run the ball with 4.7 yards per carry. They could try to lean on the run more in a loud road game without Green. Of course, no team ran the ball more than Seattle (52.44%), and that’s expected to continue with the combo of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny at running back.

Even though the Seahawks didn’t pass often, they were effective when they did throw, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt (eighth best). Russell Wilson’s deep ball is widely regarded as one of the best in the game, which could expose a Bengals defense that allowed an NFL-worst 413.6 yards per game last season.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Seattle (78.7% win odds)

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11. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Dallas -7 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

Both of these NFC East rivals are at different stages entering the year, with the Giants in a mini-rebuild after trading Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting quarterback Daniel Jones. The Cowboys are hopeful of a Super Bowl run after getting back to the playoffs last season, but might have to do so, at least early in the year, without running back Ezekiel Elliott (holdout).

Eli Manning is still at quarterback, but RB Saquon Barkley is the headlining act for the Giants on offense now. The Cowboys suddenly elite run defense held Barkley in check last season in Week 2, but he got the best of them in Week 17 (142 yards from scrimmage).

The Cowboys were 8-2 in their last 10 regular season games in 2018, and it’s probably no coincidence that star wideout Amari Cooper was acquired near the beginning of that stretch. Cooper helped open up the offense, and the Cowboys got another weapon when tight end Jason Witten “pulled a rabbit out of his head” and came out of the Monday Night Football booth to return for 2019. The pressure will be on that group, along with QB Dak Prescott and rookie back Tony Pollard, if Elliott sits.

Key Injuries/Absences

NY Giants: WR Golden Tate is suspended for four games and WR Corey Coleman is out for the year, but Sterling Shepard is now expected to be available.

Dallas: RB Ezekiel Elliott is holding out and as of publication time had not agreed to return to the team.

Betting Blurbs

Dallas has won the last four meetings in the series.
Dallas is 4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS in games that Ezekiel Elliott did not play, with the game going Under the total six times.
In regular season games with Elliott playing, Dallas is 28-12 SU and 24-16 ATS.

Season Outlook

The Giants franchise seems to be trending in the wrong direction. We slot New York at 28th in our preseason rankings, with a projection of 6.2 wins and a 13.4% chance to make the playoffs. We project the Cowboys to finish second in the NFC East with 8.7 wins and a 46.4% chance of making it back-to-back playoff appearances.

Key Matchup Stats

Dallas held opposing teams to only 3.9 yards per carry last season (fifth best), and were particularly strong later in the year after rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch emerged. The Giants did average a strong 4.7 yards per carry (ninth best) thanks to Saquon Barkley’s big play ability, though consistency was an issue. New York hopes to improve on that after acquiring guard Kevin Zeitler from Cleveland.

Dallas was particularly strong at protecting the ball last year, ranking third best with only 1.0 giveaway per game, and Prescott has only thrown a total of 25 interceptions in his three NFL seasons.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Dallas (74.0% win odds)

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12. Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Detroit -2.5 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The Lions and Cardinals were bottom feeders last season, but hope to turn around their fortunes this year. Detroit’s offseason included several defensive changes as head coach Matt Patricia tries to reproduce what he had in New England. The Lions gave former Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers big money, signed cornerback Justin Coleman, and drafted linebacker Jahlani Tavai. Patricia also continued his attempts to become New England West by drafting a big tight end (T.J. Hockenson) with his first round pick and signing Danny Amendola.

Arizona’s changes were even more drastic. Trying to cure an inept offense, they hired college offensive maven Kliff Kingsbury to run the team and used the first overall draft choice on Kyler Murray, making it two first-round quarterbacks selected in two years. Arizona tried to fix a terrible offensive line by adding veterans Marcus Gilbert and J.R. Sweezy, and also made some notable defensive additions with Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks. Unfortunately, the team will be without both of their starting corners for at least six weeks, as Patrick Peterson is suspended and Robert Alford is injured.

Key Injuries/Absences

Detroit: None

Arizona: Starting CB Robert Alford is out indefinitely with a fractured tibia, while star CB Patrick Peterson is suspended for the first six games. OG Justin Pugh is also expected to be out with a shoulder injury.

Betting Blurbs

Detroit won at Arizona 17-3 last season as a 2.5-point favorite.
The Lions also won their only other game last year as a road favorite.
Over the last decade, the six college-to-NFL head coaches (O’Brien, Marrone, Kelly, Schiano, Harbaugh, and Carroll) have gone 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU in their first games, covering by an average of 12.3 points.

Season Outlook

There isn’t a particularly bright picture for either team entering the season. We project the Lions for 7.1 wins, which is still above the market projection of 6.5. Arizona could be near the top of the draft again next year with a 5.4 win projection, which only exceeds the Dolphins, and we give the Cardinals only a 7.6% chance to make the playoffs.

Key Matchup Stats

Not only did Arizona rank dead last in scoring (14.1 points per game), but the Cardinals were also last in yards per rush (3.8) and yards per pass (5.1). The terrible numbers don’t end there, as they also allowed sacks on 9.51% of dropbacks (fourth worst). Kingsbury and Murray could be considered miracle workers if the team is able to make significant offensive progress.

Detroit is expected to continue running the ball more this year, which could be successful against an Arizona defense that allowed a league-worst 154.9 rushing yards per game and also nearly 5.0 yards per carry.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Detroit (51.2% win odds)

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13. San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -1 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The 49ers are excited for the return of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo despite a shaky preseason. He played only three games last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Garoppolo has some new talent to work with this year, as the 49ers signed running back Tevin Coleman and drafted two wideouts in the top three rounds. The team also prioritized the pass rush in the offseason by trading for Dee Ford and drafting Nick Bosa, though the latter is questionable to play in Week 1 due to an ankle injury. Former Bucs linebacker and big-money free agent signing Kwon Alexander doesn’t have to wait long to face his former team, and should have an immediate impact.

Tampa Bay also made notable changes, led by the hiring of head coach Bruce Arians. Considered a quarterback whisperer in his past stops, he’s tasked with fixing former No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston. Most of Tampa Bay’s offensive talent from last year returns, but its defense made big moves, including the additions of Ndamukong Suh, Deone Bucannon, and five draft picks in the first four rounds of the draft, led by Alexander’s replacement at inside linebacker, Devin White of LSU.

Key Injuries/Absences

San Francisco: Top pick Nick Bosa is questionable to start the year with an ankle injury, and CB Jason Verrett is also questionable.

Tampa Bay: LB Deone Buccanon and DT Vita Vea are both questionable with knee injuries.

Betting Blurbs

Tampa Bay has won the only two meetings between these teams in the last five seasons, including a 27-9 win in Tampa last year.
The over/under is a relatively high 49.5; over the last five years, Week 1 games with O/U lines of 48 or more are a perfectly even 10-10-1.

Season Outlook

Although San Francisco is ranked 20th in our preseason predictive ratings entering the year, the 49ers are projected to finish with eight wins and have a 35.9% chance of making the playoffs. Tampa is only three spots and 2.0 points behind the 49ers in the ratings, but thanks in part to a tougher schedule, the Bucs are projected to finish in the cellar of the NFC South again with a 6.9-win projection. Tampa Bay has finished last in the division in seven of the previous eight seasons.

Key Matchup Stats

Despite the absence of Garoppolo for most of last year, the 49ers still averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt (ninth best). Undrafted Nick Mullens was a revelation playing in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Meanwhile, the Bucs were throttled in the secondary last year, allowing a 72.47% completion rate and 7.8 yards per pass.

Tampa Bay also passed well last year between Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (second best). Bruce Arians has grown a reputation for throwing down the field, so that trend could continue in 2019. Protecting the ball wasn’t a strength of either team, with the Bucs ranking dead last in giveaways (2.2) and San Francisco ranking only two spots ahead (2.0).

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Tampa Bay (51.0% win odds)

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14. Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Game Time: Sunday, Sep. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point Spread: New England -6 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The first Sunday Night Football game of the year features what’s become an AFC rivalry between the Patriots and Steelers. The defending World Champs are hoping to compensate for tight end Rob Gronkowski’s retirement with the return of WR Josh Gordon. Most of the defense returns, with the very notable exception of Michael Bennett replacing Trey Flowers at defensive end.

Pittsburgh’s personnel changes are arguably more drastic. They traded volatile wideout Antonio Brown, replacing him with Donte Moncrief. On defense, they signed Steven Nelson and Mark Barron, and traded up to draft linebacker Devin Bush in the first round.

Key Injuries/Absences

Pittsburgh: LB Bud Dupree is questionable with a hand injury.

New England: Rookie WR N’Keal Harry was placed on IR. Tight end depth could be an issue early as the Patriots try to replace Gronkowski; veteran Ben Watson is suspended for four games and Matt LaCosse has been battling a high ankle sprain.

Betting Blurbs

Pittsburgh won last year’s meeting, snapping a five-game losing streak to New England.
This is the first regular season matchup in New England between these teams since the 2015 season opener, which New England won 28-21 (pushing the -7 spread).
This is the sixth straight meeting between these teams with an over/under line of 49 or more; the Under went 1-4 in the previous five games.

Season Outlook

We project both these teams to win their divisions this year. New England is our No. 2 team in the predictive ratings behind the Chiefs, but have the top odds to win the Super Bowl at 12.1% thanks to a fortuitous schedule. We give the Steelers just under 40% odds to win the AFC North, along with a 9.5 win projection. Pittsburgh enters the year as our No. 7 ranked team.

Key Matchup Stats

Both offenses ranked in the top five in points last season, but accomplished that result in a different way. Pittsburgh was the second most pass-heavy team in the NFL (67.39%), while New England was the seventh most run-heavy (45.09%). The Steelers poor turnover margin (fifth worst) was one big reason they failed to make the playoffs, while New England fared well in that area (sixth best).

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: New England (66.3% win odds)

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15. Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

Game Time: Monday, Sep. 9 at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point Spread: New Orleans -7 (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

This matchup is the first of two Monday Night Football games in Week 1.

Houston’s offense has been in a state of flux during the preseason, losing running back Lamar Miller for the year to a knee injury and acquiring Duke Johnson from Cleveland. During the past weekend, they made a series of huge splashes by trading away multiple first round picks to acquire tackle Laremy Tunsil and wideout Kenny Stills from Miami. Then, they traded pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle. The Texans still have J.J. Watt as the face of the defense, but have made some changes in the secondary such as the additions of Tashaun Gipson and Bradley Roby.

The Saints enter the year with a clear Super Bowl goal after a controversial pass interference no-call ended their quest in the 2018 NFC Championship. QB Drew Brees could be entering his final season, and the team signed tight end Jared Cook to give him an additional weapon. Mark Ingram is out as the running back partner to Alvin Kamara, replaced by Latavius Murray. The defense also returns the vast majority of last year’s personnel.

Key Injuries/Absences

Houston: RB Lamar Miller suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. WR Keke Coutee is questionable with an ankle injury, and rookie OT Tytus Howard is questionable to play because of a finger injury.

New Orleans: DT Sheldon Rankins is out with an Achilles injury.

Betting Blurbs

The Saints covered nine straight games last year, then closed by failing to cover the last five games, including both in the playoffs.
New Orleans has lost five straight season openers, and all five have also gone over the total.
Houston is 12-10-1 ATS in games started by Deshaun Watson the last two years, and 2-8 ATS without him.

Season Outlook

Our projections give Houston a slight edge to win a wide open AFC South, with 31.9% odds to win the division, though Jacksonville and Tennessee are very close behind. Meanwhile, we project New Orleans to be the top seed in the NFC for the second straight year (16.7% odds) with 10.1 wins, though that projection is below the market total of 10.5 wins.

Key Matchup Stats

New Orleans’ defensive strength last year was stopping the run, as the Saints allowed only 3.6 yards per carry (second best). That could make the day difficult for Duke Johnson and company. Houston’s offensive line allowed sacks on a league-worst 10.48% of dropbacks last year — DeShaun Watson does have a tendency to extend plays and hold the ball, which doesn’t help matters —and the Saints will be a challenge with the ninth best sack rate last year (7.19%).

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: New Orleans (74.4% win odds)

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16. Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Game Time: Monday, Sep. 9 at 10:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point Spread: Pick’em (as of Monday Sep. 2)

News and Notes

The Monday late game in Week 1 features an AFC West battle between the Broncos and Raiders. These teams were cellar dwellers in the tough division last year, but have reasons for new hope after their offseasons. Denver hired former Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio as head coach and acquired former Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco.

Oakland made several big personnel additions, such as acquiring wideouts Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, signing right tackle Trent Brown, and using their three first-round picks on defensive end Clelin Ferrell, running back Josh Jacobs, and safety Johnathan Abram. The two teams combined for only 10 wins last season, but if nothing else, there’s reason for NFL fans to stay up late to see the changes and watch Brown’s debut.

Key Injuries/Absences

Denver: He wasn’t going to play early anyway, but second round pick QB Drew Lock has been placed on IR with a thumb injury.

Oakland: OG Gabe Jackson is out for awhile with a knee injury, and OG Richie Incognito is suspended for the first two games.

Betting Blurbs

Denver and Oakland have split the season series each of the last four years, with the home team winning every matchup over the last three seasons.
Going all the way back to 1978, Denver is 24-15-2 ATS in season openers (61%) but most of those were at home. They are 6-7 SU and ATS on the road in Week 1 over that span.
Denver has not played a road opener since 2010.
The line opened with the Raiders favored by 2.5 but has moved to a pick’em.

Season Outlook

In 2019 we project the same AFC West standings as last year, with the Broncos finishing third (projected 6.8 wins) and the Raiders finishing last (projected 5.9 wins). Denver ranks as our No. 22 team in the preseason ratings, while Oakland is five spots behind at No. 27.

Key Matchup Stats

Oakland was beyond desperate for a pass rush going into the offseason, recording a league-low 13 sacks and 2.64% sack rate in 2018. The Raiders secondary also allowed a league-worst 8.0 yards per pass, but it remains to be seen if Flacco can expose that weakness.

Denver ranked third in yards per carry last year (4.9) behind the rookie running back committee of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos defense is known for getting at the quarterback with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, and ranked seventh in sack rate last year (7.42%).

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Denver (55.1% win odds)

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1. Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

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2. Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

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3. Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

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4. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

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5. Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

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6. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

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7. Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

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8. Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers

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9. Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

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10. Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

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11. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

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