TeamRankings Official 2011 NFL Projections

posted in NFL

Throughout the preseason, we’ve been refining our NFL season projections, adding bits of info that improve their accuracy (as confirmed by testing against historical data). The season is about to start, and we don’t have a static page up that will permanently display the preseason projections, so I’m posting them here, for the official record.

The page linked above will update throughout the season, always showing our most current projections for each team. The table below, that’s here to stay.

The one caveat we have is that our projections do not reflect the breaking news that Peyton Manning will be out “for a while.” So our true outlook for the Colts is worse than what is shown below, and the outlook for their division-mates is better. But there’s no time to re-run the numbers before the season starts, so we’re posting them here, warts and all.

TeamRankings Official 2011 NFL Projections
AFC East
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
New England10.35.758.3%37.9%13.9%8.4%11.0
Miami9.66.449.2%29.3%9.9%5.4%50.4
NY Jets8.57.537.1%19.8%5.7%3.5%101.4
Buffalo7.38.726.3%13.1%3.2%1.9%161.5
AFC North
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
Baltimore10.95.165.8%46.6%17.8%8.8%3-1.0
Pittsburgh9.96.153.0%31.3%11.4%5.3%7-0.8
Cincinnati8.47.635.1%17.4%5.1%2.2%15-0.8
Cleveland5.310.710.7%4.7%0.7%0.3%310.1
AFC South
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
Tennessee8.97.144.7%33.6%7.0%3.8%110.2
Indianapolis8.77.343.1%32.1%6.2%3.6%120.6
Jacksonville7.18.926.5%17.6%2.6%1.5%191.0
Houston6.99.124.3%16.6%2.2%1.2%200.7
AFC West
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
San Diego9.36.754.4%46.5%8.5%4.9%80.3
Denver6.79.325.4%19.1%2.1%1.1%220.8
Kansas City6.79.325.1%18.7%2.3%1.2%211.0
Oakland6.29.820.9%15.6%1.5%0.7%280.4
NFC East
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
NY Giants9.66.455.4%38.2%12.3%6.1%6-0.1
Philadelphia8.77.344.9%27.8%7.7%3.8%13-0.1
Dallas8.08.036.2%21.1%5.1%2.3%17-0.5
Washington6.79.323.7%13.0%2.8%1.2%250.0
NFC North
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
Green Bay10.85.267.8%49.8%18.2%9.6%2-0.7
Minnesota8.27.837.3%20.2%5.5%2.6%14-0.2
Chicago7.78.333.3%17.8%4.6%2.1%180.1
Detroit6.89.224.2%12.2%3.0%1.3%230.3
NFC South
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
Atlanta10.45.663.4%45.4%16.4%8.4%4-0.3
New Orleans9.46.652.4%33.2%10.6%5.5%90.0
Carolina6.69.422.8%11.9%2.7%1.2%240.5
Tampa Bay6.29.820.1%9.5%2.2%0.9%270.7
NFC West
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivTop SeedWin SBTR RankSOS
San Francisco7.68.440.6%35.1%3.6%1.3%26-2.0
Arizona7.09.033.9%28.6%2.8%0.9%29-1.7
Seattle6.29.826.4%21.8%1.6%0.6%30-1.1
St Louis5.210.817.6%14.5%0.9%0.3%32-0.6