NFL Week 6 Rankings & Projections Update: Jags Jump, Ravens Soar

October 12, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman

The top ten teams in our NFL Week 6 Rankings as of Thursday morning

In this post, we’re going to share the biggest NFL Week 6 rankings and predictions updates, then preview some interesting Week 6 matchups on the NFL schedule.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for Week 6.

NFL Week 6 Rankings Updates

Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 6. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:

	Team	Division	Ranking	Rating	Rating_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	8	2.5	1.9
2	Philadelphia	NFC East	6	2.7	1.4
3	Baltimore	AFC North	18	0.4	1.2
4	LA Chargers	AFC West	25	-1.9	0.8
5	Kansas City	AFC West	2	6.2	0.7
6	Miami	AFC East	27	-3.9	0.6
7	NY Jets	AFC East	31	-6.7	0.5
8	Carolina	NFC South	11	1.9	0.4
9	Green Bay	NFC North	3	4.7	0.3
10	Seattle	NFC West	4	4.3	0.2

The Jaguars lead all ratings gainers for the second time in three weeks after their surprising 30-9 win at Pittsburgh, resulting in a huge 1.9 point boost in Jacksonville’s predictive rating. The Jags have certainly had their way with the AFC North this season, after also defeating Baltimore 44-7 in Week 3. Jacksonville is now our fourth highest ranked team in the AFC and #8 overall.

Philadelphia also shot up eight spots in the rankings to #6 after their dominant 34-7 win over Arizona. The Eagles gained even more separation in the NFC East after the Cowboys lost and Washington had a bye week.

The Patriots still lead the overall rankings partly as a result of their preseason expectations, but the Chiefs’ predictive rating now trails New England’s by only 0.6 points after another convincing win in Week 5.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 6 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 6:

	Team	Division	Total_Wins	Total_Wins_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	10.1	1.3
2	Baltimore	AFC North	9.0	1.1
3	LA Chargers	AFC West	5.7	0.9
4	Philadelphia	NFC East	10.4	0.8
5	Kansas City	AFC West	12.5	0.8
6	Green Bay	NFC North	10.9	0.7
7	Miami	AFC East	6.2	0.6
8	NY Jets	AFC East	6.1	0.6
9	Carolina	NFC South	10.2	0.6
10	Seattle	NFC West	10.0	0.5

Jacksonville is atop the AFC South at 3-2 and got a strong boost in expected wins after beating the Steelers. The Jaguars were 8 point underdogs in that game according to our ratings, and 7.5 point underdogs in the betting markets.

Baltimore stopped their recent two-game skid with a 30-17 victory over the Raiders, albeit without Derek Carr. They now have an identical 3-2 record to the division rival Steelers, but trail on the tiebreaker after losing head-to-head in Week 4.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 6 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

	Team	Division	Win_Division	Win_Division_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	58.5%	27.7%
2	Baltimore	AFC North	30.8%	19.2%
3	Seattle	NFC West	71.9%	18.4%
4	Philadelphia	NFC East	70.5%	17.3%
5	Kansas City	AFC West	80.4%	12.7%
6	Green Bay	NFC North	61.9%	12.5%
7	Carolina	NFC South	39.1%	9.2%
8	New England	AFC East	75.9%	6.5%
9	Cincinnati	AFC North	14.3%	4.9%
10	Minnesota	NFC North	16.1%	1.4%

Jacksonville’s big win, coupled with losses by Houston and Tennessee, nearly doubled the Jaguars’ odds to win the AFC South. The Jaguars have won their division only twice in the organization’s history, with the last time being 18 years ago.

Seattle took a big step forward in the NFC West with a close road win against the division rival Rams. There’s still a lot of season left and the teams share a 3-2 record, but the Seahawks now rate 5.6 points better in our predictive ratings and currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Chiefs are now the likeliest team to win their division, even with the 3-1 Broncos on their heels. KC has a 4.0 point edge in our predictive ratings and a much more favorable future strength of schedule.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 6 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

	Team	Division	Make_Playoffs	Make_Playoffs_Chg
1	Jacksonville	AFC South	73.7%	29.4%
2	Baltimore	AFC North	50.5%	23.6%
3	Seattle	NFC West	77.4%	15.8%
4	Carolina	NFC South	68.6%	15.7%
5	Philadelphia	NFC East	78.5%	15.6%
6	Green Bay	NFC North	80.6%	10.9%
7	Kansas City	AFC West	95.9%	7.3%
8	Cincinnati	AFC North	25.5%	6.7%
9	Minnesota	NFC North	39.4%	5.5%
10	New England	AFC East	86.0%	5.2%

Baltimore’s chances at getting back to the playoffs nearly doubled after their win over Oakland (a likely competitor for an AFC Wild Card spot) and Pittsburgh’s implosion against Jacksonville.

Carolina and Philadelphia, both big playoff odds gainers, face off in a battle of hot teams this week (see below). The matchup is one of the more interesting Thursday contests on this year’s schedule, featuring two likely playoff teams coming off big wins.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 6 Schedule Watch

Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 6, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:

Philadelphia at Carolina
Thu 8:25pm ET
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has turned it on over the last two weeks after offseason shoulder surgery, with Carolina taking down New England and Detroit on the road. Meanwhile, the Eagles bring a three-game winning streak to Carolina and could be in an even better position to claim the NFC East with a win. The line moved a half point in Carolina’s favor on Wednesday morning after opening at 3 points.

Green Bay at Minnesota
Sun 1:00pm ET
Sam Bradford’s return from a knee injury on Monday night didn’t go as hoped, so the Vikings will likely turn back to Case Keenum against their division rivals on Sunday. For all the major injury issues Minnesota has had this season, now without Bradford and starting running back Dalvin Cook, they trail Green Bay by just one game in the NFC North. The Packers were favored by a field goal as of Wednesday morning after a dramatic last-minute win at Dallas on Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Sun 4:25pm ET
There are plenty of intriguing storylines as the 5-0 Chiefs face a Steelers team that was embarrassed at home by the Jaguars last week. The game is a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round matchup, which the Steelers won 18-16 at Arrowhead. KC currently has about 60% odds to earn the top seed in the AFC, and they’d get another boost with a win this week, since they would own both a multi-game lead and tiebreaker over AFC powers Pittsburgh and New England. The Chiefs are four point favorites as of Wednesday, but Ben Roethlisberger has owned Kansas City during his career with a 6-0 record in games he’s started and finished.

Get info on all Week 6 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 6, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 6 games, please check out our premium products:

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