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NFL Week 4 Rankings & Projections Update: Jaguars Back In Playoffs
September 28, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman
The top ten teams in our NFL Week 4 Rankings
In this post, we’re going to share the biggest NFL Week 4 rankings and predictions updates, then preview some interesting Week 4 matchups on the NFL schedule.
Editor’s Note: Our NFL survivor picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 Rankings Updates
Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 4. Keep in mind that predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team:
| Team | Division | Ranking | Rating | Rating_Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville | AFC South | 12 | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | New Orleans | NFC South | 20 | -0.5 | 2.1 |
| 3 | Washington | NFC East | 21 | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| 4 | NY Jets | AFC East | 32 | -7.8 | 1.3 |
| 5 | Minnesota | NFC North | 11 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 6 | Chicago | NFC North | 29 | -5.1 | 1.1 |
| 7 | Houston | AFC South | 19 | -0.4 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Dallas | NFC East | 8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 9 | Buffalo | AFC East | 25 | -2 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Kansas City | AFC West | 2 | 5.5 | 0.7 |
Jacksonville’s demolition of Baltimore in London makes them the big predictive ratings winner of the week. The Jaguars also climbed a whopping 10 spots in the rankings to #12 this week.
Meanwhile, the Saints climbed six spots to a #20 ranking this week with a 21-point win at Carolina.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
NFL Week 4 Projected Wins Updates
Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 4:
| Team | Division | Total_Wins | Total_Wins_Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville | AFC South | 9.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | New Orleans | NFC South | 7.7 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Chicago | NFC North | 5.7 | 1.2 |
| 4 | Washington | NFC East | 8.1 | 1 |
| 5 | NY Jets | AFC East | 4.6 | 1 |
| 6 | Minnesota | NFC North | 9.2 | 0.9 |
| 7 | Dallas | NFC East | 9.3 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Buffalo | AFC East | 7.7 | 0.9 |
| 9 | Kansas City | AFC West | 11.5 | 0.7 |
| 10 | Tennessee | AFC South | 9.9 | 0.7 |
The Jaguars have been bad for so long that 9.6 wins almost seems like a misprint, but the team is currently 2-1 in a weak AFC South division.
Jacksonville still (slightly) trails division rival Tennessee in projected wins, after the Titans helped their own cause with a home win over Seattle.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
NFL Week 4 Division Winner Odds Updates
The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
| Team | Division | Win_Division | Win_Division_Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | AFC West | 64.0% | 22.3% |
| 2 | Atlanta | NFC South | 60.4% | 19.2% |
| 3 | Jacksonville | AFC South | 36.4% | 13.7% |
| 4 | Minnesota | NFC North | 30.8% | 9.5% |
| 5 | LA Rams | NFC West | 21.3% | 9.0% |
| 6 | New Orleans | NFC South | 11.5% | 7.3% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | AFC North | 63.9% | 4.7% |
| 8 | Dallas | NFC East | 41.7% | 4.3% |
| 9 | Washington | NFC East | 16.7% | 4.0% |
| 10 | Buffalo | AFC East | 11.3% | 4.0% |
A Chiefs win against a division opponent, coupled with losses by AFC West foes Oakland and Denver, helped KC become the biggest gainer in Week 3.
The Chiefs now have a nearly 2-in-3 chance to win their division, while Atlanta and Pittsburgh aren’t far off those odds to win the NFC South and AFC North, respectively.
Pittsburgh is an interesting case this week. Despite suffering an upset loss at Chicago, the Steelers’ odds to win their division actually increased slightly thanks to all three division rivals losing, and top threat Baltimore getting crushed by Jacksonville.
Entering Week 4, the NFC North now looks like the most hotly contested division. Three teams (Packers, Vikings, Lions) sit at 2-1 and have at least a 24% chance to win the division. Green Bay is currently the favorite, but with only 42% odds to win it.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
NFL Week 4 Playoffs Odds Updates
The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
| Team | Division | Make_Playoffs | Make_Playoffs_Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville | AFC South | 60.4% | 29.8% |
| 2 | New Orleans | NFC South | 25.4% | 15.0% |
| 3 | Minnesota | NFC North | 52.4% | 14.5% |
| 4 | Kansas City | AFC West | 85.7% | 12.7% |
| 5 | Atlanta | NFC South | 78.8% | 12.1% |
| 6 | Buffalo | AFC East | 25.0% | 11.3% |
| 7 | Washington | NFC East | 29.9% | 10.7% |
| 8 | Dallas | NFC East | 57.3% | 10.4% |
| 9 | LA Rams | NFC West | 27.2% | 7.3% |
| 10 | Tennessee | AFC South | 65.6% | 6.5% |
Jaguars fans shouldn’t celebrate quite yet, but Jacksonville’s playoff odds have nearly doubled since last week thanks to an unexpected win and 37-point margin of victory over the Ravens.
The Patriots currently have the top playoff odds at nearly 90%, but the Chiefs and Falcons aren’t far off following big Week 3 wins. Could we be looking at a Patriots-Chiefs playoff rematch of their Week 1 game?
See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.
NFL Week 4 Schedule Watch
Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 4, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Sun 1:00pm ET
Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore are coming off of disappointing games, with the Steelers falling to the Bears and the Ravens imploding against Jacksonville in London. This heated rivalry between AFC North teams has been closely fought recently, with the last four head-to-head matchups all decided by a touchdown or less. The home team has won the last three games, but the visiting Steelers are field goal favorites as of Wednesday afternoon.
Philadelphia at LA Chargers
Sun 4:05pm ET
It’s not often you see an 0-3 squad favored over a 2-1 team, but the Chargers were holding steady as slight 1-point favorites early in the week. This game feels like a must-win for the Chargers, lest they fall to 0-4 with three consecutive home losses. LAC has suffered two close losses partly thanks to their poor kicking efforts, but they’ve still averaged only 16 points/game so far. The Eagles are coming off a last second home win over the Giants, but will be without star defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and running back Darren Sproles.
Oakland at Denver
Sun 4:25pm ET
One of the league’s best divisions features a big early-season rivalry game in Week 4, as the Raiders and Broncos, both 2-1, square off. Both teams are coming off disappointing road losses in Week 3, and the loser could suffer another big setback in the race to keep pace with the AFC West leading Chiefs. While Denver has won 9 of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, Oakland has won two of the last three. The Broncos were field goal favorites early in the week.
Get info on all Week 4 games with our NFL schedule and NFL odds.
Until Next Week…
Enjoy NFL Week 4, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 4 games, please check out our premium products:
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