NFL Week 2 Rankings & Projections Update: New England Still #1
September 14, 2017 - by Tom Federico
In this post, we’re going to share the biggest NFL Week 2 rankings and predictions updates, then preview some interesting Week 2 matchups on the NFL schedule.
Just 60 minutes into the 2017 NFL season we had our first major development, as 8-point underdog Kansas City beat our preseason #1 team, New England, by 15.
That result certainly impacted our NFL team rankings, but perhaps not as much as you might think — and definitely not as much as it impacted some other rankings systems.
Some other favored teams, notably Pittsburgh and Houston, also underperformed in their season debuts. At the end of the day, here’s how everything shook out in our NFL Week 2 rankings and predictive ratings:
New England Still #1. One upset loss does not a season make. Until a result of Week 1’s magnitude proves to be more of a trend, the Patriots remain atop our predictive rankings, buoyed by their exceptionally strong preseason rating. Preseason ratings tend to have solid predictive value well into the current season, and Kansas City probably benefitted from some luck as well, as two of their touchdowns came from pass plays of 75+ yards. We do give credit where it’s due, as New England’s predictive rating has declined a full two points from last week — a big drop. But for now, at least, New England remains our top ranked NFL team by a significant margin.
Rams Rocket Ship. The biggest increase in predictive rating from Week 1 to Week 2 goes to the LA Rams, who thrashed the Colts 46-9 as only a 4-point Vegas favorite. LAR jumped from No. 28 to No. 21 in our predictive rankings, though they did benefit from a plus-2 turnover margin.
Jags Notch Second Best Gain. After beating Houston 29-7, Jacksonville’s predictive rating jumped by 2.3 points, the second highest increase of the week, as the Jags moved up from No. 25 to No. 17 in our ratings. Again, some caution may be warranted, as the Jaguars were the beneficiary of a big plus-4 turnover margin.
Bengals Free Fall. Though they weren’t the biggest loser of the week in terms of predictive rating, Cincinnati’s shutout home loss to Baltimore dropped the Bengals a full 10 spots in our predictive rankings. We now rate the Bengals as half a point worse than an average team (-0.5 rating), which puts them slightly behind a big pack of seven teams rated average (0.0 rating) to a point above average (1.0 rating).
Second-Tier Cluster Of 4 Teams. With the Patriots still king of the hill, there is now a cluster of four teams with ratings all 1.5 to 2.5 points worse than New England’s 6.9 rating: Pittsburgh (+5.1), Green Bay, Kansas City, and Seattle (+4.5). The next tier down in quality includes Dallas (+3.8 rating), Oakland, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta (+2.4). No other team rates higher than 1.6 points better than average.
Of course, every game result has an impact on our NFL projections for the rest of the season, from playoff odds to division winner odds to our 2018 projected Super Bowl winner.
Here are some highlights from our NFL Week 2 projections:
Jaguars Top Playoff Odds Gainer. Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Baltimore all saw their playoff odds skyrocket by 20%+ after their Week 1 surprise victories. The Jaguars’ playoff odds, now 58%, actually increased by just over 30%, to the point where we now expect them to make the postseason. Can you believe it, Jags fans?
Other Gainers. Baltimore (65%) also moved from “not expected to make the playoffs” to in, and KC (72%) went from roughly a 50/50 playoffs shot to a solid favorite to make the postseason. The Rams (33%) and Eagles (47%) also significantly bolstered their cases, but we’re not quite ready to call them playoff teams.
Bad News Teams. Based on our preseason numbers Arizona looked like they’d be on the safer side of the fence for the playoffs (barely), but Week 1 didn’t help; their playoff odds (now 37%) dropped by almost 15% after losing to Detroit. The biggest losers of the week were Cincinnati (now 21% playoff odds), Houston (18%), and the NY Giants (27%), all of whom now register as improbable playoff teams.
Wins Don’t Always Help, In Isolation. Despite beating the LA Chargers, Denver’s playoff odds (41%) actually decreased very slightly this week, as two of Denver’s competitors in the AFC West, Oakland and Kansas City, both registered strong Week 1 results.
Division Winner Races Wide Open. After the Week 1 we just saw, outside of New England (75% to win the AFC East, -11% from last week), not one team currently has much better than a 50/50 shot to win its division. No fewer than six teams (Seattle, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Kansas City and … Jacksonville!) are between 45% and 55% odds to be division champs. Carolina (40% to win NFC South) is currently the shakiest projected division winner, and the AFC North now looks like a 2-horse race between Pittsburgh (51% to win it) and Baltimore (40%).
See our latest final standings projections, division winner projections, and playoff odds for all teams:
Here are three games on our radar screen for Week 2, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement so far, or some/all of the above:
Houston at Cincinnati (Thu 8:25pm ET). Thursday night’s matchup between Cincinnati and Houston may be as uninteresting a game as you could fathom based on each team’s poor Week 1 performance, but the betting line movement since Sunday night is notable. The Bengals opened as three-point favorites (-3). Since then, the line moved an additional 3.5 points in Cincinnati’s favor before settling at -6 at post time. Houston was plagued with opening week injuries, including their top three tight ends, linebacker Brian Cushing, and guard Jeff Allen. The Texans will start rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson after he replaced Tom Savage in the opener.
Miami at LA Chargers (Sun 4:05pm ET). After an unscheduled bye in Week 1 because of Hurricane Irma, the Dolphins visit the Chargers for their official opening game in Los Angeles. The Dolphins were one of last year’s surprise playoff teams but currently rank 25th in our predictive rankings, three spots behind the 0-1 Chargers. Our predictive ratings put LA’s newest team as about four-point favorites while playing at home, which matches the Vegas line as of Thursday morning. Just for kicks, NFL teams have a .553 winning percentage (277-224-3) following bye weeks since 2003, but none of that data involved Week 1 byes. 🙂
Green Bay at Atlanta (Sun 8:30pm ET). This week’s Sunday night matchup features two of last season’s NFC powers, as Green Bay visits Atlanta in the official opening of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. On paper, the game looks like a shootout in the making, after the Falcons led the NFL with 34.1 points per game in 2016 and the Packers ranked fourth with 27.6 points, and the total is the second highest of the week at 53.5. The point spread, however, has moved toward Atlanta.
Get links to all our Week 2 matchup analysis and odds: