December 27, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 17 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Ravens, Titans, and Falcons.
Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 17. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:
|Team||Result||Old Rank||New Rank||Old Rating||New Rating||Rating Change|
|Atlanta||W 24-10 at CAR||15||13||0.4||1.1||0.7|
|Baltimore||W 22-10 at LAC||7||6||3.8||4.4||0.6|
|Minnesota||W 27-9 at DET||10||10||2.3||2.9||0.6|
|Oakland||W 27-14 vs. DEN||30||30||-6.5||-5.9||0.6|
|LA Rams||W 31-9 at ARI||2||2||6.5||6.9||0.4|
Atlanta got a 14-point win at Carolina, helped by the absence of Cam Newton (shoulder) and in-game injury to backup QB Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons have consecutive lopsided wins, and hope to finish strong at Tampa Bay.
The second half of the season continues to go well for the Ravens, who are 5-1 with Lamar Jackson starting under center. The team has a big game this Sunday vs. Cleveland, with hopes of capping off their miraculous AFC North comeback.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 17:
|Team||Result||Old Proj Wins||New Proj Wins||Proj Wins Change|
|Atlanta||W 24-10 at CAR||5.9||6.5||0.6|
|Baltimore||W 22-10 at LAC||9.2||9.8||0.6|
|Oakland||W 27-14 vs. DEN||3.5||4.1||0.6|
|Minnesota||W 27-9 at DET||8.6||9.1||0.5|
|Jacksonville||W 17-7 at MIA||4.8||5.3||0.5|
The aforementioned Falcons are still hoping to finish with seven wins, which would be their worst season since 2014.
Oakland has played themselves out of earning the top overall draft pick, for better or worse, with two wins in their last four games. They could spoil Kansas City’s No. 1 seed with a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
It’s been a terribly disappointing year for the Jaguars after winning 10 games during the regular season and advancing to the AFC Championship last year. They could still finish with six wins if they can take down the heavily favored Texans at Houston Sunday. A six-win season would still be their second best record since 2010.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Div Win Odds||New Div Win Odds||Odds Change|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W 22-10 at LAC||31.3%||80.4%||49.1%|
|Kansas City||AFC West||L 38-31 at SEA||78.8%||92.1%||13.3%|
|Tennessee||AFC South||W 25-16 vs. WAS||6.6%||18.2%||11.6%|
|Indianapolis||AFC South||W 28-27 vs. NYG||4.8%||13.2%||8.4%|
|Dallas||NFC East||W 27-20 vs. TB||92.1%||100.0%||7.9%|
Baltimore is now in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North after upsetting the Chargers while division rival Pittsburgh lost at New Orleans. Baltimore will claim the division by beating Cleveland or if the Steelers lose vs. Cincinnati.
Despite two straight losses, the Chiefs only need to beat Oakland at home on Sunday to get homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Even if the Chiefs suffer an upset loss to the Raiders, they would still win the division if the Chargers lose at Denver.
Our projections favor the Titans to beat Indianapolis on Sunday night, though keep in mind these particular projections are based on our power ratings. That means they don’t take into account the spread (Colts -3 as of Wednesday) or significant injuries to Titans stars Marcus Mariota, Jurrell Casey, or Logan Ryan.
Dallas has gone 6-2 since acquiring WR Amari Cooper, and are back atop the NFC East again.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Result||Old Playoffs Odds||Make Playoffs||Make Playoffs Change|
|Baltimore||W 22-10 at LAC||49.8%||80.4%||30.6%|
|Tennessee||W 25-16 vs. WAS||40.2%||58.3%||18.1%|
|Minnesota||W 27-9 at DET||62.7%||79.0%||16.3%|
|Indianapolis||W 28-27 vs. NYG||34.8%||41.7%||6.9%|
|Dallas||W 27-20 vs. TB||93.5%||100.0%||6.5%|
For the top four teams on this list, a win this week secures a playoff spot. The Titans and Colts play Sunday night for what is likely the final AFC Wild Card spot. The Ravens (vs. CLE) and Vikings (vs. CHI) also have to take care of business this week to play in January.
|Team||Win Super Bowl|
Now that we’re on the cusp of the playoffs, the above table is a look at the current Super Bowl win odds. The Saints are the clear favorites with homefield advantage locked up in the NFC. The Chiefs have the best chance in the AFC, with homefield advantage likely.
As for a repeat Super Bowl win in Philly, the Eagles would need to win at Washington and have the Vikings lose to the Bears to even make the playoffs. The chances are looking bleak but…
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