NFL Week 17 Rankings + Projections Update: Ravens, Titans Surging

December 27, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 17 Projections and Rankings Update

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 17 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Ravens, Titans, and Falcons.

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NFL Week 17 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 17. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Atlanta	W 24-10 at CAR	15	13	0.4	1.1	0.7
Baltimore	W 22-10 at LAC	7	6	3.8	4.4	0.6
Minnesota	W 27-9 at DET	10	10	2.3	2.9	0.6
Oakland	W 27-14 vs. DEN	30	30	-6.5	-5.9	0.6
LA Rams	W 31-9 at ARI	2	2	6.5	6.9	0.4

Atlanta got a 14-point win at Carolina, helped by the absence of Cam Newton (shoulder) and in-game injury to backup QB Taylor Heinicke. The Falcons have consecutive lopsided wins, and hope to finish strong at Tampa Bay.

The second half of the season continues to go well for the Ravens, who are 5-1 with Lamar Jackson starting under center. The team has a big game this Sunday vs. Cleveland, with hopes of capping off their miraculous AFC North comeback.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 17 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 17:

Team	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Atlanta	W 24-10 at CAR	5.9	6.5	0.6
Baltimore	W 22-10 at LAC	9.2	9.8	0.6
Oakland	W 27-14 vs. DEN	3.5	4.1	0.6
Minnesota	W 27-9 at DET	8.6	9.1	0.5
Jacksonville	W 17-7 at MIA	4.8	5.3	0.5

The aforementioned Falcons are still hoping to finish with seven wins, which would be their worst season since 2014.

Oakland has played themselves out of earning the top overall draft pick, for better or worse, with two wins in their last four games. They could spoil Kansas City’s No. 1 seed with a win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

It’s been a terribly disappointing year for the Jaguars after winning 10 games during the regular season and advancing to the AFC Championship last year. They could still finish with six wins if they can take down the heavily favored Texans at Houston Sunday. A six-win season would still be their second best record since 2010.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 17 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
Baltimore	AFC North	W 22-10 at LAC	31.3%	80.4%	49.1%
Kansas City	AFC West	L 38-31 at SEA	78.8%	92.1%	13.3%
Tennessee	AFC South	W 25-16 vs. WAS	6.6%	18.2%	11.6%
Indianapolis	AFC South	W 28-27 vs. NYG	4.8%	13.2%	8.4%
Dallas	NFC East	W 27-20 vs. TB	92.1%	100.0%	7.9%

Baltimore is now in the driver’s seat to win the AFC North after upsetting the Chargers while division rival Pittsburgh lost at New Orleans. Baltimore will claim the division by beating Cleveland or if the Steelers lose vs. Cincinnati.

Despite two straight losses, the Chiefs only need to beat Oakland at home on Sunday to get homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Even if the Chiefs suffer an upset loss to the Raiders, they would still win the division if the Chargers lose at Denver.

Our projections favor the Titans to beat Indianapolis on Sunday night, though keep in mind these particular projections are based on our power ratings. That means they don’t take into account the spread (Colts -3 as of Wednesday) or significant injuries to Titans stars Marcus Mariota, Jurrell Casey, or Logan Ryan.

Dallas has gone 6-2 since acquiring WR Amari Cooper, and are back atop the NFC East again.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 17 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	Make Playoffs	Make Playoffs Change
Baltimore	W 22-10 at LAC	49.8%	80.4%	30.6%
Tennessee	W 25-16 vs. WAS	40.2%	58.3%	18.1%
Minnesota	W 27-9 at DET	62.7%	79.0%	16.3%
Indianapolis	W 28-27 vs. NYG	34.8%	41.7%	6.9%
Dallas	W 27-20 vs. TB	93.5%	100.0%	6.5%

For the top four teams on this list, a win this week secures a playoff spot. The Titans and Colts play Sunday night for what is likely the final AFC Wild Card spot. The Ravens (vs. CLE) and Vikings (vs. CHI) also have to take care of business this week to play in January.

Super Bowl Win Odds Entering Week 17

Team	Win Super Bowl
New Orleans	31.9%
LA Rams	16.8%
Kansas City	16.6%
New England	12.3%
Baltimore	4.3%
LA Chargers	3.6%
Houston	3.3%
Chicago	3.3%
Seattle	2.2%
Minnesota	1.5%
Dallas	1.4%
Pittsburgh	1.2%
Tennessee	0.8%
Indianapolis	0.6%
Philadelphia	0.2%

Now that we’re on the cusp of the playoffs, the above table is a look at the current Super Bowl win odds. The Saints are the clear favorites with homefield advantage locked up in the NFC. The Chiefs have the best chance in the AFC, with homefield advantage likely.

As for a repeat Super Bowl win in Philly, the Eagles would need to win at Washington and have the Vikings lose to the Bears to even make the playoffs. The chances are looking bleak but…

Enjoy NFL Week 17, and if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.