December 19, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 16 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Colts, Eagles, and Titans.
Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 16. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:
|Team||Result||Old Rank||New Rank||Old Rating||New Rating||Rating Change|
|Indianapolis||W 23-0 vs. DAL||18||14||-0.2||0.7||0.9|
|Tennessee||W 17-0 at NYG||19||19||-0.7||0.1||0.8|
|Philadelphia||W 30-23 at LAR||13||12||0.7||1.4||0.7|
|Atlanta||W 40-17 vs. ARI||17||16||-0.1||0.5||0.6|
|Minnesota||W 41-17 vs. MIA||11||10||1.8||2.3||0.5|
The Colts moved up four spots in our predictive rankings as they make a playoff push after defeating Dallas 23-0. They finish out the year with a pair of winnable games vs. the Giants and at Tennessee.
The Titans also got a shutout last week. The rise of Derrick Henry over the last two weeks has spurred their offense, and we project them to win nine games for the third consecutive season.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 16:
|Team||Result||Old Proj Wins||New Proj Wins||Proj Wins Change|
|Philadelphia||W 30-23 at LAR||7.3||8.1||0.8|
|Cleveland||W 17-16 at DEN||6.7||7.4||0.7|
|LA Chargers||W 29-28 at KC||11.4||12.1||0.7|
|San Francisco||W 26-23 vs. SEA||3.8||4.5||0.7|
|Tennessee||W 17-0 at NYG||8.6||9.2||0.6|
The Eagles’ win projection improved by almost a full win with a victory at LA as 13.5-point underdogs. It could be too little too late for the Eagles, but their playoff hopes are still alive entering Week 16.
After going 1-31 over the last two season, the Browns’ season has to be considered a success with a seven-win projection. The last time Cleveland won seven games in a season was 2014. They still have a remote shot at finishing with a winning record for the first time since 2007.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Div Win Odds||New Div Win Odds||Odds Change|
|LA Chargers||AFC West||W 29-28 at KC||8.7%||21.2%||12.5%|
|Pittsburgh||AFC North||W 17-10 vs. NE||58.2%||68.7%||10.5%|
|Philadelphia||NFC East||W 30-23 at LAR||0.5%||5.0%||4.5%|
|Houston||AFC South||W 29-22 at NYJ||84.7%||88.6%||3.9%|
|Chicago||NFC North||W 24-17 vs. GB||96.9%||100.0%||3.1%|
The Chargers picked up a huge win at Kansas City on Thursday night, and could win the AFC West and even the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the Chiefs slip up again over the last two weeks. The teams currently have the same record at 11-3, but the Chiefs own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record.
The Steelers really helped their cause with a win against New England and remain a half-game ahead of Baltimore. However, they are 6-point underdogs at New Orleans next week, so haven’t locked up the AFC North yet.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Result||Old Playoffs Odds||New Playoffs Odds||Odds Change|
|Philadelphia||W 30-23 at LAR||11.7%||30.8%||19.1%|
|Tennessee||W 17-0 at NYG||26.8%||40.2%||13.4%|
|Pittsburgh||W 17-10 vs. NE||66.5%||74.8%||8.3%|
|Washington||W 16-13 at JAC||13.4%||16.9%||3.5%|
|Houston||W 29-22 at NYJ||96.9%||99.4%||2.5%|
The odds still look dire for the Eagles with two weeks remaining. They’ll almost certainly need to win their final two games vs. Houston and at Washington, and even that may not be enough. The Wild Card is more likely than winning the NFC East after given their two losses to division leader Dallas.
Tennessee is hoping to make the playoffs for the second straight season, and their odds of doing so are about 5% better than the Colts. The Titans finish out the year with two home games (WAS, IND) and also need Pittsburgh or Baltimore to lose at least one game.
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