NFL Week 16 Rankings + Projections Update: Colts, Eagles Finishing Strong

December 19, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

Week 16 Projections and Rankings Update

In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 16 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Colts, Eagles, and Titans.

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NFL Week 16 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 16. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

Team	Result	Old Rank	New Rank	Old Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Indianapolis	W 23-0 vs. DAL	18	14	-0.2	0.7	0.9
Tennessee	W 17-0 at NYG	19	19	-0.7	0.1	0.8
Philadelphia	W 30-23 at LAR	13	12	0.7	1.4	0.7
Atlanta	W 40-17 vs. ARI	17	16	-0.1	0.5	0.6
Minnesota	W 41-17 vs. MIA	11	10	1.8	2.3	0.5

The Colts moved up four spots in our predictive rankings as they make a playoff push after defeating Dallas 23-0. They finish out the year with a pair of winnable games vs. the Giants and at Tennessee.

The Titans also got a shutout last week. The rise of Derrick Henry over the last two weeks has spurred their offense, and we project them to win nine games for the third consecutive season.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 16 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 16:

Team	Result	Old Proj Wins	New Proj Wins	Proj Wins Change
Philadelphia	W 30-23 at LAR	7.3	8.1	0.8
Cleveland	W 17-16 at DEN	6.7	7.4	0.7
LA Chargers	W 29-28 at KC	11.4	12.1	0.7
San Francisco	W 26-23 vs. SEA	3.8	4.5	0.7
Tennessee	W 17-0 at NYG	8.6	9.2	0.6

The Eagles’ win projection improved by almost a full win with a victory at LA as 13.5-point underdogs. It could be too little too late for the Eagles, but their playoff hopes are still alive entering Week 16.

After going 1-31 over the last two season, the Browns’ season has to be considered a success with a seven-win projection. The last time Cleveland won seven games in a season was 2014. They still have a remote shot at finishing with a winning record for the first time since 2007.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 16 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

Team	Division	Result	Old Div Win Odds	New Div Win Odds	Odds Change
LA Chargers	AFC West	W 29-28 at KC	8.7%	21.2%	12.5%
Pittsburgh	AFC North	W 17-10 vs. NE	58.2%	68.7%	10.5%
Philadelphia	NFC East	W 30-23 at LAR	0.5%	5.0%	4.5%
Houston	AFC South	W 29-22 at NYJ	84.7%	88.6%	3.9%
Chicago	NFC North	W 24-17 vs. GB	96.9%	100.0%	3.1%

The Chargers picked up a huge win at Kansas City on Thursday night, and could win the AFC West and even the No. 1 seed in the AFC if the Chiefs slip up again over the last two weeks. The teams currently have the same record at 11-3, but the Chiefs own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record.

The Steelers really helped their cause with a win against New England and remain a half-game ahead of Baltimore. However, they are 6-point underdogs at New Orleans next week, so haven’t locked up the AFC North yet.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 16 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

Team	Result	Old Playoffs Odds	New Playoffs Odds	Odds Change
Philadelphia	W 30-23 at LAR	11.7%	30.8%	19.1%
Tennessee	W 17-0 at NYG	26.8%	40.2%	13.4%
Pittsburgh	W 17-10 vs. NE	66.5%	74.8%	8.3%
Washington	W 16-13 at JAC	13.4%	16.9%	3.5%
Houston	W 29-22 at NYJ	96.9%	99.4%	2.5%

The odds still look dire for the Eagles with two weeks remaining. They’ll almost certainly need to win their final two games vs. Houston and at Washington, and even that may not be enough. The Wild Card is more likely than winning the NFC East after given their two losses to division leader Dallas.

Tennessee is hoping to make the playoffs for the second straight season, and their odds of doing so are about 5% better than the Colts. The Titans finish out the year with two home games (WAS, IND) and also need Pittsburgh or Baltimore to lose at least one game.

Enjoy NFL Week 16, and if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.