NFL Week 14 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

December 6, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

Week 14 NFL Matchups

With NFL Week 14 kicking off today, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

Want to maximize your edge in pools and betting? Our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks are all posted.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Dallas enters Sunday’s game with a one-game lead over Philadelphia and Washington in the NFC East. They also won their first matchup of the year at Philly, so they’re in the driver’s seat with a 73% chance at claiming the division. Philadelphia has really struggled to run the ball since RB Jay Ajayi was lost for the season, and that’s unlikely to change against a Cowboys defense that has talent at linebacker and is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry (second best in the NFL). The pressure will be on QB Carson Wentz again, as it was in Week 10 against the Cowboys when he threw for 360 yards. The good news for the team’s passing attack is that trade acquisition WR Golden Tate is starting to get the offense, if Monday night’s game is any indication, as he had seven receptions for 85 yards and a score. One big concern for the Eagles will be the health of LT Jason Peters, who left late in Monday’s game with a foot injury, as the Cowboys defense has the eighth best sack rate in the league.

Even after acquiring WR Amari Cooper, the Cowboys offense still runs through RB Ezekiel Elliott. He had his way against the Eagles defense in the first meeting, running for 151 yards on 19 rush attempts. Poor run defense has been a trend for the Philadelphia, which is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fourth worst), and Zeke currently ranks second in the NFL with 1,150 rushing yards. Philadelphia’s defense remains extremely banged up, with key absences at all three levels, but they have been able to get on track lately, holding the battered Washington offense to 13 points and the Giants to 22 points.

Head to Head: Dallas won this year’s first matchup 27-20, and also won 6-0 in Week 17 last year. The Eagles had won three of the previous four games before Dallas’ current streak.

Point Spread on Thursday: Dallas -3.5 (after opening at -4)

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Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

The Rams and Bears are both fighting for playoff positioning entering Sunday night’s game. LAR leads the NFC following New Orleans’ upset loss at Dallas last week, but their visit to Chicago could disrupt their hopes. Chicago is arguably the best defense the Rams have faced this season, ranking fourth in points allowed (20.1) and yards allowed (317.9). Of course, Chicago also hasn’t faced an offense like the Rams; LAR is second in points per game (34.9) behind RB Todd Gurley. He got back on track last week after a sub-par game vs. Kansas City, rushing for 132 yards and two touchdowns at Detroit. He currently leads the NFL with 1,175 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns, though Chicago is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry. The Bears defense is also No. 1 in takeaways (2.5 per game) and may need to manufacture a few to keep up. The Rams have been successful securing the ball, with less than one giveaway per game (fourth best) thanks in part to QB Jared Goff’s efficiency.

Chicago is hoping to get on the winning track after losing at the Giants last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky is expected back from a shoulder injury this week, though that’s not official at the time of this writing. Either way, opposing offenses have feasted on LA’s run defense this season (5.1 yards allowed per carry), so RBs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard will be key factors. The return of CB Aqib Talib from injury last week makes passing the ball against the Rams more difficult, though the defense has been thrashed by tight ends Levine Toilolo and Travis Kelce over their last two games. It should be noted that the Rams allowed 44 points to the Chiefs offense three weeks ago, and Bears head coach Matt Nagy runs a similar offense, as he’s the former KC offensive coordinator. Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will certainly adjust from the KC game plan, albeit against Bears offensive personnel that aren’t as talented.

Head to Head: The Bears have won five of the last six matchups, dating back to 2006. The most recent game was a Bears win in 2015 at St. Louis.

Point Spread on Thursday: LA Rams -3 (after opening at -4)

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

Minnesota and Seattle currently sit in position for NFC Wild Card spots, but Monday night’s game will have some bearing on their respective statuses. The Vikings fell to New England 24-10 last week, and their task doesn’t get much easier with a visit to Seattle. This matchup features offenses that are polar opposites in play calling. The Vikings are dead last in rush percentage (32.7%) and haven’t been able to get much done on the ground, averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Still, RB Dalvin Cook had a good day at New England last week with 84 yards on nine carries, and he could be used more against a Seahawks defense that’s allowing 5.1 yards per carry (worst in the NFL). With WR Stefon Diggs playing banged up last week, QB Kirk Cousins was particularly bad (32-of-44 for 201 yards and two interceptions), but he’s had a good year overall with a 71.3% completion rate, 99.1 Passer Rating, and 63.5 QBR.

Seattle’s backfield is fully healthy, and it showed against the 49ers last week. The most run-heavy team in the league at 51.2%, the Seahawks ran for 168 yards on 29 carries, led by RB Chris Carson’s 13 carries for 69 yards. First-round pick RB Rashaad Penny has also started to make a bigger impact recently, rushing for 65 yards on seven carries on Sunday and averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season. Stopping the run has been Minnesota’s biggest strength, allowing only 3.7 yards per carry (fifth best), so it will be an interesting battle between the two units. Seattle’s offense still has the third worst sack rate in the league (10.2%), more reason why the team has been much more willing to run the ball. However, when QB Russell Wilson has dropped back to pass, he’s been extremely efficient with 29 TDs and only 5 INTs, as well as 8.33 yards per attempt, tied for the best of his career.

Head to Head: Seattle has won the last four matchups, dating back to 2012. The last matchup was the infamous Blair Walsh field goal miss game in the 2015 NFC Wild Card Round.

Point Spread on Thursday: Seattle -3

Game Winner & Spread Picks ($)
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over Under Odds & Line Movement
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Enjoy NFL Week 14, and if you’re in an pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.