November 29, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 13 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Chargers.
Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 13. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:
|Team||Result||Old Rank||New Rank||Old Rating||New Rating||Rating Change|
|LA Chargers||W 45-10 vs. ARI||7||6||2.9||3.9||1.0|
|Cleveland||W 35-20 at CIN||24||22||-3||-2.1||0.9|
|Houston||W 34-17 vs. TEN||11||11||1.3||1.9||0.6|
|Tampa Bay||W 27-9 vs. SF||25||23||-3.1||-2.5||0.6|
|Denver||W 24-17 vs. PIT||18||17||-0.3||0.2||0.5|
The Chargers saw the biggest increase with a lopsided win vs. a bad Cardinals squad that exceeded margin of victory expectations. The Chargers now have a huge game this week at Pittsburgh as they try to keep their AFC West title hopes alive, still trailing the Chiefs by one game with five games to play.
The Bucs showed some life with a big win vs. San Francisco, as Jameis Winston started under center. Their finish this season could ultimately determine the fate of the front office, coaching staff, and Winston in Tampa Bay.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 13:
|Team||Result||Old Proj Wins||New Proj Wins||Proj Wins Change|
|Cleveland||W 35-20 at CIN||5.8||6.5||0.7|
|Denver||W 24-17 vs. PIT||7.1||7.8||0.7|
|Seattle||W 30-27 at CAR||8.6||9.3||0.7|
|Buffalo||W 24-21 vs. JAX||5.4||6.0||0.6|
|Chicago||W 23-16 at DET||10.2||10.7||0.5|
With consecutive wins, the Browns are on track to avoid double-digit losses for the first time since 2014. Long-suffering Browns fans have been treated to a glimpse of the future lately with strong performances from rookies Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Antonio Callaway on offense.
Denver’s projected wins have gone from 6.5 to 7.8 over the last two weeks with consecutive upset victories at the Chargers and vs. Pittsburgh. It’s probably too little, too late for the team’s playoff hopes (currently projected at 14%), but it is solid progress for head coach Vance Joseph and company heading into 2019.
Buffalo was one of the popular favorites for the first overall pick in the NFL Draft not too long ago, but are now projected for six wins after consecutive wins at the Jets and vs. Jacksonville. That means we project the Bills to win two of their final five games, as they have the second easiest remaining schedule.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Div Win Odds||New Div Win Odds||Odds Change|
|Dallas||NFC East||W 31-23 vs. WAS||36.0%||52.1%||16.1%|
|Houston||AFC South||W 34-17 vs. TEN||76.6%||89.0%||12.4%|
|Chicago||NFC North||W 23-16 at DET||69.5%||79.6%||10.1%|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W 34-17 vs. OAK||3.9%||10.0%||6.1%|
|Philadelphia||NFC East||W 25-22 vs. NYG||12.8%||16.3%||3.5%|
Dallas gets a huge jump after beating former division leader Washington on Thanksgiving. The NFC East rivals have split the season series, but the Cowboys have also taken down Philadelphia on the road, while Washington plays the Eagles for the first time this week. It will still be a tough go for the Cowboys, especially with their upcoming three-week stretch against New Orleans, Philadelphia, and at Indianapolis.
Houston beat the Titans without a problem on Monday Night Football, and have jumped to the three seed in the AFC after Pittsburgh’s loss at Denver. It’s quite a turnaround for the Texans, who started the year 0-3 before winning eight straight games.
Chicago strengthened their NFC North position with another division win last week. The Vikings are the only other team in the division with a viable chance at winning the division, but they currently trail by 1.5 games and also lost the first matchup of the year at Soldier Field two weeks ago.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Result||Old Playoffs Odds||New Playoffs Odds||Odds Change|
|Seattle||W 30-27 at CAR||48.7%||76.1%||27.4%|
|Dallas||W 31-23 vs. WAS||42.8%||57.3%||14.5%|
|Minnesota||W 24-17 vs. GB||54.8%||68.4%||13.6%|
|Chicago||W 23-16 at DET||88.1%||96.2%||8.1%|
|Houston||W 34-17 vs. TEN||88.6%||96.5%||7.9%|
Over the last two weeks, the Seahawks have increased their odds of making the playoffs by 45% with key wins vs. Green Bay and at Carolina. Many felt it was a rebuilding year for the team after losing key players on defense like Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman in the offseason, but head coach Pete Carroll’s team has come on strong lately.
Nearly all of the aforementioned Cowboys’ playoff hopes rest on winning the NFC East. Dallas has just a 5% chance of winning a Wild Card spot.
Minnesota’s stock was down last week after losing at Chicago, but they are back on track following a win vs. rival Green Bay. One of the most disappointing teams in the league early on following a 1-2-1 start to the year, the Vikings have won five of their last seven games. Of course, their outlook could change with road games at New England and Seattle over the next two weeks.
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