November 7, 2017 - by Seth Trachtman
Here’s a summary of our biggest NFL Week 10 rankings and predictions changes, along with some interesting Week 10 matchups on the NFL schedule.
Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team. Here are the top 10 increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 10:
|1||LA Rams||NFC West||8||3.4||2.0|
|6||NY Jets||AFC East||29||-5.7||0.8|
|8||New Orleans||NFC South||9||3.0||0.7|
The surprise Rams, having been held back by low preseason expectations, have finally cracked the top 10 in our predictive rankings with a dominant 51-17 win at the struggling NY Giants. Sean McVay appears to be a top candidate for coach of the year, provided LAR’s level of play continues at this level. So far he’s turned last year’s worst offense into an elite looking unit.
Indianapolis had the second biggest ratings increase of the week, winning 20-14 at Houston. However, these ratings don’t proactively adjust for injuries, so Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson’s absence wasn’t considered.
The Texans entered Week 9 as our 10th ranked NFL team and fell four spots in the rankings after Sunday’s loss. If they continue to play poorly without Watson, their predictive rating will continue to drop in the weeks ahead, and the boost that Indy’s rating just got by upsetting the Texans will diminish as well.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top 10 gainers in projected total wins for the 2017 season heading into Week 10:
|Team||Division||Total Wins||Total Wins Change|
|4||LA Rams||NFC West||10.6||0.9|
|5||NY Jets||AFC East||6.0||0.8|
We’ve already addressed the Colts situation above. According to the total wins expectations, Indianapolis has two more projected wins left in them, but that may prove to be a bit optimistic if their win over the Texans is being a bit overvalued right now.
Aided by three missed field goals by the Seahawks, Washington was able to pull off a surprising 17-14 win at Seattle, despite being 9.5 point underdogs in Vegas and 10 point underdogs in our ratings. Washington’s playoff hopes aren’t looking much better with most of the other NFC powers holding serve in Week 9, but maybe the projection of an 8-win season is some sort of consolation.
Like Indianapolis, Detroit was the beneficiary of their opponent’s injured starting quarterback. In this case, it was Aaron Rodgers missing from the Green Bay lineup due to a fractured collarbone, allowing the Lions to claim a victory that wasn’t all that unexpected in Vegas, as the Lions were favored by 2.5 points on the road.
Finally, Philadelphia’s move up to 12.1 expected wins is notable, as the Eagles have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL. The Jaguars, in contrast, have the second easiest remaining schedule, which means a double-digit win season is now squarely in sight.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following 10 teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Win Division||Win Division Change|
|1||LA Rams||NFC West||53.6%||28.3%|
|4||New England||AFC East||88.6%||9.7%|
|5||New Orleans||NFC South||62.7%||8.7%|
A Rams win and a surprising Seahawks home loss now makes LAR the frontrunners in the division. Los Angeles has a one game lead in the NFC West over Seattle, giving them almost 10% better odds to win the division despite losing to the Seahawks by six points at the Coliseum in Week 5.
Jacksonville’s quest to win the AFC South is becoming closer to a reality each week. The Jaguars claimed a 23-7 win over Cincinnati in Week 9, while the aforementioned Texans lost to the Colts at home. Blake Bortles and company now have about a 2-in-3 chance to win the South.
Jacksonville has never won its division since the NFL expanded to the current eight division alignment in 2002, and the Jags have won their division only twice in their 23-year history — most recently in 1999.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following 10 teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Division||Make Playoffs||Make Playoffs Change|
|1||LA Rams||NFC West||77.1%||17.3%|
|9||New Orleans||NFC South||80.2%||6.8%|
|10||LA Chargers||AFC West||14.2%||3.6%|
For fans of NFL parity, it’s great to see uncommon playoff teams in three of the top four spots on the playoff odds increase list.
LA football fans could have Rams fever in January, with the team’s odds to make the playoffs up to 77% through eight games played. Looking ahead, the team’s future schedule is far from easy, ninth toughest about all NFL teams, but they have some room for error at 6-2.
Tennessee isn’t the favorite to win the AFC South, but they still have a strong chance of making the playoffs after defeating Baltimore in Week 9. Unlike the Rams, the Titans do have a relatively easy schedule ahead, ranked 10th easiest in football the rest of the way.
Detroit also saw a big increase in their playoff odds after beating the Packers in Green Bay, but they’re still far from likely to advance to the postseason. If there is reason for hope from the 4-4 Lions it’s that they have the easiest future schedule in the NFC, starting with a Week 10 home matchup against Cleveland.
Jacksonville is a near-lock at this point, and New Orleans at 80% playoff odds surely has folks in the Big Easy toasting their good fortune so far.
See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.
Here are three games on our radar screen for NFL Week 10, either for their excitement factor, importance to projections, betting line movement, or some/all of the above:
New Orleans at Buffalo
Sun 1:00pm ET
Two teams with playoff aspirations will meet on Sunday, as the 6-2 Saints face the 5-3 Bills. Buffalo suffered an upset loss to the Jets last Thursday, and the line for this matchup sat at Saints -3 as of Wednesday afternoon after opening at -2. With about 48% odds to make the playoffs going into Week 10, the Bills have a lot riding on this game. Our predictive ratings have the Bills as one point underdogs at home.
Minnesota at Washington
Sun 1:00pm ET
Minnesota remains the division leaders in the NFC North despite the losses of Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook. The Vikings visit Washington as just one point favorites as of Wednesday, but on a four-game winning streak in which their opponents have averaged less than 15 points per game. The Redskins are coming off a big 17-14 win at Seattle. Our predictive ratings see this game as a toss-up, with the Vikings favored by half a point.
Dallas at Atlanta
Sun 4:25pm ET
Dallas rolls into Atlanta with three straight wins, and have now scored at least 28 points in six straight games. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost four of their last five games, with their vaunted offense averaging only 16.6 points per game over that span. It may surprise some people, but Atlanta was a field goal favorite in the betting markets as of Wednesday. Our predictive ratings are significantly less optimistic about the Falcons in this matchup — but perhaps there’s something to be said for Atlanta’s motivation, sitting at 4-4 with seven NFC teams ahead of them and four other NFC teams sharing the same record. In addition, as of Thursday evening, Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot had been ruled suspended for this game.
Enjoy NFL Week 10, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 10 games, please check out our premium products:
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