Ravens, Texans Make AFC Noise — NFL Week 10 Rankings & Projections (2019)

Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson has helped the Ravens ascend atop the AFC North (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Baltimore and Houston.

NFL Week 10 Rankings Updates

Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 10. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:

TeamDivisionResultOld RankNew RankOld RatingNew RatingRating Change
BaltimoreAFC NorthW vs. New England 37-20843.85.51.7
HoustonAFC SouthW vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)1083.04.41.4
LA ChargersAFC WestW vs. Green Bay 26-1115110.92.11.2
MiamiAFC EastW vs. NY Jets 26-183232-15.5-14.51.0
ArizonaNFC WestL vs. San Francisco 28-252827-7.0-6.10.8

Baltimore beat the previously unbeaten Patriots in convincing fashion, and now rank No. 4 in our predictive ratings. However, that ranking still puts them just third in the AFC behind the Patriots and Chiefs.

The Chargers similarly had a surprise home victory vs. the previously hot Packers. LA still has a losing record at 4-5, but they’ve won back-to-back games against NFC North foes and at least on Sunday looked like the team many expected coming into the season.

See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.

NFL Week 10 Projected Wins Updates

Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 10:

TeamDivisionResultOld Proj WinsNew Proj WinsProj Wins Change
BaltimoreAFC NorthW vs. New England 37-2010.111.11.0
LA ChargersAFC WestW vs. Green Bay 26-116.77.40.8
MiamiAFC EastW vs. NY Jets 26-181.72.60.8
HoustonAFC SouthW vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)9.310.00.7
OaklandAFC WestW vs. Detroit 31-247.17.70.6

Baltimore gets a full win upgrade after their win over New England on Sunday night. The Patriots have had an easy early schedule, but have also been blowing out most of their opponents and entered Sunday’s game as 6-point favorites, according to our ratings.

Miami still ranks dead last in our ratings, but at least they won’t finish with a perfectly imperfect season after winning their first game. Their 2.6 win projection is still last in the NFL, trailing currently winless Cincinnati (2.9) and Washington (3.2), so they remain our favorite for the first pick in the 2020 draft.

Oakland held on vs. Detroit at home and are inching closer to an 8-win projection. That would be quite a turnaround for a squad that went 4-12 last season.

See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 10 Division Winner Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:

TeamDivisionResultOld Div Win OddsNew Div Win OddsDiv Win Odds Change
HoustonAFC SouthW vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)36.2%59.9%23.7%
BaltimoreAFC NorthW vs. New England 37-2071.6%86.4%14.8%
CarolinaNFC SouthW vs. Tennessee 30-2014.4%17.9%3.5%
LA ChargersAFC WestW vs. Green Bay 26-117.9%10.0%2.1%
MinnesotaNFC NorthL at Kansas City 26-2326.9%28.4%1.6%

Houston picked up a division victory over the Jaguars, and got a further boost in the AFC South when Indy fell to Pittsburgh, when Adam Vinatieri missed a field goal at the end of the game.

The Ravens are in great position in the AFC North, currently with a two-game lead over the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers and a four-game lead over the dysfunctional Browns. The Baltimore franchise is looking for its second straight division title after a five-year run without an AFC North title.

See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.

NFL Week 10 Playoffs Odds Updates

The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:

TeamDivisionResultOld Playoffs OddsNew Playoffs OddsPlayoffs Odds Change
HoustonAFC SouthW vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)64.6%82.1%17.5%
BaltimoreAFC NorthW vs. New England 37-2081.4%93.1%11.7%
CarolinaNFC SouthW vs. Tennessee 30-2027.0%35.7%8.8%
SeattleNFC WestW vs. Tampa Bay 40-3440.5%49.1%8.6%
PittsburghAFC NorthW vs. Indianapolis 26-2437.0%43.7%6.7%

The Texans are in good position to make the playoffs for the fourth time in head coach Bill O’Brien’s six seasons leading the team.

Baltimore (93%) is in even better position than Houston, and a playoff return would be head coach John Harbaugh’s eighth playoff appearance in 12 seasons.

The playoffs seemed almost unimaginable when Carolina and Pittsburgh lost their starting quarterbacks, but both teams still have a fighting chance after big wins on Sunday.

See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 10, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 10 games, please check out our NFL Survivor PicksFootball Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.