November 5, 2019 - by Seth Trachtman
Lamar Jackson now has to survive an extra week of games, and maybe another playoff opponent (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire)
In this post we highlight our biggest rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured big wins by Baltimore and Houston.
Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 10. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Rank||New Rank||Old Rating||New Rating||Rating Change|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W vs. New England 37-20||8||4||3.8||5.5||1.7|
|Houston||AFC South||W vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)||10||8||3.0||4.4||1.4|
|LA Chargers||AFC West||W vs. Green Bay 26-11||15||11||0.9||2.1||1.2|
|Miami||AFC East||W vs. NY Jets 26-18||32||32||-15.5||-14.5||1.0|
|Arizona||NFC West||L vs. San Francisco 28-25||28||27||-7.0||-6.1||0.8|
Baltimore beat the previously unbeaten Patriots in convincing fashion, and now rank No. 4 in our predictive ratings. However, that ranking still puts them just third in the AFC behind the Patriots and Chiefs.
The Chargers similarly had a surprise home victory vs. the previously hot Packers. LA still has a losing record at 4-5, but they’ve won back-to-back games against NFC North foes and at least on Sunday looked like the team many expected coming into the season.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2019 season heading into Week 10:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Proj Wins||New Proj Wins||Proj Wins Change|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W vs. New England 37-20||10.1||11.1||1.0|
|LA Chargers||AFC West||W vs. Green Bay 26-11||6.7||7.4||0.8|
|Miami||AFC East||W vs. NY Jets 26-18||1.7||2.6||0.8|
|Houston||AFC South||W vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)||9.3||10.0||0.7|
|Oakland||AFC West||W vs. Detroit 31-24||7.1||7.7||0.6|
Baltimore gets a full win upgrade after their win over New England on Sunday night. The Patriots have had an easy early schedule, but have also been blowing out most of their opponents and entered Sunday’s game as 6-point favorites, according to our ratings.
Miami still ranks dead last in our ratings, but at least they won’t finish with a perfectly imperfect season after winning their first game. Their 2.6 win projection is still last in the NFL, trailing currently winless Cincinnati (2.9) and Washington (3.2), so they remain our favorite for the first pick in the 2020 draft.
Oakland held on vs. Detroit at home and are inching closer to an 8-win projection. That would be quite a turnaround for a squad that went 4-12 last season.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Div Win Odds||New Div Win Odds||Div Win Odds Change|
|Houston||AFC South||W vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)||36.2%||59.9%||23.7%|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W vs. New England 37-20||71.6%||86.4%||14.8%|
|Carolina||NFC South||W vs. Tennessee 30-20||14.4%||17.9%||3.5%|
|LA Chargers||AFC West||W vs. Green Bay 26-11||7.9%||10.0%||2.1%|
|Minnesota||NFC North||L at Kansas City 26-23||26.9%||28.4%||1.6%|
Houston picked up a division victory over the Jaguars, and got a further boost in the AFC South when Indy fell to Pittsburgh, when Adam Vinatieri missed a field goal at the end of the game.
The Ravens are in great position in the AFC North, currently with a two-game lead over the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers and a four-game lead over the dysfunctional Browns. The Baltimore franchise is looking for its second straight division title after a five-year run without an AFC North title.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Playoffs Odds||New Playoffs Odds||Playoffs Odds Change|
|Houston||AFC South||W vs. Jacksonville 26-3 (N)||64.6%||82.1%||17.5%|
|Baltimore||AFC North||W vs. New England 37-20||81.4%||93.1%||11.7%|
|Carolina||NFC South||W vs. Tennessee 30-20||27.0%||35.7%||8.8%|
|Seattle||NFC West||W vs. Tampa Bay 40-34||40.5%||49.1%||8.6%|
|Pittsburgh||AFC North||W vs. Indianapolis 26-24||37.0%||43.7%||6.7%|
The Texans are in good position to make the playoffs for the fourth time in head coach Bill O’Brien’s six seasons leading the team.
Baltimore (93%) is in even better position than Houston, and a playoff return would be head coach John Harbaugh’s eighth playoff appearance in 12 seasons.
The playoffs seemed almost unimaginable when Carolina and Pittsburgh lost their starting quarterbacks, but both teams still have a fighting chance after big wins on Sunday.
See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.
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