November 8, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post we highlight our biggest NFL Week 10 rankings and predictions changes, after a week that featured impressive wins by the Falcons, Steelers, and Titans.
Here are the biggest increases in team predictive rating heading into Week 10. Our predictive ratings are measured in points, with a 0.0 rating equivalent to a “perfectly average” team on a neutral field:
|Team||Result||Old Rank||New Rank||Old Rating||New Rating||Rating Change|
|Atlanta||W 38-14 at WAS||15||12||0.6||2.1||1.5|
|San Francisco||W 34-3 vs. OAK||30||29||-5.8||-4.4||1.4|
|Chicago||W 41-9 at BUF||14||11||1.0||2.3||1.3|
|Tennessee||W 28-14 at DAL||24||21||-2.1||-1.1||1.0|
|Kansas City||W 37-21 at CLE||2||2||5.9||6.5||0.6|
Atlanta extended its winning streak to three games with an impressive 38-14 win at Washington. After a 1-4 start, the Falcons have made it back to .500.
The 49ers began Week 9 by clobbering the Raiders 34-3, led by third-string quarterback Nick Mullens. The 1.4-point increase still only moved up San Francisco one spot in our rankings, however.
The Chiefs still rank #2 after last week’s win at Cleveland, but have started to close the gap on the #1 ranked Rams with a 0.6-point gain and the Rams’ 0.5 point decrease. The Chiefs are now less than a point behind, with the much anticipated Chiefs vs. Rams showdown in Mexico City forthcoming in Week 11.
See where every team currently stands in our NFL rankings.
Here are the top gainers in projected total wins for the 2018 season heading into Week 10:
|Team||Result||Old Proj Wins||New Proj Wins||Proj Wins Change|
|Atlanta||W 38-14 at WAS||7.3||8.3||1.0|
|Tennessee||W 28-14 at DAL||7.0||8.0||1.0|
|San Francisco||W 34-3 vs. OAK||3.9||4.6||0.7|
|LA Chargers||W 25-17 at SEA||9.9||10.6||0.7|
|Pittsburgh||W 23-16 at BAL||9.7||10.4||0.7|
The aforementioned Falcons were 2.7-point underdogs on the road, according to last week’s ratings, so their unexpected win gave them a nice boost of +1 expected win.
Tennessee took down the Cowboys at Jerry World on Monday Night Football. Our ratings had the Titans as 6.3-point underdogs, while they were 6.5 underdogs in Vegas.
The Chargers continue to roll after a road win at Seattle, a contest in which they were 3.1-point underdogs, according to last week’s predictive ratings. The last time the organization finished with double-digit wins was 2009, but they have a great shot this year.
See our latest projected season win totals for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to win their division the most last week:
|Team||Division||Result||Old Div Win Odds||New Div Win Odds||Odds Change|
|Pittsburgh||AFC North||W 23-16 at BAL||51.3%||70.9%||19.6%|
|Chicago||NFC North||W 41-9 at BUF||36.9%||48.3%||11.4%|
|Tennessee||AFC South||W 28-14 at DAL||15.4%||20.5%||5.1%|
|New Orleans||NFC South||45-35 vs. LAR||71.1%||74.0%||2.9%|
Pittsburgh had a key victory at Baltimore, giving them a significant division edge over the Ravens and keeping their division lead over the Bengals. The Steelers and Ravens have now split this year’s head-to-head matchups.
Philadelphia benefited despite a bye week, as both Washington and Dallas lost games in which they were favored. The defending Super Bowl champs are still one game behind the Redskins but control their own destiny with two games left against the NFC East division leaders.
The Bears are back in prime position in the NFC North after demolishing Buffalo. Losses by division foes Green Bay and Detroit also helped their cause, but the Vikings remain on their tail with about a 38% chance to repeat as division champs.
See our latest division winner odds for all teams on our NFL projections.
The following teams increased their odds to make the playoffs the most last week:
|Team||Result||Old Playoffs Odds||New Playoffs Odds||Odds Change|
|Atlanta||W 38-14 at WAS||14.7%||32.9%||18.2%|
|Chicago||W 41-9 at BUF||51.1%||65.2%||14.1%|
|Pittsburgh||W 23-16 at BAL||71.8%||83.5%||11.7%|
|LA Chargers||W 25-17 at SEA||73.0%||84.5%||11.5%|
The Falcons saw the biggest increase in playoff odds, but they still have a long way to go. Their playoff odds are currently eighth best in the NFC, with division win odds that are minuscule due to 7-1 New Orleans and 6-2 Carolina ahead of them.
The Eagles are now about 50/50 to make the playoffs due in large part to the weak NFC East. It would be the first time the organization made the playoffs in back-to-back years since 2009-2010 if they can pull it off.
After a slow start, the odds for the Steelers are looking very good. Pittsburgh is hoping to make their fifth consecutive playoff appearance.
See our latest odds to make the playoffs for all teams on our NFL projections.
Enjoy NFL Week 10, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 10 games, please check out our premium products: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Pool Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
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