Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 4 + College Week 5

October 3, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman

This weekend features some great NFL and college football matchups — and, as always, the opportunity for some thrilling upsets.

Here’s a quick rundown of some intriguing upset possibilities for the weekend, based on our algorithmic game winner odds.

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight some games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks product
The teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly referring to college football here)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (e.g. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a couple of the following six teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not according to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/2, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 4 Games

Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Tampa Bay	vs. Carolina	CAR by 3	41.7%	8.0%

The public is hesitant to pick against the Panthers with a 3-0 record, but Carolina’s opponents (Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans) are a combined 1-8 this season. The Panthers also will be without defensive centerpiece Luke Kuechly again on Sunday.

Carolina at Tampa Bay Matchup

Houston (@ Atlanta)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Houston	at Atlanta	ATL by 6.5	32.0%	4.0%

As expected, the public pick percentage is extremely in favor of Atlanta given these teams’s respective records, but Atlanta is only four spots ahead of Houston in our margin-of-victory driven NFL predictive rankings. Houston is coming off their first win of the season, and are hoping for Arian Foster’s return on Sunday to give them a boost.

Houston at Atlanta Matchup

St. Louis (@ Arizona)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
St. Louis	at Arizona	ARI by 7	29.9%	3.0%

The Rams offense has been nothing short of inept the last two weeks and ranks dead last in total yards, while Arizona dominated San Francisco 47-7 last week. That recency bias seems to be causing the public to overlook the fact that the Rams have a strong defense, averaging fewer yards allowed per play (4.8) than the Cardinals (4.9).

St. Louis at Arizona Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 5 Games

Florida (vs. Ole Miss)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Florida	vs. Ole Miss	MISS by 7	31.5%	8.0%

Ole Miss is a 7-point favorite, and riding wave of accolades since beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa in Week 2. However, at home, the Rebels beat SEC doormat Vanderbilt last week by only 11 points, and they caught some luck in the Alabama game as well. Florida was lucky to escape with a win against Tennessee last week, and that perception could be causing the public to underrate their chances here.

Ole Miss at Florida Matchup

West Virginia (@ Oklahoma)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
West Virginia	at Oklahoma	OKLA by 6.5	34.2%	10.0%

Oklahoma only sits 0.6 points and three spots ahead of West Virginia in our college football predictive rankings, making the Sooners only about 4-point favorites with home-field advantage, according to the rankings. The public seems to be doubting an up and coming Mountaineers team that’s scored at least 40 points in each game thus far and demolished Maryland 45-6 last week.

West Virginia at Oklahoma Matchup

Minnesota (@ Northwestern)

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Minnesota	at Northwestern	NOR by 4.5	30.8%	5.0%

The Wildcats have come out on top in their two genius bowls, beating Stanford 16-6 in the season’s opening weekend and Duke 19-10 two weeks ago. Their calling card has been defense, but Minnesota has shown fine defense of their own. They held TCU to 23 points in the first week of the season and have won three consecutive games. The total on this one is 39.5, so it’s expected to be an old-fashioned Big Ten brawl.

Minnesota at Northwestern Matchup