TeamRankings.com
Get Smart About Sports
NFL Preseason Predictions 2019: Win Totals, Projected Standings, Super Bowl Odds
August 30, 2019 - by David Hess
(Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
Below are the TeamRankings 2019 NFL preseason predictions, including projected win/loss records and standings, playoff odds and Super Bowl win odds for all 32 teams.
We’ve also included a few highlights that stick out from the numbers, plus some tips on how to interpret these predictions.
Golf Pool Picks
Get an edge in your PGA Majors and One And Done pools
NFL Betting and Pool Picks:
Football Pick’em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
NFL Preseason Predictions Performance
Before we get to the 2019 predictions, a quick note on their historical accuracy. Significant year to year accuracy fluctuations are always possible, but so far our preseason NFL predictions have proven to be been quite solid.
Michael Lopez, the NFL’s current Director of Data and Analytics, found our preseason projections to be the most accurate system he studied in both 2013 and 2014. TeamRankings was also the only system he tracked that was more accurate than Vegas preseason win totals in both years.
Michael stopped his study after 2014, but we’ve continued to track our win/loss results against win totals lines from leading sportsbooks. From 2015-2018, when our projected win distribution indicated there was value on betting either the Over or the Under on an NFL team win total, our system’s implied “picks” have gone 52-43.
2019 NFL Preseason Predictions & Highlights
Remember that during the regular season and playoffs, we update these predictions every day on our NFL projected standings page.
Quick Links To Predictions By Conference:
AFC | NFC
Additional Info:
How do we come up with these predictions?
Exactly what do these numbers mean?
Why does our approach make sense?
AFC Preseason Predictions 2019
| AFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| New England | 10.9 | 5.1 | 80.9% | 71.6% | 25.2% | 12.1% |
| NY Jets | 7.4 | 8.6 | 26.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Buffalo | 7.3 | 8.7 | 24.5% | 12.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Miami | 5.0 | 11.0 | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| AFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Pittsburgh | 9.4 | 6.6 | 58.0% | 40.0% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
| Baltimore | 8.8 | 7.2 | 46.0% | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Cleveland | 8.7 | 7.3 | 45.6% | 27.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Cincinnati | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.6% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| AFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Houston | 8.4 | 7.6 | 42.9% | 31.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| Jacksonville | 7.9 | 8.1 | 35.8% | 24.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Tennessee | 7.9 | 8.1 | 34.6% | 24.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Indianapolis | 7.4 | 8.6 | 28.7% | 19.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| AFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Kansas City | 10.2 | 5.8 | 69.9% | 49.2% | 18.0% | 10.5% |
| LA Chargers | 9.8 | 6.2 | 62.4% | 38.6% | 12.8% | 7.3% |
| Denver | 6.8 | 9.2 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Oakland | 5.9 | 10.1 | 10.7% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Once again, our preseason predictions favor New England to earn the top seed in the AFC, despite the loss of star TE Rob Gronkowski, unless Coach Bill can lure him out of retirement…
However, this season there’s an important wrinkle. We actually rate the Patriots slightly lower than Kansas City in our 2019 NFL preseason rankings, but New England is the top seed favorite because of its advantageous schedule. New England plays six games against Buffalo, the NY Jets, and Miami, all teams expected to be bad. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have two games against the LA Chargers, who are No. 4 in our preseason rankings.
In addition, the Patriots again host the Chiefs this season. On account of home field advantage, New England projects as a slight favorite in that game based on our preseason ratings, and therefore also holds an advantage in a possible head-to-head tiebreaker scenario.
No. 1 Seed Odds:
New England (25.2%), with Kansas City (18.0%), LA Chargers (12.8%) and Pittsburgh (9.9%) all at roughly 10% or higher.
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
Jacksonville (from 5 to 7.9)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
Houston (from 11 to 8.4) and Indianapolis (from 10 to 7.4)
Most Expected Wins:
New England (10.9)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Miami (5.0)
NFC Preseason Predictions 2019
| NFC East | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Philadelphia | 9.9 | 6.1 | 66.8% | 53.9% | 15.1% | 6.6% |
| Dallas | 8.7 | 7.3 | 47.4% | 32.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| NY Giants | 6.2 | 9.8 | 13.4% | 7.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Washington | 5.8 | 10.2 | 10.7% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| NFC North | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| Green Bay | 8.7 | 7.3 | 45.3% | 29.6% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Chicago | 8.7 | 7.3 | 45.2% | 29.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
| Minnesota | 8.5 | 7.5 | 42.8% | 27.7% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| Detroit | 7.1 | 8.9 | 22.8% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| NFC South | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| New Orleans | 10.1 | 5.9 | 65.4% | 48.3% | 16.8% | 9.2% |
| Atlanta | 8.4 | 7.6 | 39.3% | 22.5% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Carolina | 8.1 | 7.9 | 35.2% | 19.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Tampa Bay | 6.8 | 9.2 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| NFC West | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | Top Seed | Win SB |
| LA Rams | 9.6 | 6.4 | 59.7% | 45.0% | 12.2% | 6.6% |
| Seattle | 8.5 | 7.5 | 42.8% | 28.5% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| San Francisco | 8.0 | 8.0 | 36.0% | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Arizona | 5.4 | 10.6 | 8.0% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Compared to the AFC, the NFC is slightly weaker at the top; three of our projected top four teams are in the AFC. However, the NFC has more depth; eight of our top 13 teams are in the NFC.
As a result, the race for the NFC’s top seed is more open. There’s about a 50/50 chance that the top seed in the NFC will end up being a team that’s not one of our four projected division winners: New Orleans, Philadelphia, LA Rams, and Green Bay (by the slimmest of margins over Chicago and Minnesota).
No. 1 Seed Odds:
New Orleans (16.8%), closely followed by Philadelphia (15.1%) and LA Rams (12.2%). Then six teams between 6% and 8% (Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas, Seattle).
Biggest Expected Increase In Wins:
San Francisco (from 4 to 8.0)
Biggest Expected Decline in Wins:
LA Rams (from 13 to 9.6), Chicago (from 12 to 8.7) and New Orleans (from 13 to 10.1)
Most Expected Wins:
New Orleans (10.1)
Fewest Expected Wins:
Arizona (5.4)
2019 Prediction Highlights
Worst to First?
Based on our 2019 preseason projections, which teams are most likely to go from worst in their division in 2018 to first in their divisions in 2019?
Since 2002, a last-place division finisher has jumped to first place the next season no less than 20 different times. That’s slightly more than 1 last-to-first jump per season, on average. Our projections give Jacksonville and Detroit the best odds of making it happen this year.
Of course, none of these teams are the favorites to win its division. But when you add up of all of the probabilities, you would expect a total of about 0.8 division winners from this group. So it would not be a surprise if one of the teams in the table below pulls it off.
| Team | Division | Odds to Win Division |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | AFC South | 24.4% |
| Detroit | NFC North | 13.3% |
| New York Jets | AFC East | 13.1% |
| Tampa Bay | NFC South | 9.3% |
| New York Giants | NFC East | 7.6% |
| Cincinnati | AFC North | 4.4% |
| Oakland | AFC West | 4.2% |
| Arizona | NFC West | 4.1% |
Will A Team Win Its First Ever Super Bowl Title?
Twelve different NFL franchises have never won a Super Bowl. Philadelphia in the 2017-18 season was the most recent first-time champion, and before that, Seattle in the 2013-14 season.
What are the chances another franchise gets its first title in 2019?
Again, add up all the probabilities and our predictions put the cumulative chance for a first-time NFL champion this season at 27.4%, slightly more than 1-in-4. The LA Chargers (7.3%), Minnesota (3.2%), Atlanta (3.1%), Houston (3.1%), and Cleveland (2.7%) are the most likely to do it.
For some perspective, our odds that either the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, or Pittsburgh Steelers wins the Super Bowl are just about the same, at 27.6%.
2019 NFL Playoffs Projections
Based on our preseason predictions, we can project the overall playoff picture for each conference at the close of the 2019 regular season.
AFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Average Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 10.9 | 80.9% |
| 2 | Kansas City | 10.2 | 69.9% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 9.4 | 58.0% |
| 4 | Houston | 8.4 | 42.9% |
| 5 | LA Chargers | 9.8 | 62.4% |
| 6 | Baltimore | 8.8 | 46.0% |
| Just Missed | Cleveland | 8.7 | 45.6% |
| Just Missed | Jacksonville | 7.9 | 35.8% |
Our numbers put Cleveland and Baltimore in a virtual dead heat for the final projected wild card spot in the AFC. In fact, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh are all so close that the divisional games between them are likely going to be extremely high leverage this year.
Interestingly, Houston, slotted in the fourth position, actually has lower odds of making the playoffs than Cleveland — but we have to put the top AFC South team in that slot. Houston’s overall playoff odds are lower because the Texans are much less likely to secure a wild card spot than Cleveland.
NFC Playoffs Picture
| Seed | Team | Average Projected Wins | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans | 10.1 | 65.4% |
| 2 | Philadelphia | 9.9 | 66.8% |
| 3 | LA Rams | 9.6 | 59.7% |
| 4 | Green Bay | 8.7 | 45.3% |
| 5 | Dallas | 8.7 | 47.4% |
| 6 | Chicago | 8.7 | 45.2% |
| Just Missed | Minnesota | 8.5 | 42.8% |
| Just Missed | Seattle | 8.5 | 42.8% |
The NFC has six teams projected for between 8.4 and 8.7 wins, and two other teams projected for around 8 wins. So the race for NFC wild card spots appears to be quite tight this season.
You may have noticed that we give Philadelphia a slightly higher chance of reaching the playoffs than New Orleans, but New Orleans is the projected top overall seed. That’s because the NFC South is tougher than the NFC East, so New Orleans’ chance of winning its division are lower. But when the Saints do win their division, they are still more likely (by a small margin) to get the NFC No. 1 seed.
How We Create Our 2019 NFL Preseason Predictions
As we noted in our explainer article on how we create NFL preseason rankings, we have identified a set of team-level metrics that have demonstrated utility for projecting a team’s upcoming season results.
We identified these metrics by reviewing 13 years worth of NFL data (2006-2018) and applying significance tests to any interesting looking findings. We built an algorithmic model that uses the metrics with predictive power as inputs, and computes a preseason predictive rating for all 32 NFL teams.
A team’s preseason rating signifies how good we think it will be this coming season. Figuring out how many games we expect that team to win or how likely it is to make the playoffs, however, is a more complicated problem. To do that, we run thousands of computer simulations of the 2019 NFL season, using our predictive ratings to come up with implied win odds for each game.
Thanks to randomness, each season simulation plays out differently. Occasionally an unheralded team like Washington or Cincinnati gets lucky, makes a run and once in a blue moon, even wins the Super Bowl.
Over thousands of simulation runs, though, patterns in the results begin to emerge. The 2019 NFL preseason predictions presented in this post represent the averages of the thousands of season simulations we conducted.
Exactly What Do These 2019 NFL Preseason Predictions Mean?
It’s important to understand how our system generates the results it does, and precisely what they mean. Here are the key details:
- We end up projecting a lot of fractional wins. That obviously can’t happen in real life. But we don’t want to reduce precision in the numbers just to make them look prettier. For example, a projected 9.6 win team has worse prospects than a projected 10.4 win team. If we rounded, they’d look the same (10 wins each).
- Even if we project a team with X wins, it doesn’t mean we’re highly confident they’ll end up with that exact number. Let’s say we project a team with exactly eight wins. In our season simulations, eight wins was probably the most common outcome. But that team may have ended up with either seven or nine wins nearly as often, plus a lower chance to hit five or 11 wins. Our final projection, since it’s an average of all those numbers, ends up at 8 wins. But the odds of the team ending up with exactly 8 wins could be as low as only 15% or so.
- NFL predictions can change slightly day-to-day, even with no new game results. Because we re-simulate the entire remaining 2019 season every day, randomness in simulation results may cause slight fluctuations in team projections from one day to the next, even if no new games have been played. So it’s wise not to read too much into tiny differences in our projections. A 0.2% difference in division winner odds between Green Bay and Chicago, for example, is not significant.
Why Is A Simulation-Driven Approach Valuable?
Despite some limitations, our data- and simulation-driven approach to making preseason NFL predictions has some clear advantages over alternative prediction methods.
Human NFL “experts” (some of them, at least) can be decent at projecting the future performance level of a team — especially one they’ve studied closely. But on the whole, humans tend to have a poor grasp of the potential impacts of probability and randomness over the course of a full NFL season.
For example, even knowledgable “football people” tend to underestimate a great team’s odds of losing to a mediocre or bad team. To simplify the process of projecting team win totals, people often group games into broad categories like “easy win,” “likely win,” “toss-up,” etc. The implicit assumption is that easy win = definite win.
While it’s true that a team like Seattle is unlikely to lose to a team like Cincinnati, upsets happen routinely in today’s NFL, and those small probabilities keep adding up game after game. So you can’t discount them, especially when division titles can be decided by just one win.
Running thousands of computer simulations of the 2019 NFL season, and directly observing the distribution of outcomes generated by all the various probabilities, is a much more objective and precise way to understand what is likely to happen.
If you’re in an NFL pool or you’re betting games this season, check out our Football Pick’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
Printed from TeamRankings.com - © 2005-2024 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.