April 30, 2012 - by Austin Link
Two weeks ago we published the first version of our 2012 NFL projected records. Now that the NFL Draft is over, we’ve added some info about projected starting quarterbacks (including Andrew Luck and RG3), and made a few general optimizations to our pre-season ratings, which means the second version is ready for perusal.
We’ve simulated the schedule thousands of times in order to predict win totals and playoff odds every NFL team. The 2011 version of these projections had good results, and this model should be even a little better.
The big picture generally looks the same as our first round of estimates, but there was a bit of movement. Here are a few notable teams whose projections have shifted the most.
The outlook for these teams looks rosier now that we’ve added info about starting quarterbacks and the draft.
Houston Texans
We forecast less than 8 wins for Houston in our first set of numbers, much worse than most people expected for the Texans. Our latest round now has them at 8.4 wins and a pretty clear favorite in the AFC South. We still see their good season last year as a little bit of a fluke; it just might be hard to notice because the AFC South is so weak.
Philadelphia Eagles
In these projections we were able to factor in Michael Vick, removing the lingering effects of Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb. We now project the Eagles to be the 4th best team in the NFL, and to have a 9% chance of winning the super bowl. Philly may have disappointed last year, but expect them to show up this season.
These teams took a hit once we adjusted for their projected starting quarterbacks.
Miami Dolphins
We overestimated Miami last year, but their recovery in the second half somewhat justified our optimism. We again project them to be on the positive side of .500 in 2012, but the quarterback position could be a big difference maker. Our projections are pessimistic about Ryan Tannehill’s rookie year — starting him, as we’ve assumed will happen here, costs the Dolphins about half a win compared to Matt Moore.
Indianapolis Colts
You may have heard — Peyton Manning is no longer suiting up for the Colts. That means their positive performances from two and three years need to be discounted. The QB adjustment is a bit conservative, because QB performance is difficult to predict. However, Manning was a machine, which means the formulas are still probably underestimating the impact of his absence a little.
Here is how the playoffs would play out, if these projections ended up being spot on:
Wild Card Round
– New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
– Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
– New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
– Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Division Round
– Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
– Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
– Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
– Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Conference Championships
– Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
– New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl
– New England Patriots over Green Bay Packers
Again these projections are not perfect, and we may make a couple adjustments in the next few months. If you are curious about them — or just plain disagree — let us know in the comments!
TeamRankings 2012 NFL Preseason Predictions (Version 2.0)
AFC East
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
New England 12.6 3.4 90% 71% 26% 1 27
NY Jets 8.9 7.1 41% 13% 3% 10 11
Miami 8.3 7.7 33% 10% 2% 14 18
Buffalo 7.8 8.2 26% 6% 1% 16 19
AFC North
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Pittsburgh 10.4 5.6 67% 47% 8% 2 12
Baltimore 9.6 6.4 54% 33% 6% 6 1
Cincinnati 7.5 8.5 26% 12% 1% 15 3
Cleveland 6.5 9.5 15% 7% 0% 22 2
AFC South
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Houston 8.4 7.6 48% 43% 2% 13 13
Tennessee 7.2 8.8 30% 25% 1% 17 8
Indianapolis 7.1 8.9 28% 23% 1% 21 22
Jacksonville 5.2 10.8 11% 9% 0% 31 10
AFC West
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Denver 9.1 6.9 51% 42% 4% 7 5
San Diego 8.6 7.4 44% 34% 2% 11 15
Oakland 6.8 9.2 20% 14% 1% 23 14
Kansas City 6.2 9.8 15% 10% 0% 26 9
NFC East
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Philadelphia 10.5 5.5 72% 56% 9% 4 16
NY Giants 8.8 7.2 48% 28% 4% 9 4
Dallas 6.8 9.2 21% 10% 1% 20 6
Washington 6.1 9.9 14% 6% 0% 28 7
NFC North
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Green Bay 10.9 5.1 77% 53% 10% 5 32
Detroit 9.7 6.3 59% 31% 4% 8 29
Minnesota 7.2 8.8 23% 8% 1% 24 31
Chicago 7.1 8.9 21% 7% 1% 25 30
NFC South
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
New Orleans 10.7 5.3 75% 60% 10% 3 26
Atlanta 8.7 7.3 44% 25% 3% 12 21
Carolina 6.3 9.7 17% 8% 0% 29 17
Tampa Bay 6.2 9.8 15% 7% 0% 30 23
NFC West
Team W L Playoffs Win Div Win SB TR Rank SOS Rank
Arizona 7.4 8.6 38% 33% 1% 18 24
San Francisco 7.4 8.6 37% 32% 1% 19 20
Seattle 6.7 9.3 29% 25% 1% 27 28
St. Louis 5.0 11.0 12% 10% 0% 32 25
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