2012 NFL Predicted Standings & Super Bowl Win Odds Version 2.0 | 2012 NFL Draft

posted in NFL

Two weeks ago we published the first version of our 2012 NFL projected records.  Now that the NFL Draft is over, we’ve added some info about projected starting quarterbacks (including Andrew Luck and RG3), and made a few general optimizations to our pre-season ratings, which means the second version is ready for perusal.

We’ve simulated the schedule thousands of times in order to predict win totals and playoff odds every NFL team. The 2011 version of these projections had good results, and this model should be even a little better.

The big picture generally looks the same as our first round of estimates, but there was a bit of movement.  Here are a few notable teams whose projections have shifted the most.

For The Better

The outlook for these teams looks rosier now that we’ve added info about starting quarterbacks and the draft.

Houston Texans

We forecast less than 8 wins for Houston in our first set of numbers, much worse than most people expected for the Texans.  Our latest round now has them at 8.4 wins and a pretty clear favorite in the AFC South.  We still see their good season last year as a little bit of a fluke; it just might be hard to notice because the AFC South is so weak.

Philadelphia Eagles

In these projections we were able to factor in Michael Vick, removing the lingering effects of Kevin Kolb and Donovan McNabb.  We now project the Eagles to be the 4th best team in the NFL, and to have a 9% chance of winning the super bowl.  Philly may have disappointed last year, but expect them to show up this season.

For The Worse

These teams took a hit once we adjusted for their projected starting quarterbacks.

Miami Dolphins

We overestimated Miami last year, but their recovery in the second half somewhat justified our optimism.  We again project them to be on the positive side of .500 in 2012, but the quarterback position could be a big difference maker.  Our projections are pessimistic about Ryan Tannehill’s rookie year — starting him, as we’ve assumed will happen here, costs the Dolphins about half a win compared to Matt Moore.

Indianapolis Colts

You may have heard — Peyton Manning is no longer suiting up for the Colts. That means their positive performances from two and three years need to be discounted. The QB adjustment is a bit conservative, because QB performance is difficult to predict. However, Manning was a machine, which means the formulas are still probably underestimating the impact of his absence a little.

Projected Playoffs

Here is how the playoffs would play out, if these projections ended up being spot on:

Wild Card Round

– New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
– Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
– New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
– Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Division Round

– Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
– Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
– Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
– Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Conference Championships

– Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
– New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Super Bowl

– New England Patriots over Green Bay Packers

Again these projections are not perfect, and we may make a couple adjustments in the next few months.  If you are curious about them — or just plain disagree — let us know in the comments!

TeamRankings 2012 NFL Preseason Predictions (Version 2.0)
AFC East
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
New England12.63.490%71%26%127
NY Jets8.97.141%13%3%1011
Miami8.37.733%10%2%1418
Buffalo7.88.226%6%1%1619
AFC North
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Pittsburgh10.45.667%47%8%212
Baltimore9.66.454%33%6%61
Cincinnati7.58.526%12%1%153
Cleveland6.59.515%7%0%222
AFC South
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Houston8.47.648%43%2%1313
Tennessee7.28.830%25%1%178
Indianapolis7.18.928%23%1%2122
Jacksonville5.210.811%9%0%3110
AFC West
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Denver9.16.951%42%4%75
San Diego8.67.444%34%2%1115
Oakland6.89.220%14%1%2314
Kansas City6.29.815%10%0%269
NFC East
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Philadelphia10.55.572%56%9%416
NY Giants8.87.248%28%4%94
Dallas6.89.221%10%1%206
Washington6.19.914%6%0%287
NFC North
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Green Bay10.95.177%53%10%532
Detroit9.76.359%31%4%829
Minnesota7.28.823%8%1%2431
Chicago7.18.921%7%1%2530
NFC South
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
New Orleans10.75.375%60%10%326
Atlanta8.77.344%25%3%1221
Carolina6.39.717%8%0%2917
Tampa Bay6.29.815%7%0%3023
NFC West
TeamWLPlayoffsWin DivWin SBTR RankSOS Rank
Arizona7.48.638%33%1%1824
San Francisco7.48.637%32%1%1920
Seattle6.79.329%25%1%2728
St. Louis5.011.012%10%0%3225