2012 NFL Futures: Value Picks For Regular Season Win Total Over-Unders

posted in NFL

Now that our final 2012 NFL projected standings are out, we can compare them with the offshore futures markets, and see if there are any good values to be found.

This post will take a look at team regular season win totals from Pinnacle Sports, and show you when our projections imply that a bet on the Over or Under has positive value. We did the same thing last season, and our picks went 15-9, and would have returned a healthy 30% ROI. Hopefully this year we’ll see similar success.

The table below lists the teams, their Pinnacle win total lines, and the payout odds associated with betting the Over or Under (lines were recorded on the afternoon of September 2nd, 2012). It also shows our average win forecast for each team, and how that forecast translates into Over, Under, and Push probabilities. Finally, we show which side of the lines our projections imply have value, and what the projected return on investment (ROI) would be for any of those bets.

TeamWins O/UOver LineUnder LineTR ProjOver%Push%Under%TR SideROI
Miami7.5+280-3458.463%--37%Over139%
Houston10-190+1618.421%13%66%Under99%
Dallas8.5-161+1376.826%--74%Under75%
Cleveland5.5+154-1816.565%--35%Over65%
Carolina7.5-155+1326.332%--68%Under57%
New Orleans10+150-17610.753%15%32%Over56%
Seattle7-232+1946.841%15%44%Under53%
Indianapolis5.5+105-1237.174%--26%Over52%
San Francisco10+125-1467.512%10%78%Under46%
NY Jets8.5+158-1868.956%--44%Over44%
Detroit9.5+164-1949.753%--47%Over39%
Minnesota6-108-1087.362%14%25%Over38%
Chicago9.5+126-1477.118%--82%Under37%
Kansas City8+123-1476.220%12%67%Under29%
Philadelphia10+119-13910.550%15%35%Over28%
New England12+108-12612.651%17%32%Over27%
Buffalo7.5-220+1857.956%--44%Under27%
St. Louis6-115-1015.131%15%54%Under26%
Atlanta9-121+1048.738%15%47%Under13%
Baltimore10+171-2029.635%15%50%Over13%
San Diego9+153-1808.637%15%48%Over10%
Arizona7+155-1836.636%15%48%Over9%
Jacksonville5.5-116-1015.246%--54%Under8%
Washington6.5-110-1066.145%--55%Under7%
Oakland7-114-1026.839%15%46%Under6%
Pittsburgh10-118+10110.448%15%37%Over4%
Tennessee7-158+1357.348%15%37%Under3%
Green Bay12+185-22011.025%16%59%Under2%
Denver8.5-167+1429.158%--42%Under1%
NY Giants9.5+143-1688.840%--60%----
Cincinnati8.5+180-2147.536%--64%----
Tampa Bay6-136+1166.247%15%38%----

There’s a pretty large margin of error on these projections, so for teams where our projections see less value, it may be prudent to dial back expectations, and lay off. Last season we used a cut off of 5%: any projected ROI under 5% was officially a “LAY OFF”.

We decided to go ahead and show you those under-5% picks this season, simply because we feel giving you more info is nearly always a good thing. Keep in mind, however, that keeping your money tied up all season in a bet that’s got a near-zero edge may not be an optimal investment strategy.

What team win total Over or Unders do you think look like good bets? Do you disagree with any of our picks above? Let us know in the comments.

  • Rich

    when will you be offering your selections for survivor picks …

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The first Survivor post should go up Tuesday.