NFL Week 15 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

December 13, 2018 - by Team Rankings

We’re back for NFL Week 15 with five picks that need to be on your radar screen if you want to win your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool. For a quick primer on value-driven picking in football pools, see our article on NFL pick’em pool strategy.

Through last week, TeamRankings subscribers have already reported over 1,300 weekly prize wins in football pick’em pools, a win rate 150% higher than expected. And last season, 81% of subscribers won a season or weekly prize in a football pick’em contest. Check out our College Bowl Pick’em Picks and Football Pick’em Pool Picks.

Week 15 Value Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools

The five NFL Week 15 picks listed below stand out based on their win odds and pick popularity. Deciding which way you want to go on these games should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 15 pick decisions.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific football pick’em pool depend on multiple factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick’em Picks product figures out the best pick strategy for you.

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Value Favorite

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Dallas)

The Colts are 3-point favorites at home against the Cowboys in a Week 15 game with important playoff implications for both teams. Indianapolis has won six of their last seven games, while Dallas is on a hot streak of its own, with five straight victories. When the Cowboys are doing well, they are one of the teams with a big nationwide fanbase, and Dallas is being picked by nearly 60% of the public in pick’em pools despite being the underdog. With Vegas-implied win odds for the Colts at 58%, picking Indianapolis lets you pick a favorite and get additional value from their relative unpopularity.

Favorites At A Reasonable Price

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Miami)

Minnesota, after nearly being shut out on Monday Night Football by, is favored by 7.5 points in the betting markets at home vs. Miami. With the Dolphins coming off their “Miami Miracle” win against New England, it’s not surprising that this week, the public isn’t overrating Minnesota as much as it typically overrates bigger favorites. At around 76% win odds and relatively close 86% pick popularity, it’s not worth taking the risk of picking against the Vikings here.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Detroit)

Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points at home against Detroit. Despite their 5-8 record, the Lions still have a very slim chance of making the playoffs. In a contest with two clearly below average teams, the public may tend to favor the team that is perceived to have more to play for. The betting markets have Buffalo’s implied win odds at around 55%, which is just slightly lower than their 57% popularity with the public. That’s close enough that if you’re looking for an upset pick, you should look elsewhere than Detroit (like the Browns below).

Value Gambles

Cleveland Browns (at Denver)

With no less than eight teams currently listed as 2.5 to 3.5-point underdogs this week, the Browns stand out from that pack as both one of the most likely teams to win (45% win odds) and one of the least popular picks as well (31% pick popularity). The public tends to perceive Denver as having a big home field advantage, but the location of this game is no secret, and that advantage should already be priced into the betting line. Outside of a slip-up against San Francisco last week, the Broncos have been playing well, but Cleveland had also turned a corner and is 3-1 in its last four games.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)

The 49ers are a 3.5-point underdog at home against divisional foe Seattle, after opening as a 6-point underdog. The Seahawks are now a surprising playoff contender thanks to their four-game winning streak, and Seattle is coming off a dominant defensive performance against the Vikings in Week 14. Seattle can clinch a playoff spot with a win in San Francisco, and the public generally likes to pick a hot team with perceived motivation. Unsurprisingly, San Francisco is one of the most unpopular picks in pick’em pools nationwide, at only 6% pick popularity. That’s wildly low for a team that isn’t that big of an underdog, and has about a 35% chance to win according to both Vegas odds and our models. If you need to make up a lot of ground in the standings or are playing in a weekly prize pool, the Niners are almost certainly your smartest available gamble this week.

Which Of These NFL Week 15 Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all of them, maybe just some of them. We’re not dodging the question — the reality is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pool Picks product to do all the number crunching for you, and figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it will customize Week 15 pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.

Here’s how it works:

First, we use data from national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team.
Then, we compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you’re in a point spread pool) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public.
Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool’s size and rules.

The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81% of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick’em contest, and over the long term our customers are winning pools at rates that blow away expectations.

Enjoy NFL Week 15, and if you’re in a football pool or planning on betting some games, check out our college bowl pick’em picks, NFL pick’em pool picks, and NFL betting picks.