November 19, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
Jimmy Garoppolo considering picking himself and the 49ers in Pick'em for Week 12 (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)
Our projected win odds favorites rolled last week in the NFL, winning 12 of 14 games. Those results didn’t come without plenty of drama, though. Minnesota rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit, San Francisco got a late touchdown to take the lead against Arizona, and Oakland held off winless Cincinnati by only a touchdown. We’ll get to the value opportunities this week shortly, but first, let’s quickly summarize last week’s selections in this piece.
Last week, we highlighted two potential upset picks, the Eagles over Patriots and Falcons over Panthers, and also highlighted three different favorites (Browns, Colts, and Bills). The Eagles lost both of their offensive tackles over the course of the game, and could not get a final touchdown against the Patriots, losing 17-10. The Falcons, on the other hand, pulled off the largest upset of the week by point spread, as they dominated Carolina 29-3.
Cleveland was being picked by less than half the public, but Myles Garrett and the Browns smashed the Steelers. The Colts and Bills (like most other favorites in the week) also won. As a result, the highlighted picks went 4-1, while the public would have averaged 2.9 wins in those same games, based on public picking data.
Using Vegas odds, data-driven predictions, and pick popularity data from national football pick’em contests, we’ve analyzed the entire NFL Week 12 slate and identified the best value picking opportunities. This week, early pick popularity numbers show several games where the public is strongly on one side in matchups that the oddsmakers think are far closer to even.
Keep in mind that we are not saying that you should make all five of the picks below. The best Week 12 picks for your NFL pool depend on characteristics such as its size, rules, and prize structure; our Football Pick’em Picks product will recommend weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 12 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
Note: Win odds and pick popularity estimates below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Week 12 features two favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no brainer picks” in NFL pick’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side.
The San Francisco 49ers lost their first game two weeks ago at home to Seattle, then survived last week against Arizona, so they don’t appear to be coming in on their best form, and maybe the public is a little down on San Francisco. They are still third in point differential at +140 for the season, well ahead of their opponent this week, Green Bay.
The point spread on this game is San Francisco by 3 points at home, and our models put their win odds at 59%. The public, meanwhile, is picking the 49ers 54.5% of the time in early public picking data. The public is picking the 49ers less less often than their win odds, a situation that gives you both the favorite and the chance to gain on a significant chunk of the public if you win.
San Francisco is not the only value favorite this week where that is the case, though, as there is one favorite that is being picked by less than half the public.
Get all of our premium articles, tools and picks for only $19/week.
Printed from TeamRankings.com - © 2005-2019 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.