NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

November 15, 2018 - by Team Rankings

Week 11 NFL Pick'em Picks

We’re back for NFL Week 11 with five picks that need to be on your radar screen if you want to win your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool. For a quick primer on value-driven picking in football pools, see our article on NFL pick’em pool strategy.

Through NFL Week 10, TeamRankings subscribers have already reported over 1,100 weekly prize wins in football pick’em pools, a win rate 180% higher than expected. And last season, 81% of subscribers won a season or weekly prize in a football pick’em contest. How? They used our Football Pick’em Pool Picks.

Week 11 Value Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools

The five NFL Week 11 picks listed below stand out based on their win odds and pick popularity. Deciding which way you want to go on these games should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 11 pick decisions.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific football pick’em pool depend on multiple factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick’em Picks product figures out the best pick strategy for you.

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data (taken from Yahoo!) quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Value Favorites

Carolina Panthers (at Detroit)

The Panthers are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Lions this week. After giving up 52 points in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh last week, it’s not surprising that the public is not too keen on picking Carolina. In both pick’em and survivor pools, people often have a recency bias where they overreact to the most recent event. Despite their loss last week, Carolina (at 6-3) is still an above average team and Detroit is a below average team. With only 33% of the public’s picks on Carolina, picking the Panthers lets you both pick the favorite and get a lot of value from the nearly 36% difference between Carolina’s win odds (69%) and their public popularity.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville)

Coming off a big win last week, the Steelers are 5-point favorites at the Jaguars in Week 11. With three other AFC teams (Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots) all having more wins than the Steelers so far this season, the Steelers may be a little overlooked in the discussion about top AFC contenders. The Vegas line implies over 68% win odds for Pittsburgh, yet only 29% of the public is picking the Steelers. To look at this another way, Jacksonville isn’t a great upset pick candidate this week, because teams like Tennessee and Tampa Bay both have better win odds than Jacksonville, and are being picked by a lower percentage of the public.

Houston Texans (at Washington)

The Texans, favored by 2.5 points over the Redskins, are another road favorite this week. Washington held Tampa Bay to 3 points last week, so recency bias may be boosting Washington’s pick popularity a bit this week. Both teams have 6-3 records, so a lot of pool players may just default to picking the home team if they don’t have a strong opinion about the game. But with Vegas-implied win odds of about 58% and a public pick percentage of only 25%, picking Houston allows you to pick both the favorite and the less popular team.

Chicago Bears (vs Minnesota)

Finally we get to a value favorite this week who is actually playing at home. The Bears, 2.5-point favorites at home against the Vikings, are another good choice this week. Chicago has scored over 30 points in three of its last four games; this isn’t the same offensively challenged Chicago team that the public may be remembering from past years. Vegas has the Bears at 56% implied win odds, but only 47% of public picks are on the Bears. The public often displays some superstitions when it comes to divisional games, but objective data is what wins pools. Picking the Bears lets you pick the team that’s more likely to win, while also getting some value from Chicago’s +9% differential between win odds and pick popularity.

Value Gamble

Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis)

Tennessee, 2-point underdogs on the road at Indianapolis, looks like a solid value gamble this week. It’s surprising that the Titans’ pick popularity isn’t higher after their impressive victory over the Patriots last week, but who knows what the public could be thinking. TE Rob Gronkowski was out; New England seems to have one or two games each season where they substantially underperform; the “revenge factor” in play last week, with Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler going against their former team, is no longer there. Regardless, with Tennessee at over 45% win odds according to Vegas (and our models even slightly more optimistic on their winning chances), the Titans are worth strong consideration in weekly prize pools that reward more risk-taking. Only 22% of the public is picking Tennessee, so going with the Titans gives you a great potential opportunity to gain ground on your competitors if they pull off the upset.

Which Of These NFL Week 11 Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all of them, maybe just some of them. We’re not dodging the question — the reality is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pool Picks product to do all the number crunching for you, and figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it will customize Week 11 pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.

Here’s how it works:

  • First, we use data from national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team.
  • Then, we compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you’re in a point spread pool) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public.
  • Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool’s size and rules.

The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81% of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick’em contest, and over the long term our customers are winning pools at rates that blow away expectations.

You can find more information about our premium NFL products at the following pages: Football Pick’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.