Wichita State vs. Notre Dame Matchup Preview: Key Numbers

March 26, 2015 - by Aaron Barzilai

The first game on tonight’s docket is projected to be the closest: 3 seed Notre Dame vs 7 seed Wichita State. The teams tip off at 7:15PM Eastern in Cleveland, expecting that victory will bring a game against overwhelming favorite Kentucky in the Midwest Regional Final on Saturday.

Though some might see that as a dubious reward since either Notre Dame or Wichita State would only have a 15% chance to win against Kentucky, both teams also would relish the opportunity to hand Kentucky its first loss, particularly Wichita State given their battle last year against the Wildcats.

Despite the seeding, Wichita State is the slight favorite tonight. The offshore betting markets currently favor Wichita State by two points, and our models give them a 51% chance to emerge victorious.

Wichita State on Offense

The Shockers are in the top 10% in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.5 points per 100 possessions to rank 28th. Notre Dame’s defensive efficiency is slightly above average, allowing 98.9 points per 100 possessions to rank 151st. Exploiting this advantage can help Wichita State earn the victory.

There is really only one aspect of Wichita State’s offense that stands out: an exceptionally low turnover rate. They are 5th in the country there, turning the ball over on just 12.7% of their plays. Notre Dame is poor at forcing turnovers as they rank only 281st in the country, so it would be a surprise if Wichita State had double-digit turnovers again as they did facing Kansas in the Round of 32.

Wichita State also offensively rebounds relatively well, gathering 33% of their own misses. That ranks 49th in the country. Notre Dame is a below average defensive rebounding team, so Wichita has a chance to take advantage of this strength as well.

Wichita State is good but not great at other aspects of offense:

  • Their effective FG% of 50.6% ranks 96th in the country
  • They’re not exceptionally good or bad from long range (92nd in the nation with a 35.9 3P%), when shooting two pointers (114th with a 48.9% 2P%) or at the line (70.3% FT% which ranks 140th)
  • Neither free throws nor three pointers are an unusual fraction of their offense.

Notre Dame’s biggest strength on defense is not fouling. The Irish only allow 0.235 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, which ranks 2nd in the country. Preventing those free points from the charity stripe is a key advantage. Since Wichita State is only average in drawing fouls, the Shockers are unlikely to have a lot of opportunities from the line tonight.

Notre Dame on Offense

Notre Dame has the 2nd most efficient offense in the country behind only Wisconsin. The Irish score 118.0 points per 100 possessions. However, Wichita State is 8th in the country defensively allowing just 88.8 points per 100 possessions. This will be a battle of strength against strength.

Notre Dame’s success offensively is a result of excelling at two of the fundamentals of basketball: shooting and protecting the ball.

  • Notre Dame’s 58.4% effective field goal percentage ranks 2nd in the country. They lead the country in 2P% at 58.3% and are 20th from long range with a 38.9% 3P%.
  • They’re also shooting 74.0% from the free throw line to rank 31st in the nation.
  • They are above average in 3P rate, ranking 78th (38% of their field goal attempts are three point attempts)
  • They’re essentially average at getting to the line (161st with 0.373 free throw attempts per field goal attempt)
  • They rank 6th in the country by allowing turnovers on just 12.8% of their offensive plays

Wichita State has a number of strengths on defense to challenge Notre Dame’s offense. Highlights include:

  • Wichita State ranks 8th in the nation at defending two pointers, allowing teams to shoot just 42.1%. It will be interesting to see if they can neutralize Notre Dame’s strength in that realm.
  • The Shockers are one of the better teams in the country at forcing turnovers. They rank 28th in the nation at opponent turnover rate (18.8% of opponent plays end in a turnover) and are 2nd in steal rate swiping the ball on 5.5% of their opponents’ plays. Again, which team’s strength can prevail will be fascinating to watch and could be the key to the game.

Conclusion

Tonight’s game should be a great matchup between two evenly matched teams. This will be particularly true when Notre Dame has the ball and one of the nation’s top 10 offenses confronts a top 10 defense.

If Wichita State can play to a draw on that side of the floor, they have a chance to take advantage of the Irish offensively. The point guard battle ought to be particularly notable as the smaller Fred VanVleet has yet another opportunity to show he can outplay a future pro in Notre Dame’s 6’5″ Jerian Grant. VanVleet has proved people wrong in the past and has the chance to lead his team to the Elite 8 tonight.