Only 3 Top Teams Besides Kentucky Expected To Win Out
March 4, 2015 - by Aaron Barzilai
There’s been a lot of talk this year about Kentucky’s chances to go undefeated for the rest of the season. After last night’s win against Georgia, we project the Wildcats now have a 24% chance to be undefeated National Champions.
The focus of most other teams is getting to Selection Sunday in the best position possible. To do this, they need to win their remaining regular season games (if any) and then win their conference tournament.
Since our simulation models generate 2015 NCAA conference tournament bracket projections in addition to our regular season projections for an individual team such as Kentucky, we can look at which of the top teams are most and least likely to win out until Selection Sunday.
Below you will find our full chart for the 20 teams we currently project to have the highest seeds according to our algorithmic bracketology predictions.
Four Teams Expected To Win The Rest Of Their Games
Kentucky has the highest odds to remain undefeated until Selection Sunday despite playing in a power conference.
Gonzaga has a 71% chance to win out ahead of the selection show. We currently project Gonzaga as a 2 seed but they are in the best position to benefit if a team above them from a power conference stumbles in their conference tournament.
Villanova and Wichita State are the only other teams that have better than a 50% chance to run the table until the NCAA Tournament.
Utah Has Outside Shot To Go Undefeated, Boost 2015 NCAA Bracket Seeding
After Kentucky and Arizona, the power conference team with the third best chance to remain undefeated until Selection Sunday is Utah. There is only a 27% chance the Utes will pull it off, but if they do, it means they probably would have added wins against Oregon and Arizona to their resume. At that point, we’d see them as a 3 seed based on our current bracketology projection for Utah.
Kansas, Duke, Other Top Teams Very Likely To Lose
Believe it or not, none of the 14 other leading NCAA teams listed in the table below have better than a 16% chance to go undefeated between now and Selection Sunday. So we expect a few of them to get lucky and win out, but the majority should lose at least one more time before the 2015 NCAA tournament.
By virtue of playing in the Big 12, Kansas is the least likely team to win out among the teams currently projected as a 1 or 2 seed. The Jayhawks are unlikely to be favored this Saturday at Oklahoma. Additionally, our Big 12 conference tournament bracket projection gives them only a 24% chance to win the tournament because of the strength of the conference.
Wisconsin is currently ranked 3rd in our 2015 NCAA basketball predictive ratings, but the Badgers have a challenging schedule remaining. They have two regular season games left, including Ohio State, then face a strong field in their conference tournament. Our Big Ten conference tournament bracket predictions give Wisconsin a 43% chance to win that tournament, but they are likely to play Maryland or Ohio State along the way, and potentially both. As a result, we predict there is only a 13% chance they’ll remain unscathed until Selection Sunday. If Wisconsin does lose, it will be interesting to see if the NCAA selection committee drops them below a 2 seed.
Odds To Win Out For 20 Top NCAA Teams
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