Conference Tournament and NCAA Bracketology Tracker For 2019

March 17, 2019 - by Seth Trachtman

Here’s a running list of all the latest daily updates on NCAA conference tournament results and predictions, as well as our 2019 bracketology predictions.

BRACKET PICKS: Our premium subscribers have reported more than $1.1 million in bracket pool winnings since 2017, and 63% of them won a prize in bracket pool last year. Check out our NCAA bracket picks for 2019.

Sunday, March 17

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 6
Ending today: 6 (American, Atlantic 10, Big Ten, Ivy, SEC, Sun Belt)

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

A whopping 14 NCAA tournament bids were awarded yesterday:

💥 Duke (ACC)
No. 3 seed Duke defeated No. 4 seed Florida State 73-63 to win the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils got another big performance from Zion Williamson, who scored 21 points. Entering the tournament, Duke was our favorite to win with a 35% chance. They hope to have done enough to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

💥 Vermont (America East)
No. 1 seed Vermont easily took care of No. 3 seed UMBC 66-49, after being upset by UMBC in last year’s America East final. Vermont was the overwhelming favorite entering the tournament with 69% odds to win. They return to the Big Dance after earning a No. 13 seed in 2017.

💥 Iowa State (Big 12)
No. 5 seed Iowa State took down No. 3 seed Kansas 78-66 in Kansas City. The Cyclones had a 16% chance of winning the conference tournament when it started, third best behind Texas Tech and Kansas.

💥 Villanova (Big East)
No. 1 seeded Villanova continues to win championships. The defending national champs squeaked by No. 3 seed Seton Hall 74-72, winning their third straight Big East title. Villanova got a well-rounded effort from forward Saddiq Bey, who scored 16 points and had 10 rebounds.

💥 Montana (Big Sky)
No. 1 seed Montana won the Big Sky for the second straight year, taking down No. 3 seed Eastern Washington 68-62. We gave Montana a 42% chance to win the Big Sky tournament when it started, best among all teams.

💥 (Big West)
No. 1 seed UC Irvine cruised to a 92-64 win over. No. 3 seed CSU Fullerton. UC Irvine was our tourney favorite, and we gave them a 52% chance to win the tournament when it began.

💥 Old Dominion (Conference USA)
No. 1 seed Old Dominion beat No. 2 seed Western Kentucky 62-56 with the help of a 16-point performance from guard Xavier Green. We gave the Monarchs a 24% chance to win the tournament when it began, tops in the conference.

💥 Buffalo (MAC)
No. 1 seed Buffalo had a 58% chance to win the MAC tournament when it started, and took care of business by beating No. 3 seedBowling Green 87-73 in the final. Buffalo guard Jeremy Harris had a spectacular game with 31 points.

💥 North Carolina Central (MEAC)
No. 3 seed North Carolina Central pulled off the upset in a defensive slugfest over No. 1 seed Norfolk State, 50-47. Norfolk State scored only 15 points in the second half. North Carolina Central had 25% odds to win the MEAC tourney when it started, second best behind Norfolk State (33%).

💥 Utah State (MWC)
No. 2 seed Utah State halted a developing Cinderella story by sending No. 5 seed San Diego State packing. San Diego State had upset No. 1 seed Nevada on Friday. Utah State won 64-57 with the help of 24 points from guard Sam Merrill.

💥 Oregon (Pac-12)
The Ducks will quack again in the NCAA tournament. No. 6 seedOregon beat No. 1 seed Washington 68-48 to get an auto-bid. While the game was an upset in terms of seeding, we actually gave Oregon a 52% chance to win, and they were 2-point favorites in Vegas.

💥 Abilene Christian (Southland)
No. 2 seed Abilene Christian is headed to their first Big Dance after beating No. 4 seed New Orleans 77-60 in the Southland final. Abilene Christian had a conference-best 41% chance to win this tourney when it started.

💥 Prairie View (SWAC)
No. 1 seed Prairie View won a high-scoring 92-86 game over No. 2 seed Texas Southern. The result was a bit of an upset, as Texas Southern was a 2-point favorite, and we had given them a 53% chance to win.

💥 New Mexico State (WAC)
No. 1 seed New Mexico State will mike their eighth trip to the Big Dance since 2010 after crushing No. 3 seed Grand Canyon 89-57. New Mexico State has yet to win an NCAA tournament game during their great run, but their current 30-4 record is the best they’ve had entering the tournament.

Results Of Note

Kentucky Falls To Tennessee
SEC No. 2 seed Kentucky had a 56% chance to get a top seed in the NCAA tournament going into yesterday’s SEC semifinals vs. Tennessee. After losing to the Vols, it remains to be seen how the Selection Committee will react. Going in, we gave Tennessee slightly better odds to win the SEC tourney than Kentucky, and gave Kentucky only a 48% chance to win yesterday. However, Kentucky was a 1-point favorite in Vegas.

Underdogs Win Again In A-10
The A-10 tournament has been a wild ride, and the end result will end one bubble team’s chance of making the NCAA tournament. No. 1 seed VCU and No. 3 seed Dayton were eliminated in the quarterfinals. Yesterday, both Vegas underdogs won in the semifinals, as No. 6 seed Saint Louis defeated No. 2 seed Davidson, and No. 4 seed Saint Bonaventure defeated No. 8 seed Rhode Island. It will be the Billikens vs. the Bonnies for the title today, two squads with combined odds of about 10% to win this tourney when it started.

Sun Belt Favorite Loses In Semis
No. 3 seed Georgia Southern was the Sun Belt favorite heading into the semifinals, with a 38% chance to win the tourney. However, they lost to No. 2 seed Texas Arlington 67-58, setting up a Sun Belt final today between Texas Arlington and No. 1 seed Georgia State.

2. Conference Tourney Predictions

Auto Bids Decided Today

American
No. 1 seed Houston takes on No. 2 seed Cincinnati at 3:15pm ET. We give Houston a 64% chance to win, and they’re 5-point favorites in Vegas.

Atlantic 10
No. 4 seed Saint Bonaventure will take on No. 6 seed Saint Louisfor a bid to the NCAA tournament at 1pm ET. We give Saint Louis a 53% chance to win, but Vegas favors the Bonnies by 1.5 points.

Big Ten
The Big Ten will be decided in an interstate battle between No. 1 seed Michigan State and No. 3 seed Michigan at 3:30pm ET. Michigan is favored by 1 point, though we give the Spartans a 57% chance to win.

Ivy
The winner at the smart kids table will be decided between No. 1 seed Harvard and No. 2 seed Yale at 12:00pm ET. Yale has the 4.5-point edge in Vegas, and we give them a 69% chance to win.

SEC
No. 3 seed Tennessee, coming off a big win vs. No. 2 seed Kentucky, will face No. 5 seed Auburn for the SEC Championship at 1:00pm ET. We give Tennessee a 61% chance to win, and they are 5.5-point favorites.

Sun Belt
No. 1 seed Georgia State plays No. 2 seed Texas Arlington for the Sun Belt title at 2:00pm ET. Georgia State is a 4-point favorite in the betting markets, and we give them a 65% chance to win.

All Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for all undecided conference tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses:

IN FINALS:
American: No. 1 Houston (63.6%)
Atlantic 10: No. 6 Saint Louis (53.2%) new fave
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan St (57.0%)
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (68.9%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (61.1%)
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia St (65.1%) new fave

3. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

1. Murray State (OVC)
2. Liberty (ASUN)
3. Gardner-Webb (Big South)
4. Bradley (MVC)
5. Iona (MAAC)
6. Wofford (Southern)
7. Northeastern (CAA)
8. Northern Kentucky (Horizon)
9. Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast)
10. North Dakota State (Summit)
11. Saint Mary’s (WCC)
12. Colgate (Patriot)
13. Duke (ACC)
14. Vermont (America East)
15. Iowa State (Big 12)
16. Villanova (Big East)
17. Montana (Big Sky)
18. UC Irvine (Big West)
19. Old Dominion (C-USA)
20. Buffalo (MAC)
21. North Carolina Central (MEAC)
22. Utah State (MWC)
23. Oregon (Pac-12)
24. Abilene Christian (Southland)
25. Prairie View (SWAC)
26. New Mexico State (WAC)

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. North Carolina Central 100.0% (+57.3%)
2. Prairie View 100.0% (+53.2%)
3. Old Dominion 100.0% (+46.5%)
4. Georgia State 68.2% (+37.4%)
5. Saint Louis 53.2% (+33.0%)
6. Abilene Christian 100.0% (+30.1%)
7. Saint Bonaventure 46.8% (+27.2%)
8. Harvard 55.2% (+27.2%)
9. UC Irvine 100.0% (+24.6%)
10. Texas Arlington 34.9% (+23.2%)

North Carolina Central, Prairie View, Old Dominion, Abilene Christian, and UC Irvine each locked up NCAA tournament bids by winning their conference tournaments yesterday.

Georgia State, Saint Louis, Saint Bonaventure, Harvard, and Texas Arlington will have the opportunity to do the same today.

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Norfolk State 0.0% (-57.3%)
2. Texas Southern 0.0% (-53.2%)
3. Western Kentucky 0.1% (-50.1%)
4. Grand Canyon 0.0% (-38.6%)
5. Georgia Southern 0.0% (-37.6%)
6. San Diego State 0.0% (-33.0%)
7. Davidson 50.2% (-30.8%)
8. New Orleans 0.0% (-30.1%)
9. CSU Fullerton 0.0% (-27.3%)
10. Texas State 0.0% (-22.7)

Nine out of 10 teams on today’s Losers list have almost no chance of making the Big Dance after losing in their conference tournaments yesterday.

Davidson is the only team on the list with a fighting chance, but their odds were certainly hurt by losing to Saint Louis yesterday.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 93% (-1%)
2. North Carolina 57% (-5%)
3. Kentucky 51%(-5%)
4. Duke 48% (+5%)
5. Michigan State 34% (+2%)
6. Gonzaga 27% (-1%)
7. Houston 24% (+2%)
8. Tennessee 24% (+4%)
9. LSU 22% (+1%)
10. Michigan 12% (+1%)

Kentucky’s chances of a No. 1 seed were hurt by losing to Tennessee, while Duke did all it could by winning the ACC tournament. Michigan State has a chance to help their cause in the Big Ten final vs. Michigan today.

Saturday, March 16

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 20
Ending today: 14
Starting today: 1 (Ivy)

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

None

Results Of Note

No. 1 Virginia Falls
A likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament, Virginia lost 69-59 to No. 4 seed Florida State in the conference semifinals. Florida State was able to solve Virginia’s vaunted defense, shooting nearly 57 percent from the field and led by guard David Nichols’ 14 points in 22 minutes. Florida State moves on to play No. 3 seed Duke, which defeated No. 2 seed North Carolina74-73 in the ACC Championship game today. Freshman star Zion Williamson scored 31 points against UNC.

No. 1 LSU Loses
SEC No. 1 seed LSU entered the tournament with severe distractions after head coach Will Wade was suspended, and lost to No. 8 seed Florida 76-73 on Friday. LSU freshman Naz Reid had a great effort with 26 points and 14 rebounds, but it wasn’t enough after Florida scored 51 points in the second half. Florida’s Andrew Nembhard made a three pointer with one second left that effectively sealed the game, and finished with 20 points. Our projections had given top-seeded LSU only a 10% chance to win this tourney, and Florida was just a 4-point underdog in Vegas in this contest. Florida will now play No. 5 seed Auburn today in the SEC semifinals.

Big Losses In A-10
The Atlantic 10 tournament looks wide open after No. 1 seed VCU and No. 3 seed Dayton both bowed out in the quarterfinals. Combined, those two teams had nearly a 60% chance to win the tourney, but now No. 2 seed Davidson is the odds-on favorite with a 39% chance to win. VCU lost to No. 8 seed Rhode Island 75-70, while Dayton lost to No. 6 seed Saint Louis 64-55. Davidson was squarely on the bubble entering the tournament, but probably has a bit more work to do before their fans should celebrate. They face Saint Louis today.

Minnesota Gets Key Win
Fans of Minnesota should be able to breathe easier after the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten tournament upset No. 2 seed Purdue 75-73 yesterday; Minnesota was a 10-point underdog in the betting markets. Coming into the game, our models gave Minnesota a 62% chance to make the Big Dance, but their chances to land an NCAA bid are now up to 93% following this win. Minnesota now moves on to face No. 3 seed Michigan in the semifinals.

No. 1 Nevada Gets Upset
The bubble got a potential shakeup on Friday after No. 1 seed Nevada lost to No. 5 seed San Diego State 65-56 in the Mountain West semifinals. San Diego State entered the game as 10.5-point underdogs, but took advantage of a big day by senior Devin Watson (20 points) and poor shooting by Nevada (38% from the field). Still, the Aztecs almost certainly must win the MWC tourney to get into the NCAA tournament. Our ratings give San Diego State a 33% chance to beat No. 2 seed Utah State in the final tonight — not great, but far better than the 4% odds they had to win this tourney at the start.

2. Conference Tourney Predictions

Auto Bids Decided Today

ACC
No. 3 seed Duke faces No. 4 seed Florida State at 8:30pm ET in the ACC tourney final. Our ratings give the Blue Devils a 78% chance to win, and they’re favored by 8 points in the betting markets.

America East
No. 1 seed Vermont plays 2018 NCAA Tournament darlings and No. 3 seed UMBC at 11am ET in the America East Final. Vermont is the overwhelming favorite, as we give them an 88% chance to win, and they’re 10-point favorites.

Big 12
No. 3 seed Kansas tries to win the Big 12 tournament for the second straight year, as they take on No. 5 seed Iowa State at 6pm ET. The matchup looks close, as we give the Jayhawks a 53% chance to win, and they’re favored by only 1.5 points.

Big East
Villanova enters the Big East championship as the No. 1 seed vs. No. 3 seed Seton Hall at 6:30pm ET, after a testy game between Seton Hall and Marquette yesterday. We give Villanova a 68% chance to win, and the markets have them as 3.5-point favorites.

Big Sky
No. 1 seed Montana tries to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid vs. No. 3 seed Eastern Washington at 8pm ET tonight. Montana is a 5.5-point favorite, and we give them a 78% chance to pull off the win.

Big West
No. 1 seed UC Irvine faces No. 3 seed CSU Fullerton at exactly 11:59pm ET in the Big West final. UC Irvine is an 8-point favorite, and we give them a 73% chance to win.

Conference USA
The C-USA final is chalk, as No. 1 seed Old Dominion faces No. 2 seed Western Kentucky at 8:30pm ET. This game is a toss-up, as we have the odds right at 50/50, while Vegas is giving Old Dominion a 1-point edge.

MAC
The 7:30pm ET time slot tonight features No. 1 seed Buffalo vs. No. 3 seed Bowling Green in the MAC final. It looks like a lopsided affair; we give Buffalo an 85% chance to win and they’re 10.5-point favorites.

MEAC
No. 1 seed Norfolk State tries to make it back to the Big Dance in the MEAC final vs. No. 3 seed North Carolina Central. Norfolk State is a 5-point favorite, and we give them a 57% chance to win.

MWC
No. 5 seed San Diego State will try to pull off a huge upset for the second straight day, after beating No. 1 seed Nevada yesterday. They face No. 2 seed Utah State at 6pm ET. We give Utah State 67% odds to win, and they’re 6.5-point favorites.

Pac-12
No. 1 seed Washington faces No. 6 seed Oregon at 10:30pm ET. While the Huskies had the best odds to win the Pac-12 tourney coming into it, those odds were still only 22%, and Oregon was right behind them at 19%. Now that both teams have made the final, we give Oregon a 52% chance to win, and Oregon is a 1-point favorite in the betting markets.

Southland
No. 2 seed Abilene Christian plays No. 4 seed New Orleans in the Southland final at 9:30pm ET. Abilene Christian is a 5.5-point favorite, and we give them a 70% chance to win.

SWAC
The cream rose to the top in the SWAC, as No. 1 seed Prairie Viewplays No. 2 seed Texas Southern tonight at 6pm ET. We favored Texas Southern coming into the tournament, and give them a 53% chance to win the final. The game is a pick’em in Vegas.

WAC
No. 1 seed New Mexico State will play No. 3 seed Grand Canyon at 10pm ET. New Mexico State is trying to make their eighth appearance in the Big Dance since 2010, and we give them 61% odds to get the auto-bid. They’re also 4-point favorites.

All Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for all undecided conference tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses:

IN FINALS:
ACC: No. 3 Duke (78.3%) new fave
America East: No. 1 Vermont (88.0%)
Big 12: No. 3 Kansas (53.2%)
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (68.1%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (77.6%)
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (72.7%)
CUSA: No. 1 Old Dominion (50.0%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (85.3%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (57.3%)
Mountain West: No. 2 Utah St. (67.0%) new fave
Pac-12: No. 6 Oregon (51.8%)
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (69.9%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (53.2%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico St. (61.4%)

IN SEMI-FINALS:
American: No. 1 Houston (53.7%)
Atlantic 10: No. 2 Davidson (38.7%) new fave
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan St (42.4%)
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (56.2%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (33.7%) new fave
Sun Belt: No. 3 Georgia Southern (37.4%) new fave

3. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. Memphis 81.2% (+34.4%)
2. Minnesota 93.2% (+31.1%)
3. Abilene Christian 69.9% (+29.4%)
4. Florida 72.2% (+28.3%)
5. Oregon 90.7% (+27.8%)
6. San Diego State 33.0% (+27.7%)
7. Montana 77.76% (+25.3%)
8. Western Kentucky 50.2% (+21.3%)
9. Norfolk State 57.3% (+19.0%)
10. New Orleans 30.1% (+18.7%)

Memphis, Minnesota, Florida, and Oregon greatly increased their chances of NCAA Tournament berths with big wins in their respective conference tournaments yesterday. All of them are now looking pretty strong in terms of tourney bids, but it’s not a lock yet.

Abilene Christian, Oregon, San Diego Sate, Montana, Western Kentucky, Norfolk State, and New Orleans are set to play for auto-bids in their conference championships today.

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Sam Houston State 0.0% (-35.4%)
2. Dayton 0.1% (-26.7%)
3. Colorado 2.0% (-26.5%)
4. Utah Valley State 0.6% (-24.2%)
5. Southern Miss 0.0% (-23.4%)
6. Weber State 0.0% (-22.2%)
7. UCSB 0.0% (-20.4%)
8. Grambling State 0.0% (-19.6%)
9. St. John’s 44.6% (-18.8%)
10. North Carolina A&T 0.0% (-17.3%)

The list of Odds Losers is full of teams that exited conference tourneys yesterday, and as a result are all but eliminated from NCAA Tournament consideration.

St. John’s looks like the only team on the list that still has a fighting chance. However, their bubble continues to deflate after losing to Marquette on Thursday, plus having the number of available at-large bids decrease due to surprise conference tournament winners.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 94% (-1%)
2. North Carolina 62% (-4%)
3. Kentucky 56% (+1%)
4. Duke 43% (+9%)
5. Michigan State 32% (no change)
6. Gonzaga 28% (-2%)
7. Houston 22% (no change)
8. LSU 21% (-4%)
9. Tennessee 20% (+1%)
10. Michigan 11% (+3%)

Despite losses in the ACC tournament, we still give Virginia and North Carolina excellent shots to earn No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Duke’s win over UNC puts them in a better spot, though a win in the ACC final over Florida State today would help their cause even more. LSU is all but removed from the equation after losing to Florida.

Friday, March 15

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 19
End today: None
Start today: None
Start after today: 1 (Ivy)

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

No NCAA bids were awarded yesterday.

Results Of Note

West Virginia Lives Another Day
Big 12 tourney No. 10 seed West Virginia had a disappointing season, entering the conference tourney with a 13-18 record. However, they knocked off a bubble team in No. 7 seed Oklahoma in the first round on Wednesday, then pulled off an even bigger upset yesterday with a 79-74 win over No. 2 seed Texas Tech.

Entering the Big 12 tournament, Texas Tech was the favorite to win it (33% odds), and they were a 12.5 point favorite in Vegas to beat West Virginia. Now, coach Bob Huggins and company are just two wins away from what would be a pretty miraculous NCAA tournament bid. West Virginia faces No. 3 seed Kansas today.

Blue Bloods Hold Serve In ACC
The ACC tournament started with three of its teams having a shot at getting No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance. All three won yesterday, in relatively easy fashion. No. 1 seed Virginia pulled away from NC State in the second half to win 76-56, No. 2 seed North Carolina defeated Louisville 83-70, and No. 3 seed Duke took down Syracuse 84-72 with the help of star freshman Zion Williamson’s return from a knee injury. Virginia will face No. 4 seed Florida State tonight, while North Carolina will try to beat rival Duke for the third time this season.

Nebraska Upsets Maryland In Big Ten
After a disappointing regular season, Nebraska entered the Big Ten tournament as a lowly No. 13 seed. Facing the No. 5 seeded Maryland Terrapins yesterday, though, Nebraska pulled off a 69-61 upset. Maryland was unable to overcome its 20-point first half and ended up shooting just 36 percent from the field for the game. Interestingly, our ratings gave favored Maryland only a 60% chance to win this game, which was about 10% lower than the 6-point spread implied. Nebraska faces No. 4 seed Wisconsin today to try to prolong its Cinderella run.

No. 2 Toledo Falls in MAC
No. 1 seed Buffalo was our overwhelming favorite to win the MAC tournament when it started (58% odds), but No. 2 seed Toledo at least had a fighting chance (20%). No longer, after Toledo fell to No. 7 seed Northern Illinois 80-76 yesterday in the quarterfinals. Toledo was favored by 6.5 points in Vegas. Buffalo now has an even clearer path to winning the MAC, with a 76% chance heading into the semifinals.

No. 7 Southern Utah Shakes Up Big Sky
It was a tough draw for Southern Utah, which entered the Big Sky tourney as 8-point underdogs in a matchup against No. 2 seed Northern Colorado in the quarterfinals. Southern Utah not only pulled off the upset, but left no doubt in an 83-64 win, making 11-of-21 three point attempts. Our power ratings had given Southern Utah just a 26% chance of winning. No. 1 seed Montana is a big beneficiary of this result, as their odds to capture the Big Sky automatic NCAA bid increased from 41% to 52% with Northern Colorado’s loss and their own win over No. 9 seed Sacramento State.

2. Conference Tourney Predictions

Auto Bids Decided Today

None

All Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for all undecided conference tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses:

IN FINALS:
America East: No. 1 Vermont (88.0%)

IN SEMI-FINALS:
ACC: No. 1 Virginia (40.6%) new fave
Big 12: No. 3 Kansas (43.6%) new fave
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (42.1%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (52.3%)
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (56.3%)
CUSA: No. 1 Old Dominion (32.9%)
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (56.2%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (76.1%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (38.3%)
Mountain West: No. 1 Nevada (64.1%)
Pac-12: No. 6 Oregon (29.6%)
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (40.5%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (43.2%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico St. (54.1%)

IN QUARTER-FINALS:
American: No. 1 Houston (39.8%)
Atlantic 10: No. 1 VCU (38.9%)
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan St (37.5%)
SEC: No. 2 Kentucky (28.5%) new fave
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia State (32.9%)

3. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. Alabama 51.3% (+31.6%)
2. Minnesota 62.1% (+26.1%)
3. Seton Hall 91.8% (+20.0%)
4. Oregon 62.9% (+19.9%)
5. Florida 43.8% (+18.6%)
6. Colorado 28.5% (+13.3%)
7. Old Dominion 36.7% (+12.9%)
8. Iowa 41.5% (+12.0%)
9. Montana 52.3% (+11.2%)
10. Western Kentucky 28.9% (+10.7%)

The Odds Gainers list today is filled mostly with teams from major conferences that advanced in their conference tournaments. Among them, Florida, Colorado, and Iowa seemingly have more work to do to get on the more favorable side of the bubble.

Alabama pulled off a crucial win by taking down favored Mississippi in the SEC tournament, while the fates of Old Dominion, Montana, and Western Kentucky still depend almost completely on winning their conference tournaments.

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Creighton 2.7% (-26.5%)
2. Toledo 56.5% (-24.4%)
3. Texas 15.5% (-23.8%)
4. Northern Colorado 0.0% (-23.8%)
5. Mississippi 49.8% (-19.3%)
6. Lamar 0.0% (-14.5%)
7. TCU 6.7% (-13.0%)
8. Louisiana Tech 0.0% (-11.0%)
9. Bethune-Cookman 0.0% (-10.9%)
10. North Texas 0.0% (-9.6%)

All the teams on the list above will be sweating while watching the Selection Show on Sunday evening, if not making other plans entirely. Mississippi suffered the painful loss to Alabama, while Texas and TCU fell in the Big 12. Texas also lost star freshman Jaxson Hayes to a knee injury in their game vs. Kansas.

Our models still give Toledo a reasonable shot to make the NCAA tournament with an at-large bid, but their bad loss to No. 7 seed Northern Illinois in the MAC tournament certainly makes things considerably more difficult for them.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 95% (-2%)
2. North Carolina 66% (-4%)
3. Kentucky 55% (+3%)
4. Duke 34% (-1%)
5. Michigan State 32% (+3%)
6. Gonzaga 30% (no change)
7. LSU 25% (+1%)
8. Houston 22% (-3%)
9. Tennessee 19% (+1%)
10. Michigan 98% (-1%)

There was no significant movement in the No. 1 seeds after wins by Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, though the ranks of Michigan State and Gonzaga did flip. Nine of 10 teams on the list will play today, with the lone exception being Gonzaga, which already lost in the WCC final to Saint Mary’s.

Thursday, March 14

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 19
End today: None
Start today: American, Big West, WAC
Start after today: 1

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

One NCAA bid was awarded yesterday:

💥 Colgate (Patriot)

No. 1 seed Colgate locked up its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1996 with a 94-80 win over No. 2 seed Bucknell. Our favorite to win the Patriot League tourney when it began, Colgate got a huge game from sophomore guard Jordan Burns in the championship. Burns led all players with 35 points, making 6-of-9 from three. Our ratings gave Colgate a 40% chance to win the tournament when it started, and a 61% chance to defeat Bucknell yesterday.

Other Results Of Note

NC State Beats Clemson In Bubble Battle
The second round of the ACC tournament featured a bubble team matchup between No. 8 seed NC State and No. 9 seed Clemson. After leading 42-26 at halftime, Clemson blew the lead and lost 59-58, scoring only 16 points in the second half. Following the result, NC State could make a huge statement in its game against No. 1 seed Virginia today, while Clemson’s NCAA bid odds sank to only 12% based on our models. Our ratings gave NC State a slight edge (53%) to win yesterday, and they were favored by 1.5 points in Vegas.

Oklahoma Upset By West Virginia
We gave No. 7 seed Oklahoma a 56% chance to make the NCAA tournament entering yesterday’s Big 12 tournament matchup against No. 10 seed West Virginia. Now, the Sooners are on the outside looking in (30% chance) after being upset by a 13-19 team. The ending was especially dramatic, as Oklahoma guard Christian Jones seemingly made a game-tying three pointer at the buzzer to send the game to overtime — but the shot was ruled a two-pointer upon review. Oklahoma was a 5.5-point favorite in the betting markets, and we projected them with a 72% chance to win this game.

Oregon New Pac-12 Fave (For Now)
After crushing No. 11 seed Washington State 84-51, No. 6 seed Oregon is now our (very slight) favorite to win the Pac-12 tourney, by a hair over No. 1 seed Washington. Still, Oregon’s odds to win the auto-bid are far from a lock at less than 1-in-4; there’s about a 55% chance that a team besides Washington or Oregon wins this tourney.

2. Conference Tourney Predictions

Auto Bids Decided Today

None

All Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for all undecided conference tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses:

IN FINALS:
America East: No. 1 Vermont (88.0%)

IN SEMI-FINALS:
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (56.1%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (43.1%)

IN QUARTER-FINALS:
ACC: No. 3 Duke (33.7%)
Big 12: No. 2 Texas Tech (37.9%)
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (30.6%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (41.1%)
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (52.2%)
CUSA: No. 1 Old Dominion (21.6%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (55.6%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (37.9%)
Mountain West: No. 1 Nevada (59.5%)
Pac-12: No. 6 Oregon (23.3%) new fave
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (40.6%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico St. (55.5%)

ALL OTHERS:
American: No. 1 Houston (40.8%)
Atlantic 10: No. 1 VCU (41.0%)
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan St (35.8%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (29.4%)
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia St (32.1%)

3. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. Colgate 100.0% (+40.7%)
2. St. John’s 68.7% (+23.6%)
3. Oregon 43.0% (+7.1%)
4. Norfolk State 37.6% (+7.1%)
5. TCU 19.7% (+6.4%)
6. Syracuse 96.7% (+5.9%)
7. Lamar 14.5% (+4.3%)
8. USC 7.8% (+4.0%)
9. Belmont 28.9% (+3.7%)
10. North Carolina A&T 18.8% (+3.7%)

St. John’s and Oregon got nice boosts with wins vs. DePaul and Washington State, respectively, paired with losses by bubble teams Clemson and Oklahoma.

Big 12 No. 8 seed TCU still has a prayer of making the tourney after defeating No. 9 seed Oklahoma State yesterday. A win vs. No. 1 seed Kansas State today would go a long way to improve their prospects.

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Bucknell 0.0% (-40.7%)
2. Oklahoma 30.3% (-25.4%)
3. Clemson 11.9% (-21.9%)
4. Arizona 0.0% (-4.6%)
5. Butler 0.0% (-4.3%)
6. North Carolina Central 24.3% (-3.3%)
7. Texas A&M-CC 0.0% (-2.8%)
8. South Carolina State 0.0% (-2.4%)
9. Southern Miss 15.2% (-2.1%)
10. Stanford 0.0% (-2.0%)

The NCAA tournament hopes of Bucknell, Arizona, Butler, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, South Carolina State, and Stanford all but ended with conference tournament losses yesterday.

As mentioned, the losses for Oklahoma and Clemson were also critical as bubble teams. Both will be sweating during the Selection Show on Sunday.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 97% (+1%)
2. North Carolina 70% (+3%)
3. Kentucky 52% (-1%)
4. Duke 35% (no change)
5. Gonzaga 30% (-1%)
6. Michigan State 29% (-1%)
7. Houston 25% (-1%)
8. LSU 24% (no change)
9. Tennessee 18% (no change)
10. Michigan 9% (no change)

The No. 1 seed candidates were idle yesterday, so there weren’t any major changes. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke are all playing today in the ACC tournament.

Wednesday, March 13

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 17
Ending today: Patriot
Starting today: Atlantic 10, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, CUSA, Mountain West, Pac-12, SEC, Southland
Starting after today: 4

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

Five NCAA bids were awarded yesterday, with one huge surprise that could have major NCAA tournament implications:

💥 Saint Mary’s (WCC)

The biggest upset of the night came when WCC No. 2 seed Saint Mary’s shocked No. 1 seed Gonzaga 60-47 to win the WCC championship. Gonzaga was the biggest favorite of any conference tournament this year, with a nearly 90% chance to win this tourney at the start. Favored by 14.5 points in the final, the Zags suffered only their third loss of the season and first loss in conference play; the loss also halted Gonzaga’s streak of six straight conference tournament wins.

Shooting just 38% from the field and 2-for-17 from three was a crushing blow for Gonzaga, while Jordan Ford starred for the Gaels with 17 points. The result locks up a bid in the NCAA tournament for Saint Mary’s, likely to the extreme frustration of another stronger bubble team, as we had the Gaels with only a 41% chance to make the tournament entering the game. Gonzaga’s odds to land at a No. 1 NCAA seed also plunged (see Bracketology below).

💥 Northeastern (CAA)

No. 2 seed Northeastern is going dancing for the first time since 2015 after defeating No. 1 seed Hofstra 82-74 in the CAA championship game. Hofstra senior guard Justin Wright-Foreman scored 29 points, but it wasn’t enough. Northeastern guard Vasa Pusica was on fire, making 7-of-12 three point attempts and finishing with 21 points in only 28 minutes on the floor. We gave Northeastern a 33% chance to win this tournament before it started, second to Hofstra at 40%.
💥 Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

No. 2 seed Northern Kentucky will make its second NCAA tournament in three years after a 77-66 win over top seeded Wright State in the Horizon League championship. Northern Kentucky was our favorite to win the conference tournament when it started; our projections gave them a 44% chance. Still, this game was a pick’em in Vegas, so it was expected to be closer. Jalen Tate was Northern Kentucky’s high scorer with 17 points, while teammate Dantez Walton had 15 points and 14 rebounds.
💥 Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast)

No. 2 seed Fairleigh Dickinson unleashed an offensive barrage vs. No. 1 St. Francis (PA) in an 85-76 victory to claim the Northeast Conference championship. Fairleigh Dickinson was a 4.5-point underdog in the betting markets and our ratings gave them about a 41% chance to win, so it was a minor upset. They shot 64 percent from the field, making 7-of-13 three pointers, and also made 18-of-20 free throws for good measure. This will be Fairleigh Dickinson’s first NCAA tourney appearance since 2016.
💥 North Dakota State (Summit)

No. 4 seed North Dakota State had just an 8% chance to win the conference tournament at the start, but hugely favored No. 1 seed South Dakota State‘s early exit threw this tourney up for grabs. In the final yesterday, 3-point underdog ND State (our top point spread pick of the day, by the way) knocked off No. 2 seed Nebraska Omaha 73-63 after taking a 14-point lead into halftime. Bison guard Vinnie Shahid was their top scorer with 22 points, making 7-of-12 from the field.

Other Results Of Note

UMBC Making More Magic?
In the 2018 NCAA tournament, UMBC became the first ever No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 by eliminating Virginia in the first round. The No. 3 seed in the America East tourney this year, UMBC would apparently like another shot to make some noise in the NCAAs, after grinding out a marathon 90-85 win over No. 4 seed Hartford in double overtime yesterday. UMBC will now get its shot in the tourney final vs. favored No. 1 seed Vermont on Saturday — an exact rematch of the 2018 America East final, in which UMBC upset No. 1 Vermont.

Notre Dame, Miami, Pitt Move On
The first round of the ACC tournament didn’t feature any major surprises, despite two of the lower seeds (No. 15 Notre Dame and No. 14 Pitt) winning. Notre Dame moves on to play No. 7 seed Louisville, while Pitt plays No. 6 seed Syracuse today. Meanwhile, No. 12 seed Miami defeated No. 13 seed Wake Forest 79-71, and will play No. 5 seed Virginia Tech. The top four seeds in the tournament (Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Florida State) each have byes in the second round, but will tip off in the quarterfinals on Thursday.

Tuesday, March 12

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Results

Tourneys in progress: 12
Ending today: CAA, Horizon, Northeast, Summit, WCC
Starting today: ACC, Sun Belt, SWAC
Starting after today: 14

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

Two NCAA bids were awarded yesterday, both to the No. 1 seeds in their respective conference tournaments.

💥 Iona (MAAC Conference)

No.1 seed Iona won their fourth straight MAAC title with an easy 81-60 win over No. 6 Monmouth. Eastern Kentucky transfer Asante Gist led the way with 22 points for Iona, making 5-of-9 three-point attempts. Iona was a 4-point favorite entering the game, and we gave them a 64% chance to win. Going in, our projections had No. 4 Rider as the favorite to win the MAAC Tournament with 22% odds, but Iona was just behind at 18%. Rider was upset by Siena in the quarterfinals.
💥 Wofford (Southern Conference)

We gave Southern No. 1 seed Wofford a 51% chance to win the Big South tournament when it began, and they were true to form, defeating No. 2 seed UNC Greensboro 70-58 in the final last night. Wofford was able to run the table in conference play this year, finishing a perfect 18-0, but they did get a bit of a scare last night, trailing 31-27 at halftime. Wofford guards Fletcher Magee and Nathan Hoover each scored 20 points, and the team finished 21-of-24 from the free throw line. We currently project Wofford as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament after their 29-4 regular season finish.

Other Results Of Note

Summit Final Is Set
The Summit Final tonight is now set, featuring No. 2 seed Nebraska Omaha and No. 4 seed North Dakota State. The conference tournament was thrown for a loop after overwhelming favorite No. 1 seed South Dakota State lost on Saturday to No. 8 seed Western Illinois. Nebraska Omaha barely inched by No. 3 seed IPFW 61-60 yesterday, while North Dakota State halted Western Illinois’ Cinderella run with a 76-73 win.

Gonzaga Takes Care Of Business
Top-seeded Gonzaga had 88% odds to win the WCC Tournament when it started, according to our projections. Now they’re just one win away from winning the WCC title for the seventh straight year, after beating No. 8 seed Pepperdine 100-74 in the semis. Gonzaga can all but lock up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win tonight vs. No. 2 seed St. Mary’s, which beat San Diego 69-62.

CAA Final Is Chalk
The CAA tournament final will feature No. 1 seed Hofstra and No. 2 seed Northeastern, after both teams won close games yesterday. Hofstra was able to beat No. 5 seed Delaware 78-74, while Northeastern defeated No. 3 seed Charleston 70-67. Northeastern won the conference tournament in 2015, but Hofstra has never won it, and last appeared in the NCAA Tournament 18 years ago.

2. Conference Tourney Predictions

Auto Bids Decided Today

Colonial
No. 1 seed Hofstra faces No. 2 seed Northeastern at 7pm ET in the CAA tourney final. We give Northeastern an ever-so-slight 50.6% chance to win, and Vegas has them favored by 2.5 points.

Horizon
Wright State, the No. 1 seed, takes on No. 2 seed Northern Kentucky at 7pm ET in the Horizon League Championship. Our ratings give Northern Kentucky a 55% chance to win, but it’s a pick’em in the betting markets.

Northeast
No. 1 seed Fairleigh Dickinson faces No. 2 seed St. Francis (PA) in the Northeast Conference final at 7pm ET. St. Francis is trying to make the NCAA Tournament for only the second time; our ratings give them a 59% chance to succeed and they’re favored by 3.5 points in Vegas.

Summit
Aforementioned No. 2 seed Nebraska Omaha plays No. 4 seed North Dakota State in the Summit League championship at 9pm ET. Nebraska Omaha has 57% odds to win according to our ratings; the betting markets favor them to beat North Dakota State by 3.

West Coast
No. 1 seed Gonzaga hopes to run the table in the WCC when they face No. 2 seed St. Mary’s in the WCC tournament final. Our ratings give Gonzaga a whopping 91% chance to win, and Vegas has them as 15-point favorites.

All Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for all undecided conference tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses.

IN FINALS:
CAA: No. 2 Northeastern (50.6%)
Horizon League: No. 2 Northern Kentucky (54.7%)
Northeast: No. 1 St. Francis (PA) (58.9%)
Patriot: No. 1 Colgate (59.6%)
Summit: No. 2 Nebraska Omaha (56.8%)
WCC: No. 1 Gonzaga (90.8%)

IN SEMI-FINALS:
America East: No. 1 Vermont (82.2%)
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (56.1%)

IN QUARTER-FINALS:
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (52.2%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (55.6%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (39.0%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico St. (55.8%)

ALL OTHERS:
ACC: No. 3 Duke (34.4%)
American: No. 1 Houston (40.8%)
Atlantic 10: No. 1 VCU (41.0%)
Big 12: No. 2 Texas Tech (32.9%)
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (30.0%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (41.9%)
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan St (35.7%)
CUSA: No. 1 Old Dominion (23.6%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (32.1%)
Mountain West: No. 1 Nevada (60.4%)
Pac-12: No. 1 Washington (21.6%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (29.3%)
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (40.6%)
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia St (32.2%)

3. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

1. Murray State (OVC)
2. Liberty (ASUN)
3. Gardner-Webb (Big South)
4. Bradley (MVC)
5. Iona (MAAC)
6. Wofford (Southern)

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. Iona 100.0% (+36.1%)
2. Nebraska Omaha 56.8% (+25.6%)
3. Northeastern 56.3% (+18.1)
4. North Dakota State 43.2% (+12.6%)
5. St. Mary’s 41.0% (+11.2%)
6. Wright State 45.3% (+10.5%)
7. Northern Kentucky 54.7% (+10.3%)
8. Hofstra 70.3% (+4.8%)
9. Ball State 6.5% (+3.6%)
10. NC Central 27.2% (+2.3%)

Iona is going dancing, while Nebraska Omaha, Northeastern, North Dakota State, St. Mary’s, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, andHofstra would each make the NCAA Tournament with wins tonight.

Ball State’s hopes of an NCAA Tournament appearance are still extremely slim, but the No. 11 seed in the MAC tourney moved onto the quarterfinals with a 61-43 upset win over No. 6 seed Eastern Michigan yesterday. So for now, the dream is still alive…

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Monmouth 0.0% (-36.1%)
2. IPFW 0.0% (-30.8%)
3. Charleston 0.0% (-17.7%)
4. Oakland 0.0% (-10.7%)
5. Wisconsin-Green Bay 0.0% (-10.2%)
6. Western Illinois 0.0% (-7.5%)
7. Delaware 0.0% (-2.8%)
8. St John’s 47.1% (-2.2%)
9. Toledo 81.3% (-1.8%)
10. Alabama 21.5% (-1.7%)

With several mid-major tourneys in their later stages now, this list is filled with teams that were ousted from their respective conference tournaments yesterday, including Monmouth, IPFW, Charleston, Oakland, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Western Illinois, and Delaware.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 96% (no change)
2. North Carolina 65% (no change)
3. Kentucky 50% (-4%)
4. Gonzaga 48% (+2%)
5. Duke 33% (no change)
6. Michigan State 27% (-1%)
7. Houston 24% (+1%)
8. LSU 21% (-1%)
9. Tennessee 18% (no change)
10. Michigan 8% (no change)

Gonzaga’s odds to land an NCAA No. 1 seed increased slightly with a win over Pepperdine in the WCC seminfinals. They’ll be in even better shape if they beat St. Mary’s tonight in the final.

Monday, March 11

Bracket Updates

Tourneys in progress: 9
Ending today: 2 (MAAC, Southern)
Starting today: 2 (MAC, MEAC)
Starting after today: 17

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

Three NCAA bids were awarded, and none of them went to initial tourney favorites.💥 Liberty (Atlantic Sun Conference)

No. 2 seed Liberty entered the ASUN final as 7-point underdogs, but pulled off a 74-68 upset of No. 1 seed Lipscomb. Forward Scottie James led all Liberty scorers with 17 points and added eight rebounds. This tourney was a two-horse race; heading in, there was about a 95% chance that either Lipscomb or Liberty won it. However, Lipscomb was the clear favorite at the start (71% win odds vs. 24% for Liberty). This will be Liberty’s fourth appearance in the Big Dance.

💥 Gardner-Webb (Big South Conference)

History in the making alert! Gardner-Webb, the No. 4 seed in the Big South, will appear in its first Division I Men’s NCAA Tournament after defeating No. 2 seed Radford 76-65. Senior forward DJ Laster had his best game of the year for Gardner-Webb, scoring 32 points and making 14-of-17 shot attempts. The win was another big upset, as Gardner-Webb was a 7.5-point underdog in the final. Our projections gave Gardner-Webb only a 10% chance to win this tourney before it started; Radford was the favorite and appeared to be in the driver’s seat — until yesterday.

💥 Bradley (Missouri Valley Conference)

After upsetting tourney favorite Loyola-Chicago on Saturday, MVC No. 5 seed Bradley took care of business with a 57-54 win over No. 6 seed Northern Iowa in the surprise-matchup final, in a game we expected to be close. Bradley scored a paltry 15 points in the first half, but came alive and outscored Northern Iowa 42-27 in the second. At the start of the tournament, our projections gave Bradley less than a 10% chance to claim the MVC auto-bid this year.

Other Results Of Note

Houston No. 1 Seed in AAC
Houston capped off an excellent regular season with an 85-69 win at Cincinnati on Sunday. Houston will now be the top seed in the AAC tourney, which begins on Thursday, while Cincinnati will be the No. 2 seed. According to our projections, Houston is also in the running to claim a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, though it’s currently a slim chance (see Bracketology projections below).

Not A Mon-umental Upset
MAAC No. 6 seed Monmouth finds itself in the conference tourney final against No. 1 seed Iona tonight, after a 14-point win over No. 2 seed Canisius yesterday, 73-59. While the win was an upset in terms of seeding, the game was actually a pick’em in the betting markets, so it wasn’t a huge surprise. After starting the season 0-12 (!), Monmouth entered the MAAC tournament with just a 4% chance to win it, but has beaten the No. 3 seed, Quinnipiac, as well. Monmouth is now a 4.5-point underdog in the final in the betting markets.

Greensboro In SoCon Final
Southern Conference No. 2 seed UNC Greensboro was a 2-point underdog against No. 3 seed Furman in the semifinals, but advanced with a 66-62 upset win. We gave the UNC Greensboro just a 12% chance to win this tournament before it started, mainly because the road to the auto-bid would likely include a matchup against very strong No. 1 seed Wofford. That’s now the case in the final, and it will be a tall order for UNC Greensboro to pull off one more surprise win.

Patriot League Chalk
The two top favorites have made it to the Patriot League final. In the semis, No. 1 seed Colgate defeated No. 5 seed Navy 80-70, while No. 2 seed Bucknell took down No. 3 seed Lehigh 97-75. Patriot League teams have produced some massive NCAA tournament upsets over the years, most recently No. 15 seed Lehigh beating No. 2 seed Duke in 2012, and Bucknell (as a No. 14 seed) came within four points of beating Michigan State last year. The Patriot League final will be played on Wednesday.

Auto Bids Decided Today

MAAC
No. 1 seed Iona faces No. 6 seed Monmouth at 9 pm ET in the MAAC tourney final. Iona is favored by 4.5 points in the betting markets; our power ratings give Iona a 64% chance to win.

Southern
No. 1 seed Wofford will take on No. 2 seed UNC Greensboro at 7 pm ET in the Southern tourney final. Wofford is favored by 7 points; our power ratings give them a 74% chance to win.

Conference Tourney Predictions

Here are our favorites for the rest of the tourneys as of this morning. Updated tournament win odds are in parentheses.

IN FINALS:
MAAC: No. 1 Iona (64.0%)
Northeast: No. 1 St. Francis (58.9%)
Patriot: No. 1 Colgate (61.4%)
Southern: No. 1 Wofford (74.0%)

IN SEMI-FINALS:
America East: No. 1 Vermont (82.1%)
CAA: No. 1 Hofstra (47.0%)
Horizon: No. 2 Northern Kentucky (44.3%)
Ivy: No. 2 Yale (50.2%)
Summit: No. 2 Nebraska Omaha (31.2%)

IN QUARTER-FINALS:
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (52.2%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (39.1%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico State (55.6%)
WCC: No. 1 Gonzaga (91.5%)

ALL OTHERS:
A-10: No. 1 VCU (41.1%)
AAC: No. 1 Houston (40.8%)
ACC: No. 3 Duke (34.6%)
Big 12: No. 2 Texas Tech (32.9%)
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (30.0%)
Big Ten: No. 1 Michigan State (35.9%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (42.1%)
C-USA: No. 1 Old Dominion (23.6%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (58.0%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (32.5%)
MWC: No. 1 Nevada (60.5%)
Pac-12: No. 1 Washington (21.6%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (29.2%)
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (40.6%)
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia State (32.2%)

2. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

NCAA Bids Already Won

1. Murray State (OVC)
2. Liberty (ASUN)
3. Gardner-Webb (Big South)
4. Bradley (MVC)

Bid Odds Gainers Yesterday

1. Liberty 100.0% (+75.4%)
2. Gardner-Webb 100.0% (+74.8%)
3. Bradley 100.0% (+49.5%)
4. Iona 63.9% (+35.2%)
5. Monmouth 36.1% (+20.8%)
6. IPFW 30.8% (+14.5%)
7. Bucknell 40.3% (+10.2%)
8. North Dakota State 30.6% (+9.3%)
9. Oklahoma 59.7% (+9.2%)
10. Hofstra 65.4% (+8.8%)

Liberty, Gardner-Webb, and Bradley are in, while the fates of Iona and Monmouth will be decided in the MAAC final tonight.

IPFW had just a 9% chance of winning the Summit league tourney as the No. 3 seed going in. Thanks to No. 1 seed and big favorite South Dakota State getting upset in the quarterfinal, though, the tourney is now a three dog fight. IFPW, Nebraska Omaha and North Dakota State are all at 31% to win it.

Bid Odds Losers Yesterday

1. Lipscomb 0.4% (-75.9%)
2. Radford 0.0% (-74.8%)
3. Northern Iowa 0.0% (-49.5%)
4. Siena 0.0% (-33.8%)
5. Furman 29.4% (-27.1%)
6. Canisius 0.0% (-22.3%)
7. East Tennessee State 1.5% (-16.7%)
8. Lehigh 0.0% (-13.6%)
9. South Dakota 0.0% (-12.5%)
10. Iowa 33.4% (-11.2%)

As expected, today’s losers list is filled with teams that had a decent shot to win conference tourneys in one-bid leagues, but lost. Furmanhad a great season at 25-7, but it’s tough to see them getting an NCAA bid now.

Iowa is now also on the outside of the bubble according to our projections, and has some proving to do in the Big Ten tourney after losing at Nebraska in overtime yesterday. However, a majority of other bracketologists still think Iowa will get a bid.

Most Likely NCAA No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 96% (no change)
2. North Carolina 65% (+1%)
3. Kentucky 54% (-3%)
4. Gonzaga 46% (-2%)
5. Duke 33% (-1%)
6. Michigan State 28% (-2%)
7. Houston 23% (+10%)
8. LSU 22% (-1%)
9. Tennessee 18% (-1%)
10. Michigan 8% (-1%)

Houston probably won’t get a No. 1 NCAA seed, but their win at Cincinnati yesterday at least gives them an outside shot. If Houston wins the AAC tourney and gets a lot of other help, it could happen.

Sunday, March 10

Bracket Updates

1. Conference Tournament Updates

13 tournaments are in progress; the brackets for 17 more are set.

Auto-Bids Awarded Yesterday

💥 Murray State (Ohio Valley Conference)

Potential top-three NBA draft pick Ja Morant and OVC tourney No. 2 seed Murray State are going dancing! The Racers locked up 2019’s first NCAA tournament auto-bid after Morant dropped 36 points in a 77-65 win over No. 1 seed Belmont in the final. Going into the OVC Tournament, our odds had Belmont and Murray State neck and neck to win it, with about a 40% chance each (though we gave Belmont a very slight edge).

Other Results Of Note

Loyola’s Out
Barring a miracle, Sister Jean won’t be back at the NCAA tournament this year. 2018 NCAA Cinderella darlings and Missouri Valley Conference tournament No. 1 seed Loyola-Chicago, as 6-point favorites, fell to No. 5 seed Bradley in the semifinals. That sets up an Arch Madness final today between Bradley and No. 6 seed Northern Iowa, which also pulled off an upset, downing No. 2 seed Drake. Going in, there was only about a 15% chance that either Bradley or Northern Iowa would win the MVC tourney.

Summit Giant Falls
Summit League No. 1 seed (by a mile) South Dakota State fell to lowly No. 8 seed Western Illinois 79-76. It was a huge choke; South Dakota State was a 15-point favorite in the game, and our projections gave them a whopping 60% chance to win this tourney and get an automatic bid. As a result, No. 2 seed Nebraska Omaha‘s odds to get the bid have surged from 12% to over 35%.

Vermont Thanks Binghamton
No. 7 seed Binghamton upset No. 2 seed Stony Brook 78-72 in the quarterfinals of the America East Tournament; Binghamton was an 11-point underdog in the betting markets. That result puts No. 1 seed Vermont even more in the driver’s seat, and we now give Vermont an 82.1% chance to lock up the auto-bid.

UNC Will Be ACC’s No. 2
North Carolina capped off its regular season with a 79-70 takedown of rival Duke, which is still missing star Zion Williamson. That result cemented UNC as the No. 2 seed in the upcoming ACC Tournament. Duke will be the No. 3 seed, and based on the latest reports, the injured Zion is expected to play in the ACC tourney.

Vols No. 3 in SEC; Still Favored
Despite being the #1 ranked SEC team in our power ratings, Tennessee enters its conference tourney as just the No. 3 seed after losing at Auburn yesterday 84-80. We still favor the Vols to win the SEC tournament ever so slightly over No. 2 seed Kentucky, but it’s neck and neck. Our projections only give tournament No. 1 seed LSU a 10% chance to win it.

Auto Bids Decided Today

A-Sun
No. 1 seed Lipscomb faces No. 2 seed Liberty at 3 pm ET. In the betting markets, Lipscomb was favored by 7 points this morning.

Big South
No. 2 seed Radford, a 7.5-point favorite, will take on No. 4 seed Gardner-Webb at 1 pm ET.

MVC
No. 5 seed Bradley takes on No. 6 seed Northern Iowa at 2:05 pm ET. It should be close; Bradley is favored by 1.5 points.

Conference Tourney Predictions

Here’s our favorite for the rest of the tourneys as of this morning, along with their win odds based on our power ratings.

IN SEMI FINALS:
America East: No. 1 Vermont (82.1%)
Horizon: No. 2 N Kentucky (44.3%)
Ivy: Yale (50.1%)
Northeast: No. 1 St. Francis (58.9%)
Patriot: No. 1 Colgate (54.7%)

IN QUARTER FINALS:
CAA: No. 1 Hofstra (40.4%)
MAAC: No. 5 Siena (33.7%) new fave
Southern: No. 1 Wofford (50.4%)
Summit: No. 2 Neb-Omaha (35.4%) new fave
WCC: No. 1 Gonzaga (91.5%)

ALL OTHERS:
A-10: No. 1 VCU (41.1%)
ACC: No. 3 Duke (34.5%)
Big 12: No. 2 Texas Tech (32.9%)
Big East: No. 1 Villanova (29.9%)
Big Sky: No. 1 Montana (41.9%)
Big West: No. 1 UC Irvine (52.1%)
C-USA: No. 1 Old Dominion (23.6%)
MAC: No. 1 Buffalo (58.0%)
MEAC: No. 1 Norfolk State (32.5%)
MWC: No. 1 Nevada (60.4%)
Pac-12: No. 1 Washington (21.6%)
SEC: No. 3 Tennessee (29.1%)
Southland: No. 2 Abilene Christian (40.5%)
Sun Belt: No. 1 Georgia State (32.3%)
SWAC: No. 2 Texas Southern (39.3%)
WAC: No. 1 New Mexico State (55.7%)

2. Bracketology Updates

Our NCAA bracketology projections update every morning based on prior day’s game results.

Bid Odds Gainers

1. Murray State 100.0% (+39.5%)
2. Bradley 50.5% (+36.7%)
3. Northern Iowa 49.5% (+34.9%)
4. Seton Hall 70.9% (+33.1%)
5. Ole Miss 71.3% (+23.1%)
6. Nebraska Omaha 35.4% (+22.8%)
7. St. Francis (PA) 58.9% (+20.5%)
8. Siena 33.8% (+19.5%)
9. Oregon 35.5% (+14.0%)
10. Clemson 36.2% (+13.9%)

Seton Hall boosted their NCAA hopes by defeating Villanova 79-75. The Big East Tournament bracket will be set after today’s games.

Bid Odds Losers

1. South Dakota State 0.0% (-59.9%)
2. Loyola-Chicago 0.0% (-43.0%)
3. Belmont 38.3% (-40.9%)
4. Texas 41.0% (-34.3%)
5. Drake 0.1% (-29.5%)
6. St. John’s 45.8% (-24.8%)
7. Stony Brook 0.0% (-20.7%)
8. Rider 0.0% (-20.3%)
9. Quinnipiac 0.0% (-14.7%)
10. Robert Morris 0.0% (-14.5%)

With the Ohio Valley Conference unlikely to get two teams into the Big Dance, Belmont is now on the outside looking in.

Most Likely No. 1 Seeds

1. Virginia 96%
2. North Carolina 64%
3. Kentucky 54%
4. Gonzaga 48%
5. Duke 34%
6. Michigan State 30%
7. LSU 23%
8. Tennessee 19%
9. Houston 13%
10. Michigan 9%

UNC‘s win over Duke yesterday had a major impact on No. 1 seed odds. The Tar Heels’ chance to land a No. 1 NCAA seed surged by almost 30%; Duke’s No. 1 seed odds dropped almost 20%.