Tournament Odds 2015: A-10, MWC, C-USA, Southland

It’s a busy day today with 33 NCAA Basketball games on the slate. Florida State vs Clemson tips at Noon Eastern, and the last game of the night is Washington vs Stanford at 11:30PM Eastern.

No less than nine conference tournaments start today. Since we already posted our 2015 conference tournament projections for the power conferences, we’ve rounded up the other conference tournaments that start today: Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Conference USA (CUSA), and Southland. All projections were made before the games tipped.

Before we dive in, though, let’s talk about the one conference handing out an automatic bid tonight: the Patriot League.

March 11th Conference Championship Final

Patriot League Conference Tournament Final

At the start of their tournament back on March 3rd, we saw the top two seeds Bucknell and Colgate as evenly matched and a cut above the rest of the conference.

Well, a conference tournament like this is why we call it March Madness. Tonight at 7:30PM Eastern, #4 seed Lafayette hosts #6 seed American in the final.

At the start of the tournament they had a combined chance of under 19% to make the Big Dance. Tonight, we give Lafayette a 63% chance to win and make the tournament.  If they do, our Lafayette bracketology projection sees them as a likely #14 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Atlantic 10 conference tournament bracket prediction has #1 seed Davidson as the slight favorite to win the championship and the automatic berth. However, the Wildcats have a tough path on their side of the bracket as #5 seed VCU has the second best chance to win the tournament.

Despite VCU’s struggles since they lost Briante Weber, VCU would be slightly favored by our models (which incorporate the full season of data) if the teams were to match up in the semifinals; Vegas lines may or may not agree if it comes to that.

#2 seed Dayton has an easier path to the final, and ranks just behind VCU in our projections.

Our VCU bracketology projection indicates that they would most likely be a #9 seed in the 2015 NCAA tourney if they win, as would Davidson. Dayton is currently projected right behind them as a #10 seed.

2015 Atlantic 10 (A10) Conference Tournament Projection

Mountain West Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Mountain West tournament bracket prediction sees a hard fought conference tournament. #1 seed Boise State has a 29% chance to win, followed closely by #2 seed San Diego State and #3 seed Colorado State.

Our bracketology projections currently expect all three of those teams to hear their names on Selection Sunday, and for all of them to be #10 or #11 seeds.

2015 Mountain West Conference Tournament Projection

Conference USA Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Conference USA tournament bracket prediction has #1 seed Louisiana Tech and #3 seed Old Dominion as co-favorites to win the championship — and what should be the conference’s lone berth in the tourney.

Each team has a roughly 27% chance to win, with #2 seed UTEP not far behind at 21%. Tournament host #4 seed UAB has a 13% chance to win.

Our Louisiana Tech bracketology projection indicates that they would most likely be a #13 seed in the 2015 NCAA tournament if they make it. Old Dominion is most likely to be a #12 seed if they qualify.

2015 Conference USA (CUSA) Conference Tournament Projection

Southland Conference  Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Southland Conference tournament bracket prediction sees this tournament as a two horse race. #1 seed Stephen F. Austin is projected to win 58% of the time, while #2 seed Sam Houston State is expected to win 37% of the time. In 75% of our simulations, these two teams match up in the final to play for the conference’s automatic berth.

Our Stephen F. Austin bracketology projection indicates that they would most likely be a #13 seed in the 2015 NCAA tournament if they make it. Sam Houston State is most likely to be a #16 seed if they qualify.

2015 Southland Conference Tournament Projection