Bracketology Gainers: 5 Teams With Skyrocketing 2013 NCAA Bid Odds

posted in NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament

With each passing week of the season, many teams’ chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket rise and fall — dramatically, in some cases. Every day, our algorithmic NCAA tournament bracketology models generate updated projections of the odds of each team making the Big Dance.

So which five teams most improved their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament over the past seven days? Our bracketology trends pages reveal the answer:

1. California (+36% NCAA Bid Odds Since Last Week)

Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (54% chance)
Today: Near-Lock (90% chance)
California Bracketology

Three weeks ago, Cal looked like a longshot to make the NCAA tournament bracket in 2013. Coming off of a win against Oregon, Mike Montgomery’s team sat at 5-4 in the Pac-12, with our bracketology models only giving them a 23 percent chance of earning a coveted NCAA tourney bid. Following a hiccup on the road against Arizona State, though, the Golden Bears have been on a roll, winning their last five games.

It started off on February 10 with an impressive road win at Arizona, followed by a victory in Berkeley against UCLA. In the last week, things have gotten even better for Cal, picking up two more conference road wins against Oregon and Oregon State. The Bears now get to finish up the Pac-12 season with three consecutive home games, all three of which they stand a good chance to win according to our season projections for California.

2. Villanova (+27% NCAA Odds)

Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (52% chance)
Today: Probable (79% chance)
Villanova Bracketology

The Villanova Wildcats won twice this past week, beating Rutgers last Monday before knocking of Marquette over the weekend. Currently sitting with a record of 18-10, Jay Wright’s team has a 75 percent chance of picking up at least one more win before the 2013 Big East bracket is set. That win could come tonight at Seton Hall. After Seton Hall, the Wildcats travel to Pittsburgh. While winning at Pitt is unlikely, according to our Villanova season projections, the Wildcats have a 47 percent chance of finishing off the season with a home victory against Georgetown.

3. Bucknell (+22% NCAA Odds)

Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (50% chance)
Today: Probable (72% chance)
Bucknell Bracketology

With two more victories this past week, including an impressive six point road win at Lehigh, the Bison now appear to be heavy favorites to win the Patriot League regular season.  After that, Bucknell projects to have a 64 percent chance of winning the Patriot League conference tournament bracket, and landing the automatic NCAA tournament bid for 2013. Even if Bucknell loses in the conference tournament, Dave Paulsen’s squad currently has a 7.5 percent chance of earning an at large bid — far from likely, but it would make the Patriot League a multi-bid conference for the first time ever.

4. Saint Louis (+18% NCAA Odds)

Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: Probable (76% chance)
Today: Near-Lock (94% chance)
Saint Louis Bracketology

The Billikens had a strong week. They started it off by picking up a win against conference rival VCU last Tuesday, and then followed it up by traveling to Indianapolis and beating Butler in Hinkle. Jim Crew’s team now looks to be nearly a lock to make the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket, and projects as the most likely winner of the A-10 regular season title according to our Saint Louis season projections. With a strong finish, Saint Louis still has an 11 percent chance of landing a four seed in the big dance, although something between a five seed and a seven seed seems the most likely.

5. Wichita State (+18% NCAA Odds)

Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last Week: Probable (76% chance)
Today: Near-Lock (94% chance)
Wichita State Bracketology

The Shockers are another team on a roll, winning five games in a row. Last Saturday, Wichita State topped Detroit in their BracketBusters matchup. That game, combined with a win against Indiana State earlier in the week, beefed up coach Gregg Marshall’s 2013 NCAA tournament resume enough that his team now has a 63 percent chance of taking an at large bid according to our Wichita State bracketology projections, compared with a 49 percent chance a week ago. While our Wichita State season projections currently have the Shockers as the likely Missouri Valley Conference regular season champion, winning the MVC conference tournament bracket is a challenge, making the at large bid the most probable route to the NCAA tournament in 2013.


In closing, don’t forget to check out all of our bracketology 2013 projections, which update daily. And in case you didn’t know already, is your #1 source for coverage and analysis of the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket, including bracket predictions for all Division I teams, computer optimized 2013 NCAA bracket picks, NCAA bracket odds for surviving each tournament round, and algorithmic NCAA tournament betting picks.