TeamRankings.com
Get Smart About Sports
March 17, 2015 - by Austin Link
Optimizing your bracket picks for your scoring system is a critical, yet often overlooked element of NCAA bracket pool strategy. Our customized 2015 NCAA bracket picks “solve” your bracket pool by running millions of computer simulations to identify the best picks for your pool’s rules.
The results of our pool simulations often illustrate some clear inefficiencies in how the general public picks brackets. For instance, most people tend to get too risky in popular scoring systems like 1-2-4-8-16-32, and hurt their chances to win by picking too many upsets early on.
But there are also indications that people in pools that award upset bonus points have the opposite problem, picking too conservatively. If your pool awards big points for seed-based upsets, you seriously need to consider making some risky bets on teams that didn’t land a great seed, but are still legitimate threats to advance.
Below are five teams seeded 5 or worse that we calculate as having good odds to go on a deep tournament run.
Picking one of these teams to make the Final Four certainly isn’t the optimal decision in many types of pools. But we’ll be watching these teams closely as potential Cinderellas this year, and they all warrant strong consideration in upset pools.
The Panthers may be disappointed to have only drawn as a 5 seed this year, but it comes with the side benefit of being in what could be the weakest of the four regions. UNI may no longer have NCAA tournament legend Ali Farokhmanesh on hand to nail game winning shots, but Seth Tuttle could become a name to remember. We give UNI a 4% (1-in-25) chance of making the Final Four. Those are better odds than all the other 5 seeds, plus several better seeded teams as well.
Just last year the Shockers were in Kentucky’s shoes, taking an unblemished record into the NCAA tournament. The year before that, they reached the Final Four. This year, Wichita enters the tournament ranked #19 in our predictive ratings, and coach Gregg Marshall’s team could go a long way again. If you are rooting for Kentucky to go down early, Wichita State isn’t a bad choice to replace them in the Final Four. Overall, we give them a 3.4% (roughly 1-in-30) chance.
Tom Izzo has an illustrious history of getting his teams to peak come tournament time. MSU also had a season filled with unlucky losses, including five in overtime that could have easily gone the other way. By our odds the Spartans are the most likely Final Four contestant out of all teams seeded 6 or worse, with an 8.6% (about 1-in-12) chance to make it. Warning though: Be careful when you’re evaluating the Spartans as a bracket pick. MSU certainly has the tools to outperform 7 seed expectations, but Izzo’s reputation precedes him, and they’re a popular Cinderella pick.
Jakob Poeltl on the inside and some sweet shooting from long distance give the Utes a well rounded game. Utah struggled towards the end of the season, losing four of their last seven games, but data shows that momentum (good or bad) generally does not carry over into the NCAA tournament. We would not be surprised if Utah bounces back with a deep run, and our odds give them a 10% (1-in-10) chance to make the Final Four. Those are better Final Four odds than #2 Kansas, #3 Notre Dame, #3 Baylor, and every single one of the 4 seeds. And the public is seriously underestimating Utah’s chances.
Underseeded team alert! The Buckeyes are a 10 seed — implying they are around the 38th best team in the country — but are ranked #9 by our predictive ratings, #17 by ESPN’s BPI, and #21 by Ken Pomeroy. Led by D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State has talent on par with much higher seeded schools like Kansas and Gonzaga, and competed closely with some of the nation’s top teams during the regular season. The big inflection point, and the problem with landing a 10 seed, is a likely, and very difficult, second round game against #2 Arizona. But if OSU can pull off a win there, there’s a chance that we could witness the first 10 seed ever in the Final Four. We estimate that chance at almost 5%, or 1-in-20.
Will one of these teams make a run? The odds are against it. (That’s kind of a requirement for being an NCAA Cinderella, after all.) But we wouldn’t count out any of them, and in upset bonus pools especially it often pays to take calculated risks on teams like these.
Whether you’ve got an upset bonus in your pool scoring system or not, remember that we’ve got ready-to-play brackets that give you the best chance to win your pool.
Printed from TeamRankings.com - © 2005-2024 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved.