April 4, 2016 - by David Hess
A lot of our work at TeamRankings focuses on combining accurate predictions with game theory concepts in order to produce logically-sound, data-driven strategies for office pool contests. That work depends on creating accurate predictive power ratings, which often means taking into account other predictive systems and betting market info.
But the 2016 NCAA tournament just ended. It’s time for play, not work.
In that light, here are our 2016 NCAA Tournament “Points From The Title” Ratings.
The idea behind these ratings is to show how much better a team’s performance would have had to been in order to win the title, if we make one very big assumption:
Obviously that’s not realistic, but it allows us to chain together results from multiple rounds in order to get a single number that represents for how far from the title each team in the tournament was.
Here’s an example to illustrate what we mean: (delete the ones related to the losing team)
As you might expect, Oklahoma — and the entire West region — doesn’t look very good by this metric. That’s what happens when a regional champ gets blown out in the Final Four.
Here’s the full list of all 68 2016 NCAA Tournament teams. Remember, as in golf, lower numbers are better.
Rank | Team | Points Away |
---|---|---|
1 | Villanova | 0 |
2 | North Carolina | 4 |
3 | Kansas | 6 |
4 | Notre Dame | 19 |
4 | Connecticut | 19 |
6 | Indiana | 20 |
6 | Iowa | 20 |
8 | Stephen F. Austin | 21 |
8 | Florida Gulf Coast | 21 |
8 | Temple | 21 |
11 | Syracuse | 22 |
12 | Maryland | 23 |
13 | Providence | 24 |
13 | Miami-Florida | 24 |
15 | Wisconsin | 25 |
16 | Gonzaga | 26 |
16 | Southern California | 26 |
18 | Kentucky | 27 |
18 | Michigan | 27 |
18 | Colorado | 27 |
21 | Xavier | 29 |
21 | Virginia | 29 |
21 | South Dakota State | 29 |
24 | Pittsburgh | 30 |
25 | NC-Asheville | 31 |
26 | Buffalo | 32 |
27 | Tulsa | 33 |
27 | Wichita St. | 33 |
27 | Austin Peay | 33 |
30 | West Virginia | 36 |
31 | Hawaii | 37 |
32 | Butler | 38 |
33 | Dayton | 42 |
34 | Iowa St. | 43 |
34 | Seton Hall | 43 |
36 | Arizona | 44 |
37 | Oklahoma | 45 |
38 | Chattanooga | 46 |
39 | Weber St. | 48 |
39 | Middle Tennessee St. | 48 |
41 | Texas Tech | 49 |
41 | California | 49 |
43 | Utah | 50 |
43 | VCU | 50 |
45 | Fairleigh Dickinson | 53 |
46 | Vanderbilt | 54 |
47 | Stony Brook | 56 |
48 | Iona | 57 |
49 | Michigan St | 58 |
49 | Oregon | 58 |
51 | Oregon St. | 59 |
52 | Texas A&M | 60 |
52 | Cal. State - Bakersfield | 60 |
54 | Arkansas-Little Rock | 61 |
54 | Northern Iowa | 61 |
56 | Fresno St. | 62 |
56 | Purdue | 62 |
58 | St. Joseph's | 64 |
59 | Texas | 65 |
60 | Hampton | 66 |
61 | Cincinnati | 67 |
62 | Duke | 73 |
63 | Yale | 81 |
64 | NC-Wilmington | 82 |
65 | Baylor | 86 |
66 | Green Bay | 88 |
67 | Holy Cross | 98 |
68 | Southern | 103 |
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