2013 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Check Out Our New Pages

posted in > Site Updates, NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament

This week we launched a site update to enhance our NCAA Tournament 2013 section. A few weeks ago we introduced improved 2013 bracketology pages, and we’re now rolling out additional analytics to explore how we predict teams to do once the NCAA tournament begins. Remember that all of this new bracket predictions info updates daily, so check back frequently to see what’s changed.

(For more background on our approach to projecting the 2013 NCAA bracket, and why our approach is different and better than that of human bracketologists, you can see our post from November introducing our new NCAA bracket predictions.)

Bracket Predictions

Our bracket predictions 2013 overview page contains some basic round prediction information, plus some highlights from the bracket prediction trends and bracket predictions by conference pages. Projected NCAA bracket seeds, S-Curve ranking, and end of regular season records are all 100% objective and based on our algorithmic bracketology projections.

For more detailed information on our 2013 bracket predictions, we built the pages below.

Bracket Survival Odds

Our popular bracket odds table is back, listing every Division I basketball team’s odds to make each successive round of the NCAA tournament bracket. Each column in the table is sortable by clicking the header, which makes it easier to find delightful prediction tidbits. For example, did you know that today (February 21), out of the four most likely teams to make the 2013 Final Four, two are projected 2-seeds (Louisville and Duke)?

Gainers and Losers

On the gainers and losers page you get our bracket predictions trends, the biggest increases and decreases in odds to advance to each round, including odds to win national title. Moreover, you can view the biggest changes in bracket predictions from one day ago, one week ago, or three weeks ago.

For example, Indiana’s odds to win the 2013 NCAA title have increased from from 17.9% to 21.3% over the last three weeks, which is the biggest increase in championship odds in all of college basketball over that time frame.

Bracket Predictions By Conference

You can see all of our 2013 bracket predictions broken out by conference on our new bracket predictions by conference page. This page includes the same information found in our survival odds tables, but broken out in sortable conference tables and ordered by highest total projected wins by conference.

Now you can easily see that as of today, our predictions say the Big Ten will have the most NCAA bracket wins with 12.1, and also that our models give five Big Ten teams better than 33% odds to make the Sweet 16.

Additionally, the table at the top of the page summarizes the number of wins by conference, so it’s a snap to see that we’re currently predicting the Mountain West Conference to win 3.8 NCAA tournament games in 2013.

Let us know what you think. In the meantime, we’re excited to roll out more and more new features in the countdown to March Madness. Stay tuned and make sure to bookmark our coverage of the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket!

  • snowman

    after looking at all this info i’m laughing my fanny off!!!
    I luv u guys so much, but the fact u disregard the miami Canes is ludicrous.
    If i read some of the graphs correctly, u have them as the 15 most likeley to win the whole thing. Tell you what I will take 15 to1 on Miami to win it all. and the fact u have Duke up there plese!!!!!! hahahahahahaha I guess March 2nd will tell the tale wont it.
    Oh well still luv u guys, and thanks for the laugh and giggles!!!!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Thanks for keeping your criticism lighthearted here.

    Miami is definitely one of the biggest differences between our projections and the general consensus. And honestly, when our projection (2%) is SO far off from the betting markets (right now Miami is +500 to win it all at 5 Dimes, implying something like a 12-13% chance after you remove the juice), it’s probably wise to split the difference. So my guess is Miami’s true chances may be somewhere *between* 2% and 12%.

    So why are our projections so low? There are a few reasons for that:

    1) Miami has not exactly been killing it against weaker opponents. Their last two games were a 1 point win over Clemson and a 4 point win over Virginia.

    2) Our system sometimes has a difficult time dealing with major injuries. Miami is most likely a bit underrated, due to their worse play early in the year while a couple players were out. However, the fact that they are so reliant on one or two players is not exactly a point in their favor, and those games shouldn’t have a huge effect at this point, now that they have played so many at full strength.

    3) The preseason ratings still have some impact: http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/college-basketball-preseason-ratings-schedule-strength-for-all-347-teams … We’ve done testing on this and found that even late in the season, including preseason rating info is helpful, because there has still been quite a bit of luck involved in how teams have played to this point. Nate Silver reached a similar conclusion: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/fivethirtyeight-picks-the-n-c-a-a-bracket/

    As for March 2nd, no, I wouldn’t exactly say that will tell the tale. One game almost never tells the tale, given the high amount of variation inherent in basketball. And that goes doubly true when one of the teams will probably still be missing a key player that probably *will* be available for the NCAA tournament (Duke missing Ryan Kelly). So yes, March 2nd will give us some information, but it’s still only going to be one game out of many.

    Thanks again for keeping your disagreement civil, and we’re glad you still love us! :)

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Snowman, I thought of you when I read this today:
    http://predictionmachine.com/2013-NCAA-March-Madness-Odds-02202013

    He doesn’t list Miami, but his listed odds sum to 97.6%, so Miami can’t be higher than 2.4%, about where we have them. I *think* Prediction Machine uses player info to sim games, so I wouldn’t think the early injuries ought to be impacting his odds very much. So it’s interesting that multiple types of analytical models all seem to have Miami so low, compared to the betting markets.

  • SNOWMAN

    David,
    Thanks for getting back,
    buttttttt, yes miami hasn’t been killing it aginst weaker teams,buttttt
    wont dont you put into perspective that when Miami played good teams,
    Duke, fsu,nc, we kicked there buts!! as i recall miami is the only team to beat Duke and NC in the same year by 25 or more points!!
    also since there are winning close games now doesnt that bode well for the future? they winn close and blowout games.
    also listening on the radio to national shows they all have problems naming a reasl weakness on this miami team. maybe foul shooting, but to to find some.
    Preseaon ratings yea sure, how can they be a factor when a team has won 13 in a row? blowout wins and close ones. if this had been “DooK:)” NC, Kentucky, with 13 in a row esp in confrence, thay are a lock to win it all, but Miami, hahahaha.
    Well see:)

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    “since there are winning close games now doesnt that bode well for the future?”

    Quite simply, no. There have been many studies about narrow margins of victory, and they all point to the same conclusions — winning very close games is largely luck, and winning big is much better than winning small. See Ken Pomeroy for the latest I can think of:

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/a_post_about_winning
    and
    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/evidence_that_scoring_margin_matters

    “how can [preseason ratings] be a factor when a team has won 13 in a row?”

    Because past history shows they are still important. It’s just math, there is no malice here. Looking at past years, future game predictions are more accurate when we give some weight to the preseason ratings. To give an example from this year … Illinois started the season 12-0, and were ranked #12 in the AP. They were 37th in our preseason ratings. Since then they are 8-8. Obviously that’s only one example, but the point is that a winning streak usually comes when a team is playing at their absolute best. The rest of the year, they’ll likely play a bit worse. The preseason ratings give a good idea of how much worse their bad stretches might be.

    “if this had been “DooK:)” NC, Kentucky, with 13 in a row esp in confrence, thay are a lock to win it all”

    I don’t think we have ever said that *any* team is a lock to win it all. Right now Florida has the highest odds with something like 24%. That means we forecast a 76% chance that somebody other than our top choice wins.

  • SNOWMAN

    1 more point david,
    everbody is harping on the Miami losses, 2 bad losses at that, if they had been fully healthy which they are now , and had one those 2 games, which i know they would have, remember in the indian stae game, Brown missed 2 free throws in last 5 sec we would ahve won that game. they still wern’t getting love because everbody thought they would lose it sum time,only after beating duke did they get love. but dont tell that to a duke fan:)
    so if they go on a great streak and make final 4 or win it all:)
    I bet u Dollars to whatever next year when rankings come out theywont eevn put them in the top 15 because most of team is all seniors and they will think The “U” is a 1 yr wonder!

  • Innocent Bystander

    Does getting rolled by an 11-14 Wake Forrest team count as a bad loss (with a healthy roster)?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Pretty hilarious timing for that loss, huh? Snowman must have jinxed them. :)

  • SNOWMAN

    David,
    Whats even funnier is that Innocent bystander,
    made the comment after Miami Lost!! what a brave soul, notice he didnt have the balls to say sumthin before today. only after Miami gets beat, but last time I checked who is 1st in the ACC? check Miami? who beat Duke and NC by 25 points? check Miami.
    How many number 1 teams lost this year, a few I would say, so why the ragging on Miami? it is one game, and if Miami does win next week at duke, will Innocent be around, doubt it, cause he is a chicken …..
    but if we lose, he will be right back here blabbing about how Miami sucks……excepr for one thing…… ready………if miami wins all there home games who is ACC regular seaons champs?????????
    think hard……. Miami!!!!!!!!!
    so think about that.
    thank you,
    Snowman:)

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hey, relax. There’s no need for name calling.

  • http://www.frivmini.com/ friv

    I am glad to catch idea from your article.

  • http://www.yepi8.org/ yepi8

    thank you and post your comments, very good

  • friv emma

    Thank you for the information. I think I need. Thank you

  • http://www.yepi-yepi.com/ Yepi

    Miami has not exactly been killing it against weaker opponents. Their last two games were a 1 point win over Clemson and a 4 point win over Virginia.

  • http://www.yepi-1.org/ yepi1

    We should do something more meaningful commentary is not convincing. thank you