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February 21, 2013 - by Matt Woods
This week we launched a site update to enhance our NCAA Tournament 2013 section. A few weeks ago we introduced improved 2013 bracketology pages, and we’re now rolling out additional analytics to explore how we predict teams to do once the NCAA tournament begins. Remember that all of this new bracket predictions info updates daily, so check back frequently to see what’s changed.
(For more background on our approach to projecting the 2013 NCAA bracket, and why our approach is different and better than that of human bracketologists, you can see our post from November introducing our new NCAA bracket predictions.)
Our bracket predictions 2013 overview page contains some basic round prediction information, plus some highlights from the bracket prediction trends and bracket predictions by conference pages. Projected NCAA bracket seeds, S-Curve ranking, and end of regular season records are all 100% objective and based on our algorithmic bracketology projections.
For more detailed information on our 2013 bracket predictions, we built the pages below.
Our popular bracket odds table is back, listing every Division I basketball team’s odds to make each successive round of the NCAA tournament bracket. Each column in the table is sortable by clicking the header, which makes it easier to find delightful prediction tidbits. For example, did you know that today (February 21), out of the four most likely teams to make the 2013 Final Four, two are projected 2-seeds (Louisville and Duke)?
On the gainers and losers page you get our bracket predictions trends, the biggest increases and decreases in odds to advance to each round, including odds to win national title. Moreover, you can view the biggest changes in bracket predictions from one day ago, one week ago, or three weeks ago.
For example, Indiana’s odds to win the 2013 NCAA title have increased from from 17.9% to 21.3% over the last three weeks, which is the biggest increase in championship odds in all of college basketball over that time frame.
You can see all of our 2013 bracket predictions broken out by conference on our new bracket predictions by conference page. This page includes the same information found in our survival odds tables, but broken out in sortable conference tables and ordered by highest total projected wins by conference.
Now you can easily see that as of today, our predictions say the Big Ten will have the most NCAA bracket wins with 12.1, and also that our models give five Big Ten teams better than 33% odds to make the Sweet 16.
Additionally, the table at the top of the page summarizes the number of wins by conference, so it’s a snap to see that we’re currently predicting the Mountain West Conference to win 3.8 NCAA tournament games in 2013.
Let us know what you think. In the meantime, we’re excited to roll out more and more new features in the countdown to March Madness. Stay tuned and make sure to bookmark our coverage of the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket!
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