Projected Standings For All 32 Conferences: Big East, ACC Wide Open

posted in NCAA Basketball

Following up on the release yesterday of our preseason college basketball rankings, below you’ll find our standings projections for every college basketball conference.

These are taken directly from our college basketball projected standings page, which will update automatically every day throughout the season to reflect the latest game results and team ratings.

How We Create The Projected Standings

The projections are created by starting with the most current predictive power ratings (which right now means our preseason ratings), then simulating the entire season, from the first game through the conference tournament.

First, we semi-randomly select winners of every regular season game based on odds implied by the power ratings. Then, we seed each conference tournament based on those results, and finally play out the tournament and project a winner. We repeat 5,000 times, average the results, and end up with what you see below.

Projected Regular Season Conference Champs

Before we get to the full standings table, here’s a summary of the projected regular season champs of select conferences, along with win odds and win-loss records:

  • ACC — 27% Duke (13-5)
  • Atlantic 10 — 31% St. Louis (12-4)
  • Big East — 21% Marquette (12-6)
  • Big Ten — 31% Indiana (13-5)
  • Big 12 — 33% Kansas (13-5)
  • Conference USA — 64% Memphis (13-3)
  • Ivy — 33% Princeton (10-4)
  • Missouri Valley — 44% Creighton (14-4)
  • Mountain West — 37% UNLV (12-4)
  • Pac-12 — 44% UCLA (14-4)
  • SEC — 47% Kentucky (15-3)
  • WCC — 59% Gonzaga (14-2)

Check out that Big East projection (Marquette with a 21% chance). The conference, as always, appears to be completely up for grabs. Louisville is the favorite at sportsbooks and in the eyes of the general public, and they’re only a fraction of a win behind Marquette in our projections, but there are five teams with at least a 10% chance to win the regular season title.

At the other end of the spectrum is Memphis. The Tigers are expected to breeze through their Conference USA slate.

2012-13 College Basketball Projected Standings

The columns in the table below are fairly self-explanatory, but just to clarify:

  • W and L  — Wins and losses in regular season conference games only.
  • Win Reg Season — Projected chance of finishing in first place in the conference standings. Note that in some cases, this is not the same thing as being the #1 seed in the conference tournament, because teams that are ineligible for the postseason could end up in first place, and the #1 seed would then go to the second place team.
  • Win Conf Tourn — Projected odds of winning the conference tournament, and grabbing an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
And, here you go, projected standings for every conference. They’re in alphabetical order. And remember, you can find the same info on our season projections page, which will update automatically throughout the season.
2012-13 TeamRankings College Basketball Preseason Standings Projections
America East
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Vermont12.13.942.7%40.2%
Stony Brook10.85.222.5%24.5%
Albany9.96.114.1%16.9%
Boston U9.86.212.0%0.0%
Maine7.88.23.6%6.5%
N Hampshire7.58.53.7%5.8%
Hartford6.19.90.8%4.5%
Maryland BC4.211.80.4%0.9%
Binghamton3.812.20.2%0.7%
Atlantic 10
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Saint Louis12.33.730.8%26.3%
St Josephs11.34.715.2%14.3%
Temple10.75.311.1%11.4%
U Mass10.65.411.0%10.6%
VCU10.06.07.6%9.2%
Butler9.67.46.7%6.7%
La Salle9.66.45.4%6.4%
Richmond8.87.23.0%4.9%
Xavier8.88.25.0%3.7%
St Bonavent8.08.02.2%2.9%
Dayton7.48.61.2%2.0%
Duquesne6.010.00.4%0.7%
Geo Wshgtn5.011.00.1%0.3%
Charlotte5.011.00.1%0.4%
Rhode Island3.712.30.0%0.1%
Fordham2.313.70.0%0.0%
ACC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Duke13.34.726.8%25.6%
N Carolina12.95.124.8%24.0%
NC State12.55.520.7%17.3%
Miami (FL)11.86.212.5%13.3%
Virginia10.08.05.4%5.5%
Florida St9.88.25.1%6.3%
VA Tech9.58.53.2%4.5%
Maryland6.911.10.6%1.2%
Clemson6.511.50.5%1.1%
GA Tech6.111.90.3%0.8%
Wake Forest4.413.60.0%0.2%
Boston Col4.213.80.0%0.2%
Atlantic Sun
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Mercer14.04.045.0%52.2%
SC Upstate12.55.521.9%16.2%
Fla Gulf Cst11.56.514.7%11.1%
E Tenn St9.98.16.1%6.0%
N Florida9.88.25.5%5.8%
Stetson9.28.84.1%4.4%
Lipscomb7.610.41.6%2.1%
Jacksonville7.310.71.0%1.8%
Kennesaw St4.613.40.1%0.3%
Northern Kentucky3.414.60.0%0.1%
Big 12
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Kansas13.14.933.0%27.2%
Baylor12.25.821.5%20.2%
Kansas St11.86.217.2%16.9%
Iowa State10.27.89.1%9.8%
W Virginia10.27.88.2%9.3%
Texas9.88.26.4%8.4%
Oklahoma8.69.43.2%4.8%
Oklahoma St7.510.51.3%2.9%
TX Christian3.714.30.0%0.2%
Texas Tech2.915.10.0%0.1%
Big East
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Marquette12.35.720.6%18.1%
Louisville11.96.116.9%15.5%
Notre Dame11.76.313.9%13.5%
Syracuse11.76.314.4%15.5%
Pittsburgh11.46.612.7%11.8%
Georgetown10.08.06.3%7.0%
Cincinnati9.28.83.5%4.7%
Connecticut9.09.02.9%0.0%
Seton Hall8.49.63.0%3.5%
Villanova8.19.91.9%3.0%
Providence7.710.31.2%2.3%
S Florida7.510.51.7%2.5%
Rutgers6.611.40.7%1.1%
St Johns5.013.00.2%1.3%
DePaul4.513.50.1%0.2%
Big Sky
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Montana15.74.345.2%52.0%
Weber State14.45.628.2%20.3%
N Colorado11.28.86.6%6.4%
Portland St10.49.64.3%4.5%
E Washingtn10.29.83.8%4.1%
S Utah9.810.23.7%3.8%
North Dakota9.810.23.2%3.7%
Sac State9.510.53.5%3.3%
Montana St7.512.51.0%1.2%
Idaho State6.413.60.4%0.6%
N Arizona5.015.00.2%0.2%
Big South
NorthWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Campbell9.66.410.7%8.3%
High Point8.47.64.9%4.5%
Liberty7.98.14.0%3.7%
VA Military7.38.73.1%2.6%
Radford6.49.61.3%1.5%
Longwood3.312.70.1%0.1%
SouthWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
NC-Asheville11.84.235.0%39.5%
Charl South10.85.221.5%18.5%
Coastal Car9.07.09.2%9.0%
Gard-Webb8.57.56.8%7.3%
Presbyterian6.79.31.8%2.7%
Winthrop6.49.61.7%2.3%
Big Ten
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Indiana13.24.830.5%24.9%
Ohio State12.85.222.3%21.7%
Michigan St12.25.819.0%18.5%
Wisconsin12.06.015.6%15.0%
Minnesota9.78.34.1%5.9%
Illinois9.68.43.9%5.3%
Michigan8.99.12.4%4.5%
Purdue7.011.00.8%1.4%
Northwestern7.011.00.7%1.4%
Penn State6.411.60.4%0.8%
Iowa6.211.80.3%0.7%
Nebraska3.114.90.0%0.1%
Big West
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Lg Beach St13.14.933.6%29.7%
CS Fullerton11.76.321.2%18.8%
UCSB10.97.113.2%13.8%
UC Irvine10.27.810.5%11.3%
Cal Poly9.98.18.0%9.6%
Pacific9.28.86.1%7.4%
Hawaii9.09.06.0%6.9%
Cal St Nrdge6.311.71.0%1.9%
UC Riverside5.212.80.2%0.0%
UC Davis4.613.40.2%0.7%
CAA
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Drexel14.13.946.4%43.5%
Geo Mason11.16.912.3%16.1%
Northeastrn11.16.913.0%16.8%
Delaware10.27.87.2%12.2%
Old Dominion10.27.88.2%0.0%
Georgia St10.17.96.8%0.0%
James Mad8.99.13.5%6.3%
Hofstra7.410.61.3%3.6%
NC-Wilmgton7.011.00.8%0.0%
Wm & Mary5.712.30.3%1.5%
Towson3.414.60.0%0.0%
CUSA
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Memphis13.42.663.8%67.0%
TX El Paso9.66.48.0%5.5%
E Carolina8.77.35.9%5.9%
Marshall8.77.35.5%6.1%
S Mississippi8.57.55.4%5.3%
Tulane8.37.73.4%3.0%
UAB7.68.42.7%3.5%
Central FL7.48.62.4%0.0%
Tulsa7.38.71.5%1.7%
Houston6.89.20.9%1.2%
S Methodist5.310.70.3%0.6%
Rice4.311.70.2%0.2%
Great West
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Utah Val St5.82.252.5%42.9%
TX-Pan Am4.23.817.9%17.7%
NJIT3.94.114.5%14.8%
Houston Bap3.84.212.5%14.0%
Chicago St2.45.62.7%10.6%
Horizon League
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Valparaiso10.45.624.1%28.1%
WI-Grn Bay10.06.019.2%19.1%
Cleveland St9.96.120.5%17.9%
Detroit9.66.416.6%15.5%
WI-Milwkee8.37.78.7%7.9%
Youngs St7.98.17.0%6.6%
IL-Chicago6.59.52.7%3.1%
Loyola-Chi4.811.20.6%1.0%
Wright State4.711.30.6%0.9%
Independents
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
CS Bakersfld0.00.0----
New Orleans0.00.0----
Ivy
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Princeton9.64.432.6%--
Harvard9.24.825.1%--
Columbia8.45.617.5%--
Cornell7.56.511.0%--
Yale7.16.98.3%--
U Penn5.98.13.4%--
Dartmouth4.49.61.1%--
Brown4.010.01.1%--
MAAC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Iona12.75.331.1%25.8%
Manhattan12.45.627.0%24.1%
Loyola-MD11.46.619.0%16.4%
Fairfield10.47.69.0%10.6%
Niagara9.38.76.2%8.1%
Siena8.29.83.1%5.1%
Marist7.310.71.8%3.9%
Rider6.611.41.4%2.5%
St Peters6.111.90.6%2.1%
Canisius5.712.30.8%1.5%
MAC
EastWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Ohio13.72.363.0%55.7%
Akron11.24.818.2%21.0%
Kent State8.87.24.3%6.8%
Buffalo8.37.72.9%5.5%
Bowling Grn7.78.32.0%3.8%
Miami (OH)7.68.41.5%3.8%
WestWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Toledo9.86.25.3%0.0%
W Michigan7.48.61.3%1.5%
Ball State6.99.11.0%1.1%
E Michigan6.29.80.3%0.6%
Central Mich5.011.00.1%0.3%
N Illinois3.312.70.0%0.1%
MEAC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Savannah St13.03.043.8%35.4%
Delaware St11.64.421.9%19.0%
Morgan St9.66.48.5%10.0%
NC Central9.56.57.2%8.3%
Norfolk St9.46.65.8%8.2%
Beth-Cook8.77.34.9%5.7%
NC A&T7.88.22.5%3.7%
Howard7.48.61.7%2.8%
Hampton7.18.91.7%2.9%
Coppin State6.99.11.5%2.5%
Maryland ES4.911.10.4%0.8%
Florida A&M4.611.40.1%0.4%
S Car State3.512.50.1%0.2%
MVC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Creighton14.13.944.2%36.0%
Wichita St12.65.423.0%21.2%
N Iowa12.25.816.4%18.2%
Illinois St11.16.911.0%12.5%
Missouri St8.39.71.9%4.0%
Evansville7.610.41.4%2.6%
Drake7.510.51.1%2.7%
Indiana St6.311.70.5%1.4%
S Illinois5.612.40.4%0.9%
Bradley4.713.30.2%0.5%
Mountain West
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
UNLV12.13.936.9%47.2%
New Mexico12.04.035.3%25.2%
San Diego St10.65.416.7%13.9%
Colorado St8.67.46.9%6.3%
Nevada6.89.21.7%2.4%
Boise State6.19.90.7%1.6%
Wyoming5.910.11.1%1.6%
Fresno St5.310.70.4%1.1%
Air Force4.711.30.3%0.7%
Northeast
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Wagner14.53.534.7%32.3%
Rob Morris14.43.633.4%31.3%
LIU-Brooklyn12.25.814.1%15.1%
Quinnipiac12.06.010.2%10.6%
Sacred Hrt9.98.12.9%4.2%
St Fran (NY)9.58.52.7%3.7%
Mt St Marys8.19.90.6%1.0%
Central Conn7.710.31.1%1.3%
Monmouth6.311.70.2%0.4%
St Fran (PA)5.612.40.0%0.1%
Bryant4.313.70.0%0.1%
F Dickinson3.614.40.0%0.0%
Ohio Valley
EastWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Belmont14.11.950.1%52.9%
Morehead St9.36.73.1%5.1%
TN State8.87.21.6%3.8%
Jksnville St8.17.91.5%2.6%
TN Tech7.48.60.9%1.4%
E Kentucky6.49.60.3%0.9%
WestWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Murray St13.62.441.6%31.3%
SE Missouri7.88.20.5%1.1%
Austin Peay6.79.30.4%0.5%
SIU Edward5.210.80.0%0.1%
TN Martin4.711.30.0%0.1%
E Illinois4.012.00.0%0.0%
Pac-12
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
UCLA14.43.643.5%36.8%
Arizona13.44.628.0%23.1%
California11.16.98.7%10.1%
Stanford11.07.07.2%9.6%
Washington10.08.04.9%6.9%
Oregon9.28.82.6%4.2%
Oregon St8.89.22.1%3.3%
Colorado7.810.21.3%2.2%
USC7.210.81.0%2.1%
Wash State6.411.60.4%1.0%
Arizona St5.812.20.4%0.6%
Utah2.815.20.0%0.0%
Patriot
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Lehigh11.42.645.9%43.8%
Bucknell11.22.839.6%39.9%
American8.85.210.7%11.1%
Holy Cross6.57.51.9%2.6%
Army5.48.60.9%1.1%
Lafayette4.89.20.6%0.9%
Colgate4.69.40.3%0.5%
Navy3.210.80.1%0.2%
SEC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Kentucky15.32.746.6%40.2%
Florida14.43.629.3%28.1%
Missouri13.34.713.9%15.9%
Alabama11.46.64.2%5.3%
Tennessee10.77.33.7%5.2%
Mississippi8.89.20.8%1.5%
Arkansas8.19.90.7%1.3%
Vanderbilt7.710.30.3%0.8%
Texas A&M6.711.30.2%0.5%
Georgia6.411.60.1%0.4%
S Carolina6.311.70.1%0.3%
LSU6.211.80.1%0.3%
Auburn5.612.40.1%0.2%
Miss State5.013.00.0%0.1%
Southern
NorthWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Elon9.38.71.8%2.6%
NC-Grnsboro9.09.00.7%2.1%
W Carolina8.19.90.5%1.7%
Chattanooga7.610.40.5%1.1%
App State7.310.70.3%1.1%
Samford6.711.30.1%0.6%
SouthWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Davidson16.61.483.1%68.1%
Col Charlestn12.95.110.5%15.0%
GA Southern9.58.51.3%3.7%
Furman8.39.70.8%2.2%
Wofford7.810.20.4%1.6%
Citadel5.013.00.1%0.2%
Southland
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Oral Roberts16.41.682.9%69.3%
Ste F Austin11.96.19.2%12.4%
Lamar10.37.73.3%6.2%
McNeese St9.48.61.6%4.0%
NW State9.18.91.5%3.4%
SE Louisiana7.710.30.6%1.7%
Sam Hous St7.510.50.6%1.5%
Nicholls St7.210.80.4%1.3%
TX A&M-CC5.712.30.1%0.0%
Central Ark4.713.30.0%0.2%
SWAC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Miss Val St14.43.649.0%39.4%
TX Southern12.65.424.2%22.4%
Jackson St10.47.67.8%10.3%
Ark Pine Bl10.17.97.1%9.7%
Prairie View9.68.46.5%7.6%
Alabama St7.810.22.0%3.8%
Alab A&M7.510.51.8%2.4%
Southern7.510.51.2%2.8%
Alcorn State5.912.10.4%1.2%
Grambling St4.213.80.1%0.4%
Summit
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
S Dakota St13.22.851.3%43.4%
Oakland11.74.320.9%23.4%
N Dakota St11.34.720.4%19.9%
W Illinois8.57.53.7%5.7%
IUPUI7.68.41.8%3.4%
IPFW7.28.81.5%2.8%
UMKC5.710.30.4%1.1%
South Dakota4.311.70.1%0.4%
Nebraska Omaha2.613.40.0%0.0%
Sun Belt
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Middle Tenn16.43.649.5%40.6%
North Texas14.55.524.2%22.3%
Arkansas St13.16.913.1%13.9%
S Alabama11.98.16.3%9.0%
W Kentucky10.49.63.1%5.2%
Fla Atlantic9.310.71.4%3.2%
AR Lit Rock8.911.11.3%2.7%
LA Lafayette7.212.80.5%1.1%
Troy6.813.20.3%0.9%
Florida Intl6.413.60.3%0.7%
LA Monroe5.015.00.1%0.3%
WCC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
Gonzaga13.82.258.5%51.4%
St Marys12.43.626.6%27.3%
BYU11.14.912.8%15.4%
Loyola Mymt6.99.10.6%1.5%
San Fransco6.99.10.7%1.7%
Santa Clara6.49.60.5%1.2%
San Diego6.49.60.3%1.1%
Portland4.811.20.1%0.4%
Pepperdine3.312.70.0%0.1%
WAC
TeamWLWin Reg SeasonWin Conf Tourn
N Mex State12.95.132.8%28.1%
Denver11.76.320.7%19.1%
Utah State11.26.817.8%16.0%
TX-Arlington10.47.612.0%12.3%
Idaho9.09.05.6%7.2%
TX-San Ant8.39.73.6%5.5%
LA Tech7.910.13.5%4.8%
Seattle7.510.52.3%4.0%
Texas State6.411.61.3%2.2%
San Jose St4.813.20.4%0.9%
  • david edders

    I noticed when you go to http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball-upset-predictions/ that the teams change in the charts throughout the day – why is this? Thanks again this site helps me with conf pools

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    There are two things at play here:

    1) Predictions can change any time the input data changes, That includes team ratings and team stats (which can change if we receive new box scores or game results), or more importantly the point spreads from Pinnacle sportsbook (which can shift throughout the day leading up to a game).

    2) The games on this page are grouped by the current point spreads. If the spread changes, that can shift a game from one group to another, which may make them appear or disappear from the table.