College Basketball Preseason Ratings For All 347 Teams

posted in NCAA Basketball

Update Monday Oct 28, 2013
Looking for our 2013-14 preseason ratings and projections?

We’re working on them now, hoping to finish by the end of the week, although no firm promises at this point. We will do a blog post about them, but the actual data will be listed on our college basketball season projections page, and get updated every day once the 2013-14 season starts. So go ahead and bookmark it…

We apologize for the suspense given that Dan Hanner and Ken Pomeroy have already released their preseason ratings. In reality, we are just entering all their ratings into our system and gaming our own results to maximize the odds that we come out on top this year. Only kidding. Stay tuned.

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We released our official college basketball preseason top 25 Monday afternoon. Now, here’s our full ranking from 1 to 347, along with the key factors behind each team’s rating, and projected schedule strengths for the upcoming season.

Let’s go over what each column shows.

First, the columns that show our projections, along with basic team data:

  • Rank — Do we really need to explain this one? 1 is good. 347 is bad.
  • Team — Again, pretty self explanatory. However, note the links. These lead to individual team projection pages, which include many cool auto-updating data nuggets. Projected win distribution, easiest and toughest remaining games, odds to be each seed in the conference tournament along with the odds to win said tournament if they get said seed (this one we’re still tweaking, should be available by Friday), projected conference standings, and more.
  • Conf — Conference.
  • Rating — Projected team rating. This is expressed in “points above average” which basically means this is the expected score margin for a game against a hypothetical average opponent … or against Loyola Marymount, if that’s easier to grok.
  • W-L — Projected win-loss record. Note that this only includes currently scheduled games. Any possible games the team could end up playing in preseason tournaments (like the Maui Invitational), conference tournaments, or the NCAA tournament are not included.
The last four columns are the most important data points that go into our projections. This isn’t everything, but these four will get you most of the way there.
  • 11-12 Rank — The most important factor. This is a team’s rank from last season. Good teams one year tend to be good teams the next year.
  • Ret. Off% — This is a single number that tries to capture how much of a team’s offensive value is returning for this season. Every player is given a value based on last year’s offensive rating, usage rate, and minutes played. Then we use this year’s rosters to figure out how much of that value is returning. Pretty simple in practice, pretty complicated to implement.
  • Ret. Def% — Same as above, except using defensive stats rather than offensive.
  • Rec + Trans — A single number that summarizes the projected value of a team’s new recruits and Division I transfers. Juco transfers are ignored, but we’d wager that’s not a huge issue.

For more info on the returning offense and returning defense values, check out our post from last year that lays out how we calculate returning value.

The four values above (along with some much-less-important variables related to how important returning freshmen were to each team, team ratings from previous seasons, and AP poll voting) are combined using an equation we found by examining historical data. The result is a team’s preseason rating.

The main purpose of these preseason ratings is to drive our college basketball projection pages. Right now, those are 100% based on these preseason ratings. As the year progresses, the preseason ratings will become less and less important, until they are nearly irrelevant at the end of the season.

But the secondary purpose of these rating is to give us something to talk about in the preseason! There are a ton of projections below; we’re sure there’s at least one you have a strong opinion on. So tell us about it! Are we crazy for ranking Michigan so low? Or is there a transfer for your favorite team that you think isn’t getting enough credit in our projections? Leave a comment in the discussion thread below, and we’ll respond as soon as we can.

Finally, here it is: the biggest freakin’ data table you’ve ever seen on a blog.

2012-13 Preseason College Basketball Ratings (All Teams)

RankTeamConfRatingW-L11-12 RankRet. Off%Ret. Def%Rec + Trans
1KentuckySEC19.727-415%6%11.1
2IndianaBig Ten17.925-5985%82%1.2
3FloridaSEC17.725-61064%66%3.6
4Ohio StateBig Ten17.223-7255%62%0.0
5UCLAPac-1216.825-55463%59%8.8
6KansasBig 1216.523-7450%56%1.2
7Michigan StBig Ten16.323-8352%57%1.1
8DukeACC15.322-71463%64%1.4
9MarquetteBig East15.321-81342%60%3.8
10WisconsinBig Ten15.322-8849%63%1.7
11BaylorBig 1215.021-81548%47%4.3
12N CarolinaACC14.922-7528%33%3.3
13MissouriSEC14.723-6732%29%4.6
14LouisvilleBig East14.621-81945%65%3.1
15GonzagaWCC14.624-52577%74%1.6
16SyracuseBig East14.423-8645%49%1.2
17UNLVMWC14.424-62455%62%4.4
18Saint LouisA-1014.424-51872%78%1.7
19New MexicoMWC14.322-71772%64%1.3
20Kansas StBig 1214.320-82284%81%0.0
21ArizonaPac-1214.222-64541%51%8.2
22Notre DameBig East13.823-74391%92%1.2
23MemphisCUSA13.824-51260%67%0.3
24PittsburghBig East13.421-76267%71%4.8
25NC StateACC13.221-83972%68%3.8
26CreightonMVC12.923-62985%88%0.0
27DavidsonSouthern12.523-46198%94%1.4
28Miami (FL)ACC12.320-84887%83%1.2
29OhioMAC12.025-56898%97%1.5
30Iowa StateBig 1211.821-93254%55%4.4
31MinnesotaBig Ten11.718-114686%85%0.4
32W VirginiaBig 1211.719-104133%61%4.1
33San Diego StMWC11.520-86681%76%2.3
34GeorgetownBig East11.419-101645%53%0.5
35St JosephsA-1011.420-863100%100%0.0
36BelmontOVC11.321-52161%64%1.9
37IllinoisBig Ten11.219-116459%70%4.2
38TexasBig 1211.118-112749%59%1.0
39MichiganBig Ten10.917-113156%55%1.8
40St MarysWCC10.822-63566%62%1.2
41TempleA-1010.622-94052%57%3.6
42CaliforniaPac-1210.519-92867%66%0.5
43TennesseeSEC10.418-106589%79%0.0
44StanfordPac-1210.319-103670%67%0.3
45AlabamaSEC10.220-103064%67%0.6
46U MassA-1010.219-87590%88%1.8
47CincinnatiBig East10.219-113367%70%0.0
48Wichita StMVC10.121-81124%36%3.0
49VCUA-109.820-95175%85%0.0
50N IowaMVC9.319-98091%85%0.2
51OklahomaBig 129.316-129291%78%1.7
52Florida StACC9.319-112359%35%0.3
53ConnecticutBig East9.217-113746%45%2.3
54WashingtonPac-129.219-115250%54%3.2
55Seton HallBig East9.019-115550%63%3.2
56Oral RobertsSouthland8.923-59165%84%2.7
57VirginiaACC8.717-113445%58%2.0
58VillanovaBig East8.717-138148%74%3.0
59ButlerA-108.618-1112076%70%3.2
60La SalleA-108.519-105778%71%1.1
61DrexelCAA8.120-86781%83%0.0
62Colorado StMWC8.019-118883%80%1.1
63Middle TennSun Belt8.023-85078%78%0.1
64VA TechACC8.019-117268%62%1.6
65S Dakota StSummit8.022-85686%82%0.0
66Murray StOVC8.021-54756%59%1.7
67BYUWCC8.021-94252%64%0.0
68S FloridaBig East7.917-136057%55%2.6
69ProvidenceBig East7.816-1212778%70%4.0
70RichmondA-107.719-1210497%94%0.0
71Illinois StMVC7.519-109088%87%0.2
72Oklahoma StBig 127.515-139356%75%1.5
73PurdueBig Ten7.115-152632%45%0.3
74OregonPac-127.119-115841%45%3.4
75NorthwesternBig Ten6.916-146955%57%1.8
76AkronMAC6.419-87677%66%0.2
77Oregon StPac-126.418-127476%77%0.0
78MississippiSEC6.417-1210086%71%0.1
79XavierA-106.316-125314%29%4.2
80LehighPatriot6.319-68683%78%0.0
81ArkansasSEC5.917-1311470%57%2.6
82BucknellPatriot5.921-910296%86%0.0
83St BonaventA-105.716-135962%66%0.0
84MercerA-Sun5.721-89983%85%0.5
85RutgersBig East5.715-1411685%85%0.5
86Penn StateBig Ten5.614-1413277%68%2.3
87N Mex StateWAC5.621-107037%51%2.6
88IowaBig Ten5.115-159667%71%0.4
89ColoradoPac-125.114-147854%62%0.5
90USCPac-125.013-16197100%54%4.3
91NevadaMWC4.916-1411372%64%1.5
92IonaMAAC4.817-104432%33%2.2
93MarshallCUSA4.818-137951%64%0.5
94WagnerNEC4.821-710169%76%1.3
95VanderbiltSEC4.813-15204%21%1.1
96DaytonA-104.715-137136%41%1.9
97Rob MorrisNEC4.720-812999%88%-0.1
98OaklandSummit4.618-1215992%80%1.6
99E CarolinaCUSA4.618-1112479%76%1.6
100North TexasSun Belt4.620-8160100%79%1.6
101ManhattanMAAC4.518-1012384%80%1.1
102TX El PasoCUSA4.315-1213463%68%1.8
103S MississippiCUSA4.318-137340%36%2.0
104MarylandACC4.217-1413522%43%4.9
105ValparaisoHorizon4.018-1114479%80%0.8
106Lg Beach StBig West3.818-113829%30%1.4
107WI-Grn BayHorizon3.818-1117996%74%2.5
108N Dakota StSummit3.719-1014595%85%0.0
109Boise StateMWC3.615-1512680%72%0.0
110DenverWAC3.617-118456%67%0.0
111ClemsonACC3.513-158530%54%0.3
112Col CharlestnSouthern3.419-915875%75%2.0
113MontanaBig Sky3.320-810673%58%0.0
114WyomingMWC3.316-148350%51%0.9
115Texas A&MSEC3.316-1411760%53%0.4
116Wash StatePac-123.315-159850%45%0.4
117Missouri StMVC3.216-148954%54%0.0
118Cleveland StHorizon3.217-108243%48%0.5
119GeorgiaSEC3.014-1610849%70%0.0
120PrincetonIvy2.917-1110769%69%0.0
121GA TechACC2.914-1415767%78%0.6
122Utah StateWAC2.919-1012570%56%0.3
123SC UpstateA-Sun2.920-1114893%92%0.0
124UABCUSA2.814-1513155%54%1.3
125NortheastrnCAA2.817-11199100%64%2.7
126St JohnsBig East2.712-1615274%65%0.6
127DetroitHorizon2.617-1312264%54%1.6
128Geo MasonCAA2.616-1210943%60%0.8
129Central FLCUSA2.516-1411158%56%0.5
130Loyola-MDMAAC2.519-1013881%70%0.6
131Arkansas StSun Belt2.419-1019478%76%3.2
132DuquesneA-102.214-1611237%41%1.7
133HarvardIvy2.216-124935%36%0.0
134Fresno StMWC2.212-1717772%68%2.7
135LIU-BrooklynNEC2.119-1116186%84%0.2
136EvansvilleMVC2.015-1513067%70%0.0
137TulaneCUSA2.020-1117096%86%0.0
138DePaulBig East1.913-1716274%80%0.0
139DrakeMVC1.912-1514058%46%1.8
140LSUSEC1.913-169437%45%0.5
141Kent StateMAC1.817-1311951%34%1.5
142Old DominionCAA1.717-1311545%39%1.2
143AuburnSEC1.713-1615165%52%1.3
144Arizona StPac-121.715-1521348%53%4.2
145TX-ArlingtonWAC1.616-1210544%64%0.3
146DelawareCAA1.416-1217298%79%0.1
147S CarolinaSEC1.415-1515639%50%2.1
148CS FullertonBig West1.418-1116544%38%4.0
149Fla Gulf CstA-Sun1.218-1217597%82%0.7
150Weber StateBig Sky1.220-812853%64%0.0
151BuffaloMAC1.214-159536%49%0.2
152Air ForceMWC1.112-1618195%81%0.0
153VermontAm. East1.019-913356%65%0.3
154CharlotteA-100.912-1614658%66%0.0
155FairfieldMAAC0.814-1311850%52%0.1
156TX ChristianBig 120.713-1715546%58%1.4
157ColumbiaIvy0.616-1118789%83%0.9
158ToledoMAC0.615-1120681%86%2.0
159Georgia StCAA0.617-148732%24%1.3
160NC-AshevilleBig South0.618-1011039%40%1.3
161Morehead StOVC0.517-13216100%98%0.1
162S AlabamaSun Belt0.516-1220076%80%1.3
163Savannah StMEAC0.518-11190100%100%0.0
164QuinnipiacNEC0.418-1016677%77%0.0
165Geo WshgtnA-100.411-1817165%66%0.9
166TulsaCUSA0.315-159726%25%0.6
167AmericanPatriot0.217-1218231%49%4.2
168UCSBBig West0.116-1310334%40%0.0
169WI-MilwkeeHorizon0.015-1413950%46%0.7
170Loyola MymtWCC0.013-1414251%61%0.9
171San FranscoWCC-0.114-1414760%54%0.5
172Indiana StMVC-0.111-1614351%42%0.9
173Miss StateSEC-0.112-167715%18%0.0
174NebraskaBig Ten-0.210-2013737%24%1.5
175Bowling GrnMAC-0.214-1313649%56%0.1
176Miami (OH)MAC-0.213-1518440%61%2.0
177Youngs StHorizon-0.315-1416974%68%0.0
178TN StateOVC-0.415-1418085%77%0.0
179NiagaraMAAC-0.415-1424694%87%1.1
180IdahoWAC-0.414-1415350%63%0.2
181Wake ForestACC-0.610-1819383%44%0.3
182HoustonCUSA-0.717-1217441%55%1.2
183Boston ColACC-0.811-1825690%71%1.3
184UC IrvineBig West-0.915-15248100%98%0.4
185Santa ClaraWCC-0.915-1527898%86%2.4
186Texas TechBig 12-1.011-18219100%56%0.0
187San DiegoWCC-1.015-1623088%89%0.2
188Ste F AustinSouthland-1.119-916852%61%0.0
189S IllinoisMVC-1.111-1722062%56%1.8
190CornellIvy-1.116-1420541%69%1.4
191CS BakersfldInd.-1.315-1423865%68%3.4
192E Tenn StA-Sun-1.314-1515040%46%0.3
193Charl SouthBig South-1.417-1017872%68%0.0
194Cal PolyBig West-1.414-1416448%45%1.4
195James MadCAA-1.415-1623977%80%1.4
196N FloridaA-Sun-1.514-1619186%73%0.0
197TX-San AntWAC-1.513-1616752%45%0.8
198Stony BrookAm. East-1.617-1215449%57%0.0
199W IllinoisSummit-1.615-1218685%64%0.0
200W KentuckySun Belt-1.615-1520460%67%0.0
201Jksnville StOVC-1.714-12225100%78%0.2
202Miss Val StSWAC-1.816-11251100%100%1.1
203YaleIvy-1.915-1616350%53%0.0
204LA TechWAC-2.015-1620261%76%0.0
205SienaMAAC-2.113-1622763%51%1.4
206Sacred HrtNEC-2.115-1424092%92%0.0
207GA SouthernSouthern-2.215-1523654%68%2.8
208StetsonA-Sun-2.414-15250100%85%0.5
209St Fran (NY)NEC-2.415-1422288%77%0.0
210PacificBig West-2.413-15271100%88%0.0
211IL-ChicagoHorizon-2.512-1528375%63%3.2
212SeattleWAC-2.614-1522142%56%2.6
213HawaiiBig West-2.715-1221747%45%2.5
214BradleyMVC-2.710-1926049%70%1.9
215Delaware StMEAC-2.816-13258100%100%0.0
216S MethodistCUSA-2.812-1718342%48%0.7
217Rhode IslandA-10-2.88-2022328%24%2.8
218MaristMAAC-3.011-16270100%100%0.0
219Fla AtlanticSun Belt-3.214-1618557%44%0.3
220AlbanyAm. East-3.217-1220158%64%0.0
221IUPUISummit-3.313-1421041%45%0.6
222Boston UAm. East-3.414-1419254%49%0.0
223HofstraCAA-3.412-1920929%43%1.9
224TN TechOVC-3.413-1519846%38%1.5
225W MichiganMAC-3.513-1617640%40%0.0
226N ColoradoBig Sky-3.515-1324782%62%0.0
227ElonSouthern-3.614-1525281%81%0.0
228AR Lit RockSun Belt-3.714-1617335%37%0.3
229LamarSouthland-3.712-151217%28%0.0
230PortlandWCC-4.010-1928291%81%0.0
231UtahPac-12-4.010-20303100%36%3.6
232FurmanSouthern-4.014-1522957%65%0.8
233IPFWSummit-4.015-1527661%59%2.4
234NC-WilmgtonCAA-4.011-1923567%67%0.1
235U PennIvy-4.110-1814914%40%0.0
236Coastal CarBig South-4.315-1219648%40%0.0
237NC-GrnsboroSouthern-4.314-1528574%76%1.5
238E KentuckyOVC-4.315-1526533%40%3.5
239Ball StateMAC-4.413-1518839%44%0.0
240SE MissouriOVC-4.416-1423381%66%0.0
241RiderMAAC-4.411-1922452%48%0.0
242Texas StateWAC-4.511-1726154%62%1.6
243Holy CrossPatriot-4.512-1723151%64%0.0
244Portland StBig Sky-4.513-1420835%33%0.4
245RiceCUSA-4.711-1714116%19%0.0
246W CarolinaSouthern-4.712-1723452%65%0.0
247WoffordSouthern-4.713-1820326%48%0.0
248CampbellBig South-4.816-1322651%50%0.5
249E WashingtnBig Sky-4.914-1619544%34%0.1
250LipscombA-Sun-4.911-1821245%32%0.0
251St PetersMAAC-5.011-1731294%72%3.1
252TX SouthernSWAC-5.015-1627774%68%1.4
253Gard-WebbBig South-5.015-1425755%63%0.9
254McNeese StSouthland-5.114-1424351%56%0.5
255S UtahBig Sky-5.313-1624260%57%0.0
256North DakotaBig Sky-5.413-1627385%85%0.3
257JacksonvilleA-Sun-5.412-1824447%47%0.2
258Morgan StMEAC-5.512-1526456%45%1.1
259Loyola-ChiHorizon-5.611-1826764%59%0.2
260FordhamA-10-5.75-2327577%64%0.0
261NW StateSouthland-5.714-1423256%55%0.0
262E MichiganMAC-5.812-182628%59%2.2
263Wright StateHorizon-5.811-182140%44%0.2
264Sac StateBig Sky-5.814-1429197%92%0.0
265Central ConnNEC-5.911-1821823%50%0.0
266CanisiusMAAC-5.910-1932291%80%3.1
267Utah Val StGreat West-6.017-1324140%51%0.5
268Mt St MarysNEC-6.112-1729780%69%0.8
269ChattanoogaSouthern-6.114-1624953%49%0.0
270App StateSouthern-6.212-1725546%41%0.4
271LA LafayetteSun Belt-6.211-2018914%27%0.2
272Norfolk StMEAC-6.314-1620728%38%0.1
273NC CentralMEAC-6.316-1421139%52%0.0
274Wm & MaryCAA-6.510-1929656%64%1.1
275Austin PeayOVC-6.611-1721516%30%0.0
276ArmyPatriot-6.811-1629584%85%0.0
277MaineAm. East-6.912-1726851%64%0.0
278TroySun Belt-6.911-2026346%48%0.0
279High PointBig South-6.914-1323728%51%0.0
280UMKCSummit-6.911-1828143%80%0.0
281Cal St NrdgeBig West-6.911-1930274%58%0.9
282San Jose StWAC-7.010-1927440%50%0.3
283DartmouthIvy-7.010-1728780%64%0.0
284PepperdineWCC-7.29-2027923%38%2.1
285N HampshireAm. East-7.313-1529350%66%0.8
286LafayettePatriot-7.511-2024526%41%0.0
287Florida IntlSun Belt-7.59-202280%21%1.9
288LibertyBig South-7.614-1629255%58%0.3
289Beth-CookMEAC-7.614-1628064%54%0.0
290SE LouisianaSouthland-7.711-1730594%61%0.3
291SamfordSouthern-7.810-2027252%42%0.1
292PresbyterianBig South-7.912-1825423%43%0.2
293Central MichMAC-7.99-192537%26%1.1
294BrownIvy-8.09-1930963%55%1.7
295Sam Hous StSouthland-8.114-1729015%52%0.5
296MonmouthNEC-8.310-2129963%70%0.3
297Nicholls StSouthland-8.510-18339100%100%1.9
298Jackson StSWAC-8.611-16330100%100%1.2
299VA MilitaryBig South-8.612-1528639%46%0.2
300Montana StBig Sky-8.610-1728846%37%0.0
301UC RiversideBig West-8.69-192667%19%1.6
302WinthropBig South-8.711-172597%36%0.0
303Ark Pine BlSWAC-8.712-17327100%99%1.2
304NC A&TMEAC-9.112-1830150%76%0.0
305SIU EdwardOVC-9.210-1630771%81%0.3
306ColgatePatriot-9.39-2132155%60%1.8
307HowardMEAC-9.611-1731985%91%0.0
308South DakotaSummit-9.68-2028930%31%0.5
309LA MonroeSun Belt-9.77-1930877%30%1.0
310UC DavisBig West-9.78-21328100%55%1.5
311HamptonMEAC-9.710-1928424%33%0.0
312TN MartinOVC-9.89-1933387%67%1.5
313Prairie ViewSWAC-9.814-16324100%81%0.8
314CitadelSouthern-9.89-1831585%57%0.0
315HartfordAm. East-9.99-2031157%59%0.2
316Kennesaw StA-Sun-10.08-2231790%50%0.5
317Idaho StateBig Sky-10.29-2029828%45%0.0
318Coppin StateMEAC-10.29-212694%29%0.1
319RadfordBig South-10.313-1731371%56%0.0
320St Fran (PA)NEC-10.67-2230632%61%0.0
321TowsonCAA-10.77-2433750%26%3.4
322TX-Pan AmGreat West-10.914-1731470%53%0.0
323TX A&M-CCSouthland-11.18-203049%45%0.2
324E IllinoisOVC-11.59-2129413%20%0.3
325N IllinoisMAC-11.66-2233170%67%0.0
326BryantNEC-11.77-22336100%76%0.5
327NavyPatriot-11.79-2031619%52%0.0
328NJITGreat West-11.812-1530047%41%0.0
329Houston BapGreat West-12.012-1732580%67%0.0
330Alabama StSWAC-12.211-203200%47%0.7
331N ArizonaBig Sky-12.46-2333543%62%0.0
332Northern KentuckyA-Sun-12.75-22--------
333Central ArkSouthland-12.78-2033881%74%0.0
334New OrleansInd.-13.08-1731050%38%0.0
335SouthernSWAC-13.112-1832643%68%0.0
336Maryland ESMEAC-13.36-2132973%43%0.5
337Maryland BCAm. East-13.48-2134455%83%0.1
338Nebraska OmahaSummit-13.87-2233462%50%0.1
339F DickinsonNEC-13.86-243324%55%0.3
340Alab A&MSWAC-13.910-1934079%64%0.0
341BinghamtonAm. East-14.28-21346100%56%0.3
342Florida A&MMEAC-14.88-2132311%23%0.0
343Alcorn StateSWAC-15.78-2534171%48%0.0
344LongwoodBig South-15.97-2234329%50%0.0
345Chicago StGreat West-16.36-213420%48%0.0
346S Car StateMEAC-16.77-2234534%29%0.0
347Grambling StSWAC-18.74-2334750%100%0.0

OK, somehow you made it through that entire list. Give us your reaction below!

  • Dustin R.

    So Houston, adding one of the top recruits in the country in Danuel House, gets the same rating for new players as do Jackson State and Arkansas Pine Bluff? Curious.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hey, thanks for the heads up on that data error. … Though, it’s not the error you’re hoping for. We gave Arkansas Pine Bluff transfer credit they don’t deserve. Houston looks correct.

    House is only rated #29 in the RSCI index. That’s decent, but the value of recruits drops of VERY quickly after the top few. Check out this old Luke Winn article on the topic: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/11/17/freshman.realism.project/index.html … The table near the bottom shows that for a recruit of House’s rank, we’d only expect a roughly average offensive performance (NCAA average offensive rating is about 100).

  • Dustin R.

    House at #29 seems awfully low to me. Rivals and ESPN both had him top 20, despite automatically dropping him a few spots after he committed to a non-power program (Rivals had him #15 when he was uncommitted, which dropped to #20 when he became a Cougar. Hmm.) I understand the value in using an aggregate to try and improve the accuracy of recruiting rankings, but this doesn’t pass the smell test to me. (I’ll freely admit my bias, but it doesn’t necessarily mean I’m wrong.) Time will tell.

    I also take issue with disregarding JuCo transfers. Given how catastrophically lousy UH’s point guard play was last year, I think the addition of two transfers at the position will have a huge impact if one of them can just be decent.

    I know it’s easy to get starry-eyed in regards to your team before the season starts, but if ECU really finishes 3rd in C-USA and Houston finishes 10th, I will eat my shorts.

    Thanks for putting this together, very interesting read.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Well, we didn’t ignore JuCo transfers entirely by choice. It’s partly because we didn’t find an easy way to systematically account for them. But my guess is that while there are a few cases where JuCo transfers make a big difference, the *standard* effect will be fairly small.

    As for House, we don’t do any recruiting evaluation ourselves, so we just have to go with what the data says.

    Anyway, the points you laid out here do make a pretty convincing argument that Houston will be better than we projected. That will definitely happen in any systematic approach — the model can’t account for everything, and there will be some misses. Of course, there’s no way a human is going to correctly account for all those details for 347 teams, either. :)

  • Ed Feng

    Awesome. What’s the correlation coefficient for team rating from year to year?

    Marquette has been the most underrated team in college basketball for the last 4 years.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I’m sure it varies depending on the power rating used, but over the past 6 years, looks like about 0.84. So, really high.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Though keep in mind that this includes teams like Grambling State and Kentucky. So, of *course* the rating will correlate well with next year. If you limit it to teams whose year1 rating is above average, the correlation drops to 0.73.

  • 3blind

    Yesterday is another losing day vs. the spread in ncaab….down $850 if every star is worth $100.