College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings For 2015-16

November 12, 2015 - by David Hess

We’re finished crunching the numbers, and we’ve loaded our official preseason team ratings for the 2015-2016 college basketball season into our database. These are the ratings that drive our preseason projections, and serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses.

(Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Just like last season, below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, the AP poll, and more. We’ve also posted the full rankings and ratings for all 351 Division I teams.

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

College Basketball Projected Conference Standings. Projected conference records and full regular season records, plus win odds for both the conference regular season title and the postseason tournament.
Bracketology Projections. Odds to make the NCAA tournament, plus projected seeding, and lots more details. (One of our faves is the Bracketology By Conference page.)
NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions. Round by round advancement odds, including probability of a team making the Sweet 16, making the Final Four, and winning the championship.

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

Ratings Method & Accuracy

The basic idea is that we establish a baseline prediction for a team, given their power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of their recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season.

For a more complete description, check out our blog post from two years ago. The main thing that’s changed since then is simply that we refit the model with another year of data.

Before we get to the rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy has compared our conference win projections with his and a couple other stat-based prognosticators the last three years. In terms of average error, both last year and the year before we finished second best out of four (beating Pomeroy both years, but finishing a hair behind Dan Hanner), and three years ago we finished as the best of three.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have more than held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems, and we expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 351 teams.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

Our 2015-16 college basketball preseason ratings (TR)
Ken Pomeroy’s preseason ratings (KP)
Dan Hanner’s preseason rankings, posted at SI.com (DH)
AP poll (AP)
Coaches poll (Coaches)

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system, along with an average rank, and finally a column showing how far TR is from the consensus (positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse). Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

2015-16 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Comparison
Team	TR	KP	DH	AP	Coaches	AVG	TR Diff
N Carolina	1	7	1	1	2	2.4	1.4
Kentucky	5	2	3	2	1	2.6	-2.4
Kansas	2	4	2	4	5	3.4	1.4
Duke	3	1	4	5	4	3.4	0.4
Virginia	4	3	6	6	6	5.0	1.0
Villanova	9	5	8	11	9	8.4	-0.6
Arizona	6	6	11	12	10	9.0	3.0
Gonzaga	8	8	9	9	11	9.0	1.0
Maryland	10	24	5	3	3	9.0	-1.0
Wichita St	7	15	7	10	12	10.2	3.2
Oklahoma	13	11	12	8	8	10.4	-2.6
Iowa St	14	19	10	7	7	11.4	-2.6
Indiana	11	13	14	15	15	13.6	2.6
Michigan St	12	18	15	13	13	14.2	2.2
Utah	16	12	16	16	16	15.2	-0.8
Wisconsin	18	9	34	17	17	19.0	1.0
Notre Dame	25	16	23	19	18	20.2	-4.8
Baylor	17	10	37	22	21	21.4	4.4
SMU	21	23	17	27	--	22.0	1.0
California	22	47	13	14	14	22.0	0.0
Purdue	19	22	26	23	25	23.0	4.0
Michigan	24	17	27	25	26	23.8	-0.2
Connecticut	27	32	19	20	24	24.4	-2.6
Louisville	20	25	22	32	27	25.2	5.2
Vanderbilt	36	20	33	18	20	25.4	-10.6
Butler	23	29	36	24	22	26.8	3.8
Cincinnati	29	14	31	30	31	27.0	-2.0
Texas	15	34	20	35	34	27.6	12.6
Georgetown	30	27	18	33	30	27.6	-2.4
Miami FL	26	21	25	31	37	28.0	2.0
W Virginia	31	28	32	28	23	28.4	-2.6
LSU	32	49	30	21	19	30.2	-1.8
Xavier	33	31	21	39	36	32.0	-1.0
San Diego St	43	40	24	46	38	38.2	-4.8

A few points stick out:

We rank North Carolina #1, as do Dan Hanner and the AP Poll. The Coaches Poll has Kentucky #1, and Ken Pomeroy has Duke in the top spot.
Compared to the crowd, we’re most pessimistic about Vanderbilt, who we rank 3 to 18 spots lower than other projections. Vandy is returning a large fraction of their production from last year, but they weren’t rated all that highly last season, so that returning production isn’t as much of a boone as it would be to a better team. In addition, they have zero consensus top-100 freshman recruits, and their ratings history from the prior few season sets a low baseline for the program.
On the other hand, we’re more optimistic about Texas, who we rank 5 to 20 spots higher than other projections. Despite their mediocre record last year, Texas’s power rating was in the top 20 to end the season. Among teams ranked that high, only 6 had better recruiting classes, only 5 returned a higher fraction of their 2014-15 production, and only 1 (Kansas) did both of those things. (Our ratings don’t “know” that Shaka Smart is taking over as head coach, but that doesn’t seem like a bad thing, either.)
We’ve got Kentucky ranked #5, while they’re no lower than #3 in other projections. That may not seem like a big difference, but if you look past the ranking and examine the underlying ratings (posted at the end of this article), we have Kentucky closer to being #13 than to being #1.

Why Don’t We Have Kentucky Higher?

Let’s dig a little deeper on our relatively low Kentucky rating. Kentucky has lost star players and reloaded in the past; why would this year be any different? Several reasons:

Our estimates show this year’s team returning only 12% of its 2014-15 production, which would be the third-lowest value in Calipari’s seven year tenure.
In addition, the Wildcats lost four first round draft picks from last year’s team; that’s only the third time so much talent has departed Lexington at once.
Finally, based on our analysis of the RSCI recruiting rankings, this is Calipari’s second worst incoming freshman class at Kentucky.

The two past Calipari-at-Kentucky seasons with profiles that most closely match the above bullet points are 2010-11 (when a young Kentucky team earned a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament, then made a run to the Final Four the year before winning it all), and 2012-13 (when Kentucky missed the NCAA tournament entirely).

One thing does set this year’s team apart from those two past examples, though — Kentucky’s 2014-15 power rating was by far the highest in Calipari’s tenure. That high baseline means that even if Kentucky’s rating drops as much as it did in those two past examples, the Wildcats will still be a very good team. That’s what keeps them in our top five.

Full Rankings, From #1 To #351

Here’s the full list.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

This is important at the top of the rankings this season. #1 North Carolina, #2 Kansas, and #3 Duke are separated by less than half a ratings point total. But #4 Virginia is a full 1.4 ratings points behind Duke. So our preseason ratings essentially see a triumvirate of “best teams in the land.”

[UPDATE: After posting these ratings, it was announced that David Collette is leaving Utah State. We’ve the ratings in this post to account for that.]

Rank	Team	Rating
1	N Carolina	19.7
2	Kansas	19.6
3	Duke	19.4
4	Virginia	18.0
5	Kentucky	17.7
6	Arizona	17.0
7	Wichita St	16.6
8	Gonzaga	16.5
9	Villanova	16.4
10	Maryland	16.3
11	Indiana	15.9
12	Michigan St	15.8
13	Oklahoma	15.3
14	Iowa State	14.6
15	Texas	13.8
16	Utah	13.5
17	Baylor	13.4
18	Wisconsin	13.3
19	Purdue	13.3
20	Louisville	13.3
21	S Methodist	13.2
22	California	13.1
23	Butler	13.1
24	Michigan	13.0
25	Notre Dame	12.8
26	Miami (FL)	12.8
27	Connecticut	12.7
28	Ohio State	12.6
29	Cincinnati	12.3
30	Georgetown	12.2
31	W Virginia	11.9
32	LSU	11.9
33	Xavier	11.8
34	Florida	11.8
35	Pittsburgh	11.6
36	Vanderbilt	11.0
37	VCU	11.0
38	Illinois	11.0
39	Syracuse	10.9
40	Davidson	10.8
41	Oregon	10.7
42	Iowa	10.5
43	San Diego St	10.4
44	Geo Wshgtn	10.4
45	NC State	10.4
46	Oklahoma St	10.3
47	Texas A&M	10.2
48	Valparaiso	10.2
49	UCLA	10.2
50	Rhode Island	9.8
51	Tulsa	9.6
52	Florida St	9.3
53	BYU	9.2
54	GA Tech	8.9
55	Clemson	8.9
56	S Carolina	8.7
57	Dayton	8.6
58	Ste F Austin	8.6
59	Richmond	8.4
60	Memphis	8.3
61	Stony Brook	8.0
62	Oregon St	8.0
63	Georgia	7.9
64	UNLV	7.8
65	Creighton	7.6
66	Boise State	7.5
67	Providence	7.4
68	Iona	7.0
69	Marquette	6.8
70	Illinois St	6.6
71	Minnesota	6.6
72	Colorado	6.5
73	N Iowa	6.5
74	Northwestern	6.4
75	Mississippi	6.4
76	Seton Hall	6.4
77	Evansville	6.3
78	USC	6.1
79	Central Mich	6.1
80	Old Dominion	6.1
81	New Mexico	6.0
82	UAB	5.9
83	Arkansas	5.9
84	Temple	5.8
85	Tennessee	5.8
86	Pepperdine	5.8
87	Stanford	5.7
88	Arizona St	5.6
89	Wake Forest	5.5
90	LA Lafayette	5.5
91	Columbia	5.4
92	S Dakota St	5.3
93	Belmont	5.3
94	Alabama	5.3
95	Vermont	5.1
96	Hofstra	4.9
97	Akron	4.7
98	LA Tech	4.7
99	Miss State	4.5
100	St Josephs	4.5
101	Georgia St	4.2
102	Coastal Car	3.8
103	Colorado St	3.7
104	Utah State	3.7
105	St Bonavent	3.7
106	UCSB	3.6
107	U Mass	3.6
108	Hawaii	3.5
109	La Salle	3.4
110	Princeton	3.4
111	VA Tech	3.3
112	UC Irvine	3.3
113	Yale	3.2
114	Wm & Mary	3.1
115	Auburn	3.0
116	Middle Tenn	3.0
117	Cal Poly	3.0
118	Nebraska	2.9
119	Texas Tech	2.9
120	Kent State	2.8
121	Buffalo	2.7
122	Penn State	2.7
123	Kansas St	2.5
124	Northeastrn	2.4
125	N Florida	2.3
126	Loyola-Chi	2.2
127	Lehigh	2.2
128	St Marys	2.2
129	Wash State	2.1
130	N Mex State	2.1
131	Murray St	2.0
132	DePaul	1.9
133	TX Christian	1.9
134	Indiana St	1.7
135	Fresno St	1.7
136	Boston U	1.7
137	WI-Grn Bay	1.5
138	North Dakota State	1.4
139	Albany	1.4
140	Wofford	1.3
141	Lg Beach St	1.1
142	Bucknell	1.0
143	James Mad	0.8
144	Toledo	0.8
145	Washington	0.8
146	Duquesne	0.7
147	NC Central	0.6
148	Missouri	0.5
149	Chattanooga	0.5
150	Rider	0.4
151	TX El Paso	0.4
152	Saint Louis	0.3
153	New Jersey Tech	0.2
154	Montana	0.1
155	High Point	0.1
156	Harvard	-0.1
157	W Michigan	-0.2
158	St Johns	-0.2
159	Detroit	-0.2
160	Geo Mason	-0.3
161	NW State	-0.3
162	San Diego	-0.4
163	Houston	-0.4
164	Ball State	-0.5
165	E Michigan	-0.5
166	Miami (OH)	-0.6
167	Oakland	-0.6
168	Weber State	-0.6
169	Wyoming	-0.8
170	N Hampshire	-0.9
171	Wright State	-0.9
172	Monmouth	-1.0
173	Manhattan	-1.1
174	San Fransco	-1.1
175	Pacific	-1.1
176	Portland	-1.1
177	Sam Hous St	-1.1
178	Army	-1.2
179	Mercer	-1.2
180	E Washingtn	-1.4
181	Canisius	-1.5
182	Nevada	-1.5
183	Delaware	-1.6
184	Boston Col	-1.7
185	Bowling Grn	-1.7
186	E Carolina	-1.7
187	W Kentucky	-1.8
188	LA Monroe	-2.0
189	Cleveland St	-2.0
190	Fordham	-2.0
191	NC-Wilmgton	-2.0
192	Missouri St	-2.0
193	Drexel	-2.1
194	UC Riverside	-2.1
195	American	-2.2
196	TX A&M-CC	-2.3
197	Santa Clara	-2.3
198	E Kentucky	-2.3
199	S Illinois	-2.4
200	Oral Roberts	-2.4
201	WI-Milwkee	-2.5
202	Fairfield	-2.6
203	LIU-Brooklyn	-2.6
204	U Penn	-2.6
205	S Florida	-2.7
206	Morehead St	-2.7
207	Mt St Marys	-2.8
208	Marshall	-2.9
209	Denver	-2.9
210	Rutgers	-2.9
211	Norfolk St	-2.9
212	Rob Morris	-3.0
213	UC Davis	-3.0
214	Grand Canyon	-3.0
215	Central FL	-3.1
216	Dartmouth	-3.2
217	Rice	-3.2
218	Towson	-3.2
219	AR Lit Rock	-3.2
220	Tulane	-3.3
221	TX-Arlington	-3.4
222	South Carolina Upstate	-3.5
223	Loyola-MD	-3.5
224	Drake	-3.5
225	Texas State	-3.5
226	N Illinois	-3.5
227	St Fran (NY)	-3.6
228	TX Southern	-3.6
229	Fla Gulf Cst	-3.6
230	TN Martin	-3.7
231	Charlotte	-3.7
232	Air Force	-3.8
233	Ohio	-3.9
234	NC-Grnsboro	-4.1
235	Hampton	-4.1
236	W Carolina	-4.1
237	S Alabama	-4.2
238	IPFW	-4.3
239	Arkansas St	-4.3
240	Fla Atlantic	-4.5
241	SE Missouri	-4.7
242	Furman	-4.7
243	N Arizona	-4.8
244	E Tenn St	-4.8
245	Winthrop	-4.8
246	VA Military	-4.9
247	CS Fullerton	-4.9
248	Col Charlestn	-4.9
249	Brown	-5.0
250	CS Bakersfld	-5.0
251	Bryant	-5.0
252	Lafayette	-5.1
253	TN State	-5.1
254	Elon	-5.2
255	Sacred Hrt	-5.2
256	Holy Cross	-5.2
257	Incarnate Word	-5.3
258	App State	-5.3
259	Lamar	-5.4
260	Idaho	-5.4
261	TN Tech	-5.5
262	Quinnipiac	-5.5
263	Siena	-5.6
264	Portland St	-5.6
265	NC-Asheville	-5.7
266	IUPUI	-5.7
267	W Illinois	-5.8
268	St Peters	-5.8
269	Gard-Webb	-5.9
270	GA Southern	-6.0
271	Wagner	-6.0
272	Nebraska Omaha	-6.0
273	TX-San Ant	-6.1
274	St Fran (PA)	-6.1
275	UMKC	-6.1
276	Sac State	-6.1
277	Lipscomb	-6.3
278	S Mississippi	-6.4
279	Florida Intl	-6.4
280	South Dakota	-6.5
281	Northern Kentucky	-6.5
282	Hartford	-6.6
283	SE Louisiana	-6.6
284	Loyola Mymt	-6.7
285	Howard	-6.7
286	Colgate	-6.7
287	Youngs St	-6.8
288	Radford	-6.8
289	Cornell	-6.8
290	Navy	-6.9
291	E Illinois	-6.9
292	Jackson St	-6.9
293	Southern	-7.1
294	Seattle	-7.3
295	S Utah	-7.3
296	Cal St Nrdge	-7.4
297	Charl South	-7.4
298	NC A&T	-7.5
299	IL-Chicago	-7.5
300	North Texas	-7.6
301	Maryland ES	-7.6
302	Austin Peay	-7.8
303	Samford	-7.9
304	N Colorado	-8.0
305	Troy	-8.0
306	Campbell	-8.1
307	Jacksonville	-8.1
308	Binghamton	-8.3
309	Utah Val St	-8.3
310	Bradley	-8.4
311	Houston Bap	-8.6
312	Massachusetts Lowell	-8.7
313	New Orleans	-8.7
314	Alabama St	-8.8
315	Niagara	-8.9
316	Marist	-8.9
317	Morgan St	-8.9
318	Longwood	-8.9
319	Alab A&M	-9.2
320	SIU Edward	-9.7
321	McNeese St	-9.9
322	Maine	-10.0
323	F Dickinson	-10.0
324	Montana St	-10.1
325	Stetson	-10.1
326	Savannah St	-10.4
327	North Dakota	-10.5
328	Beth-Cook	-10.5
329	Presbyterian	-10.7
330	Delaware St	-10.9
331	Chicago St	-11.0
332	Jksnville St	-11.1
333	Nicholls St	-11.2
334	S Car State	-11.3
335	Prairie View	-11.4
336	Idaho State	-11.7
337	TX-Pan Am	-11.7
338	Abilene Christian	-12.1
339	Central Conn	-12.2
340	San Jose St	-12.2
341	Ark Pine Bl	-12.2
342	Maryland BC	-12.5
343	Citadel	-12.9
344	Liberty	-13.1
345	Kennesaw St	-14.0
346	Alcorn State	-14.3
347	Central Ark	-14.8
348	Coppin State	-17.4
349	Florida A&M	-17.7
350	Miss Val St	-20.0
351	Grambling St	-23.3

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these ratings. There’s a ton to see:

College Basketball Projected Conference Standings. Projected conference records and full regular season records, plus win odds for both the conference regular season title and the postseason tournament.
Bracketology Projections. Odds to make the NCAA tournament, plus projected seeding, and lots more details.
NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions. Round by round advancement odds, including probability of a team making the Sweet 16, making the Final Four, and winning the championship.