2020 College Basketball Preseason Projections: Conference Standings, Win Totals

College Basketball Predictions

Davion Mitchell and the Baylor Bears are our favorites to win a tough Big 12 (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire)

Yesterday we published our official 2020 college basketball preseason ratings. That means we also now have full 2020-21 college basketball projected standings for all teams, including:

All of these projections are data-driven and automated, and they update every morning throughout the season to incorporate the previous day’s game results.

Our 2020 College Basketball Projections Data

There’s a lot of info in the giant table below. You’ll find:

  • Full conference standings projections
  • Projected regular season records
  • Conference win odds (regular season)
  • Conference tournament win odds

But first, let’s point out a few highlights from our 2020-21 college basketball preseason projected standings.

Note: We adjusted Gonzaga’s predictive rating up by 0.5 points on Tuesday, November 24, after this post was originally published, to account for the just-announced eligibility of Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard. As a result, projection numbers quoted for Gonzaga in this piece have likely improved at least slightly. Our latest numbers are always available at the links listed at the top of this post.

Projections Highlights: Conference Winner Odds

Here are our projected regular season winners for the major conferences, along with their win odds:

  • American: Houston (43%)
  • ACC: Duke (23%)
  • Big 12: Baylor (24%)
  • Big East: Villanova (50%)
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (19%)
  • Pac-12: Oregon (23%)
  • SEC: Kentucky (23%)

Some observations here:

  • Five of those seven conferences have the same favorite as our preseason projections a season ago.
  • One of the two switches is Baylor, who is ever-so-slightly ahead of Kansas, but it’s essentially a dead heat. Baylor is less than 1% more likely to win the Big 12 than Kansas.
  • The other change is the Pac-12, where Oregon replaces Arizona, our preseason favorite a year ago.
  • Notably, none of these conferences has a strong favorite. None of our projected winners have more than a 50% chance to do so, and the favorite in five of the seven major conferences only has a 1-on-4 chance or less to win. These conferences are all tight this year.

Biggest Mid-Major Conference Favorites

Outside the major conferences, five schools have over a 50% chance of winning their regular season conference title.

  • Gonzaga (81% to win West Coast)
  • Vermont (70% to win America East)
  • Winthrop (68% to win Big South)
  • South Dakota State (62% to win Summit)
  • New Mexico State (56% to win WAC)

Gonzaga is the largest conference favorite of the year, and we give the Zags over an 80% chance of holding off St. Mary’s, BYU, and San Francisco. BYU and St. Mary’s had very good seasons as the Gonzaga’s biggest challengers last year, but we expect those teams to take a step back in 2020-21.

Last year, we had eight projected conference champions with at least a 50% chance of winning the regular season title, so this season also looks more balanced among the mid-majors.

Wide Open Atlantic 10

A year after Dayton dominated the Atlantic 10 and was on track to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the conference looks far more balanced. Dayton lost first team All-American Obi Toppin, and is expected to fall back toward the pack.

Our simulations project seven A-10 teams to have between 10.2 and 11.9 wins, with all seven of those teams having between a 9% and 19% chance of winning the regular season conference title.

Brutal Big 12

Five of the top 11 teams in our preseason college basketball power ratings are from the Big 12. With the round-robin schedule among all the conference members, that makes for a very tough schedule for anyone hoping to win the league (or earn a NCAA Tournament berth).

We currently project Baylor to win the conference, but with a most likely record of 12-6. In other words, with such a deep conference, the Big 12 could beat up on each other this season, with several strong teams ending up with win-loss records that don’t look that impressive.

When you account for (a) generally tougher non-conference schedules because of fewer low-quality games, and (b) a strong top half of the conference, you could see several Big 12 teams finish with 7 or 8 losses this year and still get high seeds in the NCAA tournament.

2020 College Basketball Projected Standings (Preseason)

For a lot more info on any team, click their name in the associated conference table below to view their season projections page. Once there, be sure to also check out the team Bracketology link at the top of the page.

Other than that, just keep in mind the following two notes:

  • Scheduled games only. Our preseason win-loss record projections only account for already-scheduled games, so they will be missing some early season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.
  • Coronavirus impact on schedules. Team schedules are changing daily, it seems, due to positive coronavirus tests and quarantines. So some of the win-loss records below are bound to become out of date quickly as games get postponed. We will not be updating this post in the future; see our college basketball projections page for the latest projections we have.

2020 ACC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Duke8.23.814.34.723.1%22.3%
Virginia8.13.913.65.420.9%20.6%
Florida St7.34.711.25.813.2%12.2%
N Carolina6.96.110.37.77.5%8.5%
Louisville6.76.311.58.56.2%7.0%
Syracuse6.56.59.37.74.5%3.9%
Miami (FL)6.25.89.46.64.8%4.4%
NC State5.05.09.96.14.4%4.0%
VA Tech4.95.110.86.23.8%4.5%
Notre Dame4.96.18.39.72.3%2.5%
GA Tech4.55.59.97.13.1%3.6%
Clemson4.55.58.57.53.5%4.2%
Pittsburgh3.96.16.87.21.5%1.1%
Boston Col2.86.24.09.00.8%0.5%
Wake Forest2.56.57.16.90.4%0.5%

The ACC is playing a 12-game schedule this year, and not everyone is playing each other, so there is some schedule imbalance. Duke is ahead of Virginia in our rankings. While Virginia does have the easier schedule (e.g. the Cavaliers play expected ACC cellar dweller Boston College but Duke does not), Virginia has to go to Cameron Indoor for the only regular season game between the two, which could be decisive.

2020 America East Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Vermont15.22.815.22.869.6%57.4%
Maryland BC10.17.913.110.96.7%8.5%
N Hampshire10.08.010.98.15.3%7.6%
Stony Brook9.78.313.110.95.0%6.7%
NJIT9.38.710.59.53.7%5.7%
Mass Lowell9.09.010.111.93.5%4.9%
Hartford8.89.29.810.23.2%4.5%
Albany8.79.39.49.62.7%4.1%
Binghamton4.713.34.713.30.2%0.3%
Maine4.513.55.817.20.1%0.3%

America East teams currently have very few non-conference games on the schedule. Like many mid-major conferences, they are also playing two games at the same venue during one road trip, rather than rotating home and away. That should reduce travel but could lead to some interesting results as teams have quick turnarounds against each other. The last time Vermont did not win the regular season title was in 2016, and they are the heavy favorite again.

2020 AAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Houston15.34.720.66.442.9%34.2%
Memphis12.97.114.98.115.7%15.8%
Cincinnati12.57.515.39.713.2%13.8%
S Methodist12.47.616.48.613.0%13.5%
Wichita St10.69.413.012.05.5%7.0%
S Florida9.910.112.912.13.6%5.3%
Central FL9.410.610.513.52.9%4.1%
Tulsa9.110.912.013.02.4%3.7%
Temple7.013.08.716.30.5%1.2%
E Carolina6.713.39.915.10.3%1.0%
Tulane4.115.97.317.70.0%0.2%

The American Conference lost Connecticut to the Big East, which means the conference now has 11 members and can play a 20-game schedule with a true round robin format. Houston is the conference favorite, while Memphis, Cincinnati, and SMU are the most likely contenders to knock them off.

2020 Atlantic 10 Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Richmond11.96.117.79.319.3%16.6%
Dayton11.35.715.16.916.8%17.8%
Saint Louis11.25.813.36.715.5%15.1%
Davidson11.07.014.58.511.5%9.8%
Rhode Island10.87.214.910.19.9%9.9%
Duquesne10.57.512.48.68.7%8.6%
St Bonavent10.26.811.57.58.6%9.5%
VCU9.18.914.412.64.2%5.6%
Geo Mason9.09.015.012.03.1%3.6%
U Mass7.910.18.410.61.6%2.0%
La Salle6.211.89.816.20.5%0.6%
St Josephs5.412.67.617.40.2%0.4%
Geo Wshgtn5.211.86.814.20.1%0.4%
Fordham4.313.77.016.00.0%0.1%

As noted earlier, the Atlantic 10 looks like perhaps the most balanced league entering the year, with no clear favorite. Dayton is expected to take a big step back from last year’s historic season, but will still be a contender to win the league.

2020 Atlantic Sun Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Liberty11.34.718.37.735.4%31.0%
Lipscomb10.25.817.49.621.3%20.2%
Fla Gulf Cst9.56.512.48.613.3%14.2%
N Florida9.26.814.512.512.0%13.2%
North Alabama8.17.915.910.17.1%7.7%
Stetson7.18.98.711.34.1%5.0%
Bellarmine7.09.011.615.43.1%4.3%
Jacksonville6.99.19.612.43.6%4.2%
Kennesaw St2.713.36.618.40.0%0.1%

The Atlantic Sun is also playing a 16-game schedule where teams play the same team at home twice or on the road twice. Liberty is the favorite (they have won the conference tourney the last two years) but they have to play Lipscomb on the road twice in early January.

2020 Big 12 Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Baylor12.25.818.67.424.0%22.4%
Kansas12.15.918.37.723.5%22.0%
W Virginia11.76.317.67.418.6%18.3%
Texas11.16.916.78.314.3%14.9%
Texas Tech11.07.018.88.213.1%14.1%
Oklahoma8.69.413.811.23.7%5.4%
Oklahoma St7.810.212.912.11.8%0.0%
TX Christian5.812.211.414.60.5%1.3%
Iowa State5.612.410.113.90.4%1.1%
Kansas St4.113.99.817.20.1%0.4%

The Big 12 is top heavy, and with non-conference schedules being reduced, it’s going to be a challenge for any of the five teams in the bottom half of the projections to break through and get enough wins to have an impressive overall record.

2020 Big East Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Villanova15.54.519.45.650.4%38.3%
Creighton13.66.415.07.023.5%22.2%
Marquette10.010.014.111.94.5%6.2%
Seton Hall9.810.211.512.54.0%5.7%
Providence9.710.312.511.54.1%5.6%
Connecticut9.610.410.310.73.7%5.3%
Butler9.310.712.611.43.1%4.9%
Xavier9.210.814.412.62.8%4.5%
St Johns8.311.712.613.41.7%3.0%
DePaul8.111.98.512.51.5%2.8%
Georgetown7.013.010.114.90.6%1.6%

The Big East adds Connecticut back to the conference and will go to a 20-game schedule with true round robin. Villanova is the favorite in a conference with a large middle class of potential NCAA tournament contenders. Six teams are projected to win between 9.2 and 10.0 games in conference play.

2020 Big Sky Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
E Washingtn14.65.416.77.340.4%31.3%
Montana12.77.313.39.718.2%17.1%
N Colorado11.48.613.210.810.6%11.3%
S Utah11.18.915.810.28.8%10.2%
Montana St10.29.810.711.36.1%7.2%
Portland St10.19.910.19.95.1%6.8%
Sac State9.410.611.313.73.8%5.3%
Weber State9.210.810.912.13.8%4.9%
N Arizona8.211.89.114.92.0%3.1%
Idaho State7.212.810.316.71.0%1.9%
Idaho5.814.27.918.10.3%0.8%

The Big Sky mostly is adopting the two-away-or-two-home format, but will have a couple of series where the teams will play each other at home. Eastern Washington and Montana, the two favorites, will play each other at home in the span of three days late in the year in what could decide the regular season title.

2020 Big South Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Winthrop16.83.218.65.468.1%54.4%
NC-Asheville12.67.415.610.410.4%12.9%
Gard-Webb12.29.813.213.86.0%7.6%
Campbell12.29.814.211.84.9%7.3%
Radford10.39.714.413.63.7%5.2%
Charl South9.610.412.914.12.4%3.9%
SC Upstate9.110.911.114.92.1%3.2%
High Point7.912.110.016.01.0%1.7%
Hampton7.812.29.114.90.8%1.6%
Longwood7.612.410.315.70.8%1.5%
Presbyterian5.914.17.417.60.2%0.6%

The Big South will play back-to-back games at the same venue throughout conference season, and is going to an expanded 20-game conference schedule with all teams playing twice.

2020 Big Ten Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Michigan St13.77.316.48.619.0%16.4%
Wisconsin13.07.016.27.817.7%14.8%
Illinois12.47.616.79.313.1%11.2%
Iowa11.26.815.27.814.5%15.3%
Michigan11.08.014.38.78.7%9.4%
Indiana10.79.313.710.36.4%7.3%
Ohio State10.58.515.59.57.1%8.0%
Purdue9.58.514.010.05.0%5.6%
Rutgers9.29.811.610.43.3%4.3%
Maryland8.19.913.511.52.3%2.6%
Minnesota7.09.010.49.62.2%3.1%
Penn State6.611.49.813.20.6%1.3%
Northwestern5.212.87.713.30.3%0.7%
Nebraska3.015.04.016.00.0%0.0%

The Big Ten was loaded last year and looks like a deep conference again this year, where only Northwestern, Nebraska, and Penn State (after head coach Pat Chambers resigned in October) looking like teams that will have difficulty contending.

2020 Big West Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
UCSB14.15.916.46.630.7%27.7%
UC Irvine13.96.115.08.029.7%25.3%
CS Bakersfld11.09.011.89.27.6%9.9%
Hawaii10.99.111.79.38.8%9.9%
UC Riverside10.69.411.310.77.5%8.8%
UC Davis10.39.714.813.26.3%7.9%
UC San Diego9.510.59.510.53.8%0.0%
Lg Beach St9.110.910.613.42.9%4.8%
CS Fullerton8.211.88.512.51.6%3.2%
Cal Poly6.513.58.217.80.6%1.4%
Cal St Nrdge6.113.97.415.60.4%1.1%

The Big West will play two-away-or-two-home format this season, which means only five road trips for Hawaii to California, and only half of the California schools visiting Honolulu this season.

2020 CAA Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Col Charlestn10.87.214.410.621.1%17.7%
Towson10.08.014.512.514.1%13.3%
Northeastrn9.88.212.911.113.2%13.0%
Hofstra9.88.211.610.413.4%12.6%
Drexel9.68.413.311.711.7%11.7%
James Mad8.59.511.713.37.1%8.0%
Wm & Mary8.010.011.915.15.0%6.2%
Elon7.810.211.714.34.6%5.8%
NC-Wilmgton7.810.212.514.54.9%5.9%
Delaware7.810.29.411.65.1%5.8%

Every team in the CAA is projected for between 7.8 and 10.8 wins and has at least a 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament via the conference tournament winner auto-bid.

2020 Conference USA Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
W Kentucky12.35.717.67.423.8%20.8%
Marshall11.56.517.79.316.7%16.3%
LA Tech11.26.817.99.113.0%13.0%
Old Dominion10.97.115.49.611.8%12.2%
UAB10.97.118.09.010.4%9.5%
North Texas10.47.613.29.810.6%11.1%
TX-San Ant9.28.813.510.54.1%3.7%
Florida Intl8.89.212.810.23.3%3.8%
TX El Paso8.09.09.310.72.3%2.9%
Middle Tenn7.510.511.413.61.7%2.5%
Fla Atlantic7.210.812.414.61.0%1.6%
Charlotte6.611.48.915.10.9%1.6%
S Mississippi5.812.28.915.10.3%0.5%
Rice4.712.38.814.20.2%0.5%

Conference USA has had five different schools win a regular season title in the last six years. This year’s favorite, Western Kentucky, is not one of them and has not won a regular season or tournament title since joining the league after leaving the Sun Belt Conference.

2020 Horizon League Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Wright State14.65.415.76.340.0%33.3%
N Kentucky12.37.714.610.416.6%16.1%
IPFW11.38.713.39.79.1%9.5%
IL-Chicago10.19.912.111.95.9%6.9%
Youngs St10.010.010.011.05.4%6.4%
WI-Grn Bay9.910.110.613.45.0%5.9%
Rob Morris9.910.111.411.65.2%5.9%
Oakland9.510.510.415.64.5%5.4%
Detroit8.711.39.313.72.6%3.1%
WI-Milwkee8.511.58.612.42.5%3.0%
Cleveland St8.211.88.512.52.2%2.7%
IUPUI7.212.88.013.01.1%1.6%

Wright State is favored to win the Horizon League in our projections, but they have come up short in the conference tournament each of the last two years, with Northern Kentucky winning the tournament both times.

2020 MAAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Siena12.87.212.87.225.6%20.3%
Canisius11.89.211.89.213.7%12.8%
St Peters11.68.412.39.713.5%14.4%
Monmouth11.57.512.99.117.4%15.9%
Iona10.69.412.011.09.2%9.6%
Rider9.511.510.712.34.3%5.2%
Fairfield9.011.010.914.14.3%5.4%
Niagara8.510.58.510.54.3%5.2%
Manhattan8.310.78.911.13.7%5.0%
Marist7.712.37.712.32.1%3.1%
Quinnipiac6.911.18.412.61.8%3.1%

The Metro Atlantic will play Friday-Saturday games at one venue between conference rivals each week starting in December, making for short turnarounds and no weeknight games in the conference this year.

2020 MAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Buffalo13.07.015.59.525.1%20.1%
Ball State11.98.113.69.415.1%14.2%
Akron11.68.413.010.013.5%13.8%
Toledo11.28.815.012.010.2%9.9%
Ohio11.18.912.310.710.8%10.7%
Bowling Grn10.29.812.311.77.2%8.0%
E Michigan9.610.49.711.35.4%6.1%
Miami (OH)9.310.712.412.64.3%5.4%
Kent State9.110.911.112.93.7%4.8%
N Illinois8.711.311.112.92.7%3.7%
W Michigan7.112.97.314.71.1%1.8%
Central Mich7.112.97.112.91.0%1.6%

Buffalo is the favorite, but four other teams have at least a 10% chance to win the regular season title. The MAC will continue to play home-away series in 2020-21, with each team playing 9 other conference opponents twice, and playing a single game against the remaining two teams.

2020 MEAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Norfolk St9.73.312.86.243.3%32.6%
NC Central8.04.09.97.119.1%21.3%
NC A&T7.45.610.012.013.4%14.4%
Morgan St7.06.011.29.89.2%9.4%
Coppin State6.66.48.214.87.4%7.8%
Florida A&M5.66.46.210.84.1%7.5%
Howard4.98.16.114.91.8%2.8%
Delaware St4.38.75.313.71.1%1.9%
S Car State3.58.54.817.20.5%2.3%

Bethune-Cookman and Maryland-Eastern Shore will not play this season, with UMES opting out of spring sports this week. That leaves nine teams competing for this season, and right now the schedules are at 12-13 games in conference.

2020 Mountain West Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
San Diego St16.14.918.66.441.4%32.2%
Utah State14.46.617.17.922.7%20.3%
Boise State13.77.315.09.015.2%15.0%
Colorado St11.89.214.111.96.3%8.8%
Nevada11.59.513.710.35.2%6.8%
UNLV11.29.812.611.44.9%8.9%
Wyoming9.612.414.614.41.8%3.0%
Fresno St9.013.011.814.21.0%2.0%
New Mexico8.712.38.712.31.3%2.3%
Air Force6.114.96.615.40.2%0.6%
San Jose St4.215.85.416.60.0%0.1%

San Diego State dominated the Mountain West last season, until Utah State beat them in the conference tournament. Those two teams are expected to compete again for the conference title.

2020 Missouri Valley Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Loyola-Chi13.74.314.74.342.3%34.9%
N Iowa12.95.114.97.129.6%26.6%
Indiana St10.67.414.29.810.5%11.7%
Bradley9.98.115.311.77.3%8.8%
Valparaiso8.49.611.812.23.0%4.8%
Drake8.19.910.011.02.3%4.0%
Missouri St7.810.213.511.52.1%3.6%
S Illinois7.710.310.111.91.8%3.3%
Illinois St6.611.48.212.81.1%2.0%
Evansville4.213.86.017.00.1%0.3%

Loyola-Chicago will try to return to the tournament for the first time since their 2018 Final Four run. Northern Iowa were the regular season champs last year, and Loyola-Chicago the year before that, but it’s been Bradley who has won the last two Arch Madness tournaments in St. Louis.

2020 NEC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
St Fran (PA)10.97.113.210.820.5%20.7%
F Dickinson10.57.512.511.516.2%17.2%
Mt St Marys10.37.713.211.815.2%15.8%
LIU10.08.010.08.013.6%14.2%
Sacred Hrt9.38.712.513.59.2%10.5%
St Fran (NY)8.79.39.010.07.0%8.1%
Merrimack8.79.38.79.37.2%0.0%
Bryant8.49.69.612.45.9%7.1%
Wagner7.810.28.110.94.6%5.3%
Central Conn5.312.76.014.00.7%1.1%

There are two St. Francis schools in the Northeastern Conference, and the one from Pennsylvania is the favorite to win the conference this year. St. Francis (PA) has the most wins in conference over the last four years but has no regular season or tournament titles to show for it.

2020 Ohio Valley Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Murray St15.64.419.75.334.4%32.1%
Belmont15.64.421.06.035.6%31.9%
Austin Peay13.66.416.07.014.7%15.0%
E Illinois12.57.515.911.18.6%10.5%
E Kentucky10.29.812.612.42.5%3.3%
Jksnville St9.510.512.714.31.7%2.5%
TN State9.011.010.112.91.3%1.8%
Morehead St8.711.311.315.70.7%1.4%
SE Missouri7.412.69.017.00.3%0.6%
TN Tech6.313.77.119.90.2%0.4%
TN Martin6.313.77.314.70.1%0.3%
SIU Edward5.314.76.920.10.0%0.1%

The Murray State-Belmont rivalry continues this year as the two teams have been the class of the Ohio Valley. We expect more of the same this season, with the two teams projected as the clear favorites and with nearly identical odds to win the title, and matching win projections.

2020 Pac-12 Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Oregon13.36.714.26.822.7%20.9%
UCLA12.47.617.69.415.4%14.8%
Arizona St12.37.714.48.614.9%13.7%
Stanford12.27.816.48.613.9%12.7%
Arizona11.09.014.79.38.5%9.4%
Colorado10.79.316.011.07.9%7.7%
USC10.19.913.310.75.0%5.9%
Utah9.910.113.110.95.3%6.2%
Washington9.710.311.911.14.6%5.6%
California7.412.69.713.31.1%1.7%
Oregon St6.813.29.014.00.6%1.3%
Wash State4.315.77.017.00.1%0.2%

The Pac-12 will play a 20-game conference schedule where they play 9 other teams twice, and have two designated opponents they will play once. None of the teams in the Pac-12 made our Top 15 in the predictive ratings, but five of them range from No. 18 (Oregon) to No. 34 (Arizona), so it should be a competitive race at the top again.

2020 Patriot League Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Colgate11.84.211.84.239.4%32.9%
Boston U11.14.911.14.925.9%23.0%
Navy9.56.511.79.310.6%11.1%
Bucknell8.37.78.37.76.3%8.8%
American8.17.98.17.95.4%6.5%
Lafayette7.88.27.88.25.0%6.5%
Lehigh7.38.77.38.73.2%4.4%
Loyola-MD6.79.36.79.32.5%3.5%
Army6.19.96.210.81.8%3.0%
Holy Cross3.312.73.312.70.1%0.4%

The Patriot League will play an imbalanced schedule to avoid travel, with teams paired up into groups by geography. For example, conference favorite Colgate will play Army, Boston University, and Holy Cross four times each, and will play Bucknell/Lehigh twice each. But they will not play American, Lafayette, Loyola-Maryland, or Navy at all during the regular season.

2020 SEC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Kentucky12.15.918.18.922.8%19.6%
Tennessee11.66.418.08.018.4%17.1%
Florida11.56.517.99.116.9%15.7%
LSU10.27.816.010.09.2%9.2%
S Carolina9.88.216.19.96.7%7.2%
Alabama9.48.613.511.55.9%6.6%
Arkansas9.28.816.210.84.8%5.7%
Mississippi8.89.215.711.34.2%4.5%
Missouri8.79.312.611.44.2%4.8%
Texas A&M8.19.913.611.42.4%3.1%
Miss State7.610.412.013.01.8%2.3%
Auburn7.011.011.014.01.3%1.9%
Georgia6.811.212.312.71.1%1.7%
Vanderbilt5.112.98.716.30.3%0.5%

Kentucky, Tennessee, and Florida are expected to compete for the SEC title, while Auburn, who has been a tournament regular and frequently ranked in recent seasons under head coach Bruce Pearl, is expected to take a step back with key player losses.

2020 Southern Conference Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Furman14.33.721.06.047.3%39.8%
NC-Grnsboro13.54.519.56.532.4%29.6%
Wofford10.77.315.49.67.7%9.8%
Chattanooga9.68.414.511.53.9%6.2%
Mercer9.29.814.813.23.0%3.9%
E Tenn St9.18.911.511.53.0%4.9%
W Carolina8.69.413.913.12.3%4.1%
VA Military6.013.011.216.80.2%0.8%
Samford5.812.29.815.20.2%0.8%
Citadel4.113.99.515.50.0%0.2%

The Southern Conference has produced some pretty good mid-major teams in recent years, with Wofford as a No. 7 seed in 2019 and East Tennessee State finishing 30-4 and winning the conference tournament a year ago. This year, we expect Furman to emerge as the most likely team to take over that mantle.

2020 Southland Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Ste F Austin13.13.920.76.344.6%36.4%
Abl Christian11.05.015.67.418.2%19.7%
Nicholls St9.96.115.110.910.2%10.7%
Lamar9.47.612.412.67.1%7.8%
McNeese St9.36.715.68.46.6%6.4%
Sam Hous St8.08.09.612.43.8%5.7%
NW State7.58.510.615.42.2%2.5%
TX A&M-CC7.48.610.714.32.1%2.8%
New Orleans7.38.78.213.82.3%2.7%
Central Ark7.09.08.715.31.9%3.3%
SE Louisiana6.911.18.717.30.9%1.6%
Houston Bap4.811.27.317.70.2%0.3%
Incar Word4.311.78.317.70.1%0.2%

Stephen F. Austin stunned Duke last year in one of the biggest upsets of the season. They will have to settle for Rhode Island this year as the big non-conference upset opportunity, as they do not have any power conference teams on the schedule.

2020 Summit League Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
S Dakota St15.33.716.24.861.8%48.6%
N Dakota St10.88.211.010.010.0%12.0%
South Dakota10.09.010.811.26.3%9.0%
Oral Roberts9.16.913.511.59.8%11.4%
Neb Omaha8.57.510.110.97.2%8.4%
North Dakota8.011.08.311.71.9%4.2%
UMKC6.69.47.911.11.9%3.4%
Denver5.510.58.714.31.1%2.1%
W Illinois4.311.74.512.50.3%0.8%

Purdue-Fort Wayne is out (to the Horizon League) and Missouri-Kansas City is in (from the WAC). But South Dakota State is the heavy favorite in the Summit League this year, where we give them a 62% of winning the league regular season title and 49% chance to earn the automatic NCAA bid.

2020 Sun Belt Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Georgia St13.64.418.76.339.2%29.3%
Texas State11.36.717.79.314.5%14.2%
AR Lit Rock11.26.817.110.913.2%14.3%
TX-Arlington10.87.215.210.810.8%11.4%
Coastal Car9.78.311.18.96.6%7.2%
S Alabama9.28.816.011.04.9%6.7%
App State8.79.314.712.33.8%4.8%
LA Lafayette8.010.010.912.12.9%4.8%
GA Southern7.610.410.512.51.8%2.5%
Arkansas St7.310.712.814.21.7%2.8%
LA Monroe5.312.77.917.10.4%1.1%
Troy5.212.89.117.90.3%0.8%

Little Rock won the regular season title last year. In 2020-21, we project a bounce back season for Georgia State, who won the league in 2019 and returns most of its core players from a year ago.

2020 SWAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
TX Southern12.95.113.89.235.8%29.6%
Southern11.26.812.210.816.2%16.1%
Grambling St10.77.313.812.213.4%13.9%
Jackson St10.67.412.213.813.6%13.4%
Prairie View10.57.511.914.111.9%12.6%
Alcorn State8.79.310.016.04.7%6.1%
Alab A&M7.610.48.213.82.3%3.6%
Ark Pine Bl6.811.27.116.91.1%2.2%
Alabama St6.711.37.213.81.0%2.2%
Miss Val St4.213.84.419.60.1%0.4%

Prairie View A&M has gone 31-5 in conference play the last two years, but are projected for only fifth place this season.

2020 WAC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
N Mex State13.22.813.22.856.4%49.1%
Grd Canyon11.64.418.98.124.9%24.9%
Utah Val St9.36.713.110.96.0%8.8%
TX-Pan Am9.26.814.210.86.3%8.1%
California Baptist8.08.011.612.42.8%4.5%
Seattle7.98.113.012.03.1%4.6%
Tarleton State5.510.57.514.50.4%0.0%
Dixie State5.011.09.515.50.2%0.0%
Chicago St2.213.82.722.30.0%0.1%

Only one team besides New Mexico State has earned the automatic bid from the WAC in the last 9 years (although the Aggies are 0-7 in the NCAA Tournament during that span). New Mexico State is again back as the heavy favorite with over a 50% chance of winning the regular season conference title and a 49% chance of earning the auto-bid.

2020 WCC Basketball Projected Standings

 ConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Gonzaga14.51.522.93.180.6%69.7%
BYU10.85.218.08.010.2%13.3%
St Marys9.16.914.010.03.5%6.3%
San Fransco8.77.311.58.52.5%4.7%
Loyola Mymt7.58.511.412.60.9%1.5%
Pepperdine7.28.87.910.10.9%1.9%
Santa Clara7.09.010.810.20.7%1.3%
Pacific6.59.514.512.50.4%0.9%
San Diego5.910.16.711.30.2%0.5%
Portland2.913.16.715.30.0%0.0%

We saved the best (as in Gonzaga, who is our preseason No. 1) for last. Last season, the WCC was almost certainly going to send three teams to the tournament who would have all been top 8 seeds. BYU was a senior-heavy team, though, and is expected to drop back this season, and St. Mary’s loses star point guard Jordan Ford. Gonzaga, meanwhile, should be among the top teams in the country and has about an 80% chance of winning the league.

Get Our Latest College Basketball Projections

Again, once the season begins and actual game results come in (and as we process information about the inevitable future stream of pandemic-related schedule changes and/or game cancellations), you can find our most up to date projections on our college basketball projections page.