2019 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings

November 1, 2019 - by David Hess

No, Cassius Winston, your team is actually No. 1 in our preseason ratings (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire)

The official TeamRankings 2019 college basketball preseason rankings have arrived.

If you want to read an in depth description of how these rankings are created, check out our blog post on how we make college basketball preseason ratings. Otherwise, read on for a discussion of the ranking highlights, the full rankings and ratings for all 353 teams, and a breakdown of which factors contributed the most to each team’s rating.

Let’s start with what everybody asks first … “who’s your number one?”

Michigan State Is The Clear No. 1

Last season, a case could be made for up to six different teams to be ranked 1st to start the season. This season, there’s really no question — the Spartans easily have the best profile.

Let’s lay out the case:

  • Finished 5th in our predictive ratings last season, and made the Final Four
  • Great program history and Hall Of Fame coach, so last year wasn’t fluky
  • Only team in last year’s top 15 to return over 60% of its production* (average for the rest of the top 15 was 35%, and no other top 5 team returned even 30% of their offensive production)
  • Cassius Winston is the front runner for national Player Of The Year
  • Top 25 recruiting class

Josh Langford’s injury is the biggest concern. But he missed time last year as well, and Michigan State fared surprisingly well in his absence. They should be able to survive the regular season without him, and if he is healthy by March he’ll provide a boost come tournament time.

*NOTE: “Production” is measured by calculating each player’s individual offensive and defensive ratings from box score info, then comparing to a baseline in order to find their value over replacement. We then create a minute-weighted average of the individual player value to get the total production last season, and to find the percent of that value that’s returning.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Moving on to the rest of the top 25, let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system. It also shows the average rank, and a column indicating how far TR is from the consensus. (Positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse.) For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 55. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

TeamTRKPBTBPIAPCoachAVGTR Diff
Michigan St1121111.20.2
Kentucky22118224.52.5
Duke34105445.02.0
Florida81212665.8-2.2
Kansas410314336.22.2
Louisville53416556.31.3
Gonzaga79612878.21.2
N Carolina665139118.32.3
Virginia1251731199.5-2.5
Villanova138204101010.8-2.2
Maryland9168197811.22.2
Baylor10131810161814.24.2
Purdue167711232214.3-1.7
Texas Tech14152415131215.51.5
Ohio State11111525181616.05.0
Oregon2230227151418.3-3.7
St Marys23261234202022.5-0.5
Seton Hall18202946121323.05.0
Marquette19173018292723.34.3
VCU2123943252624.53.5
Arizona15242744211724.79.7
Florida St17143436302926.79.7
Xavier27183749192128.51.5
LSU25384431222430.75.7
Auburn28227421242332.04.0
Houston31294522363232.51.5
Wisconsin2645266554033.07.0
Illinois49351427334734.2-14.8
NC State24285117414834.810.8
Michigan32213161453036.74.7
Tennessee35198232282536.81.8
Oklahoma20252853554637.817.8
Notre Dame37422137395538.51.5
Providence52312345493639.3-12.7
Utah State30684657171939.59.5
Penn State44431924555540.0-4.0
Texas50322538554040.0-10.0
Iowa36415520555543.77.7
Miss State48536623353743.7-4.3
Missouri55391376345545.3-9.7
Iowa St4547639555545.70.7
Memphis335043134141548.215.2
Harvard80751667324552.5-27.5

Preseason Top 25 Comparison Highlights

When comparing how teams are ranked across these systems, a few points stick out.

Torvik Bucking The No. 1 Trend

Five of the six rankings have Michigan State in the top spot, but Torvik’s ratings have them at No. 2, with Florida at No. 1. ESPN’s BPI has the Gators at No. 2, just a hair behind Michigan State.

There’s a lot to like about Florida’s profile. Kerry Blackshear Jr. is expected to be one of the biggest impact transfers in the country. They have a top 10 recruiting class. They return three talented sophomores who had productive freshman seasons (Noah Locke, Andrew Nembhard and Keyontae Johnson), and who should be expected to improve in year two. Michael White is by all indications an excellent coach.

Of course, they are not without flaws. They are starting from a relatively low baseline, as they finished only 26th in our predictive ratings last season. Outside of their sophomore trio, they aren’t returning a whole lot else, and we have them at only 47% returning production. They lost their most efficient scorer and best shot blocker from last season, Kevarrius Hayes.

Humans Love Memphis & Utah State

Both human polls have Memphis and Utah State ranked in the teens, while none of the three computer rankings have them in the top 30. Why?

For Memphis, we suspect people are overrating the importance of their recruiting class. The Tigers have the top freshman class in the country, based on consensus rankings. Recently, we’ve seen the top incoming classes propel their teams to very good seasons, including No. 1 seeds and national titles.

The problem is that those top classes have been going to Duke or Kentucky teams coming off very good seasons. They were reloading, not building.

Our recruiting database covers 19 seasons. Of the top-rated classes from each of those seasons, Memphis’ previous-season predictive rating ranks 16th, meaning they are near the bottom in prior program performance for a top class. The closest comparisons based on those predictive ratings and our rating of their recruiting class are 2012-13 UCLA and 2007-08 USC. Both of those teams earned 6 seeds in the NCAA tournament, and both were upset in the first round. Coincidentally, our projected average seed for Memphis this year is … 6.

As for Utah State, they were a good non-major-conference team last season, and they return over 70% of their production, including star Sam Merrill. Plus Craig Smith is in his second year as coach after leading them to a huge improvement in year one. They’re a great story, which may be inflating their human rankings.

At the same time, the computer rankings may not adequately be accounting for how much an improvement Smith is over the previous coach, Steve Henson. We did adjust their “PROGRAM” component up a little to reflect that what happened 3 and 4 years ago may be less relevant for Utah State than for most schools, but it’s possible that adjustment should be even larger.

Correlations With Consensus

Our rankings have the highest correlation coefficient when comparing each system with the consensus, for the 38 teams listed here. Torvik’s have the lowest.

The rank order is:

  • TeamRankings (0.893)
  • Pomeroy (0.863)
  • Coaches Poll (0.839)
  • AP Poll (0.793)
  • ESPN BPI (0.636)
  • Torvik (0.622)

Last year, Pomeroy was the most correlated, at 0.926. BPI was the least correlated, at 0.725. So Torvik and BPI are a bit further away from the other systems than any one source was last season.

We’re High On …

Among the teams listed in the table above (top 25 in at least one system), we rank 6 teams at least 9 spots better than consensus:

  • Oklahoma (TR 20, average 37.8)
  • Memphis* (TR 33, average 48.2)
  • NC State (TR 24, average 34.8)
  • Arizona (TR 15, average 24.7)
  • Florida State (TR 17, average 26.7)
  • Utah State* (TR 30, average 39.5)

*Memphis and Utah are special cases here. We’re low on them compared to the human polls, but high on them compared to the other computer rankings. BPI has Memphis all the way down at No. 134, skewing the overall average.

We’re Not So Keen About …

We rank 5 teams at least 9 spots worse than consensus (again, only looking at the teams listed in the table above). We’re most pessimistic about:

  • Harvard (TR 80, average 52.5)
  • Illinois (TR 49, average 34.2)
  • Providence (TR 52, average 39.3)
  • Texas (TR 50, average 40.0)
  • Missouri ( TR 55, average 45.3)

Last season we listed 12 teams that we were high or low on compared to the consensus. Based on their final rankings for the season, we beat the consensus on 8, and the consensus beat us on the other 4.

Full 2019 College Basketball Preseason Rankings, From #1 To #353

OK, let’s get to what you’re really here for.

The table below shows our 2019 preseason ranking of all 353 college basketball teams, along with each team’s associated preseason predictive rating (e.g. 21.6 for Michigan State).

The team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” college basketball team, when playing on a neutral court.

The final eight columns of the table show the relative contribution of specific factors our preseason ratings model considers, as well as a final “market adjustment” we make for each team.

Here’s a quick explanation of those factors. For more detail, read our post on how we make college basketball preseason ratings.

  • LAST YEAR: How good a team was last season (based on final predictive rating)
  • PROGRAM: Recent historical performance, excluding last season
  • RET OFF: Returning offensive production, compared to typical
  • RET DEF: Returning defensive production, compared to typical
  • RECRUIT: Value of incoming freshman recruiting class
  • TRANSFER: Value of incoming Division I transfers (JUCO transfers ignored)
  • COACH: Recent coaching changes expected to have positive or negative impact
  • MARKET: Adjustment if our ratings-based projection for a team is far off the betting market or our rankings differ greatly from the AP poll

TR RankTeam2019-20 RatingLAST YEARPROGRAMRET OFFRET DEFRECRUITTRANSFERCOACHMARKET
1Michigan St21.615.03.90.21.81.30.00.0-0.5
2Kentucky19.512.64.1-2.9-1.64.60.70.02.0
3Duke19.316.24.2-4.2-2.05.00.00.00.0
4Kansas18.910.54.21.51.31.10.40.00.0
5Louisville18.79.83.81.33.01.30.00.0-0.5
6N Carolina18.014.44.2-2.5-3.24.20.90.00.0
7Gonzaga16.817.34.2-4.4-5.11.92.00.01.0
8Florida16.78.53.6-0.3-1.42.63.70.00.0
9Maryland16.49.02.80.03.31.40.00.00.0
10Baylor15.47.23.30.02.10.11.70.01.0
11Ohio State15.27.42.30.62.21.60.50.00.5
12Virginia15.115.44.2-3.6-1.50.70.00.00.0
13Villanova14.87.84.2-1.41.42.80.00.00.0
14Texas Tech14.813.53.0-1.2-5.80.94.40.00.0
15Arizona14.43.93.40.8-0.13.34.00.0-1.0
16Purdue14.112.74.2-3.01.70.01.10.0-2.5
17Florida St13.710.33.1-1.6-0.80.90.90.01.0
18Seton Hall13.15.12.70.54.30.00.40.00.0
19Marquette12.98.02.20.40.90.21.20.00.0
20Oklahoma12.88.42.91.0-0.60.41.70.0-1.0
21VCU12.66.61.82.13.30.30.00.0-1.5
22Oregon12.57.83.2-0.7-2.72.11.80.01.0
23St Marys12.57.02.90.72.70.02.70.0-3.5
24NC State12.48.21.70.21.70.61.50.0-1.5
25LSU12.29.31.2-0.91.11.60.00.00.0
26Wisconsin12.110.32.7-1.40.80.00.10.0-0.5
27Xavier11.94.53.4-0.12.20.32.10.0-0.5
28Auburn11.912.01.5-2.0-0.10.50.00.00.0
29Creighton11.86.23.1-0.11.50.02.60.0-1.5
30Utah State11.86.92.00.92.00.00.00.00.0
31Houston11.811.02.6-2.2-1.20.01.60.00.0
32Michigan11.712.83.4-0.70.21.00.1-5.00.0
33Memphis11.65.51.0-1.5-3.26.60.20.03.0
34Colorado11.65.01.60.94.70.00.00.0-0.5
35Tennessee11.612.62.4-3.0-1.10.70.00.00.0
36Iowa11.57.62.20.50.90.50.20.0-0.5
37Notre Dame11.53.33.00.93.80.50.00.00.0
38Indiana11.47.32.8-1.50.21.31.40.00.0
39Cincinnati11.48.03.60.00.10.02.6-3.00.0
40Alabama11.44.81.90.00.00.90.73.00.0
41BYU11.32.91.91.11.70.03.70.00.0
42Washington11.26.41.6-1.0-3.84.60.30.03.0
43Butler11.24.43.3-0.22.60.03.60.0-2.5
44Penn State11.16.71.61.02.20.00.60.0-1.0
45Iowa State11.110.42.9-1.2-1.00.10.90.0-1.0
46Oklahoma St10.93.62.51.83.40.31.40.0-2.0
47Dayton10.85.01.60.61.90.01.70.00.0
48Miss State10.69.01.7-1.71.20.30.10.00.0
49Illinois10.54.01.31.13.40.70.00.00.0
50Texas10.48.72.5-1.9-0.51.60.00.00.0
51USC10.43.82.40.2-1.02.22.80.00.0
52Providence10.33.72.10.82.20.70.60.00.0
53Texas A&M10.12.92.81.01.80.00.01.50.0
54Georgetown10.12.81.7-0.61.10.05.00.00.0
55Missouri10.03.91.10.01.50.32.80.00.5
56W Kentucky10.01.30.41.51.30.55.00.00.0
57Rutgers9.84.2-0.20.32.00.03.60.00.0
58Davidson9.72.71.61.34.20.00.00.00.0
59E Tenn St9.53.61.11.42.20.01.30.00.0
60Arkansas9.56.12.50.01.20.02.20.5-3.0
61N Mex State9.55.71.3-0.22.10.00.60.00.0
62Kansas St9.48.72.6-0.8-1.00.00.00.00.0
63TX Christian9.37.22.3-0.3-1.00.30.90.00.0
64Syracuse9.37.22.6-0.2-0.70.40.00.00.0
65UCLA9.13.02.7-1.30.80.90.03.00.0
66Georgia9.11.71.91.1-1.13.32.10.00.0
67Wichita St9.13.93.8-0.10.90.00.60.00.0
68Mississippi8.66.61.5-0.20.80.00.00.00.0
69Clemson8.67.42.7-1.6-2.70.02.80.00.0
70Nebraska8.58.11.6-1.2-5.90.05.01.00.0
71Miami (FL)8.34.63.00.3-0.90.60.70.00.0
72Belmont8.25.91.1-1.91.40.01.70.00.0
73Pittsburgh8.13.51.31.00.80.01.50.00.0
74Minnesota8.06.51.2-0.4-1.20.11.70.00.0
75Oregon St7.93.70.70.32.60.00.60.00.0
76GA Tech7.82.91.50.61.40.21.20.00.0
77Arizona St7.55.31.5-0.10.40.40.00.00.0
78W Virginia7.12.84.2-0.51.00.70.00.0-1.0
79Temple7.04.01.2-1.12.30.00.70.00.0
80Harvard6.91.30.41.04.10.20.00.00.0
81Rhode Island6.90.62.11.42.10.10.40.00.0
82S Carolina6.73.92.5-0.6-0.40.11.10.00.0
83VA Tech6.611.42.4-3.2-3.30.40.5-2.00.5
84Connecticut6.62.81.50.11.40.80.00.00.0
85Richmond6.5-2.40.71.62.50.04.10.00.0
86St Johns6.33.70.7-0.1-1.40.03.40.00.0
87S Florida6.12.6-1.51.13.90.00.00.00.0
88Boise State6.01.11.61.41.50.00.30.00.0
89Vermont5.92.91.10.61.30.00.00.00.0
90San Diego St5.62.22.0-0.7-0.40.02.50.00.0
91S Methodist5.62.23.0-1.31.50.00.10.00.0
92Wake Forest5.3-0.91.70.82.00.51.40.00.0
93Toledo5.04.50.6-1.41.30.00.00.00.0
94Tulsa4.81.61.00.60.10.01.60.00.0
95Wash State4.8-2.7-0.3-0.80.70.02.95.00.0
96New Mexico4.7-1.80.90.71.10.03.80.00.0
97Northwestern4.54.62.1-1.1-1.60.40.00.00.0
98Furman4.54.60.7-2.01.30.00.00.00.0
99Liberty4.53.3-1.10.22.10.00.00.00.0
100Fresno St4.44.41.3-1.8-0.20.00.70.00.0
101Vanderbilt4.40.62.51.0-0.30.90.7-1.00.0
102Boston Col4.22.00.4-0.31.30.10.80.00.0
103Nevada4.29.32.0-2.0-5.70.21.0-1.00.5
104Central FL4.17.30.8-2.0-4.20.02.10.00.0
105Wright State3.91.40.31.3-0.20.01.20.00.0
106GA Southern3.83.1-0.2-1.32.10.00.20.00.0
107NC-Grnsboro3.83.00.3-1.01.50.00.00.00.0
108Utah3.72.52.5-0.9-0.70.30.00.00.0
109LA Tech3.60.20.60.51.40.00.90.00.0
110Duquesne3.5-1.2-0.40.61.70.02.70.00.0
111Stanford3.32.61.3-0.8-0.20.40.00.00.0
112Ball State3.21.6-0.10.30.90.00.50.00.0
113St Bonavent3.11.11.41.0-1.30.00.80.00.0
114UNLV3.0-0.50.5-0.2-1.10.14.20.00.0
115N Iowa2.9-1.50.90.92.50.10.00.00.0
116S Alabama2.9-3.2-1.01.11.00.05.00.00.0
117Loyola-Chi2.91.61.00.3-0.10.00.10.00.0
118Missouri St2.9-1.60.10.6-1.00.04.70.00.0
119Samford2.80.0-1.00.41.60.01.80.00.0
120DePaul2.82.10.4-1.91.10.40.80.00.0
121Akron2.72.20.30.0-0.10.00.20.00.0
122U Penn2.70.9-0.11.90.00.00.00.00.0
123Buffalo2.69.70.9-3.1-2.30.02.5-5.00.0
124San Fransco2.64.60.1-0.70.60.00.0-2.00.0
125Murray St2.65.60.5-2.4-1.10.00.00.00.0
126Wofford2.58.90.0-3.3-0.10.00.0-3.00.0
127Bowling Grn2.52.0-1.10.41.20.00.00.00.0
128Yale2.53.50.7-1.2-0.50.00.00.00.0
129Northeastrn2.42.10.7-0.6-0.20.00.50.00.0
130Colgate2.40.8-1.10.81.70.00.30.00.0
131Pepperdine2.4-0.4-1.00.82.60.00.40.00.0
132Col Charlestn2.41.00.80.10.50.00.00.00.0
133California2.3-3.91.20.10.50.13.31.00.0
134TX-Arlington2.2-0.51.30.70.70.00.00.00.0
135N Illinois2.00.9-0.7-0.11.10.00.70.00.0
136Iona1.6-3.20.70.50.80.01.80.01.0
137Middle Tenn1.6-4.81.72.1-0.10.02.70.00.0
138Drake1.61.1-0.7-1.80.90.02.10.00.0
139Hofstra1.62.80.4-2.81.00.00.20.00.0
140TX-San Ant1.5-0.6-1.62.31.00.00.40.00.0
141Kent State1.40.1-0.2-1.41.30.01.60.00.0
142Grand Canyon1.32.00.40.3-2.00.00.60.00.0
143Geo Mason1.0-0.7-0.30.21.80.00.00.00.0
144UAB1.0-0.50.6-0.30.40.00.70.00.0
145UC Irvine0.93.10.7-0.8-2.10.00.00.00.0
146Indiana St0.8-2.80.02.61.00.00.00.00.0
147Radford0.60.5-0.9-0.40.50.00.90.00.0
148Bucknell0.50.10.9-1.71.20.00.00.00.0
149Central Mich0.50.9-0.3-1.41.30.00.00.00.0
150Texas State0.31.2-0.60.9-1.20.00.00.00.0
151UCSB0.3-1.3-0.3-0.20.70.01.50.00.0
152Santa Clara0.3-2.6-0.81.91.40.00.40.00.0
153IL-Chicago0.3-2.7-1.41.03.40.00.00.00.0
154Miami (OH)0.2-0.5-1.11.30.50.00.00.00.0
155Colorado St0.1-1.50.2-0.41.70.00.20.00.0
156Seattle0.1-1.8-1.30.52.70.00.00.00.0
157San Diego0.13.1-0.9-1.0-2.30.01.20.00.0
158Northern Kentucky-0.22.40.2-0.81.00.00.0-3.00.0
159Towson-0.2-6.10.41.62.10.01.80.00.0
160Old Dominion-0.21.51.2-1.8-1.20.00.00.00.0
161Mercer-0.2-2.1-0.11.50.10.00.40.00.0
162Princeton-0.2-2.41.10.60.40.00.00.00.0
163North Dakota State-0.3-3.00.10.52.10.00.00.00.0
164Bradley-0.3-1.0-0.91.40.10.00.00.00.0
165N Florida-0.4-2.3-1.20.61.70.00.80.00.0
166Evansville-0.5-3.30.6-0.10.60.01.70.00.0
167South Dakota-0.6-4.10.31.31.40.00.50.00.0
168Saint Louis-0.71.9-0.7-0.6-1.40.10.00.00.0
169Columbia-0.8-3.4-0.31.21.50.00.20.00.0
170App State-0.8-2.0-1.0-1.01.70.00.61.00.0
171Valparaiso-0.9-3.11.20.5-1.80.02.40.00.0
172TX El Paso-0.9-6.1-0.81.3-0.30.05.00.00.0
173Oakland-1.0-2.10.8-0.20.50.00.00.00.0
174North Texas-1.0-0.3-1.30.2-1.10.01.60.00.0
175Albany-1.0-6.20.41.91.10.01.70.00.0
176LA Lafayette-1.0-1.31.1-1.6-1.60.02.40.00.0
177Illinois St-1.0-2.51.0-0.2-2.50.03.10.00.0
178Stony Brook-1.1-1.3-0.10.0-0.80.01.10.00.0
179WI-Grn Bay-1.2-1.8-0.4-0.51.50.00.00.00.0
180Nebraska Omaha-1.2-1.5-0.6-0.81.70.00.00.00.0
181Coastal Car-1.3-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.10.00.00.00.0
182Rider-1.3-3.2-0.30.80.60.00.90.00.0
183Brown-1.4-0.2-1.40.10.20.00.00.00.0
184Weber State-1.4-2.90.30.20.20.00.70.00.0
185Geo Wshgtn-1.4-5.80.71.40.30.00.02.00.0
186Marshall-1.5-1.30.5-1.00.30.00.00.00.0
187Montana-1.51.10.4-1.2-1.90.00.00.00.0
188Tulane-1.6-5.8-0.41.2-2.50.05.01.00.0
189Dartmouth-1.6-3.8-1.61.61.90.00.20.00.0
190Hawaii-1.7-2.00.00.00.30.00.00.00.0
191Wm & Mary-1.7-3.60.71.0-0.40.00.60.00.0
192Loyola Mymt-1.80.6-0.7-0.2-1.60.00.00.00.0
193Gard-Webb-1.9-1.0-1.0-1.21.30.00.00.00.0
194Austin Peay-2.10.5-1.1-0.6-2.30.01.30.00.0
195Georgia St-2.11.50.3-0.7-1.30.01.1-3.00.0
196Air Force-2.1-4.5-0.91.12.20.00.00.00.0
197California Baptist-2.2-3.5-2.70.61.00.02.40.00.0
198LA Monroe-2.20.6-0.6-2.0-0.30.00.00.00.0
199Lipscomb-2.36.0-0.4-2.4-2.50.00.0-3.00.0
200Detroit-2.3-4.6-1.62.0-2.60.04.50.00.0
201Fla Atlantic-2.3-1.5-1.5-0.2-0.70.01.60.00.0
202S Illinois-2.40.10.3-0.1-2.50.00.7-1.00.0
203St Josephs-2.5-1.71.0-0.8-1.50.02.4-2.00.0
204Oral Roberts-2.5-6.4-0.71.82.00.00.80.00.0
205Lehigh-2.6-1.5-0.2-0.8-0.10.00.00.00.0
206CS Fullerton-2.8-2.9-0.9-0.7-0.60.02.20.00.0
207Florida Intl-2.8-3.6-1.20.50.20.01.20.00.0
208Boston U-2.8-4.2-0.80.71.50.00.00.00.0
209E Michigan-2.9-1.10.2-0.6-1.50.00.10.00.0
210Sam Hous St-2.9-1.7-0.8-0.1-0.40.00.10.00.0
211AR Lit Rock-3.0-3.1-0.3-0.70.90.00.20.00.0
212La Salle-3.0-3.9-0.31.10.00.00.00.00.0
213New Jersey Tech-3.1-2.3-1.20.9-0.50.00.00.00.0
214Cal St Nrdge-3.1-4.9-1.81.52.10.00.00.00.0
215S Dakota St-3.23.41.0-3.4-2.40.00.3-2.00.0
216American-3.2-3.0-2.31.10.70.00.30.00.0
217N Colorado-3.2-1.9-1.0-2.41.10.00.90.00.0
218E Carolina-3.3-5.0-0.93.7-1.70.00.50.00.0
219Ohio-3.4-2.30.30.9-2.40.00.10.00.0
220CS Bakersfld-3.4-3.60.2-0.6-0.80.01.40.00.0
221W Carolina-3.5-6.2-1.91.11.80.01.70.00.0
222Rice-3.6-4.8-1.11.21.10.00.00.00.0
223Hampton-3.6-2.3-1.70.6-1.00.00.70.00.0
224UMKC-3.7-4.8-1.30.40.40.01.60.00.0
225E Washingtn-3.7-4.4-0.20.70.20.00.00.00.0
226IUPUI-3.8-2.2-1.0-0.5-1.50.03.4-2.00.0
227IPFW-3.8-1.90.3-2.70.30.00.20.00.0
228S Mississippi-3.90.8-1.9-0.3-2.60.00.00.00.0
229Loyola-MD-4.0-5.8-1.71.52.00.00.00.00.0
230Delaware-4.1-5.2-1.5-0.9-0.80.04.40.00.0
231Pacific-4.1-2.9-0.5-0.1-1.30.00.80.00.0
232U Mass-4.2-3.4-0.1-0.4-1.10.30.50.00.0
233Winthrop-4.3-2.40.2-1.7-0.40.00.00.00.0
234Youngs St-4.4-5.5-2.11.01.70.00.50.00.0
235James Mad-4.4-5.9-0.10.31.40.00.00.00.0
236Jksnville St-4.40.9-0.5-1.2-3.90.00.30.00.0
237TX-Pan Am-4.4-2.4-2.31.4-1.20.00.00.00.0
238Charl South-4.5-2.0-1.9-0.90.30.00.00.00.0
239Army-4.6-4.9-1.11.30.20.00.00.00.0
240Siena-4.6-5.3-0.40.6-0.70.01.30.00.0
241Massachusetts Lowell-4.6-5.1-2.01.11.30.00.00.00.0
242Chattanooga-4.6-5.4-0.10.2-0.30.01.00.00.0
243Fla Gulf Cst-4.7-3.70.5-0.3-1.20.00.00.00.0
244Utah Val St-4.81.5-0.1-2.1-2.90.01.8-3.00.0
245WI-Milwkee-4.8-6.5-0.40.50.70.00.90.00.0
246Portland St-5.0-6.0-0.8-0.4-0.90.03.00.00.0
247Monmouth-5.1-7.10.91.00.10.00.00.00.0
248Fordham-5.2-4.7-0.7-0.20.40.00.00.00.0
249W Michigan-5.2-4.8-0.4-0.20.10.00.00.00.0
250LIU-Brooklyn-5.3-5.7-1.61.10.90.00.00.00.0
251McNeese St-5.3-9.0-2.51.80.50.04.00.00.0
252Sacred Hrt-5.4-4.8-2.1-0.51.90.00.00.00.0
253UC Davis-5.5-4.5-0.40.9-1.40.00.00.00.0
254St Fran (PA)-5.5-5.6-1.50.11.40.00.00.00.0
255Maryland BC-5.6-4.5-1.1-0.10.00.00.10.00.0
256Morehead St-5.6-5.4-0.6-0.2-0.60.01.10.00.0
257Troy-5.7-4.2-0.5-0.9-1.10.00.01.00.0
258TN Martin-5.7-7.6-1.11.30.30.01.50.00.0
259North Dakota-5.7-5.6-0.6-0.30.80.00.00.00.0
260Drexel-5.7-5.2-1.1-1.01.70.00.00.00.0
261F Dickinson-5.8-3.9-1.7-0.80.70.00.00.00.0
262TX Southern-5.8-3.1-0.7-0.9-2.00.00.80.00.0
263N Arizona-5.8-6.8-3.01.62.00.00.30.00.0
264Fairfield-5.9-6.7-0.70.5-0.80.00.71.00.0
265Portland-5.9-8.1-1.11.2-0.10.02.20.00.0
266Houston Bap-6.1-6.2-2.01.8-0.30.00.60.00.0
267Ste F Austin-6.1-6.90.71.1-1.30.00.30.00.0
268UC Riverside-6.2-7.2-1.60.80.40.01.40.00.0
269S Utah-6.2-5.6-2.50.50.80.00.60.00.0
270SE Missouri-6.2-7.6-1.81.3-0.60.02.40.00.0
271Lg Beach St-6.3-3.3-0.2-0.6-2.50.00.30.00.0
272NC-Wilmgton-6.4-5.80.8-0.1-2.50.01.30.00.0
273Arkansas St-6.5-4.7-0.7-2.0-0.50.01.40.00.0
274TN State-6.5-7.4-0.31.0-2.20.02.30.00.0
275E Kentucky-6.6-4.6-1.3-1.40.40.00.20.00.0
276Charlotte-6.6-6.5-1.3-0.5-0.30.02.00.00.0
277Navy-6.6-6.6-0.71.5-0.80.00.00.00.0
278Sac State-6.7-5.4-1.8-0.61.00.00.10.00.0
279New Orleans-6.9-5.7-1.4-0.30.40.00.30.00.0
280Prairie View-6.9-4.0-2.40.7-1.30.00.00.00.0
281Lafayette-7.0-7.3-2.41.01.70.00.00.00.0
282Montana St-7.0-5.1-1.20.5-0.20.00.0-1.00.0
283Canisius-7.1-6.0-0.2-0.3-0.60.00.00.00.0
284Mt St Marys-7.1-9.1-1.21.51.60.00.00.00.0
285Cornell-7.2-4.1-1.5-0.1-1.50.00.00.00.0
286Cleveland St-7.3-6.0-1.6-0.90.10.01.10.00.0
287W Illinois-7.3-6.6-1.71.5-0.50.00.00.00.0
288Central Ark-7.4-7.2-1.90.70.70.00.30.00.0
289Quinnipiac-7.4-4.5-1.8-1.2-0.30.00.40.00.0
290Nicholls St-7.5-7.5-1.9-0.90.20.02.60.00.0
291E Illinois-7.5-7.8-1.20.90.50.00.00.00.0
292Longwood-7.5-5.5-3.21.3-0.10.00.00.00.0
293Manhattan-7.6-8.5-1.31.60.60.00.00.00.0
294TN Tech-7.6-9.5-0.82.8-1.30.00.21.00.0
295Holy Cross-7.7-4.3-1.4-0.5-1.40.00.00.00.0
296Jacksonville-7.7-5.0-1.80.0-1.00.00.10.00.0
297Lamar-7.7-2.5-1.4-1.3-2.60.00.10.00.0
298Abilene Christian-7.8-1.7-2.0-1.8-2.40.00.10.00.0
299Denver-7.8-7.7-0.60.9-0.70.00.20.00.0
300TX A&M-CC-8.0-6.0-0.90.4-1.40.00.00.00.0
301Campbell-8.1-2.4-1.5-3.9-0.30.00.00.00.0
302Rob Morris-8.1-5.7-1.60.0-0.80.00.00.00.0
303Wyoming-8.2-7.80.3-0.4-0.40.00.00.00.0
304Morgan St-8.3-10.3-2.61.60.10.00.82.00.0
305VA Military-8.7-7.0-2.6-1.72.60.00.00.00.0
306Cal Poly-8.7-9.3-1.5-0.3-0.30.02.70.00.0
307North Alabama-8.8-6.9-2.70.9-0.10.00.00.00.0
308Kennesaw St-8.8-10.6-1.62.8-0.40.00.01.00.0
309St Fran (NY)-8.8-6.4-2.60.1-0.50.00.60.00.0
310Hartford-8.9-2.7-2.2-2.0-4.60.02.60.00.0
311Merrimack-8.9-7.0-1.90.00.00.00.00.00.0
312High Point-9.1-3.8-0.8-2.4-2.10.00.00.00.0
313Idaho-9.2-12.2-0.41.00.30.01.11.00.0
314Elon-9.2-8.0-0.2-1.4-0.80.01.10.00.0
315SE Louisiana-9.4-4.7-1.4-1.3-2.00.00.00.00.0
316S Car State-9.4-10.3-2.91.80.10.01.90.00.0
317St Peters-9.5-8.0-0.3-0.4-1.90.01.10.00.0
318Idaho State-9.8-8.3-1.9-0.30.70.00.00.00.0
319Grambling St-9.8-6.2-2.81.2-2.00.00.00.00.0
320Niagara-9.9-7.7-1.40.4-1.70.00.50.00.0
321Marist-10.0-5.9-2.3-1.1-2.20.01.50.00.0
322Jackson St-10.2-9.2-2.42.1-1.40.00.70.00.0
323Beth-Cook-10.2-7.6-2.71.6-1.50.00.00.00.0
324Citadel-10.3-4.7-2.5-1.8-2.20.00.90.00.0
325Maine-10.4-9.6-3.01.8-0.70.01.10.00.0
326Bryant-10.5-9.7-2.91.50.50.00.10.00.0
327NC-Asheville-10.6-12.70.31.3-2.20.02.70.00.0
328Norfolk St-10.7-5.1-1.7-0.3-3.70.00.20.00.0
329NC Central-10.8-6.5-1.6-0.7-2.00.00.00.00.0
330SIU Edward-10.8-9.5-2.20.9-0.10.00.20.00.0
331Stetson-11.1-9.8-2.30.9-1.00.00.11.00.0
332Alabama St-11.2-9.5-3.01.3-0.50.00.60.00.0
333Binghamton-11.2-9.1-2.21.7-2.30.00.60.00.0
334Howard-11.3-7.6-3.0-0.9-0.80.00.01.00.0
335Presbyterian-11.5-2.3-3.3-2.5-0.40.00.0-3.00.0
336Wagner-11.6-7.9-0.7-0.6-2.90.00.60.00.0
337N Hampshire-11.6-12.0-1.01.8-0.50.00.00.00.0
338NC A&T-11.9-7.4-3.30.6-2.50.00.80.00.0
339San Jose St-12.0-11.9-1.20.80.30.00.00.00.0
340South Carolina Upstate-13.1-10.0-2.40.1-0.70.00.00.00.0
341Alcorn State-13.1-12.6-2.71.00.30.00.90.00.0
342Ark Pine Bl-13.1-8.8-3.4-0.8-0.50.00.30.00.0
343Southern-13.2-10.3-2.10.9-2.10.00.30.00.0
344Central Conn-13.4-8.7-3.3-0.3-1.10.00.00.00.0
345Florida A&M-13.8-8.2-3.4-1.1-1.10.00.00.00.0
346Coppin State-14.0-11.7-3.42.3-2.50.01.30.00.0
347Incarnate Word-14.2-11.8-2.4-0.20.20.00.00.00.0
348NW State-15.2-10.9-3.10.8-2.00.00.00.00.0
349Alab A&M-15.8-11.9-3.40.6-1.40.00.40.00.0
350Miss Val St-16.5-13.8-3.41.8-2.10.00.01.00.0
351Chicago St-17.6-16.2-3.41.50.60.00.00.00.0
352Maryland ES-17.9-15.2-3.21.2-0.60.00.00.00.0
353Delaware St-20.0-16.8-3.41.3-1.80.00.70.00.0

What Do We Use These For?

These preseason ratings drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every morning throughout the season.

Ratings Accuracy

It’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy, Dan Hanner and Bart Torvik have compared our preseason ratings and/or projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. Our finish has been consistently good, though also consistently a bit behind Dan Hanner’s bottom-up, player-based projections (which he unfortunately stopped producing after the 2017-18 season).

  • 2018-19: 4th of 18 (behind Torvik, Gasaway, Pomeroy*)
  • 2017-18: 2nd of 7 (behind Hanner)
  • 2016-17: 4th of 7 (behind Torvik, Hanner, Gasaway)
  • 2015-16: 2nd of 7 (behind Hanner)
  • 2014-15: 2nd of 4 (behind Hanner)
  • 2013-14: 2nd of 4 (behind Hanner)
  • 2012-13: 1st of 3

*worth noting that this analysis used the final Pomeroy ratings as the “true” result, so Pomeroy may have a bit of an advantage here

(Links go to the comparison blog posts or Google Doc data files from Ken/Dan/Bart.)

Taking several years of data into account, and placing some emphasis on consistency, we feel we probably have the second best preseason computer ratings out of those tested, behind Dan Hanner’s (now defunct) player lineup based projections, but ahead of Ken Pomeroy, and ESPN’s BPI.

In terms of human ratings, John Gasaway leads the pack, and has performed only slightly worse than our computer ratings.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems. We expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 353 teams.

Some Final Advice On Interpreting Preseason College Basketball Rankings

Some people get quite worked up about preseason college basketball rankings — especially when our approach seems to think their favorite team is going to be worse than the prevailing consensus.

That’s to be expected. No one else ranks teams exactly like we do, and our approach often discounts the impact of things that many media analysts and basketball “experts” believe to be important.

We also have a very specific goal for our preseason college basketball team ratings, which relates to predicting the margins of victory of future college basketball games. That goal doesn’t line up exactly with the motivations of many other rankings makers.

Just keep in mind that predicting how 353 different college basketball teams are each going to do this season, before any of them have played a regular season game, is no easy task. No system is perfect, including ours. It has strengths and weaknesses. We expect to get some teams slightly wrong, and some other teams very wrong, for a variety of reasons.

But in the longer term, our approach has done very well when measured by the yardstick that means the most to us: the overall accuracy, across the entire universe of 353 college basketball teams, of projecting team performance levels at the end of the upcoming season.

Look at Ratings, Not Just Rankings

Finally, please remember to look at team ratings and not just rankings, because ratings tell a much more precise story.

For example, in 2019, 1.2 ratings points separate No. 6 North Carolina from No. 7 Gonzaga. Meanwhile, in the other direction, No. 2 Kentucky is only 1.3 points higher than No. 6 North Carolina.

In other words, North Carolina is roughly as close to being No. 2 (4 spots higher) as they are to being No. 7 (only one spot lower).

So don’t overreact to a team’s ranking number. Look at the rating as well, and you’ll be able to tell which generally expected performance tier a team is in.

Before You Go …

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these 2019 college basketball preseason rankings. There’s a ton to see: