2018 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings

November 5, 2018 - by David Hess

2018 College Basketball Preseason Rankings and Ratings

Our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings were posted to the site on this weekend. Here’s a brief discussion of those rankings, as well as the full rankings and ratings for all 353 teams.

Who Is #1?

Like last season, a case can be made for a few different teams:

  • Duke has by far the highest-rated recruiting class of all time (more on this below), and returns roughly the same percent of its production it did last season (when it finished #2 in our ratings)
  • Kansas has one of the highest-rated transfers in our database in Dedric Lawson, returns Udoka Azubuike to pair with Lawson and form perhaps the best frontcourt in the country, returns half of its defensive production, and has the 5th-rated recruiting class this year,
  • North Carolina is is the second-highest-rated team from last season (after Virginia) that returns at least 60% of its production, plus has the 3rd-rated recruiting class this year
  • Virginia is the highest-rated team from last season that returns at least 60% of its production
  • Nevada returns nearly 70% of its production from a team that made a Final Four run, plus has the third-rated incoming transfer class in our database
  • Tennessee is the highest-rated team from last season that returns at least 90% of its production

For our preseason projections, we rate the first four teams listed above as our top four teams. (Nevada is #7 and Tennessee is #8.) But there’s only a 0.9-point gap between #1 Duke and #4 Virginia — meaning we’d favor Duke over Virginia on a neutral court by less than a point. It’s close to a 4-way toss up at the top.

Duke’s Great Recruiting Class

We’re getting a little déjà vu with the Blue Devils. Last fall, Duke was our preseason #1 despite returning less than 20% of its production. That was mostly due to a phenomenal recruiting class, which at the time was the second-rated class in our database.

Well, this season Duke returns almost exactly the same percent of its production as last season (19% this year vs 18% last year), and has an even better recruiting class — the best one we’ve ever seen. Duke’s class includes the #1, #2, #4, and #13 ranked recruits according to the final RSCI consensus rankings.

Some of you may have seen preseason highlights of Duke’s incoming freshman Zion Williamson making highlight reel dunks and showing off great handles and a smooth jumper for a big man. He’s sparking articles with titles like There Has Never Been A Basketball Player Like Duke’s Zion Williamson. Aaaaand … he’s only the Blue Devils’ third-highest-rated recruit.

Let’s refresh the data we showed last season, highlighting the results of the other top recruiting classes in our database. Again, while not without hiccups, the overall performance has been very good. (If you are comparing this data to last season, please note that we made slight updates to our recruit ranking point-value scale, so the order of a couple teams has shifted.)

#1: 2018-19 Duke … ???
#2: 2013-14 Kentucky … only an 8 seed, but lost in the title game
#3: 2011-12 Kentucky … 38-2, national champs
#4: 2017-18 Duke … #2 seed, lost in overtime in the regional final to #1 seed Kansas
#5: 2013-14 Kansas … upset by Stanford in the second round … but they were missing Joel Embiid to injury, and obviously wouldn’t have been the #4 class without him
#6: 2014-15 Duke … 35-4, national champs
#7: 2016-17 Duke … upset in second round … 3 of the 4 main freshman missed several games, disappointing season overall, but still a #2 seed
#8: 2006-07 Ohio State … 35-4, lost in title game to Florida, which was one of the greatest teams in recent history
#9: 2005-06 Duke … 32-4, #1 seed, upset in Sweet 6
#10: 2009-10 Kentucky … 35-2, #1 seed, lost in Elite 8

If Duke had actually returned a core of solid rotation players from last season, and added this class, they’d be the clear title favorite. As it stands, they’re still our #1, but by just a fraction of a point.

The Year Of The Transfer

Transfers are becoming more common every year, and it seems like this could be their breakout season. Half of our preseason top ten teams are projected to benefit heavily from incoming transfers this season.

When we make our projections, we come up with a point value for each transfer. In the seven seasons since we started calculating transfer values for preseason projections, we’ve projected six transfers to be worth at least 4 points. Three of them are playing for teams in the top 10 of our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings:

4.4 pts: Joe Cremo (to 2018-19 Villanova, from Albany)
4.4 pts: Arsalan Kazemi (to 2013-14 Oregon, from Rice)
4.4 pts: Damion Lee (to 2015-16 Louisville, from Drexel)
4.4 pts: Trey Porter (to 2018-19 Nevada, from James Madison)
4.2 pts: Dedric Lawson (to 2018-19 Kansas, from Memphis)
4.1 pts: Stanton Kidd (to 2014-15 Colorado State, from NC Central)

If we expand the window to look at transfers projected to be worth 3 or more points, there are 27 players over the last seven years. Twelve (12) of them are joining teams this season. That includes two more players helping teams in our 2018 preseason top ten:

3.8 pts: Brandon Clarke (to 2018-19 Gonzaga, from San Jose State)
3.2 pts: Reid Travis (to 2018-19 Kentucky, from Stanford)

Altogether, that means 5 of our 27 highest-rated transfers from the last seven years — nearly 20% of the biggest impact transfers in recent seasons — are joining teams in this season’s top 10. If the cards fall just right, we could see a Final Four where every team starts a major-impact transfer.

2018 College Basketball Preseason Rankings Method

To create our preseason rankings, we first establish a baseline prediction for a team, given its power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of its recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season. The result is our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings. For a more complete description, check out our blog post from five years ago.

As always, we’ve refit the model during the offseason, in order to take into account another year of data.

What Do We Use Them For?

The resulting ratings drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, ESPN’s BPI, the AP poll, and the ESPN Coaches poll. And at the end of the post you’ll see our full rankings and ratings for all 353 Division I teams.

Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every morning throughout the season.

Ratings Accuracy

Before we get to the 2018 college basketball preseason rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner have compared our preseason ratings and/or projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. Our finish has been consistently good, though also consistently a bit behind Dan Hanner’s bottom-up, player-based projections. (Links below go to the comparison blog posts from Ken and Dan.)

Taking a few years of data into account, we feel we probably have the second best preseason ratings, behind Dan Hanner’s player lineup based projections, but ahead of Ken Pomeroy, ESPN, and human rankings.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems. We expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 353 teams.

[Side note: Unfortunately, Dan Hanner has decided to retire from the preseason ratings game. In past seasons you could enjoy his preseason rankings and player projections at Sports Illustrated, but that is no longer the case.]

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system. It also shows the average rank, and a column indicating how far TR is from the consensus. (Positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse.) For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 55. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

TeamTRKPBTBPIAPCoachesAVGTR Diff
Kansas2121111.3-0.7
Virginia4413553.7-0.3
Duke12311434.03.0
N Carolina3362874.81.8
Kentucky5759225.00.0
Gonzaga9944345.5-3.5
Villanova65136987.81.8
Tennessee811125668.00.0
Nevada76915798.81.8
Michigan St1013816101011.21.2
W Virginia1110713131311.20.2
Syracuse128167161412.20.2
Auburn15171420111214.8-0.2
Kansas St20121817121115.0-5.0
Florida St18152221171518.00.0
Florida17191514292820.33.3
Clemson16143218222320.84.8
VA Tech31222119151720.8-10.2
Miss State24231728181921.5-2.5
Oregon23271139141621.7-1.3
Michigan13242042191822.79.7
Wisconsin2120248324224.53.5
Marquette25292910273025.00.0
Purdue14184236242226.012.0
Miami (FL)19211034404728.59.5
TX Christian41343143202131.7-9.3
Texas Tech22262735445534.812.8
Texas39163530454434.8-4.2
Alabama51512326353336.5-14.5
Nebraska35384055302537.22.2
Iowa State26253333555537.811.8
Iowa28353825555539.311.3
Houston33454822555543.010.0
Arizona St36532548465543.87.8
Baylor38407712554644.76.7
Washington54465367252444.8-9.2
Northwestern59574524555549.2-9.8
LSU61507465232649.8-11.2
Seton Hall56541968555551.2-4.8
UCLA48478397212052.74.7
W Kentucky52795923555553.81.8

Preseason Top 25 Comparison Highlights

A few points stick out:

  • Three different teams are ranked #1: Kansas (Pomeroy, BPI, AP, Coaches), Duke (TeamRankings), and Virginia (Torvik).
  • After Kansas at #1, there’s not much consensus. Kansas is ranked 1st or 2nd by every system. Every other team is ranked 5th or worse in by least one system.
  • TeamRankings is the only ranking with Duke at #1. BPI, on the other hand, doesn’t even see Duke as a Top 10 team.
  • The computers all rank North Carolina higher than the humans. The Tarheels seem similar to Wichita State last season, with a pretty high floor, but perhaps not a national title ceiling. Because most analytical projections are designed to forecast the average rating they expect a team to have if the season is played out millions of times, that high floor boosts UNC’s rating. AP Poll and Coaches Poll voters, on the other hand, are probably paying a bit more attention to ceilings, and less to floors.
  • Pomeroy’s rankings have the highest correlation with the consensus, among the 39 teams listed here. BPI’s have the lowest. The rank order is: Pomeroy (0.926), TeamRankings (0.921), AP Poll (0.840), Torvik (0.831), Coaches Poll (0.818), BPI (0.725).
  • BPI has several big outliers both in and outside of their Top 10. BPI has the most optimistic projections by far for Wisconsin (BPI #8, average #25) and Marquette (BPI #10, average #25). They also have Baylor at #12 when the average is #45. And they’re the only ranking with Duke (#11, average #4) or Nevada (#15, average #9) outside the top 10.
  • We rank 5 teams at least 9 spots worse than consensus. We’re most pessimistic about Alabama (#51, average #37), followed by LSU (#61, average #50), Virginia Tech (#31, average #21), Northwestern (#59, average #49), and TCU (#41, average #32).
  • We rank 7 team at least 10 spots better than consensus. From most optimistic to least: Texas Tech (#22, average #35), Purdue (#14, average #26), Iowa State (#26, average #38), Iowa (#28, average #39), Houston (#33, average #43), Michigan (#13, average #23), and Miami (#19, average #29).

 

Full 2018 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings, From #1 To #353

Below are our full 2018 college basketball preseason rankings.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

Let’s look near the top of the rankings this season for an example. #10 Michigan State and #11 West Virginia are separated by 1.5 ratings points. That’s slightly larger than the difference between Michigan State and #5 Kentucky.

In other words, #10 Michigan State is closer to being #5 than they are #11.

RankTeamRating
1Duke19.5
2Kansas19.2
3N Carolina18.6
4Virginia18.6
5Kentucky17.5
6Villanova17.4
7Nevada17.0
8Tennessee16.5
9Gonzaga16.4
10Michigan St16.1
11W Virginia14.6
12Syracuse14.6
13Michigan14.4
14Purdue14.3
15Auburn14.2
16Clemson14.2
17Florida14.2
18Florida St14.1
19Miami (FL)14.1
20Kansas St14.0
21Wisconsin14.0
22Texas Tech13.1
23Oregon12.8
24Miss State12.7
25Marquette12.6
26Iowa State12.3
27Indiana12.3
28Iowa12.2
29Cincinnati12.2
30Butler12.0
31VA Tech12.0
32St Johns11.9
33Houston11.8
34Creighton11.8
35Nebraska11.8
36Arizona St11.7
37Ohio State11.6
38Baylor11.3
39Texas11.3
40Maryland11.2
41TX Christian11.0
42San Diego St10.9
43NC State10.8
44Texas A&M10.8
45Xavier10.7
46Oklahoma10.7
47Notre Dame10.5
48UCLA10.4
49St Marys9.7
50Penn State9.4
51Alabama9.4
52W Kentucky9.3
53Georgetown9.2
54Washington9.2
55Louisville9.2
56Seton Hall9.2
57Providence9.2
58S Methodist9.2
59Northwestern9.0
60Northeastrn9.0
61LSU9.0
62BYU8.5
63S Carolina8.4
64Central FL8.4
65Wichita St8.4
66Buffalo8.3
67Davidson8.2
68USC8.0
69Arizona7.9
70Georgia7.8
71Montana7.7
72Missouri7.7
73Loyola-Chi7.3
74Temple7.3
75Fresno St7.1
76Illinois St6.9
77Minnesota6.9
78S Dakota St6.9
79Vanderbilt6.8
80Oklahoma St6.6
81LA Lafayette6.5
82Boston Col6.4
83Richmond6.3
84Oregon St6.3
85Utah6.2
86DePaul6.2
87Illinois6.2
88New Mexico6.0
89Harvard6.0
90UC Irvine5.9
91Arkansas5.9
92Connecticut5.9
93Colorado5.8
94Valparaiso5.7
95Dayton5.7
96Georgia St5.7
97Boise State5.7
98VCU5.6
99Old Dominion5.5
100Ste F Austin5.5
101U Penn5.5
102Middle Tenn5.4
103Rhode Island5.3
104Rider4.9
105N Mex State4.8
106Mississippi4.7
107Saint Louis4.6
108St Bonavent4.5
109Wofford4.4
110South Dakota4.3
111Tulsa4.3
112Wake Forest4.2
113Memphis4.0
114NC-Grnsboro4.0
115Marshall3.8
116N Iowa3.6
117UNLV3.3
118Toledo3.3
119Stanford3.2
120Yale3.1
121Ball State3.0
122Belmont3.0
123S Illinois2.9
124GA Tech2.9
125San Diego2.7
126Iona2.6
127Grand Canyon2.6
128Wm & Mary2.5
129Furman2.4
130Lipscomb2.3
131Col Charlestn2.3
132S Alabama2.2
133St Josephs2.2
134LA Tech2.2
135Rutgers2.1
136Hofstra2.1
137UC Davis2.1
138Pittsburgh2.1
139E Michigan2.0
140Murray St2.0
141Geo Mason1.9
142Vermont1.8
143UAB1.6
144Utah Val St1.4
145CS Fullerton1.4
146Canisius1.3
147Wright State1.2
148Bradley1.2
149San Fransco1.2
150Princeton1.1
151Missouri St0.9
152Northern Kentucky0.9
153North Texas0.8
154UCSB0.8
155Weber State0.7
156Monmouth0.7
157Utah State0.6
158Kent State0.6
159Bucknell0.4
160NC-Wilmgton0.3
161California0.2
162IPFW0.1
163GA Southern0.1
164E Tenn St0.1
165U Mass0.0
166Indiana St-0.1
167Radford-0.1
168E Washingtn-0.2
169Fla Gulf Cst-0.4
170Ohio-0.5
171Evansville-0.5
172Jksnville St-0.5
173Pacific-0.7
174Winthrop-0.8
175App State-0.9
176Loyola Mymt-0.9
177Wyoming-1.0
178Geo Wshgtn-1.0
179N Colorado-1.0
180James Mad-1.1
181La Salle-1.1
182North Dakota State-1.2
183Lg Beach St-1.3
184Duquesne-1.4
185St Peters-1.4
186Towson-1.5
187Hawaii-1.5
188TX-San Ant-1.5
189Akron-1.5
190Central Mich-1.5
191Liberty-1.8
192Lehigh-1.8
193Drake-1.9
194Austin Peay-1.9
195St Fran (PA)-2.0
196TX El Paso-2.1
197Tulane-2.1
198Troy-2.1
199Colorado St-2.2
200Wash State-2.2
201LA Monroe-2.2
202Delaware-2.3
203Stony Brook-2.4
204S Mississippi-2.5
205N Illinois-2.6
206CS Bakersfld-2.7
207Denver-2.9
208Morehead St-2.9
209Brown-3.0
210Miami (OH)-3.1
211Columbia-3.1
212IL-Chicago-3.2
213Army-3.3
214Texas State-3.3
215Elon-3.3
216Florida Intl-3.4
217Hartford-3.4
218Colgate-3.4
219Lamar-3.5
220Bowling Grn-3.6
221New Jersey Tech-3.7
222TX-Arlington-3.9
223Nicholls St-3.9
224Portland St-3.9
225W Michigan-4.0
226Oakland-4.1
227WI-Grn Bay-4.1
228N Florida-4.2
229Wagner-4.3
230Pepperdine-4.4
231Coastal Car-4.5
232Nebraska Omaha-4.5
233High Point-4.5
234Holy Cross-4.6
235Mercer-4.6
236Albany-4.6
237Idaho State-4.7
238Rob Morris-4.7
239Maryland BC-4.8
240Boston U-4.8
241IUPUI-4.9
242Air Force-5.0
243TN State-5.0
244Santa Clara-5.0
245Fairfield-5.0
246California Baptist-5.1
247Hampton-5.1
248Sam Hous St-5.1
249Idaho-5.2
250Niagara-5.2
251TX Southern-5.3
252LIU-Brooklyn-5.3
253Quinnipiac-5.4
254Seattle-5.4
255WI-Milwkee-5.4
256TN Martin-5.4
257Fordham-5.6
258Portland-5.6
259Cornell-5.7
260Campbell-5.7
261S Florida-5.8
262AR Lit Rock-5.8
263Norfolk St-5.9
264Abilene Christian-5.9
265Navy-6.0
266UC Riverside-6.0
267Siena-6.1
268Gard-Webb-6.3
269SE Louisiana-6.3
270Charl South-6.3
271NC-Asheville-6.4
272Sac State-6.4
273UMKC-6.5
274TN Tech-6.5
275Fla Atlantic-6.5
276American-6.6
277Cleveland St-6.6
278Dartmouth-6.7
279North Dakota-6.9
280Cal Poly-6.9
281F Dickinson-6.9
282Marist-7.0
283Oral Roberts-7.0
284McNeese St-7.1
285Montana St-7.1
286E Kentucky-7.1
287Manhattan-7.2
288Charlotte-7.3
289NC Central-7.3
290Arkansas St-7.3
291Lafayette-7.3
292TX A&M-CC-7.4
293New Orleans-7.5
294SE Missouri-7.6
295Jacksonville-7.8
296Central Ark-7.9
297Drexel-8.0
298Samford-8.1
299Howard-8.2
300E Carolina-8.2
301Chattanooga-8.2
302N Hampshire-8.2
303Binghamton-8.2
304Grambling St-8.5
305W Carolina-8.5
306Citadel-8.5
307S Utah-8.5
308Prairie View-8.8
309W Illinois-8.9
310E Illinois-8.9
311Beth-Cook-9.0
312Loyola-MD-9.2
313Massachusetts Lowell-9.3
314Houston Bap-9.6
315Sacred Hrt-9.7
316St Fran (NY)-9.8
317Rice-9.8
318SIU Edward-9.9
319TX-Pan Am-10.0
320VA Military-10.1
321Youngs St-10.3
322Central Conn-10.4
323Bryant-10.6
324Southern-10.7
325N Arizona-10.7
326Detroit-10.8
327San Jose St-10.9
328Alabama St-11.1
329Kennesaw St-11.5
330Presbyterian-11.5
331Jackson St-11.7
332Morgan St-12.1
333Maine-12.2
334South Carolina Upstate-12.3
335Ark Pine Bl-12.3
336Mt St Marys-12.5
337Cal St Nrdge-12.9
338Incarnate Word-13.2
339NW State-13.3
340Stetson-13.4
341Maryland ES-13.6
342North Alabama-13.7
343Longwood-13.8
344S Car State-14.2
345NC A&T-14.6
346Chicago St-14.8
347Miss Val St-15.1
348Coppin State-15.6
349Alcorn State-15.6
350Savannah St-15.6
351Alab A&M-17.1
352Delaware St-17.4
353Florida A&M-17.6

Before You Go …

As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these 2018 college basketball preseason rankings. There’s a ton to see: