2016-17 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings & Win Totals

We published our official 2016-2017 college basketball preseason ratings yesterday, which means we now have full 2016-17 college basketball preseason projected standings for all teams, including:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

At the bottom of this post you’ll find our full conference standings projections, along with projected regular season records, and each team’s odds of winning their conference regular season and conference tournament.

Projection Highlights

There’s a lot of info in the giant table below, but here are a few 2016-17 college basketball preseason projected standings highlights.

First, our projected winners for the major conferences:

  • American: Cincinnati (35.4%)
  • ACC: Duke (45.3%)
  • Big 12: Kansas (57.9%)
  • Big East: Villanova (47.6%)
  • Big Ten: Wisconsin (25.8%)
  • Pac-12: Oregon (35.9%)
  • SEC: Kentucky (46.4%)

To most of you, the biggest surprise on that list is probably Cincinnati. The Bearcats just snuck into the preseason Coaches Poll, but are unranked in the AP Poll, while AAC rival UConn is ranked 16th and 18th. However,  our preseason rating model has the two teams almost identically rated. Despite the even ratings, Cincinnati is favored to win the conference title due to a slightly easier conference schedule.

Kansas being projected to win the Big 12, on the other hand, should come as a shock to no one. They’re one of 5 teams that we project with a better than 50% chance to take home a regular season conference title:

  • 64.0% Princeton (Ivy)
  • 58.8% Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
  • 57.9% Kansas (Big 12)
  • 53.2% Valparaiso (Horizon)
  • 51.4% Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)

On the other end of the spectrum is the MAC, where the favorite (Ohio) only has a 22.4% chance to win the regular season title, and six teams have at least an 8% chance at the crown.

2016-17 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings

For a lot more info on any team, click their name to be taken to their season projections page (and once there, be sure to check out the Bracketology link in Overview section of the Team Menu at the top of the page). Or, check out our projections hubs listed above.

Need a refresher on what info you can find in our automated bracketology projections, and how we created them? Check out our original post Introducing Our New Algorithmic Bracketology Projections and our review of what’s in our NCAA tournament bracket prediction pages.

[Note: Overall regular season record projections account for only already-scheduled games, so will be missing some early season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.]

2016-2017 TeamRankings Preseason College Basketball Conference Projections
America East Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Vermont13.03.020.88.249.8%47.2%
Albany10.95.118.812.217.8%18.6%
Stony Brook10.55.517.011.014.8%16.2%
N Hampshire10.06.017.912.112.2%13.0%
Binghamton6.99.114.616.42.3%2.6%
Massachusetts Lowell6.29.812.518.51.4%0.0%
Maryland BC6.010.011.717.31.3%1.6%
Hartford4.911.19.321.70.5%0.6%
Maine3.612.47.123.90.1%0.2%
American Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Cincinnati14.04.023.66.435.4%29.8%
Connecticut13.84.221.46.631.4%29.9%
S Methodist12.65.422.57.520.2%20.4%
Houston9.09.017.211.83.2%4.7%
Memphis8.99.117.112.92.7%4.1%
Temple8.39.715.414.62.0%3.4%
Central FL8.29.815.812.22.3%3.1%
Tulsa7.810.213.614.41.6%2.4%
E Carolina6.811.215.015.00.9%1.4%
Tulane5.013.010.018.00.1%0.4%
S Florida4.613.410.818.20.2%0.4%
Atlantic 10 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
VCU13.54.522.76.327.6%26.1%
Rhode Island13.14.921.57.524.7%20.5%
Dayton13.14.921.07.024.1%22.3%
Geo Wshgtn10.27.818.012.06.2%6.6%
Davidson9.78.314.912.14.7%6.2%
Richmond9.58.516.912.13.4%4.9%
St Bonavent9.48.617.412.63.3%4.3%
St Josephs8.89.214.313.72.7%3.3%
La Salle7.710.313.615.40.7%1.5%
U Mass6.911.114.416.60.8%1.1%
Fordham6.811.215.115.90.6%1.2%
Duquesne6.012.014.516.50.6%0.8%
Geo Mason5.912.112.316.70.4%0.7%
Saint Louis5.212.811.918.10.1%0.4%
ACC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Duke15.03.026.23.845.3%40.1%
N Carolina12.45.623.07.014.0%14.3%
Syracuse11.86.223.17.910.3%9.2%
Louisville11.76.321.37.79.7%9.8%
Virginia11.66.420.48.69.6%10.3%
Clemson9.58.517.610.42.2%2.7%
NC State9.58.519.59.52.2%2.8%
VA Tech8.59.517.210.81.5%2.0%
Pittsburgh8.49.618.311.71.4%2.5%
Notre Dame8.39.717.712.31.4%1.6%
Miami (FL)8.39.717.310.71.5%2.2%
Florida St8.19.918.411.60.9%1.9%
Wake Forest5.812.212.315.70.1%0.3%
GA Tech4.213.813.217.80.1%0.1%
Boston Col1.816.28.621.40.0%0.0%
Atlantic Sun Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Fla Gulf Cst10.83.220.49.651.4%47.9%
NJIT7.56.514.714.311.3%11.7%
N Florida7.16.914.416.68.8%9.3%
Jacksonville7.16.917.513.58.4%9.3%
Lipscomb7.07.014.916.18.3%8.8%
Stetson6.57.515.815.26.4%6.8%
SC Upstate5.58.514.216.83.9%4.2%
Kennesaw St4.49.610.619.41.4%2.0%
Big 12 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Kansas14.83.225.14.957.9%44.7%
W Virginia11.07.021.98.112.5%13.8%
Texas9.68.419.011.06.8%8.5%
Baylor9.58.518.210.86.1%8.0%
Iowa State9.18.917.210.85.3%6.9%
Texas Tech8.59.519.410.64.0%5.5%
Oklahoma8.39.715.812.23.3%5.0%
Kansas St8.19.918.811.23.0%4.6%
Oklahoma St5.712.313.415.60.5%1.5%
TX Christian5.412.614.815.20.6%1.3%
Big East Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Villanova14.63.424.64.447.6%39.0%
Xavier13.05.022.46.624.6%23.4%
Butler10.77.319.49.68.3%9.8%
Creighton9.88.218.910.15.4%6.9%
Georgetown9.68.418.110.94.9%6.6%
Marquette9.68.418.310.74.3%6.3%
Seton Hall9.38.717.011.04.1%5.9%
Providence6.611.415.914.10.8%1.6%
St Johns4.413.611.117.90.1%0.4%
DePaul2.415.610.519.50.0%0.1%
Big Sky Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Weber State13.54.518.37.734.3%31.1%
Montana12.75.317.911.125.3%22.8%
Idaho11.26.816.512.512.4%12.7%
North Dakota10.37.715.112.98.1%7.7%
Sac State9.68.415.014.04.9%5.8%
E Washingtn9.28.814.715.34.6%6.0%
Montana St8.99.115.615.44.5%5.8%
Idaho State8.29.812.717.32.8%4.6%
Portland St7.710.312.716.31.6%2.5%
N Colorado6.711.310.117.91.0%0.0%
S Utah5.013.08.422.60.2%0.5%
N Arizona5.013.08.022.00.3%0.5%
Big South Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Winthrop13.84.221.28.843.6%39.5%
NC-Asheville12.06.017.813.221.3%20.5%
High Point10.27.816.613.410.2%10.5%
Gard-Webb9.38.714.515.56.4%7.3%
Radford9.09.013.017.05.3%6.1%
Liberty8.89.214.916.15.4%5.9%
Charl South8.69.414.114.94.3%5.2%
Campbell7.210.813.216.82.0%2.7%
Longwood6.711.310.618.41.3%1.9%
Presbyterian4.313.77.521.50.3%0.5%
Big Ten Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Wisconsin13.34.722.76.325.8%22.9%
Michigan St12.55.521.37.719.4%18.0%
Indiana11.56.522.09.013.2%13.6%
Purdue11.56.521.38.712.0%12.3%
Michigan10.67.420.49.68.2%8.8%
Maryland10.57.520.79.37.4%6.7%
Ohio State10.08.020.610.45.9%6.8%
Iowa9.78.318.911.13.9%4.5%
Northwestern8.010.017.212.81.4%2.0%
Minnesota7.310.717.113.91.2%1.9%
Illinois7.110.915.514.51.0%1.4%
Penn State5.712.313.316.70.3%0.5%
Nebraska5.512.511.716.30.3%0.7%
Rutgers2.815.210.720.30.0%0.0%
Big West Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Lg Beach St10.95.116.214.829.4%28.5%
UC Irvine10.75.318.013.026.1%25.9%
UCSB9.36.715.112.915.2%16.8%
Hawaii8.77.315.511.511.1%0.0%
Cal St Nrdge7.48.612.614.46.1%8.3%
Cal Poly6.69.412.117.93.3%5.9%
CS Fullerton6.49.611.915.13.2%5.4%
UC Riverside6.29.811.416.63.2%5.0%
UC Davis5.810.211.317.72.3%4.2%
CAA Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
NC-Wilmgton12.35.721.69.425.5%22.7%
Wm & Mary11.96.119.010.021.9%19.7%
James Mad11.26.820.810.215.3%15.6%
Col Charlestn10.77.317.911.113.8%13.2%
Hofstra9.88.217.012.09.0%9.6%
Elon9.18.917.014.06.2%7.6%
Towson8.99.116.113.95.7%6.8%
Northeastrn7.210.812.018.01.9%3.3%
Drexel4.813.210.021.00.4%1.0%
Delaware4.113.99.921.10.4%0.6%
CUSA Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
UAB13.64.421.48.633.5%42.0%
Middle Tenn11.86.218.712.316.3%11.9%
W Kentucky11.66.418.911.114.6%12.7%
Old Dominion11.46.616.012.010.8%9.0%
LA Tech11.26.820.110.98.2%6.6%
Marshall9.68.416.114.96.0%6.0%
Charlotte8.79.313.315.72.3%3.0%
TX El Paso8.59.513.713.32.2%1.9%
Fla Atlantic7.810.213.415.61.5%1.7%
S Mississippi7.710.312.415.60.9%1.1%
Rice7.510.514.716.31.4%1.7%
North Texas7.410.614.815.21.4%1.5%
Florida Intl7.110.913.117.90.9%1.1%
TX-San Ant2.115.96.124.90.0%0.0%
Horizon League Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Valparaiso14.73.323.16.953.2%42.2%
WI-Grn Bay12.55.520.110.918.9%19.6%
Oakland12.06.019.69.415.7%16.8%
Cleveland St8.79.313.716.33.4%5.3%
Detroit8.59.513.017.02.6%4.6%
Wright State8.39.714.716.32.3%4.0%
Youngs St7.410.613.417.61.4%2.8%
WI-Milwkee7.210.811.819.21.4%2.6%
N Kentucky6.211.812.518.50.7%1.6%
IL-Chicago4.613.410.920.10.3%0.6%
Ivy Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Princeton11.92.121.65.464.0%54.4%
Harvard9.44.618.58.517.1%18.9%
Yale8.85.216.910.112.1%15.1%
Columbia6.27.813.313.73.0%4.1%
U Penn5.38.710.916.11.5%2.5%
Dartmouth5.28.811.615.41.0%2.2%
Cornell4.99.110.317.71.0%1.9%
Brown4.39.713.316.70.4%1.0%
MAAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Monmouth16.04.022.88.245.7%31.3%
Siena14.15.920.011.022.2%34.5%
Iona13.26.818.110.915.6%13.1%
St Peters11.28.816.813.26.8%7.0%
Rider9.410.614.716.32.6%3.4%
Fairfield9.310.713.915.12.2%3.2%
Manhattan8.811.212.918.11.9%2.6%
Canisius8.311.712.518.51.5%2.1%
Quinnipiac7.013.010.517.50.7%1.2%
Marist6.813.210.320.70.6%1.1%
Niagara5.914.19.721.30.2%0.6%
MAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Ohio12.25.820.48.622.4%18.9%
Akron11.76.319.49.619.5%16.6%
Toledo11.16.919.611.413.5%13.5%
Buffalo10.37.717.211.89.8%10.0%
Ball State10.08.019.411.68.6%9.6%
E Michigan9.68.416.813.28.3%9.2%
N Illinois9.38.718.212.86.9%6.8%
W Michigan8.69.413.614.45.1%6.4%
Central Mich8.29.815.515.53.2%4.5%
Bowling Grn6.511.513.617.41.4%2.2%
Kent State6.411.612.816.21.0%1.9%
Miami (OH)4.213.811.119.90.2%0.4%
MEAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Norfolk St10.75.315.413.623.0%19.6%
NC Central10.45.616.813.218.7%18.0%
Howard9.36.713.116.911.2%11.4%
Morgan St9.16.913.215.810.6%9.7%
S Car State8.97.111.517.58.7%10.0%
Hampton8.27.811.816.26.9%7.4%
Beth-Cook7.48.612.117.94.2%4.8%
NC A&T7.48.611.319.73.1%5.1%
Maryland ES7.18.910.519.53.1%4.5%
Delaware St7.09.010.520.53.3%4.1%
Savannah St6.99.19.718.32.7%0.0%
Coppin State6.99.19.821.24.1%4.3%
Florida A&M4.611.47.921.10.5%1.0%
MVC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Wichita St15.12.924.64.458.8%47.2%
N Iowa12.15.917.29.817.8%18.0%
Illinois St10.67.417.011.09.2%10.7%
Indiana St9.09.013.714.33.9%5.8%
Evansville8.99.117.213.83.7%5.6%
S Illinois8.79.316.314.73.0%5.1%
Loyola-Chi6.911.113.415.61.2%2.3%
Missouri St6.811.214.215.81.1%2.2%
Drake6.711.312.215.80.9%2.0%
Bradley5.212.810.019.00.4%1.0%
Mountain West Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
San Diego St14.43.622.35.745.7%34.6%
Nevada12.85.220.68.422.7%20.9%
New Mexico11.36.718.29.813.2%13.8%
Boise State9.68.415.712.35.2%5.5%
UNLV9.18.915.914.13.9%11.5%
Fresno St8.99.116.413.63.7%4.7%
Wyoming7.810.214.715.31.6%2.3%
Colorado St7.510.515.315.71.3%2.5%
Utah State7.310.714.114.91.7%2.6%
Air Force6.511.514.315.70.8%1.4%
San Jose St3.914.19.119.90.2%0.3%
Northeast Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Wagner13.24.818.010.038.0%35.3%
F Dickinson10.97.114.015.016.1%15.8%
Mt St Marys10.47.613.316.712.4%12.6%
Rob Morris9.68.412.517.58.5%9.1%
Bryant9.09.012.018.07.0%7.4%
LIU-Brooklyn8.79.313.617.46.1%6.4%
St Fran (NY)8.59.512.317.74.7%5.3%
Sacred Hrt7.810.210.919.13.8%4.2%
St Fran (PA)7.410.610.418.63.0%3.5%
Central Conn4.513.56.023.00.4%0.5%
Ohio Valley Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
EastWLWLRegTourn
Belmont12.93.120.08.040.5%40.0%
Morehead St10.06.017.111.911.9%12.1%
TN State8.77.315.113.95.2%6.4%
E Kentucky7.98.113.416.62.9%4.2%
TN Tech7.09.013.817.22.1%2.8%
Jksnville StConference10.8Overall20.6Conference Odds1.0%
WestWLWLRegTourn
Murray St12.23.820.79.330.5%25.1%
Austin Peay6.99.112.018.02.0%2.3%
E Illinois6.99.112.816.21.6%2.0%
SIU Edward6.69.411.618.41.0%1.7%
TN Martin6.69.413.117.91.2%1.7%
SE Missouri5.110.910.719.30.3%0.6%
Pac-12 Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Oregon13.84.223.75.335.9%28.9%
Arizona13.44.623.86.225.9%24.5%
UCLA12.06.021.27.815.1%14.9%
California11.46.621.48.611.8%13.5%
Colorado8.69.417.712.32.7%3.5%
Arizona St8.010.015.313.71.6%3.0%
Utah7.810.216.012.01.4%2.5%
USC7.810.216.913.11.8%2.8%
Stanford7.710.313.914.11.7%2.9%
Washington7.410.615.014.01.3%2.0%
Oregon St6.411.616.015.00.7%1.5%
Wash State3.614.410.417.60.1%0.2%
Patriot Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Lehigh13.24.818.910.136.7%33.6%
Bucknell12.06.017.013.021.6%21.8%
Boston U11.07.016.913.114.8%14.4%
Holy Cross10.37.715.515.510.2%10.9%
Colgate9.18.914.416.66.3%7.1%
Navy8.69.414.016.04.5%5.1%
American6.811.210.518.52.1%2.3%
Loyola-MD6.811.210.718.31.5%2.0%
Army6.111.910.118.91.0%1.4%
Lafayette6.111.99.719.31.2%1.5%
SEC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Kentucky14.53.524.96.146.4%38.1%
Florida11.76.319.39.714.4%15.1%
Texas A&M11.36.719.58.511.4%11.7%
Vanderbilt10.37.718.911.16.7%8.6%
Alabama9.48.616.812.24.6%4.3%
Arkansas9.28.818.812.23.6%4.8%
Georgia8.69.417.212.82.9%4.1%
Mississippi8.59.516.612.42.0%2.5%
Auburn8.49.616.113.91.8%2.5%
S Carolina8.39.716.814.21.8%2.8%
Miss State8.29.816.511.52.5%2.6%
LSU6.911.113.514.51.2%1.5%
Tennessee6.111.912.516.50.6%0.9%
Missouri4.413.610.617.40.2%0.3%
Southern Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Chattanooga13.64.420.98.140.8%32.6%
Mercer11.26.817.312.714.8%15.2%
E Tenn St10.77.317.213.811.7%12.6%
NC-Grnsboro10.57.518.312.711.0%11.9%
Wofford10.27.815.213.810.0%10.8%
Furman9.28.815.715.36.0%7.4%
Samford7.910.114.716.33.2%4.3%
W Carolina6.611.411.020.01.4%2.5%
VA Military6.511.510.317.71.0%2.3%
Citadel3.614.48.822.20.3%0.4%
Southland Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Ste F Austin14.93.121.46.645.8%42.0%
Sam Hous St14.33.722.68.432.6%31.5%
TX A&M-CC11.86.218.310.78.8%11.4%
NW State9.28.814.114.93.0%3.5%
New Orleans9.18.913.315.72.8%3.2%
SE Louisiana8.69.413.817.21.9%2.3%
Houston Bap8.19.912.716.31.1%2.1%
Incarnate Word7.710.313.016.01.3%0.0%
Nicholls St7.410.612.318.70.6%1.1%
Lamar7.011.013.617.40.6%1.1%
McNeese St6.611.410.618.40.8%1.1%
Central Ark6.311.77.422.60.4%0.7%
Abilene Christian6.111.911.018.00.6%0.0%
SWAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
TX Southern12.95.114.816.231.4%27.5%
Jackson St12.25.818.212.824.7%22.5%
Southern11.96.117.713.321.8%20.0%
Alabama St9.88.213.016.09.1%10.3%
Grambling St7.810.212.417.63.2%4.8%
Prairie View7.710.311.120.92.7%4.6%
Ark Pine Bl7.210.89.022.01.9%3.5%
Miss Val St7.110.98.023.02.1%3.6%
Alab A&M6.811.27.721.31.6%3.2%
Alcorn State6.611.49.919.11.6%0.0%
Summit Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
N Dakota St10.85.219.99.128.4%24.4%
S Dakota St10.75.319.511.526.7%23.5%
IPFW9.16.917.912.113.4%13.4%
Neb Omaha9.07.014.514.512.6%13.2%
Denver7.78.314.814.26.2%7.7%
IUPUI7.38.713.016.05.4%6.8%
Oral Roberts6.79.310.617.44.2%5.5%
W Illinois5.810.211.915.12.1%3.5%
South Dakota4.811.210.318.71.0%2.1%
Sun Belt Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
TX-Arlington14.83.223.27.849.0%38.5%
AR Lit Rock12.55.522.09.018.4%17.0%
GA Southern11.36.718.512.510.3%11.2%
Georgia St10.97.116.912.18.6%9.8%
LA Lafayette10.27.818.612.46.9%9.0%
LA Monroe8.010.014.515.52.1%3.8%
S Alabama7.810.215.215.81.3%3.0%
Coastal Car7.610.414.316.71.5%2.6%
Troy6.911.113.717.31.0%2.0%
Arkansas St6.511.510.919.10.4%1.2%
Texas State6.511.513.416.60.5%1.3%
App State4.913.19.219.80.1%0.6%
WCC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
Gonzaga15.42.624.13.947.1%42.7%
St Marys15.03.024.24.840.0%36.4%
BYU12.55.521.88.29.5%12.4%
Pepperdine9.28.815.914.11.7%3.1%
Pacific7.910.115.315.70.6%1.7%
Santa Clara7.910.115.714.30.6%1.6%
Portland7.110.913.215.80.3%1.1%
Loyola Mymt6.012.011.817.20.1%0.6%
San Diego4.613.410.319.70.0%0.2%
San Fransco4.513.511.117.90.0%0.2%
WAC Projected StandingsConferenceOverallConference Odds
TeamWLWLRegTourn
N Mex State10.93.122.57.541.8%45.1%
CS Bakersfld10.04.019.010.026.9%31.5%
Grand Canyon9.44.620.011.019.7%0.0%
UMKC7.56.515.715.36.2%11.4%
Seattle6.47.613.014.03.5%6.6%
Utah Val St4.99.110.918.11.3%3.1%
Chicago St3.710.36.121.90.4%1.3%
TX-Pan Am3.210.88.921.10.2%0.9%