2012 Women’s NCAA Tournament Odds

posted in NCAA Basketball, Women's Basketball

Most of the interest on this site and in the sporting world this week has been focused on the Men’s college basketball tournament.  With our Bracket Odds, Matchup Predictor, Bracket Builder and hundreds of pre-picked brackets we have loads of tools and analysis to help build a winner this March.

All of the rankings and simulations can be applied to the women’s side of things as well.  With the women’s tournament seeding announced today, we ran the rankings and then calculated each school’s round by round odds of success.

Below are a team’s odds of getting to a given round.  e.g, Baylor has a 79.6% chance of making the final four, and a 40.9% chance of winning the whole tournament. Below the table is our analysis of the women’s tournament.

Women’s NCAA Tournament Round By Round Survival Odds

SeedTeam2nd RoundSweet SixteenElite EightFinal FourTitle GameChamp
1Baylor99.7%95.6%91.7%79.6%64.4%40.9%
16Santa Barbara0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Ohio St55.9%2.7%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%
9Florida44.1%1.7%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
5Georgetown75.5%37.3%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%
12Fresno St24.5%6.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Georgia Tech92.1%55.4%3.7%1.1%0.2%0.0%
13Sacred Heart7.9%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Nebraska46.8%17.9%3.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%
11Kansas53.2%21.9%4.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
3Delaware94.1%59.6%16.8%1.6%0.4%0.0%
14Ark Little Rock5.9%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7DePaul53.0%9.0%4.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%
10BYU47.0%7.3%3.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2Tennessee97.4%83.4%68.2%15.5%7.7%2.3%
15TN Martin2.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
1Stanford94.7%85.6%77.6%59.2%20.2%7.9%
16Hampton5.3%1.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
8West Virginia50.9%6.5%3.4%1.0%0.1%0.0%
9Texas49.1%6.1%3.1%0.9%0.1%0.0%
5South Carolina78.5%48.4%8.5%2.8%0.2%0.0%
12E Michigan21.5%6.9%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%
4Purdue79.6%40.1%6.0%1.7%0.1%0.0%
13S Dakota St20.4%4.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Oklahoma62.3%35.5%10.5%2.3%0.2%0.0%
11Michigan37.7%17.1%3.6%0.6%0.0%0.0%
3St John's83.6%44.3%12.5%2.6%0.2%0.0%
14Creighton16.4%3.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vanderbilt79.2%16.7%8.2%1.6%0.1%0.0%
10Middle Tenn St20.8%1.5%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Duke98.7%81.7%64.6%27.1%5.6%1.3%
15Samford1.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
1Notre Dame99.1%91.5%85.7%69.8%32.2%14.0%
16Liberty0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8California65.0%6.3%3.9%1.2%0.1%0.0%
9Iowa35.0%2.0%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
5St Bonaventure59.7%23.0%1.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%
12FL Gulf Coast40.3%12.3%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%
4Georgia84.8%60.0%7.2%2.2%0.2%0.0%
13Marist15.2%4.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Arkansas58.4%16.6%4.8%0.6%0.1%0.0%
11Dayton41.6%9.3%2.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
3Texas A&M96.5%73.8%37.9%10.0%2.0%0.3%
14Albany NY3.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Louisville53.8%11.1%3.3%0.4%0.0%0.0%
10Michigan St46.2%8.5%2.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2Maryland98.6%80.4%49.5%14.7%3.4%0.7%
15Navy1.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
1Connecticut99.9%95.5%88.9%80.8%57.2%31.7%
16Prairie View0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Kansas St44.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
9Princeton56.0%2.8%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
5LSU77.4%27.7%1.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%
12San Diego St22.6%3.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Penn St86.2%64.1%7.4%3.8%0.9%0.1%
13UTEP13.8%4.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Rutgers60.5%19.2%8.9%0.9%0.1%0.0%
11Gonzaga39.5%9.4%3.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
3Miami FL97.2%71.1%47.2%8.4%2.5%0.4%
14Idaho St2.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7WI Green Bay54.8%25.8%9.9%1.0%0.2%0.0%
10Iowa St45.2%19.2%6.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%
2Kentucky92.4%54.1%24.0%3.0%0.6%0.1%
15McNeese St7.6%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Women’s NCAA Tournament Favorites

Right away Baylor and UConn should stand out as extremely strong favorites.

On the men’s side, overall #1 seed Kentucky has a 23.8% chance of winning the title, but Baylor (40.9%) and UConn (31.7%) far surpass that. In general there is less parity in women’s basketball, which means fewer upsets and more chalk.  All four of the number ones have over a 50% chance of reaching the Final Four.

Women’s NCAA Tournament Dark Horses

Nobody wants to just pick favorites so here are a few teams that could make some noise.

Kansas (11)- While not the powerhouse that their male counterparts are, the Jayhawks are favored to upset Nebraska in the first round.  They could even challenge Elena Delle Donne’s Delaware squad to get to the Sweet Sixteen.

Oklahoma (6)-  The Sooners have a tough first round match-up with Michigan, but we’d have them favored over #3 seed St. John’s in the second round.

Miami (3)- The Hurricanes are paired with a weak #2 seed (Kentucky) and are easily the favorites to make the Elite Eight.

Duke (2)- The Blue Devils have the best chance to make the Final Four of any non-number one, in large part thanks to being paired up against Stanford.

Tennessee (2)- Pat Summit’s crew is number 5 in our power ratings and has the fifth best championship odds.  Being in the same region as Baylor is tough for them, but it could be tough for Brittney Griner and co. as well.

While chalk may be the story in the women’s tourney, there will always be a few upsets along the way.  Choose them wisely and you could find yourself on the top of March Madness pools for two separate tournaments.