March 13, 2012 - by Austin Link
Most of the interest on this site and in the sporting world this week has been focused on the Men’s college basketball tournament. With our Bracket Odds, Matchup Predictor, Bracket Builder and hundreds of pre-picked brackets we have loads of tools and analysis to help build a winner this March.
All of the rankings and simulations can be applied to the women’s side of things as well. With the women’s tournament seeding announced today, we ran the rankings and then calculated each school’s round by round odds of success.
Below are a team’s odds of getting to a given round. e.g, Baylor has a 79.6% chance of making the final four, and a 40.9% chance of winning the whole tournament. Below the table is our analysis of the women’s tournament.
Seed Team 2nd Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Title Game Champ
1 Baylor 99.7% 95.6% 91.7% 79.6% 64.4% 40.9%
16 Santa Barbara 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Ohio St 55.9% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Florida 44.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Georgetown 75.5% 37.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
12 Fresno St 24.5% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Georgia Tech 92.1% 55.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
13 Sacred Heart 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Nebraska 46.8% 17.9% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Kansas 53.2% 21.9% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 Delaware 94.1% 59.6% 16.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0%
14 Ark Little Rock 5.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 DePaul 53.0% 9.0% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
10 BYU 47.0% 7.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Tennessee 97.4% 83.4% 68.2% 15.5% 7.7% 2.3%
15 TN Martin 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 Stanford 94.7% 85.6% 77.6% 59.2% 20.2% 7.9%
16 Hampton 5.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
8 West Virginia 50.9% 6.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Texas 49.1% 6.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
5 South Carolina 78.5% 48.4% 8.5% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0%
12 E Michigan 21.5% 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Purdue 79.6% 40.1% 6.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0%
13 S Dakota St 20.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Oklahoma 62.3% 35.5% 10.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0%
11 Michigan 37.7% 17.1% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
3 St John's 83.6% 44.3% 12.5% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0%
14 Creighton 16.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Vanderbilt 79.2% 16.7% 8.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
10 Middle Tenn St 20.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Duke 98.7% 81.7% 64.6% 27.1% 5.6% 1.3%
15 Samford 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 Notre Dame 99.1% 91.5% 85.7% 69.8% 32.2% 14.0%
16 Liberty 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 California 65.0% 6.3% 3.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Iowa 35.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 St Bonaventure 59.7% 23.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
12 FL Gulf Coast 40.3% 12.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Georgia 84.8% 60.0% 7.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0%
13 Marist 15.2% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Arkansas 58.4% 16.6% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
11 Dayton 41.6% 9.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Texas A&M 96.5% 73.8% 37.9% 10.0% 2.0% 0.3%
14 Albany NY 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Louisville 53.8% 11.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Michigan St 46.2% 8.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Maryland 98.6% 80.4% 49.5% 14.7% 3.4% 0.7%
15 Navy 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 Connecticut 99.9% 95.5% 88.9% 80.8% 57.2% 31.7%
16 Prairie View 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Kansas St 44.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Princeton 56.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 LSU 77.4% 27.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
12 San Diego St 22.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Penn St 86.2% 64.1% 7.4% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1%
13 UTEP 13.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Rutgers 60.5% 19.2% 8.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
11 Gonzaga 39.5% 9.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Miami FL 97.2% 71.1% 47.2% 8.4% 2.5% 0.4%
14 Idaho St 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 WI Green Bay 54.8% 25.8% 9.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
10 Iowa St 45.2% 19.2% 6.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 Kentucky 92.4% 54.1% 24.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1%
15 McNeese St 7.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Right away Baylor and UConn should stand out as extremely strong favorites.
On the men’s side, overall #1 seed Kentucky has a 23.8% chance of winning the title, but Baylor (40.9%) and UConn (31.7%) far surpass that. In general there is less parity in women’s basketball, which means fewer upsets and more chalk. All four of the number ones have over a 50% chance of reaching the Final Four.
Nobody wants to just pick favorites so here are a few teams that could make some noise.
Kansas (11)- While not the powerhouse that their male counterparts are, the Jayhawks are favored to upset Nebraska in the first round. They could even challenge Elena Delle Donne’s Delaware squad to get to the Sweet Sixteen.
Oklahoma (6)- The Sooners have a tough first round match-up with Michigan, but we’d have them favored over #3 seed St. John’s in the second round.
Miami (3)- The Hurricanes are paired with a weak #2 seed (Kentucky) and are easily the favorites to make the Elite Eight.
Duke (2)- The Blue Devils have the best chance to make the Final Four of any non-number one, in large part thanks to being paired up against Stanford.
Tennessee (2)- Pat Summit’s crew is number 5 in our power ratings and has the fifth best championship odds. Being in the same region as Baylor is tough for them, but it could be tough for Brittney Griner and co. as well.
While chalk may be the story in the women’s tourney, there will always be a few upsets along the way. Choose them wisely and you could find yourself on the top of March Madness pools for two separate tournaments.
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