October 29, 2012 - by David Hess
The NBA season is upon us, with the Cavs and Wizards tipping things off Tuesday evening, and the slightly more enticing Heat-Celtics and Lakers-Mavs matchups getting underway later that night. That means it’s time to post our preseason projections, before the word “preseason” is no longer accurate.
The main purpose of these ratings is to provide a data-driven starting point for our NBA projected standings page. This will automatically update every day this season, to reflect the latest results and the most up to date power ratings.
As we did last season, we’re releasing these with a word of caution. While the 2011-12 preseason NBA standings projections performed well in terms of picking the final order of teams, the win total projections and postseason odds were overly conservative.
We expect something similar to happen this year. We believe the ordering of teams should be fairly accurate, but the actual probabilities and projected wins are likely clustered in too narrow of a band. The best teams will be better, and the worst teams will be worse, we’re just not sure by how much.
Here’s what we can take away from these projections:
Without further ado, our 2012-2013 NBA preseason projections:
Eastern Conference | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlantic | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
New York | 6 | 46.6 | 35.4 | 74% | 28% | 10% | 5.1% |
Boston | 8 | 45.7 | 36.4 | 71% | 26% | 9% | 4.3% |
Philadelphia | 10 | 45.0 | 37.0 | 69% | 24% | 8% | 4.0% |
New Jersey | 18 | 39.9 | 42.1 | 50% | 11% | 3% | 1.5% |
Toronto | 19 | 39.9 | 42.1 | 49% | 11% | 3% | 1.3% |
Central | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
Chicago | 5 | 47.5 | 34.5 | 76% | 41% | 12% | 6.1% |
Indiana | 11 | 45.0 | 37.0 | 69% | 30% | 7% | 3.6% |
Milwaukee | 16 | 42.7 | 39.3 | 60% | 22% | 5% | 2.4% |
Detroit | 28 | 31.8 | 50.2 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0.2% |
Cleveland | 29 | 29.7 | 52.3 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0.2% |
Southeast | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
Miami | 1 | 54.7 | 27.3 | 92% | 66% | 32% | 16.5% |
Atlanta | 12 | 44.5 | 37.5 | 67% | 20% | 7% | 3.6% |
Orlando | 21 | 36.7 | 45.3 | 39% | 7% | 2% | 0.8% |
Washington | 22 | 36.5 | 45.5 | 38% | 6% | 2% | 0.8% |
Charlotte | 30 | 23.6 | 58.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0% |
Western Conference | |||||||
Northwest | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
Okla City | 3 | 49.4 | 32.6 | 79% | 37% | 15% | 7.4% |
Denver | 9 | 45.4 | 36.6 | 68% | 25% | 8% | 4.2% |
Minnesota | 13 | 42.7 | 39.3 | 60% | 18% | 5% | 2.7% |
Utah | 15 | 42.6 | 39.4 | 59% | 17% | 6% | 2.6% |
Portland | 27 | 31.3 | 50.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% |
Pacific | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
LA Clippers | 4 | 47.7 | 34.3 | 75% | 40% | 12% | 5.7% |
LA Lakers | 7 | 45.8 | 36.2 | 70% | 34% | 9% | 4.3% |
Phoenix | 20 | 38.7 | 43.3 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1.2% |
Golden State | 23 | 36.1 | 45.9 | 35% | 9% | 2% | 0.8% |
Sacramento | 26 | 33.0 | 49.0 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0.4% |
Southwest | TR Rank | W | L | Playoffs | Win Div | 1 Seed | NBA Champs |
San Antonio | 2 | 53.4 | 28.6 | 89% | 59% | 27% | 13.8% |
Memphis | 14 | 42.7 | 39.3 | 58% | 16% | 5% | 2.6% |
Dallas | 17 | 42.1 | 39.9 | 58% | 15% | 5% | 2.3% |
Houston | 24 | 35.2 | 46.8 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0.6% |
New Orleans | 25 | 34.2 | 47.8 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0.5% |
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