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March 24, 2016 - by David Hess
With MLB Opening Day 2016 approaching, it’s time to release our MLB preseason ratings and MLB projected standings.
The main purpose of these ratings is to provide a data-driven starting point for our MLB projected standings. They also drive our MLB postseason seed projections and our other MLB season projection details. These include fully automated win-loss predictions, playoff chances, and World Series win odds. All the info will be updated every single day of the season to reflect the latest results and the most up to date MLB power ratings.
In other sports, we use our own data and models to come up with independent estimates of team quality. We then compare those to the market, and to other projections. For MLB, however, we’re simply not at the leading edge of preseason analysis.
So rather than trying to create our own preseason ratings, and deriving a season projection from those, our initial MLB projected standings are based on a weighted average of betting market info and projected standings from other well respected sources.
Essentially, we combine projected win total info from various sources to into a consensus win total projection for every team. Then we figure out what preseason team ratings would lead to those exact projections.
We’re still publishing these in the interest of full disclosure, so that you know what the initial rating in our projection system was for each team. But we’re most definitely not recommending that you use these MLB projected standings to go place preseason bets.
You may look at the projections below and think that they aren’t extreme enough. In a way, you’d be right — the best team in the league will almost certainly win more than the 93 games we’ve forecast for the Cubs, and the worst (we’re looking at you, Braves and Phillies) will likely lose more than 96.
However, picking which teams will wildly exceed expectations is rather tricky. On average these conservative predictions should provide a less biased starting point than more aggressive ones.
If you’d like to see our more aggressive best case and worst case scenarios for each team, check out their team projections page. Here are the New York Yankees projections as an example. Follow that link and you’ll find a chart showing the projected odds of the Yankees winning any specific number of games. It also includes a list of their toughest & easiest games, and a table showing how their chances of winning the World Series change depending on what seed they get in the playoffs.
Starting with consensus win projections and working backwards to ratings led to some interesting results this season. Here’s the most surprising thing that caught our eye:
How can the top rated teams all be from the AL, yet the NL teams have the most projected wins? If you’re a Braves or Phillies fan, you might be able to guess the answer:
That’s right. When we follow the consensus win projections to their logical conclusion, we find that the world at large thinks the top of the AL is great, but the bottom of the NL is terrible. So bad, in fact, that the best NL teams will pad their records enough to win more games than the best AL teams.
That effect carries over to World Series championship odds as well. Just like the betting markets, we project the Cubs with the best chance to win the title, despite having them ranked only 6th in our preseason ratings. That’s in large part because they have a much easier path to the playoffs than any AL team:
Baseball isn’t like the NBA, where the Warriors and Spurs are so much better than every other team that it would be a shock if someone else wins the title. The MLB Playoffs involve a great deal more luck. Having a large edge in your chance to reach the playoffs can easily outweigh a slightly lower team rating. That’s how the Cubs can end up as our projected most likely World Series winner.
Here is how the rest of playoffs would play out, if these projections ended up being spot on (which, to be clear, is very unlikely):
2016 TeamRankings.com MLB Preseason Projected Standings
American League
AL East W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
Boston 87 75 1 48.6% 28.7% 12.5% 6.6%
Toronto 86 76 3 46.3% 25.5% 10.7% 5.9%
NY Yankees 85 78 5 38.8% 21.5% 8.4% 4.7%
Tampa Bay 83 79 7 33.1% 16.8% 6.5% 3.7%
Baltimore 77 85 18 17.4% 7.5% 2.5% 1.5%
AL Central W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
Cleveland 86 76 4 48.3% 33.1% 11.8% 6.1%
Kansas City 83 79 9 35.8% 21.9% 7.0% 3.8%
Chi Sox 81 81 12 28.5% 17.1% 4.5% 2.8%
Detroit 81 81 13 26.1% 15.3% 4.3% 2.5%
Minnesota 79 83 17 21.8% 12.6% 3.3% 1.9%
AL West W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
Houston 87 75 2 50.9% 36.4% 12.1% 6.8%
Seattle 83 79 8 36.8% 23.9% 6.4% 4.0%
Texas 82 80 11 31.8% 19.6% 6.0% 3.3%
LA Angels 79 83 16 21.9% 12.3% 2.3% 1.9%
Oakland 75 87 22 14.0% 7.8% 1.7% 1.1%
National League
NL East W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
NY Mets 89 73 15 65.0% 46.9% 14.5% 5.9%
Washington 88 74 19 57.0% 38.1% 10.8% 4.5%
Miami 78 84 24 22.5% 11.9% 2.2% 1.1%
Atlanta 67 95 29 3.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Philadelphia 66 96 30 2.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1%
NL Central W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
Chi Cubs 93 69 6 76.6% 56.5% 25.8% 10.3%
St. Louis 84 78 20 41.5% 18.5% 6.2% 2.8%
Pittsburgh 84 78 21 41.1% 19.1% 6.4% 2.9%
Milwaukee 72 90 27 9.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Cincinnati 71 91 28 7.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2%
NL West W L TR Rank Playoffs Win Div Top Seed WS Champs
LA Dodgers 91 72 10 67.4% 46.5% 17.6% 7.5%
SF Giants 88 75 14 55.9% 31.4% 10.5% 4.9%
Arizona 80 82 23 28.9% 13.7% 3.5% 1.8%
San Diego 74 88 25 12.7% 4.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Colorado 72 90 26 8.5% 3.4% 0.5% 0.3%
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