Seth’s Week 9 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

The only success of my Week 8 lineup was picking players that would get injured. Four of my players left with injuries, including major injuries for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Steve Smith Sr., and Ladarius Green.

My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week# Contests EnteredTotal Entry FeesTotal Prize WinningsNet Gain/Loss for WeekFinals Tickets WonCumulative ProfitCumulative Finals Tickets Won
15$32$327$2954$2954
29$82$0($82)0$2134
35$45$29($16)1$1975
45$45$0($45)0$1525
54$40$0($40)0$1125
64$35$70$350$1475
74$35$0($35)0$1125
84$35$0($35)0$775

Fantasy Points Allowed Medians

Fantasy owners like to use average points allowed vs. positions, and that’s not a bad strategy with the tools and information available at various sources. However, with a small sample size of weeks, just one game can heavily skew team averages. Just look at how much last week’s Saints/Giants 52-49 shootout could skew the defensive marks for those teams.

With that in mind, I’ve compiled the median FanDuel points allowed through eight weeks. It’s an interesting exercise to compare the median points allowed rankings to the average points allowed rankings.

Note: Rankings are 1-32, with #1 rank indicating most points allowed (worst defense).

Quarterback

TeamMedianAverage
Baltimore Ravens12
New Orleans Saints21
Miami Dolphins312
San Diego Chargers416
Tampa Bay Buccaneers53
Oakland Raiders66
Houston Texans79
Washington Redskins818
Detroit Lions94
Indianapolis Colts1013
Cleveland Browns1110
New England Patriots1215
Kansas City Chiefs1317
Buffalo Bills1414
Jacksonville Jaguars147
San Francisco 49ers1611
New York Giants175
Minnesota Vikings1821
Chicago Bears198
Tennessee Titans2020
Arizona Cardinals2127
Pittsburgh Steelers2219
Atlanta Falcons2328
Philadelphia Eagles2426
Cincinnati Bengals2522
Green Bay Packers2625
Dallas Cowboys2724
Seattle Seahawks2829
Carolina Panthers2930
St. Louis Rams3031
New York Jets3123
Denver Broncos3232

The Ravens and Saints are terrible by both measures. However, the Dolphins, Chargers, and Redskins look far worse when looking at their median points allowed. The Giants also look far better when we judge by the median, thus dwindling the impact of last week’s horrendous performance vs. Drew Brees. Jacksonville and Chicago also grade out far more favorably when looking at median.

Running Backs

TeamMedianAverage
Miami Dolphins110
Detroit Lions23
San Diego Chargers21
San Francisco 49ers44
Cleveland Browns52
New York Giants612
Indianapolis Colts76
New Orleans Saints811
Dallas Cowboys97
Green Bay Packers1014
Buffalo Bills1116
Cincinnati Bengals1215
Washington Redskins1322
Houston Texans148
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1521
Baltimore Ravens1617
Denver Broncos1719
Arizona Cardinals1827
Chicago Bears1920
Atlanta Falcons205
St. Louis Rams2123
New England Patriots2225
Tennessee Titans2326
Oakland Raiders2418
Kansas City Chiefs2524
Carolina Panthers2613
Philadelphia Eagles2729
Pittsburgh Steelers2830
Jacksonville Jaguars299
Minnesota Vikings2928
Seattle Seahawks3131
New York Jets3232

The Dolphins have had some fair weeks stopping the run, but they’ve been the most consistently poor team based on their weekly median. The Giants also grade out far worse according to the median. Of course, it’s clear by both measures that Detroit, San Diego, San Francisco, and Cleveland are terrible at stopping runners.

Wide Receivers

TeamMedianAverage
Baltimore Ravens12
Detroit Lions214
New England Patriots36
Kansas City Chiefs41
Indianapolis Colts58
Cleveland Browns615
San Francisco 49ers73
Tennessee Titans820
Philadelphia Eagles97
Washington Redskins1011
Miami Dolphins1112
Tampa Bay Buccaneers124
Buffalo Bills139
Jacksonville Jaguars1416
New York Jets1517
New York Giants1613
Houston Texans1719
Arizona Cardinals1822
Oakland Raiders1921
New Orleans Saints205
San Diego Chargers2126
Pittsburgh Steelers2218
Chicago Bears2310
Cincinnati Bengals2423
Minnesota Vikings2525
Green Bay Packers2624
Carolina Panthers2728
Dallas Cowboys2827
St. Louis Rams2929
Atlanta Falcons3030
Denver Broncos3131
Seattle Seahawks3232

The Lions have been terrible this season at 1-7, and their median vs. wideouts also shows some of their defensive isseus. The Browns and Titans have also been far worse vs. wideouts when looking at the median points allowed. The Ravens and Chiefs have been especially bad, while the Patriots have also seen big totals against them as opponents play from behind.

Tight End

TeamMedianAverage
Oakland Raiders11
Green Bay Packers210
Tampa Bay Buccaneers37
New York Giants42
Miami Dolphins514
Indianapolis Colts611
San Diego Chargers712
Minnesota Vikings89
Detroit Lions98
Seattle Seahawks104
Atlanta Falcons115
Carolina Panthers1220
San Francisco 49ers1316
Pittsburgh Steelers143
Washington Redskins1526
Denver Broncos1622
Jacksonville Jaguars1617
New Orleans Saints186
Dallas Cowboys1921
Philadelphia Eagles2031
Houston Texans2118
New England Patriots2127
Cincinnati Bengals2323
Tennessee Titans2313
St. Louis Rams2525
New York Jets2624
Buffalo Bills2715
Chicago Bears2828
Arizona Cardinals2930
Kansas City Chiefs3032
Cleveland Browns3119
Baltimore Ravens3229

The tight end points allowed totals are typically lower than other positions, so we’re also seeing larger discrepancies between the median and average points allowed. The Raiders and Giants have been terrible by both measures, but the rest of the top 10s are disheveled.

My Week 9 Strategy

My strategy this week is to avoid players who will get injured. In all seriousness, I’m going for a bit more of an upside week with my “safe” strategy of the last couple weeks not going so well.

To review my normal strategy:

  1. Start with Vegas over/under lines
  2. Evaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each position
  3. Evaluate salaries and contest format

The highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

TeamVegas-Implied Points
New England33.0
New Orleans27.8
San Diego26.5
Pittsburgh26.0
NY Giants26.0

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

TeamVegas-Implied Points
Jacksonville17.2
San Francisco18.8
Washington19.0
St. Louis19.0
Indianapolis20.0

The Result: My Lineup for Week 9

Here’s my lineup for Week 9:

Week 9 FanDuel Lineup

  • Big Ben wasn’t a great fantasy producer in his return from a knee injury last week, but the Steelers did show a willingness to throw the ball. Roethlisberger threw the ball 45 times, and could air it out this week after the Steelers lost Le’Veon Bell for the season. Oakland has the sixth worst median and average points allowed vs. QBs.
  • Jeremy Langford will be a popular player starting for the Bears vs. arguably the NFL’s worst rush defense. San Diego has the second worst median and worst average defense vs. running backs. Langford’s talent at the NFL level remains to be seen, but he’ll be worked in heavily with an offense that’s been centered around Matt Forte. Forte is out with a knee injury. Devonta Freeman remains the top points scorer at the position, and will be facing a 49ers team already looking toward 2016. The 49ers have the fourth worst median and average fantasy points allowed vs. running backs.
  • Antonio Brown is a solid stack with Roethlisberger, scoring double-digit points in every game Roethlisberger has started this season. Eric Decker could be in for more targets with Brandon Marshall’s questionable status. Decker has been a safe play, scoring double-digit points in every game he’s played this season. Malcom Floyd becomes Philip Rivers’ No. 1 wide receiver target after Keenan Allen was lost for the season. Floyd can be feast or famine as a big Red Zone target, but he’s managed double-digit points in two of his last three games.
  • New England has done a nice job stopping tight ends this season, but the Redskins have to throw to someone. Jordan Reed returned from a concussion to score 24.7 points last week, and had double-digit points in the three previous full games he played this season. He’s also caught at least five balls in every game played thus far.
  • Rounding out my lineup is Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell at the minimum price, with seven field goals in the last three weeks. He’s a risk because of coach Mike Tomlin’s aggressive play, but the Steelers still rank tied for fourth in Vegas-implied points in Week 9. The Falcons defense makes sense against a 49ers “offense” that’s starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, and has the second lowest Vegas-implied points.

That’s my lineup for Week 9. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest!