Seth’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

I’m headed out on vacation today, so I’m going to post an early FanDuel lineup for Week 10, especially since some contests start on Thursday.

I had a solid Week 9 thanks in large part to the Steelers tandem of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week# Contests EnteredTotal Entry FeesTotal Prize WinningsNet Gain/Loss for WeekFinals Tickets WonCumulative ProfitCumulative Finals Tickets Won

Fantasy Points Allowed Medians

Last week I compiled the fantasy points allowed medians as an alternative to average points allowed. This week I’ve added Week 9, and will also briefly discuss the biggest changes in the median and average points allowed numbers since last week.

Why do medians matter? In short, with such a small sample size of game results (e.g. only 9 weeks of play so far this season), looking at the median as well as the mean (average) of points allowed to each position can help adjust for fluky results that can make a team look much better or worse than it actually is.

Note: Rankings are 1-32, with #1 rank indicating most points allowed (worst defense).

Points Allowed To Quarterbacks

New Orleans Saints11
Baltimore Ravens22
Oakland Raiders34
Cleveland Browns48
San Diego Chargers516
Houston Texans69
Detroit Lions73
Washington Redskins821
New York Giants96
Jacksonville Jaguars107
Miami Dolphins1113
Tampa Bay Buccaneers125
Indianapolis Colts1314
Kansas City Chiefs1418
New England Patriots1520
Buffalo Bills1619
Pittsburgh Steelers1717
Green Bay Packers1815
Minnesota Vikings1928
San Francisco 49ers1911
Tennessee Titans2112
Arizona Cardinals2227
Chicago Bears2310
Philadelphia Eagles2422
Dallas Cowboys2525
Atlanta Falcons2629
Cincinnati Bengals2726
Carolina Panthers2824
Seattle Seahawks2930
St. Louis Rams3031
New York Jets3123
Denver Broncos3232
  • Oakland is nearing status as the worst defense in the league vs. QBs after getting thrashed by Ben Roethlisberger and late-game replacement Landry Jones.
  • Minnesota’s average points allowed also improved seven spots in the rankings after holding Nick Foles to 168 yards and no scores.

Points Allowed To Running Backs

San Diego Chargers11
Miami Dolphins23
Detroit Lions34
San Francisco 49ers46
Dallas Cowboys52
New York Giants612
Washington Redskins716
Buffalo Bills813
Tampa Bay Buccaneers921
Cleveland Browns105
Denver Broncos1120
St. Louis Rams1222
New Orleans Saints1310
Indianapolis Colts1411
Oakland Raiders1515
Cincinnati Bengals1617
Green Bay Packers1718
Houston Texans187
Chicago Bears1919
Baltimore Ravens2023
Arizona Cardinals2126
Atlanta Falcons228
Carolina Panthers2314
Jacksonville Jaguars249
New England Patriots2528
Pittsburgh Steelers2629
Kansas City Chiefs2724
Tennessee Titans2827
Philadelphia Eagles2930
Minnesota Vikings3025
Seattle Seahawks3131
New York Jets3232
  • After allowing 109 yards and one score to a Matt Forte-less Bears backfield, the Chargers are worst in median and average points allowed vs. RBs.
  • Eagles runners quietly rushed for 172 yards and two scores on Sunday, pushing the Cowboys into the worst five in both median and average points allowed vs. RBs.
  • The Bucs are one of the worst 10 teams against running backs according to median, but nearly one of the 10 best according to average. That’s to say they’ve consistently had issues, but have yet to allow any monster rushing performances.

Wide Receivers

Baltimore Ravens12
Philadelphia Eagles23
Detroit Lions314
Kansas City Chiefs41
Tennessee Titans519
Cleveland Browns617
Jacksonville Jaguars716
New England Patriots810
Tampa Bay Buccaneers94
Indianapolis Colts107
Miami Dolphins1113
Washington Redskins129
New York Jets138
Buffalo Bills1411
Houston Texans1521
Oakland Raiders1618
San Francisco 49ers166
Arizona Cardinals1823
New Orleans Saints195
New York Giants2015
Pittsburgh Steelers2112
Green Bay Packers2222
San Diego Chargers2324
Chicago Bears2420
Cincinnati Bengals2527
Minnesota Vikings2625
Dallas Cowboys2728
Carolina Panthers2826
St. Louis Rams2929
Denver Broncos3031
Atlanta Falcons3130
Seattle Seahawks3232
  • Philadelphia’s Week 9 struggles vs. Dallas wideouts, allowing three scores, pushed them to the second worst median after ranking ninth worst last week.
  • Jacksonville usually has the public perception of a poor defense, and their issues stopping the tandem of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall pushed them from 14th to seventh worst median.

Tight Ends

Oakland Raiders11
Indianapolis Colts29
San Diego Chargers38
Green Bay Packers410
New York Giants53
Detroit Lions612
Atlanta Falcons76
Seattle Seahawks84
Minnesota Vikings914
Carolina Panthers1015
Pittsburgh Steelers115
Tennessee Titans127
New England Patriots1326
New Orleans Saints132
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1313
Denver Broncos1619
San Francisco 49ers1716
Washington Redskins1827
Jacksonville Jaguars1918
Miami Dolphins2020
Houston Texans2117
Dallas Cowboys2223
Cincinnati Bengals2322
Philadelphia Eagles2431
St. Louis Rams2525
New York Jets2624
Buffalo Bills2721
Chicago Bears2728
Arizona Cardinals2930
Kansas City Chiefs3032
Cleveland Browns3111
Baltimore Ravens3229
  • Oakland remains the worst defense in both median and average points against vs. TEs. Fifth-round rookie Jesse James caught his first two career passes against the Raiders, including one score.

My Week 10 Strategy

My Pittsburgh stack went very well last week, and this week I’m going with what I feel is another under-the-radar potent offense.

To review my normal strategy:

  1. Start with Vegas over/under lines
  2. Evaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each position
  3. Evaluate salaries and contest format

As of Tuesday, the highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

TeamVegas-Implied Odds
New England31.2
Green Bay29.2

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

TeamVegas-Implied Odds
Kansas City17.8

The Result: My Lineup for Week 10

Here’s my lineup for Week 10:

FanDuel Week 10

  • Blake Bortles has quietly been a fantasy find this season, ranking seventh among available quarterbacks in points coming into the week. He’s set for a very favorable matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks second worst in median and average points allowed vs. QBs.
  • Despite a minor foot injury, DeAngelo Williams is an appealing running back option after leading Week 9 in points at the position. He faces a Cleveland defense that’s shown slight improvement vs. runners, but still ranks among the 10 worst in median and average fantasy points allowed. With Ben Roethlisberger sidelined again, Pittsburgh’s running game will be important. LeGarrette Blount is coming off a big game, and could see more snaps after Dion Lewis tore his ACL. The Giants are sixth worst in median fantasy points allowed vs. RBs.
  • Allen Robinson gives me a formidable Jacksonville stack, especially with Allen Hurns potentially sidelined on Sunday. Robinson is the seventh ranked wideout available, and has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games. Of course, Baltimore also has the worst median and second worst average defense vs. wide receivers, so Robinson should be popular.
  • Similar logic caused me to pick Jarvis Landry, facing the second worst median and third worst average defense vs. WRs in Philadelphia. Landry has failed to tally double-digit fantasy points only once this season.
  • Kamar Aiken is back as Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver with Steve Smith Sr. out for the year. Aiken hasn’t yet shown breakout upside, but he has accumulated at least nine points in four of his last five games.
  • For the second time this season, I’m taking the plunge on Rob Gronkowski’s hefty salary. The Giants have been awful at stopping tight ends this season, ranking fifth worst in median fantasy points allowed and third worst in average points allowed. It’s certainly risky in tournament play to pair Gronk with Blount, but I like the pairing as a safer play in a double up contest, figuring that at least one of the players will have a big day with the Pats showing 31.2 Vegas-implied points as of Tuesday.
  • With some money left over for my kicker and defense, I felt that I did my best with Justin Tucker and the Packers. Baltimore ranks fourth in Vegas-implied points, and Tucker has scored at least eight fantasy points in all but one week this season. The Packers return home after two rough road games to face a Lions offense that’s struggled. Green Bay has some injuries on defense, but they also have 15 sacks and eight takeaways in four home games this year.

That’s my lineup for Week 10. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest! It’s your last chance to qualify for the Week 11 final, to claim a share of $25,000 in prizes.