Seth’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

November 11, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman

I’m headed out on vacation today, so I’m going to post an early FanDuel lineup for Week 10, especially since some contests start on Thursday.

I had a solid Week 9 thanks in large part to the Steelers tandem of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week	# Contests Entered	Total Entry Fees	Total Prize Winnings	Net Gain/Loss for Week	Finals Tickets Won	Cumulative Profit	Cumulative Finals Tickets Won
1	5	$32	$327	$295	4	$295	4
2	9	$82	$0	($82)	0	$213	4
3	5	$45	$29	($16)	1	$197	5
4	5	$45	$0	($45)	0	$152	5
5	4	$40	$0	($40)	0	$112	5
6	4	$35	$70	$35	0	$147	5
7	4	$35	$0	($35)	0	$112	5
8	4	$35	$0	($35)	0	$77	5
9	4	$35	$70	$35	0	$112	5

Fantasy Points Allowed Medians

Last week I compiled the fantasy points allowed medians as an alternative to average points allowed. This week I’ve added Week 9, and will also briefly discuss the biggest changes in the median and average points allowed numbers since last week.

Why do medians matter? In short, with such a small sample size of game results (e.g. only 9 weeks of play so far this season), looking at the median as well as the mean (average) of points allowed to each position can help adjust for fluky results that can make a team look much better or worse than it actually is.

Note: Rankings are 1-32, with #1 rank indicating most points allowed (worst defense).

Points Allowed To Quarterbacks

Team	Median	Average
New Orleans Saints	1	1
Baltimore Ravens	2	2
Oakland Raiders	3	4
Cleveland Browns	4	8
San Diego Chargers	5	16
Houston Texans	6	9
Detroit Lions	7	3
Washington Redskins	8	21
New York Giants	9	6
Jacksonville Jaguars	10	7
Miami Dolphins	11	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	5
Indianapolis Colts	13	14
Kansas City Chiefs	14	18
New England Patriots	15	20
Buffalo Bills	16	19
Pittsburgh Steelers	17	17
Green Bay Packers	18	15
Minnesota Vikings	19	28
San Francisco 49ers	19	11
Tennessee Titans	21	12
Arizona Cardinals	22	27
Chicago Bears	23	10
Philadelphia Eagles	24	22
Dallas Cowboys	25	25
Atlanta Falcons	26	29
Cincinnati Bengals	27	26
Carolina Panthers	28	24
Seattle Seahawks	29	30
St. Louis Rams	30	31
New York Jets	31	23
Denver Broncos	32	32

Oakland is nearing status as the worst defense in the league vs. QBs after getting thrashed by Ben Roethlisberger and late-game replacement Landry Jones.
Minnesota’s average points allowed also improved seven spots in the rankings after holding Nick Foles to 168 yards and no scores.

Points Allowed To Running Backs

Team	Median	Average
San Diego Chargers	1	1
Miami Dolphins	2	3
Detroit Lions	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	4	6
Dallas Cowboys	5	2
New York Giants	6	12
Washington Redskins	7	16
Buffalo Bills	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	21
Cleveland Browns	10	5
Denver Broncos	11	20
St. Louis Rams	12	22
New Orleans Saints	13	10
Indianapolis Colts	14	11
Oakland Raiders	15	15
Cincinnati Bengals	16	17
Green Bay Packers	17	18
Houston Texans	18	7
Chicago Bears	19	19
Baltimore Ravens	20	23
Arizona Cardinals	21	26
Atlanta Falcons	22	8
Carolina Panthers	23	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	9
New England Patriots	25	28
Pittsburgh Steelers	26	29
Kansas City Chiefs	27	24
Tennessee Titans	28	27
Philadelphia Eagles	29	30
Minnesota Vikings	30	25
Seattle Seahawks	31	31
New York Jets	32	32

After allowing 109 yards and one score to a Matt Forte-less Bears backfield, the Chargers are worst in median and average points allowed vs. RBs.
Eagles runners quietly rushed for 172 yards and two scores on Sunday, pushing the Cowboys into the worst five in both median and average points allowed vs. RBs.
The Bucs are one of the worst 10 teams against running backs according to median, but nearly one of the 10 best according to average. That’s to say they’ve consistently had issues, but have yet to allow any monster rushing performances.

Wide Receivers

Team	Median	Average
Baltimore Ravens	1	2
Philadelphia Eagles	2	3
Detroit Lions	3	14
Kansas City Chiefs	4	1
Tennessee Titans	5	19
Cleveland Browns	6	17
Jacksonville Jaguars	7	16
New England Patriots	8	10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	4
Indianapolis Colts	10	7
Miami Dolphins	11	13
Washington Redskins	12	9
New York Jets	13	8
Buffalo Bills	14	11
Houston Texans	15	21
Oakland Raiders	16	18
San Francisco 49ers	16	6
Arizona Cardinals	18	23
New Orleans Saints	19	5
New York Giants	20	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	21	12
Green Bay Packers	22	22
San Diego Chargers	23	24
Chicago Bears	24	20
Cincinnati Bengals	25	27
Minnesota Vikings	26	25
Dallas Cowboys	27	28
Carolina Panthers	28	26
St. Louis Rams	29	29
Denver Broncos	30	31
Atlanta Falcons	31	30
Seattle Seahawks	32	32

Philadelphia’s Week 9 struggles vs. Dallas wideouts, allowing three scores, pushed them to the second worst median after ranking ninth worst last week.
Jacksonville usually has the public perception of a poor defense, and their issues stopping the tandem of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall pushed them from 14th to seventh worst median.

Tight Ends

Team	Median	Average
Oakland Raiders	1	1
Indianapolis Colts	2	9
San Diego Chargers	3	8
Green Bay Packers	4	10
New York Giants	5	3
Detroit Lions	6	12
Atlanta Falcons	7	6
Seattle Seahawks	8	4
Minnesota Vikings	9	14
Carolina Panthers	10	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	11	5
Tennessee Titans	12	7
New England Patriots	13	26
New Orleans Saints	13	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13	13
Denver Broncos	16	19
San Francisco 49ers	17	16
Washington Redskins	18	27
Jacksonville Jaguars	19	18
Miami Dolphins	20	20
Houston Texans	21	17
Dallas Cowboys	22	23
Cincinnati Bengals	23	22
Philadelphia Eagles	24	31
St. Louis Rams	25	25
New York Jets	26	24
Buffalo Bills	27	21
Chicago Bears	27	28
Arizona Cardinals	29	30
Kansas City Chiefs	30	32
Cleveland Browns	31	11
Baltimore Ravens	32	29

Oakland remains the worst defense in both median and average points against vs. TEs. Fifth-round rookie Jesse James caught his first two career passes against the Raiders, including one score.

My Week 10 Strategy

My Pittsburgh stack went very well last week, and this week I’m going with what I feel is another under-the-radar potent offense.

To review my normal strategy:

Start with Vegas over/under lines
Evaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each position
Evaluate salaries and contest format

As of Tuesday, the highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Odds
New England	31.2
Green Bay	29.2
Cincinnati	28.8
Baltimore	26.8
Philadelphia	26.2

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Odds
Chicago	17.5
Kansas City	17.8
Detroit	18.2
Cleveland	18.2
Houston	18.2

The Result: My Lineup for Week 10

Here’s my lineup for Week 10:

Blake Bortles has quietly been a fantasy find this season, ranking seventh among available quarterbacks in points coming into the week. He’s set for a very favorable matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks second worst in median and average points allowed vs. QBs.
Despite a minor foot injury, DeAngelo Williams is an appealing running back option after leading Week 9 in points at the position. He faces a Cleveland defense that’s shown slight improvement vs. runners, but still ranks among the 10 worst in median and average fantasy points allowed. With Ben Roethlisberger sidelined again, Pittsburgh’s running game will be important. LeGarrette Blount is coming off a big game, and could see more snaps after Dion Lewis tore his ACL. The Giants are sixth worst in median fantasy points allowed vs. RBs.
Allen Robinson gives me a formidable Jacksonville stack, especially with Allen Hurns potentially sidelined on Sunday. Robinson is the seventh ranked wideout available, and has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games. Of course, Baltimore also has the worst median and second worst average defense vs. wide receivers, so Robinson should be popular.
Similar logic caused me to pick Jarvis Landry, facing the second worst median and third worst average defense vs. WRs in Philadelphia. Landry has failed to tally double-digit fantasy points only once this season.
Kamar Aiken is back as Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver with Steve Smith Sr. out for the year. Aiken hasn’t yet shown breakout upside, but he has accumulated at least nine points in four of his last five games.
For the second time this season, I’m taking the plunge on Rob Gronkowski’s hefty salary. The Giants have been awful at stopping tight ends this season, ranking fifth worst in median fantasy points allowed and third worst in average points allowed. It’s certainly risky in tournament play to pair Gronk with Blount, but I like the pairing as a safer play in a double up contest, figuring that at least one of the players will have a big day with the Pats showing 31.2 Vegas-implied points as of Tuesday.
With some money left over for my kicker and defense, I felt that I did my best with Justin Tucker and the Packers. Baltimore ranks fourth in Vegas-implied points, and Tucker has scored at least eight fantasy points in all but one week this season. The Packers return home after two rough road games to face a Lions offense that’s struggled. Green Bay has some injuries on defense, but they also have 15 sacks and eight takeaways in four home games this year.

That’s my lineup for Week 10. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest! It’s your last chance to qualify for the Week 11 final, to claim a share of $25,000 in prizes.