November 14, 2015 - by Tom Federico
Getting right to the point:
If you’re a rational human being who enjoys making sound investment decisions, you should enter our weekly FanDuel contest, the TeamRankings Football Championship, which runs through NFL Week 10.
We are not saying this just to promote our private tourney. Sure, we want it to fill every week. But that’s not the point here.
The point is that the way FanDuel has structured this contest makes it a compelling ROI opportunity.
To understand why, first let’s review the details of the contest:
Here’s what many people don’t realize: That last bullet point above means a lot, and completely transforms the dynamics of the contest.
Even though the odds of finishing in the top 3 of our weekly tourneys are obviously not very high, it’s always a possibility, and the mere existence of that potentially huge Week 11 bonus prize is extremely significant from an expected value standpoint.
Let’s do some quick math. To simplify things, let’s assume that everyone who enters our private tourney is equally skilled at Fanduel.
Is the analysis above simplistic? Yes.
Do some players who are very smart and/or experienced have a better chance to finish in the top 3 in a given week than other players? Yes.
Do you still have more than a 50% chance of losing your money if you enter our tourney? Yes. (Shockingly, this isn’t truckloads of free money being given away by FanDuel.)
But as far as potential investments go, even if you assume your odds are a bit lower than we describe above, there’s a strong case that the TeamRankings Football Challenge offers very attractive expected returns. And if the tourney doesn’t fill, the expected returns go up even more.
Of course, it’s totally your choice whether to enter or not. Our goal here is not to convince people to blindly throw their money into playing on FanDuel. But at the very least, if you’re considering playing, don’t enter any regular ole’ FanDuel contests until you get in our private tourney first, otherwise you’re just shortchanging your odds to profit.
(And by the way, you can put up to 25 entries in our contest, until it’s full.)
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