November 6, 2015 - by David Hess
Last week I scaled back my play volume a bit, selected a lot of chalk plays in my head-to-head lineups, and used a simple model I put together to inform my defensive picks. The end result was a mildly negative week for my head-to-head and 50/50 entries, but that’s actually an improvement over what had been happening in the previous weeks. My defensive picks for my head-to-head lineups turned out well:
On the other hand, my tournament stacks somehow managed to include neither Eli Manning nor Drew Brees, which in retrospect seems kind of silly, given that the game had one of the highest over/under lines of the week. I’m going to try to stick to more obvious stacks this week, and not get too cute.
I’m sticking with the same strategy I used last week:
As a quick reminder, the original strategy here was to be willing to pay for volume points at QB & RB, even at the expense of a little bit of value. I’m still going to do a bit of that; the increased attention to pick% is just an addition to my already existing strategy guidelines.
Here’s my primary lineup for Week 9:
Some notes on this lineup:
Here’s my secondary lineup:
Notes on this lineup:
As is the case most weeks, my first step this week was to come up with some single-team stacks that seem to have the potential for a big day.
This week I focused a bit more on something pretty basic — picking teams that are projected to score a lot of points. Sounds obvious, right? Well, I didn’t do that last week, and missed out on both sides of the 52-49 Saints-Giants game.
Here’s what I ended up with:
That’s 5 of the 6 highest projected point totals for this weekend. The only top-6 projected team I didn’t use was New Orleans. That’s partly because I think Brees will be more popular than justified after last week’s amazing performance, and partly because I couldn’t figure out who to stack on. I may revisit this idea on Sunday morning, and enter a Saints stack in a cheap tournament.
Filling in around the stacks with solid consensus values, with some emphasis on trying to find players with high upside, here’s the result (click to enlarge):
As usual, I’ll be entering these lineups in a FanDuel Sunday Million tournament, as well as a smaller 100-person or 250-person tournament. The idea is that if they do astronomically well, I’ll be rewarded for that in the Sunday Million, but if they just score in the top 1% or so, I’ll get a better return in the 100-person tournament.
The most likely outcome for any specific tournament lineup is that I win nothing, but with multiple stacks, hopefully at least one will still do well enough to recoup my buy-ins, and let me tread water while I wait for a big payout.
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