October 15, 2019 - by Jason Lisk
Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin have been rolling over teams in 2019 (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire)
In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 8 of the 2019 season.
The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.
Rank | Team | Conference | Rating | Rating Change | Total Wins | Total Wins Change | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
111 | UNLV | Mountain West | -13.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | W at Vanderbilt 34-10 |
125 | Bowling Grn | MAC | -24.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | W vs. Toledo 20-7 |
13 | Utah | Pac-12 | 17.0 | 3.8 | 9.9 | 0.7 | W at Oregon St 52-7 |
59 | Purdue | Big Ten | 1.2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | W vs. Maryland 40-14 |
46 | Navy | AAC | 4.3 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 1.0 | W at Tulsa 45-17 |
41 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.4 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 0.9 | W vs. Nebraska 34-7 |
3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 29.2 | 2.9 | 11.0 | 0.3 | W vs. Michigan St 38-0 |
25 | S Carolina | SEC | 11.6 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 1.2 | W at Georgia 20-17 |
10 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 20.7 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 0.3 | W vs. Colorado 45-3 |
93 | Florida Intl | CUSA | -8.7 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 0.6 | W vs. Charlotte 48-23 |
84 | LA Tech | CUSA | -6.0 | 2.4 | 9.0 | 0.3 | W vs. U Mass 69-21 |
UNLV was the biggest mover of the week, winning comfortably at Vanderbilt. Oregon and Utah both climb in the rankings and are now both inside the Top 13. South Carolina got the big upset at Georgia. Minnesota and Wisconsin both moved to 3-0 in the Big Ten Western Division, and could be heading for a big rivalry showdown at the end of the season.
Rank | Team | Conference | Rating | Rating Change | Total Wins | Total Wins Change | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 0.5 | -2.2 | 5.7 | -0.6 | L vs. Washington 51-27 |
72 | Colorado | Pac-12 | -1.9 | -2.4 | 4.4 | -0.5 | L at Oregon 45-3 |
56 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 1.8 | -2.5 | 5.5 | -0.8 | L at Minnesota 34-7 |
21 | Michigan St | Big Ten | 13.6 | -2.5 | 7.4 | -0.3 | L at Wisconsin 38-0 |
7 | Georgia | SEC | 24.0 | -3.1 | 9.7 | -1.2 | L vs. S Carolina 20-17 |
86 | Tulsa | AAC | -6.5 | -3.3 | 3.4 | -0.8 | L vs. Navy 45-17 |
100 | Vanderbilt | SEC | -10.6 | -3.8 | 2.5 | -1.2 | L vs. UNLV 34-10 |
43 | Maryland | Big Ten | 4.6 | -3.8 | 5.1 | -1.1 | L at Purdue 40-14 |
82 | Oregon St | Pac-12 | -5.4 | -3.9 | 3.1 | -0.6 | L vs. Utah 52-7 |
83 | Toledo | MAC | -5.6 | -4.0 | 7.9 | -1.5 | L at Bowling Grn 20-7 |
Remember when Nebraska was a hot breakout candidate? Yeah, not so much. Score this one for recent program history and performance matters. Getting to six wins will be an achievement now (currently 4-3, but Nebraska is an underdog according to our ratings for each of the last five games).
Arizona and Colorado both suffered big losses in the Pac-12 to conference favorites and saw their ratings take a hit. Is there any team more inconsistent than Maryland? They are now 3-3, with all three wins by at least 40 points and now two of their losses by more than 20.
Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.
Rank | Team | Conference | Rating |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 36.9 |
2 | Alabama | SEC | 33.3 |
3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 29.2 |
4 | Clemson | ACC | 26.9 |
5 | Penn State | Big Ten | 25.8 |
6 | LSU | SEC | 25.5 |
7 | Georgia | SEC | 24.0 |
8 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 23.8 |
9 | Auburn | SEC | 21.6 |
10 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 20.7 |
11 | Notre Dame | Independent I-A | 19.9 |
12 | Florida | SEC | 17.4 |
13 | Utah | Pac-12 | 17.0 |
14 | Michigan | Big Ten | 16.1 |
15 | Washington | Pac-12 | 15.7 |
16 | Central FL | AAC | 15.5 |
17 | Iowa | Big Ten | 14.7 |
18 | Texas | Big 12 | 14.7 |
19 | Missouri | SEC | 13.8 |
20 | Texas A&M | SEC | 13.6 |
21 | Michigan St | Big Ten | 13.6 |
22 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 13.1 |
23 | USC | Pac-12 | 12.3 |
24 | Cincinnati | AAC | 11.7 |
25 | S Carolina | SEC | 11.6 |
Wisconsin makes a big move up to No. 3 with a shutout of Michigan State. We are heading for a big meeting on October 26th between Wisconsin and Ohio State. Georgia drops all the way to No. 7 with their loss at home to South Carolina. Oklahoma solidified their standing in the Big 12 with a win over Texas. South Carolina has played a very tough schedule so far, and moves into our Top 25 after the Georgia win.
Boise State, Arizona State, SMU, Baylor, Minnesota, and Appalachian State all make the AP Top 25 but do not appear in our rankings. Baylor was in our Top 25 last week, but survived in OT against Texas Tech, lowering their predictive rating.
Conference | 1st Favorite | Odds to Win | 2nd Favorite | Odds to Win | 3rd Favorite | Odds to Win |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACC | Clemson | 90% | No Carolina | 3% | Virginia | 3% |
Big 12 | Oklahoma | 72% | Texas | 11% | Iowa State | 8% |
Big Ten | Ohio State | 60% | Wisconsin | 31% | Penn State | 8% |
Pac 12 | Oregon | 56% | Utah | 23% | USC | 13% |
SEC | Alabama | 57% | Georgia | 18% | LSU | 13% |
AAC | Cincinnati | 51% | SMU | 11% | Memphis | 11% |
C USA | Fla Atlantic | 43% | Southern Miss | 17% | La Tech | 16% |
MAC | Western Michigan | 31% | Ohio | 17% | Toledo | 15% |
MWC | Boise State | 56% | Utah State | 12% | Hawaii | 11% |
Sun Belt | Appalachian St | 55% | La Lafayette | 32% | Arkansas St | 8% |
The MAC remains the most wide open conferences, with no team having over a 35% chance of winning the conference. The ACC remains the least wide open, as Clemson has the conference on lockdown, and it would require a big upset in the title game to knock them out.
While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.
Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.
Rank | Team | Conference | Rating | Bowl Eligible | Bowl Eligible Change | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 | S Carolina | SEC | 11.6 | 80% | 39% | W at Georgia 20-17 |
96 | W Kentucky | CUSA | -9.1 | 83% | 29% | W vs. Army 17-8 |
66 | Louisville | ACC | -0.5 | 65% | 29% | W at Wake Forest 62-59 |
104 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | -11.3 | 81% | 26% | W at Coastal Car 31-21 |
103 | N Illinois | MAC | -10.7 | 37% | 22% | W at Ohio 39-36 |
93 | Florida Intl | CUSA | -8.7 | 68% | 20% | W vs. Charlotte 48-23 |
94 | Ball State | MAC | -8.7 | 70% | 20% | W at E Michigan 29-23 |
119 | Nevada | Mountain West | -19.4 | 43% | 18% | W vs. San Jose St 41-38 |
101 | LA Monroe | Sun Belt | -10.6 | 44% | 18% | W at Texas State 24-14 |
110 | Kent State | MAC | -12.9 | 49% | 17% | W at Akron 26-3 |
South Carolina went from being very questionable to qualify for a bowl game to very likely, thanks to the huge win over Georgia. Louisville also got a big win over Wake Forest that now has them more likely than not to get to 6 wins on the season.
While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.
For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.
Rank | Team | Conference | 1 or 0 Losses |
---|---|---|---|
4 | Clemson | ACC | 96% |
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 90% |
2 | Alabama | SEC | 90% |
8 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 81% |
3 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 81% |
26 | Boise State | Mountain West | 74% |
5 | Penn State | Big Ten | 57% |
6 | LSU | SEC | 57% |
42 | App State | Sun Belt | 56% |
24 | Cincinnati | AAC | 34% |
11 | Notre Dame | Independent I-A | 29% |
13 | Utah | Pac-12 | 27% |
10 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 26% |
7 | Georgia | SEC | 23% |
34 | S Methodist | AAC | 23% |
Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama remain at the top when it comes to chances of being in the playoff. Oklahoma looks like the fourth option right now, especially with Georgia’s loss. That result also benefits the Big Ten indirectly. If Wisconsin and Ohio State win all their other games and split against each other (in the regular season and Big Ten title game) then both will be attractive playoff options.
Enjoy college football Week 8, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 8 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.
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