On Wisconsin, Off Georgia — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin have been rolling over teams in 2019 (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 8 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 8 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 8

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
111UNLVMountain West-13.64.54.31.5W at Vanderbilt 34-10
125Bowling GrnMAC-24.64.23.51.4W vs. Toledo 20-7
13UtahPac-1217.03.89.90.7W at Oregon St 52-7
59PurdueBig Ten1.23.54.31.1W vs. Maryland 40-14
46NavyAAC4.33.58.01.0W at Tulsa 45-17
41MinnesotaBig Ten5.43.18.40.9W vs. Nebraska 34-7
3WisconsinBig Ten29.22.911.00.3W vs. Michigan St 38-0
25S CarolinaSEC11.62.56.41.2W at Georgia 20-17
10OregonPac-1220.72.49.80.3W vs. Colorado 45-3
93Florida IntlCUSA-8.72.46.10.6W vs. Charlotte 48-23
84LA TechCUSA-6.02.49.00.3W vs. U Mass 69-21

UNLV was the biggest mover of the week, winning comfortably at Vanderbilt. Oregon and Utah both climb in the rankings and are now both inside the Top 13. South Carolina got the big upset at Georgia. Minnesota and Wisconsin both moved to 3-0 in the Big Ten Western Division, and could be heading for a big rivalry showdown at the end of the season.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 8

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
61ArizonaPac-120.5-2.25.7-0.6L vs. Washington 51-27
72ColoradoPac-12-1.9-2.44.4-0.5L at Oregon 45-3
56NebraskaBig Ten1.8-2.55.5-0.8L at Minnesota 34-7
21Michigan StBig Ten13.6-2.57.4-0.3L at Wisconsin 38-0
7GeorgiaSEC24.0-3.19.7-1.2L vs. S Carolina 20-17
86TulsaAAC-6.5-3.33.4-0.8L vs. Navy 45-17
100VanderbiltSEC-10.6-3.82.5-1.2L vs. UNLV 34-10
43MarylandBig Ten4.6-3.85.1-1.1L at Purdue 40-14
82Oregon StPac-12-5.4-3.93.1-0.6L vs. Utah 52-7
83ToledoMAC-5.6-4.07.9-1.5L at Bowling Grn 20-7

Remember when Nebraska was a hot breakout candidate? Yeah, not so much. Score this one for recent program history and performance matters. Getting to six wins will be an achievement now (currently 4-3, but Nebraska is an underdog according to our ratings for each of the last five games).

Arizona and Colorado both suffered big losses in the Pac-12 to conference favorites and saw their ratings take a hit. Is there any team more inconsistent than Maryland? They are now 3-3, with all three wins by at least 40 points and now two of their losses by more than 20.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

RankTeamConferenceRating
1Ohio StateBig Ten36.9
2AlabamaSEC33.3
3WisconsinBig Ten29.2
4ClemsonACC26.9
5Penn StateBig Ten25.8
6LSUSEC25.5
7GeorgiaSEC24.0
8OklahomaBig 1223.8
9AuburnSEC21.6
10OregonPac-1220.7
11Notre DameIndependent I-A19.9
12FloridaSEC17.4
13UtahPac-1217.0
14MichiganBig Ten16.1
15WashingtonPac-1215.7
16Central FLAAC15.5
17IowaBig Ten14.7
18TexasBig 1214.7
19MissouriSEC13.8
20Texas A&MSEC13.6
21Michigan StBig Ten13.6
22Iowa StateBig 1213.1
23USCPac-1212.3
24CincinnatiAAC11.7
25S CarolinaSEC11.6

Wisconsin makes a big move up to No. 3 with a shutout of Michigan State. We are heading for a big meeting on October 26th between Wisconsin and Ohio State. Georgia drops all the way to No. 7 with their loss at home to South Carolina. Oklahoma solidified their standing in the Big 12 with a win over Texas. South Carolina has played a very tough schedule so far, and moves into our Top 25 after the Georgia win.

Boise State, Arizona State, SMU, Baylor, Minnesota, and Appalachian State all make the AP Top 25 but do not appear in our rankings. Baylor was in our Top 25 last week, but survived in OT against Texas Tech, lowering their predictive rating.

CFB Week 8 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference1st FavoriteOdds to Win2nd FavoriteOdds to Win3rd FavoriteOdds to Win
ACCClemson90%No Carolina3%Virginia3%
Big 12Oklahoma72%Texas11%Iowa State8%
Big TenOhio State60%Wisconsin31%Penn State8%
Pac 12Oregon56%Utah23%USC13%
SECAlabama57%Georgia18%LSU13%
AACCincinnati51%SMU11%Memphis11%
C USAFla Atlantic43%Southern Miss17%La Tech16%
MACWestern Michigan31%Ohio17%Toledo15%
MWCBoise State56%Utah State12%Hawaii11%
Sun BeltAppalachian St55%La Lafayette32%Arkansas St8%

The MAC remains the most wide open conferences, with no team having over a 35% chance of winning the conference. The ACC remains the least wide open, as Clemson has the conference on lockdown, and it would require a big upset in the title game to knock them out.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

RankTeamConferenceRatingBowl EligibleBowl Eligible ChangeResult
25S CarolinaSEC11.680%39%W at Georgia 20-17
96W KentuckyCUSA-9.183%29%W vs. Army 17-8
66LouisvilleACC-0.565%29%W at Wake Forest 62-59
104Georgia StateSun Belt-11.381%26%W at Coastal Car 31-21
103N IllinoisMAC-10.737%22%W at Ohio 39-36
93Florida IntlCUSA-8.768%20%W vs. Charlotte 48-23
94Ball StateMAC-8.770%20%W at E Michigan 29-23
119NevadaMountain West-19.443%18%W vs. San Jose St 41-38
101LA MonroeSun Belt-10.644%18%W at Texas State 24-14
110Kent StateMAC-12.949%17%W at Akron 26-3

South Carolina went from being very questionable to qualify for a bowl game to very likely, thanks to the huge win over Georgia. Louisville also got a big win over Wake Forest that now has them more likely than not to get to 6 wins on the season.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

RankTeamConference1 or 0 Losses
4ClemsonACC96%
1Ohio StateBig Ten90%
2AlabamaSEC90%
8OklahomaBig 1281%
3WisconsinBig Ten81%
26Boise StateMountain West74%
5Penn StateBig Ten57%
6LSUSEC57%
42App StateSun Belt56%
24CincinnatiAAC34%
11Notre DameIndependent I-A29%
13UtahPac-1227%
10OregonPac-1226%
7GeorgiaSEC23%
34S MethodistAAC23%

Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama remain at the top when it comes to chances of being in the playoff. Oklahoma looks like the fourth option right now, especially with Georgia’s loss. That result also benefits the Big Ten indirectly. If Wisconsin and Ohio State win all their other games and split against each other (in the regular season and Big Ten title game) then both will be attractive playoff options.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 8, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 8 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.