Baylor, Iowa State Make Big Moves — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

Head coach Matt Campbell and Iowa State are back in our Top 25 (Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 7 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

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College Football Week 7 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 7

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
71Oregon StPac-12-1.53.43.71.2W at UCLA 48-31
22Iowa StateBig 1211.73.37.41.0W vs. TX Christian 49-24
25BaylorBig 129.23.29.11.1W at Kansas St 31-12
81VA TechACC-3.63.16.01.2W at Miami (FL) 42-35
109Georgia StateSun Belt-13.12.95.71.2W vs. Arkansas St 52-38
108Central MichMAC-13.12.86.11.0W vs. E Michigan 42-16
29MarylandBig Ten8.52.86.20.5W at Rutgers 48-7
100Florida IntlCUSA-11.12.65.50.5W vs. U Mass 44-0
105W KentuckyCUSA-11.42.45.70.8W at Old Dominion 20-3
59MississippiSEC1.12.24.70.5W vs. Vanderbilt 31-6

Oregon State got a big win at UCLA for their second win of the season. That’s as many wins already as the Beavers had all of last year, and more than they had two years ago.

Baylor and Iowa State both got big wins in the Big 12, with Iowa State winning by 25 over TCU and Baylor going to Kansas State and winning by 19. Baylor joins Oklahoma and Texas (who meet this week) as the only remaining undefeated teams in the conference.

Maryland is on quite the roller coaster in 2019. They have now won all three games by at least 40 points, but also lost by 59 points a week ago to Penn State.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 7

RankTeamConferenceRatingRating ChangeTotal WinsTotal Wins ChangeResult
110E MichiganMAC-13.7-4.06.2-1.2L at Central Mich 42-16
86Arkansas StSun Belt-6.4-3.06.8-1.1L at Georgia State 52-38
52Kansas StBig 122.7-3.06.0-1.1L vs. Baylor 31-12
33TX ChristianBig 127.2-2.86.3-0.9L at Iowa State 49-24
119RutgersBig Ten-19.0-2.81.7-0.3L vs. Maryland 48-7
69UCLAPac-12-1.0-2.83.0-1.2L vs. Oregon St 48-31
36Miami (FL)ACC6.4-2.66.6-1.3L vs. VA Tech 42-35
130U MassIndependent I-A-38.2-2.51.3-0.1L at Florida Intl 44-0
126ConnecticutAAC-24.3-2.52.3-0.4L vs. S Florida 48-22
92IllinoisBig Ten-8.0-2.53.5-0.5L at Minnesota 40-17

The temporary feeling that Chip Kelly’s UCLA team was turning things around didn’t last long. The loss at home to Oregon State dropped the Bruins to 1-5 for the year.

UMass has already been locked into the No. 130 (aka, last place) spot in FCS, and their rating is dropping even further, as they are now more than 7 points worse than every other FCS team.

Meanwhile, Rutgers is all the way down to No. 119 in the rankings after getting crushed by Maryland. That easily puts them as the lowest rated team from a Power Five conference.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a teams win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

RankTeamConferenceRating
1Ohio StateBig Ten37.5
2AlabamaSEC32.5
3GeorgiaSEC27.0
4ClemsonACC26.7
5WisconsinBig Ten26.3
6Penn StateBig Ten26.3
7LSUSEC25.7
8OklahomaBig 1224.4
9AuburnSEC21.3
10Notre DameIndependent I-A20.9
11OregonPac-1218.3
12FloridaSEC17.6
13MichiganBig Ten16.5
14Michigan StBig Ten16.1
15Central FLAAC15.5
16IowaBig Ten14.6
17TexasBig 1214.4
18MissouriSEC14.3
19WashingtonPac-1214.2
20Texas A&MSEC13.9
21UtahPac-1213.2
22Iowa StateBig 1211.7
23CincinnatiAAC10.6
24USCPac-1210.6
25BaylorBig 129.2

Who is better, the Big Ten or the SEC? Six Big Ten teams and seven teams from the SEC make our Top 25, though one of the SEC teams is ineligible for a bowl game (Missouri). We could see several compelling bowl matchups between those two conferences.

Only 2.6 points separate No. 3 Georgia and No. 8 Oklahoma, and that’s less than the difference between Oklahoma and No. 9 Auburn. So there’s a pretty close pack at the top of college football right now.

Boise State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Arizona State, SMU, and Memphis are ranked in the AP Top 25 but do not make our list this week. Three of those teams did not play last week (Arizona State, Wake Forest, Virginia), two of the others played teams ranked outside our Top 100 (Boise State over UNLV, Memphis over LA-Monroe) and SMU won by 6 points at home over now-No. 79 Tulsa.

CFB Week 7 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

ConferenceFavoriteOdds to Win2nd FavoriteOdds to Win3rd FavoriteOdds to Win
ACCClemson88%Virginia5%North Carolina3%
Big 12Oklahoma68%Texas16%Baylor7%
Big TenOhio State67%Wisconsin23%Penn State9%
Pac 12Oregon55%Utah16%USC15%
SECAlabama48%Georgia32%LSU13%
AmericanCincinnati40%Memphis16%UCF16%
C USAFlorida Atlantic44%North Texas15%Southern Miss12%
MACToledo41%Ohio23%Western Michigan12%
MWCBoise State44%Hawaii18%Utah State15%
Sun BeltLa Lafayette45%Appalachian State43%Arkansas St5%

Cincinnati made the big move this week, beating UCF to move into the favorite’s role in the American Conference.

Oklahoma and Texas, the two favorites in the Big 12, meet this week in the Red River Rivalry game. The top two teams in our projections in terms of odds to win the Mountain West, Hawaii and Boise State, also play head-to-head this week.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

RankTeamConferenceRatingBowl EligibleBowl Eligible ChangeResult
81VA TechACC-3.663%37%W at Miami (FL) 42-35
38StanfordPac-126.073%32%W vs. Washington 23-13
109Georgia StateSun Belt-13.155%31%W vs. Arkansas St 52-38
108Central MichMAC-13.168%30%W vs. E Michigan 42-16
62Texas TechBig 120.456%27%W vs. Oklahoma St 45-35
105W KentuckyCUSA-11.453%21%W at Old Dominion 20-3
96Ball StateMAC-9.450%21%W at N Illinois 27-20
22Iowa StateBig 1211.793%20%W vs. TX Christian 49-24
51ArizonaPac-122.770%19%W at Colorado 35-30
103Middle TennCUSA-11.248%18%W vs. Marshall 24-13

Virginia Tech got a big bounce-back win over Miami to move to 3-2 and revive their hopes of getting to a bowl game. Stanford moved to 3-3 with an upset win over Washington. Texas Tech got their biggest win of the season by beating Oklahoma State to get to 3-2.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

RankTeamConference1 or 0 Losses
4ClemsonACC95%
1Ohio StateBig Ten92%
2AlabamaSEC81%
8OklahomaBig 1273%
3GeorgiaSEC71%
5WisconsinBig Ten63%
32Boise StateMountain West58%
7LSUSEC49%
6Penn StateBig Ten43%
47App StateSun Belt30%
43LA LafayetteSun Belt30%
10Notre DameIndependent I-A27%
28MemphisAAC26%
35S MethodistAAC26%
11OregonPac-1220%
72ToledoMAC20%

Six Power Five schools have at least a 50% chance or more of getting to 11-1 in the regular season. After that, only two others (LSU and Penn State) have at least a 30% chance of getting to 11 wins before a conference title game, so that right now represents your most likely CFB Playoff contenders.

Oregon is lurking with a 20% chance of running the table before the Pac-12 title game, and represents that conference’s best hope to get in the playoff discussion.

Boise State continues to lead all other schools outside the Power Five in odds of getting t0 11-1 or better. Memphis and SMU (both undefeated in the American Conference) are also in the mix.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 7, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 7 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.

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