Clemson Stumbles, Ohio State Rolls — College Football Week 6 Rankings & Projections (2019)

October 1, 2019 - by Jason Lisk

Clemson has a a 98% chance of reaching the college football playoff in our predictions

Trevor Lawrence and Clemson are heavy favorites to reach the playoff (Photo by Dannie Walls/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 6 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

College Football Week 6 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 6

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
5	Penn State	Big Ten	26.3	7.2	10.2	1.1	W at Maryland 59-0
64	Hawaii	Mountain West	-0.5	6.1	9.1	1.6	W at Nevada 54-3
23	Cincinnati	AAC	10.7	5.9	9.0	1.3	W at Marshall 52-14
34	Duke	ACC	7.1	4.2	7.6	1.3	W at VA Tech 45-10
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	37.8	3.7	11.5	0.3	W at Nebraska 48-7
94	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.2	3.6	6.1	1.1	W vs. Buffalo 34-20
77	Wyoming	Mountain West	-3.1	3.5	7.8	0.7	W vs. UNLV 53-17
88	Arkansas	SEC	-6.3	3.4	3.4	0.2	L vs. Texas A&M 31-27 (N)
39	N Carolina	ACC	5.7	2.8	6.8	0.6	L vs. Clemson 21-20
18	Iowa	Big Ten	14.6	2.8	8.9	0.3	W vs. Middle Tenn 48-3

Penn State is the biggest riser of the week after crushing Maryland on the road on Friday night by a score of 59-0. This came in a game where Penn State was only expected to win by 1.7 points after accounting for home field in our ratings. The Nittany Lions move up to No. 5 in our rankings, and are less than a point behind defending national champion Clemson after last week’s results.

How impressive has Ohio State been this year? They have been in our top 10 biggest risers for three weeks in a row. After the 48-7 beatdown that the Buckeyes put on them in Lincoln, Nebraska fans that wagered on a national title can officially put those betting slips in the recycling bin.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 6

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
40	Maryland	Big Ten	5.7	-8.2	5.7	-1.8	L vs. Penn State 59-0
122	Nevada	Mountain West	-20.3	-5.8	4.8	-1.1	L vs. Hawaii 54-3
90	VA Tech	ACC	-6.7	-5.1	4.7	-1.1	L vs. Duke 45-10
87	Marshall	CUSA	-6	-5	7.2	-1.2	L vs. Cincinnati 52-14
4	Clemson	ACC	26.7	-3.8	11.7	-0.1	W at N Carolina 21-20
95	S Florida	AAC	-9.6	-3.5	3.5	-1	L vs. S Methodist 48-21
28	Miss State	SEC	8.9	-3.3	6.9	-0.6	L at Auburn 56-23
7	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25	-3.1	10.5	-0.3	W vs. Northwestern 24-15
103	GA Tech	ACC	-11.1	-2.9	2.5	-0.5	L at Temple 24-2
119	UNLV	Mountain West	-17.2	-2.8	3	-0.8	L at Wyoming 53-17

Clemson survived when North Carolina missed on a two-point conversion attempt, but the predictive rankings are driven by margins of victory, and the Tigers dropped down to No. 4 in our rankings. Clemson entered this game as a 27.5-point favorite at North Carolina, and were expected to win by 24.1 points in our ratings.

A couple of Mountain West blowouts also make the list, as Nevada and UNLV were on the wrong end of some beatdowns.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has fallen on hard times, and a 35-point loss to Duke is the latest indignity. The Hokies were No. 31 in our preseason rankings and have dropped all the way to No. 90.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a teams win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	37.8
2	Alabama	SEC	32.3
3	Georgia	SEC	27.3
4	Clemson	ACC	26.7
5	Penn State	Big Ten	26.3
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	25.7
7	Wisconsin	Big Ten	25
8	LSU	SEC	24.9
9	Auburn	SEC	23.1
10	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	21.3
11	Oregon	Pac-12	19.7
12	Florida	SEC	16.4
13	Michigan	Big Ten	16.3
14	Central FL	AAC	16
15	Washington	Pac-12	16
16	Michigan St	Big Ten	15.8
17	Texas	Big 12	15.1
18	Iowa	Big Ten	14.6
19	Texas A&M	SEC	14.1
20	Utah	Pac-12	13.5
21	Missouri	SEC	13.1
22	Oklahoma St	Big 12	10.9
23	Cincinnati	AAC	10.7
24	USC	Pac-12	10.6
25	TX Christian	Big 12	10

Ohio State had already moved to No. 1 in our rankings last week, and further solidified their hold on the top spot with another impressive road performance. They are only No. 4 in the AP rankings this week, as inertia there is keeping them from moving higher. Even with the preseason ratings still playing a role (Ohio State started the season ranked No. 5), Ohio State has continued to climb in our ratings based on results.

Clemson, meanwhile, drops to No. 4 in our rankings and is less than two points ahead of the next four teams below them. They still have great odds of making the playoffs because of the weak ACC, though a loss may doom them because of strength of schedule compared to other top contenders.

Last week, we highlighted California as the AP ranked team rated lowest in our ratings, and they promptly lost at home to Arizona State to drop out of the AP rankings this week. The Sun Devils in turn jump into the AP rankings at No. 21, while they are down at No. 45 in our rankings. They aren’t the lowest ranked team in our rankings to get voted into the AP Top 25, though. Wake Forest has moved into the AP rankings at No. 22 after getting to 5-0 with a road win at Boston College. Our rankings have Wake at No. 51.

CFB Week 6 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	86%	Duke	4%	Virginia	3%
Big 12	Oklahoma	69%	Texas	16%	Oklahoma St	5%
Big Ten	Ohio State	68%	Wisconsin	19%	Penn State	9%
Pac 12	Oregon	48%	Washington	18%	Utah	16%
SEC	Alabama	41%	Georgia	36%	LSU	10%
American	UCF	40%	Cincinnati	21%	SMU	14%
C USA	Florida Atlantic	45%	North Texas	14%	Southern Miss	13%
MAC	Toledo	28%	Western Michigan	23%	Ohio	16%
MWC	Boise State	41%	Utah State	19%	Hawaii	17%
Sun Belt	Appalachian State	45%	La Lafayette	37%	Arkansas State	12%

Alabama’s odds to win the SEC continue to drop gradually. That’s not because Alabama has played poorly, but primarily because LSU and Auburn look better than expected as the season continues, raising the odds that Alabama gets upset by either of them. Georgia is now given a 36% chance compared to 41% for Alabama to win the conference based on the difference in their schedules to get to the title game.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
94	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.2	66%	30%	W vs. Buffalo 34-20
34	Duke	ACC	7.1	91%	26%	W at VA Tech 45-10
60	Minnesota	Big Ten	0.8	89%	24%	W at Purdue 38-31
50	Florida St	ACC	3.3	74%	21%	W vs. NC State 31-13
26	S Carolina	SEC	9.0	40%	18%	W vs. Kentucky 24-7
45	Arizona St	Pac-12	4.6	87%	16%	W at California 24-17
108	W Kentucky	CUSA	-13.8	33%	15%	W vs. UAB 20-13
41	Houston	AAC	5.7	66%	15%	W at North Texas 46-25
39	N Carolina	ACC	5.7	83%	15%	L vs. Clemson 21-20
64	Hawaii	Mountain West	-0.5	99%	11%	W at Nevada 54-3

Duke and Minnesota both got big conference road wins that improved their odds dramatically. Florida State has rebounded with consecutive conference wins to get to 3-2. Next up for the Seminoles: Clemson.

North Carolina is the only team to make this list after a loss last week, as their predictive rating improved with the close loss to Clemson. South Carolina got a win they really needed against Kentucky, because their future strength of schedule is the 13th most difficult in the country.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Team	Conference	11-1 or Better
Clemson	ACC	96%
Ohio State	Big Ten	91%
Alabama	SEC	80%
Oklahoma	Big 12	76%
Georgia	SEC	70%
Wisconsin	Big Ten	57%
Boise State	Mountain West	53%
Penn State	Big Ten	44%
LSU	SEC	43%
S Methodist	AAC	32%
App State	Sun Belt	31%
Notre Dame	Independent I-A	30%
LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	26%
Central FL	AAC	25%
Auburn	SEC	24%
Memphis	AAC	23%
Oregon	Pac-12	21%

Clemson narrowly survived this week, but they are still the most likely team to finish at 11-1 or better thanks to their schedule. Six different Power Five are more likely than not to be 11-1 or better according to our projections.

Penn State and Auburn also saw their chances of being in the title mix increase with big performances last week.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 6, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 6 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.